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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
12 minutes ago, linux said:

It seems that in terms of the whole electoral universe it all just boils down to Independents and who they pick.

Also, duh

Biden won them 53-44 and that's why he won AZ.  NYT/Siena has Harris winning them 49-40 and trailing by 5 in this poll, which doesn't smell right (to me).  The Siena poll has her doing worse with Dems (Biden +94, Harris +84) and Trump doing better with GOP (Trump+81, Trump +87 this time) 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also, duh

Biden won them 53-44 and that's why he won AZ.  NYT/Siena has Harris winning them 49-40 and trailing by 5 in this poll, which doesn't smell right (to me).  The Siena poll has her doing worse with Dems (Biden +94, Harris +84) and Trump doing better with GOP (Trump+81, Trump +87 this time) 

Yeah, that shit absolutely doesn't pass the smell test. There's tons of evidence that Dems are highly motivated and that many Republicans aren't. 

These guys are just aiming for topline results that feel right to them and if they've gotta fuck with all the underlying assumptions to heavily bias the GOP they'll do it. 

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Posted
43 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If it is 51-49 (which looks likely unless DMP, Allred or Tester pull out a miracle), you offer Lisa Murkowski literally anything in the world to go independent and caucus with the Dems.  Natural resources chair, drill ANWR, peg Tim Walz every morning on the Senate floor - give it to her. 

She has no love for the GOP or Trump and she'd probably have just as good a chance her next election running as an independent with Dem backing.  Aka, we won't put up a candidate against you and you have our backing in the Tundra primary and general. 

She only won in 2022 by 7.4 after the Dem was eliminated.  If you gave her the Dems' total in the first round, she would have won without going to RCV.  And Alaska just keeps creeping a tiny bit bluer. 

Flip Murkowski by opening up ANWR, turning Alaska more blue, while also warming it up that much faster, bringing in more people, bumping those 3 EVs to 5+, making it that much more important. 

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

The narrative that Harris and the Democratic party are slipping among youth or black voters is media driven bullshit.

I have been SCREAMING that the large sample size polls of young voters, black voters and Latino voters don’t show her performing any worse than 2020 and in some cases, better.  

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

The narrative that Harris and the Democratic party are slipping among youth or black voters is media driven bullshit.

Is this specific to national polling?  When the same firms conduct swing state polls are they using similar methodology prone to the same under-representation?

This seems to point to an ass kicking which I can't get myself to believe yet.

Posted
15 hours ago, Pancho said:

Would be crazy to lose PA but win Florida 

I'd take the trade all day every day.

FL is growing, 21 EC votes in 1988, now 30. PA 25 to 19 over the same period.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Is this specific to national polling?  When the same firms conduct swing state polls are they using similar methodology prone to the same under-representation?

This seems to point to an ass kicking which I can't get myself to believe yet.

Yes, I've been saying it last year: The only piece of data that looks good for Donald Trump is polling.

Posted
3 hours ago, Pancho said:

👀

 

 

I'm not sure Hillary thought Florida was in play in 2016. She sure didn't think the blue wall was in play. Point being I'm not sure I trust the instincts of Florida Democrats any more than I'd trust the Texas democratic leadership. 

2 hours ago, LCHorn said:

#1, I don’t think more money helps Trump anyway.  His cake is baked (you said it on another post and I’ve read it elsewhere-his ceiling is his floor).  
 

#2, the Trump campaign is comparatively small with fewer satellite offices; they pretty have to spend their money on traditional and digital advertising because they aren’t set up to pivot elsewhere.  
 

I’m sure this is over-reading into it, but I’d presume there’s some realistic reasons to spend in Florida (defend abortion rights) and maybe subordinate but also satisfying reasons (Mar-A-Lago tv’s running pro-Dem ads, maybe trying to shape now what a post-DeSantis Florida looks like).  

While I mostly agree that more money won't help trump, that being said, I do think them eliminating the door knocking and get out the vote offices and efforts was a huge fucking error. His support might be backed in, but getting a lot of idiots up and out to vote with a plan is NOT baked in whatsoever, imo. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Js1 said:

It would take a combo of states - MI + WI + one of PA/GA/NV/AZ

If NC, MI, WI all get called for Harris and Jon Ralston says Harris will win NV in his pre-Election Day prediction post, then you can take that to the bank. 

Has Ralston said this?

Posted
2 hours ago, Foosters said:

I had a similar conversation with my dad. White man, 70's, O&G background. He recounted 3 conversations he had in the past several weeks with 3 of his oldest friends - all who voted for Trump in both 16 and 20. All 3 are sitting this one out, including the one guy who had previously told him he'd "die before he ever voted for a Democrat." Hilariously, they all told him that they now realize that they have to excise Trumpism from the GOP. LOL, good luck.

Just curious, what do you think was the tipping point for the 3 old dudes not voting for Trump?

Posted
1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

So if we have an unsafe election because of magat dipshit traitors, then they won’t certify it?

It'll be blamed on antifa.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, quigley said:

Just curious, what do you think was the tipping point for the 3 old dudes not voting for Trump?

Not sure there was a tipping point. More so a slow realization that he's toxic to the national party and aims of the GOP, accompanied by his debate performance and overall cognitive decline. These men weren't MAGA, but were happy to vote for MAGA based on a mix of classic, culture war issues and tax cuts. 2/3 are actually wealthy enough to be concerned about policies impacting the .1%

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Posted
17 minutes ago, quigley said:

Has Ralston said this?

Ralston does his prediction either the Sunday or Monday before the Election. 

I'm saying if Harris win NC + MI + WI on Election Night AND Saint Jon of Nevada has made his prediction that Harris is going to win NV, you can go to bed knowing she has won even if she hasn't locked up 270 yet bc of PA/GA/AZ/NV.  

I *think* NC, MI, WI can be called on Election Night and PA/GA will have specific trends for Trump or Harris to know who is winning, but NV/AZ can drag for days.  But Saint John isn't wrong when he finishes his prediction - the early vote in Nevada basically tells the entire story for the state. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, quigley said:

Just curious, what do you think was the tipping point for the 3 old dudes not voting for Trump?

Probably wanted to see their children and grandkids again.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Foosters said:

I had a similar conversation with my dad. White man, 70's, O&G background. He recounted 3 conversations he had in the past several weeks with 3 of his oldest friends - all who voted for Trump in both 16 and 20. All 3 are sitting this one out, including the one guy who had previously told him he'd "die before he ever voted for a Democrat." Hilariously, they all told him that they now realize that they have to excise Trumpism from the GOP. LOL, good luck.

I’m skeptical that some will really sit out. Regardless I imagine there are more than a few Republican voters who know some of trumps economic talking points are bs. Whether it’s the idea that we need to triple natural gas extraction to  across-the-board tariffs helping the consumer.

These gop voters try to convince themselves that Trump doesn’t really mean that. I recall an older voter from a 2016 interview that Trump didn’t mean a literal wall with Mexico, it was only a metaphor.

 

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Posted
36 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm not sure Hillary thought Florida was in play in 2016. She sure didn't think the blue wall was in play. Point being I'm not sure I trust the instincts of Florida Democrats any more than I'd trust the Texas democratic leadership. 

While I mostly agree that more money won't help trump, that being said, I do think them eliminating the door knocking and get out the vote offices and efforts was a huge fucking error. His support might be backed in, but getting a lot of idiots up and out to vote with a plan is NOT baked in whatsoever, imo. 

The problem wasn't the local Democrats in 2016 - it was all Hillary's campaign and their arrogance. The local parties in Michigan and Wisconsin were sounding the alarm bells and Hillary's campaign ignored them. 

Then election night happened.

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Posted
51 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Polling companies have hype men now.

this is the world we chose when we decided that anyone and everyone can access the internet, and worse add content to it. 

Counterpoint: it also resulted in an infinite cascade of pics and vids of tits.

So....on balance.....titties.

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Posted
50 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Polling companies have hype men now.

this is the world we chose when we decided that anyone and everyone can access the internet, and worse add content to it. 

 

Quote

Response rates. You might think that Mr. Trump’s gains might be driven by big changes in the likelihood of Republicans or Democrats to respond to a poll. But the balance of response rates by party and race stayed exceptionally similar to what they were in August, even as the results were very different. To take Arizona, where our results swung the most: In August, 2.4 percent of white Democrats responded compared with 2.4 percent of white Republicans; in this poll, 2.5 percent of white Democrats responded, compared with 2.5 percent of white Republicans. Whatever’s driving Mr. Trump’s gains, it’s not evident in the response rates by party.

from https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/upshot/trump-harris-sun-belt-polls.html

In a past life, I did survey design. In explaining the variability in the NYT/Siena poll, Nate Cohn was discussing the response rate to their calls. Their response rate is 2.5%. Big numbers can overcome very low response rate, but, if I recall correctly, 500-1000 responses "high quality" polls get isn't enough. These people aren't stupid, and I'm sure they have models that can correct for stuff that are well beyond my expertise.

But if this is typical of political polling response rate, current political polling is mostly trash. The most heartening thing I take from the look underneath the hood that NYT provided is their transparency. It also explains the rationale other election modelers use for including non-polling data (fund-raising, economic data, eg).

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Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I've been told that if Harris loses Arizona that we are all to blame Zonahorn directly. 

My ballot gets mailed out in a couple weeks, looking forward to casting it

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Posted
1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

The narrative that Harris and the Democratic party are slipping among youth or black voters is media driven bullshit.

The fact that the polls are doing sample size statistics is what makes them completely unreliable now. They aren't even close and are borderline a waste of money outside of general sentiment for some demos. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Here’s what’s going to happen:

Trump is going to lose every swing state and Fla and Texas thereby getting his ass handed to him in electoral votes and cementing him as the true loser he is forever and always.

And Texas is going to win the SEC undefeated in its first year, once and for all exposing the myth of the SEC.

Thus two very important questions of our time will be answered definitively this fall. And all will be right with the world.

We will look back proudly on the Fall of 24 for a long, long time.

This would constitute a Democratic EV win of the SEC footprint, which would be hilarious.

Posted
17 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Who's underrating that? That's the closest thing to a chalk, generic D vs R presidential election in the current landscape.

Posted
2 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

I grew up in Alabama, traveled all over the FL Panhandle and some of the bleakest stretches of Mississippi and Louisiana, and even I was "impressed" by the Conroe area.

Yep I was born in FloriBama, i.e. the panhandle. Pensacola NAS. So I know where you're coming from on that. 

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