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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

he’s not talking about anything relevant to american voters. he never does. that’s the genius of his rallies and why he’ll probably keep doing them straight through the election. 

Well except for transgender folks.  Who are apparently extremely important to his voters, despite constituting less than 2% of the population.

And people who are that interested in a tiny fraction of the American people are also acutely interested in the dick size of long-dead golfers.

It really makes perfect sense when you think about it.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Posted
8 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

Faulkner is far from an unbiased questioner. Fox has her on because she’s African American and hates the Dems. Or hates the Dem for the money. I’ve watched her shows and I’ve never seen a fair question or comment out of her mouth.

There is zero chance that I could prove, via paperwork, my first couple of pre-college grad jobs. There are SS reports that show I have income but the source (employer) isn’t listed. For sentimental reasons, I wish I had kept the paystub just to remind myself how far I’ve come. I think the first job was $3.85/hr but could be slightly off.

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Posted
6 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Yep. Their playbook will be to repeat unsourced stories again and again. Get the average, low info GOP voter to start repeating that they heard Dems are up to their old tricks again.  Can’t trust the voting results unless Trump wins.

Fox News will start reporting the reports and quietly end the story that they working to verify the story. When in fact they’re not.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I think the first job was $3.85/hr but could be slightly off.

There you go bragging. My first job didn't have paychecks, because the owner put cash into pay envelopes, and it was a big deal when minimum wage rose to above $2.00/hr.

I do not have any of those pay envelopes, but my social security account says I earned $77 in 1973. 

Now this is how you do a humble brag!

full disclosure - my first job was pumping gas, washing windshields, stocking coolers, cleaning the bathrooms, and mopping floors (if it was the closing shift). And we got a free cookie and a candy bar, which was not reported for tax purposes. And we would take and extra coke (later it was a beer) which was not reported to ownership. Yes, I am a criminal, running loose in America, may god save my soul.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

 

Now this is how you do a humble brag!

 

No, pretty sure below is how you humblebrag

14 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Fuck that rotten brat and his horrible mom.  
I have no fucking chill about this. In 2020 my daughter (then 14) destroyed a neighbor’s Trump sign and I dragged her ass up on their front porch and made her apologize to their face and bring them a new one, too. 

 

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Posted

Poor Paige. 
 

Black people gage seen this type of behavior for mixed races folks for forever. Paige is not new with her “beliefs”

 

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Posted

So early signs look bad for Nevada, good for PA, and possibly promising for GA? Or am I misreading things?

And I'm guessing if one state is to look bad, Nevada would be the ideal choice (outside of # EVs) because it's probably least indicative of how other swing states are going?

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Posted
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Yes, I am a criminal, running loose in America, may god save my soul.

Impossible.  You didn’t just cross the border as an undocumented person. 

Posted
11 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

So early signs look bad for Nevada, good for PA, and possibly promising for GA? Or am I misreading things?

And I'm guessing if one state is to look bad, Nevada would be the ideal choice (outside of # EVs) because it's probably least indicative of how other swing states are going?

I don't think there is any real information on Nevada. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yep. Their playbook will be to repeat unsourced stories again and again. Get the average, low info GOP voter to start repeating that they heard Dems are up to their old tricks again.  Can’t trust the voting results unless Trump wins.

Fox News will start reporting the reports and quietly end the story that they working to verify the story. When in fact they’re not.

Exactly this.  Keep the cult frothing.  Perhaps incite them to violence.  Again.

Posted
10 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

So early signs look bad for Nevada, good for PA, and possibly promising for GA? Or am I misreading things?

And I'm guessing if one state is to look bad, Nevada would be the ideal choice (outside of # EVs) because it's probably least indicative of how other swing states are going?

I'm hyper focused on Georgia, so I will leave the other states to people that have been tracking that, but as to Georgia, it's looking really good.  I'll make a prediction, amateur is it maybe, come November 2nd (early voting ends on November 1).  Based on everything I am seeing right now, Dems are outpacing performance from 2020.  I'd like to see us build an even larger bank, and hopefully over the next 10 days we will bank it.  

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Posted
1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

200w.gif?cid=6c09b952vxecp0bo1jbkdburc8p

It was a legit good question, and until today, I hadn't broken that out, but as I said, after examining the data, the small 5% that this proved out to be isn't enough for me to be concerned about a false positive, not once you weigh out the other factors.  

Posted
6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think there is any real information on Nevada. 

It kind of bugs me how Ralston is currently treating it like a football game

ITS THE 2ND QUARTER AND THE GOP TAKES A 1 POINT LEAD AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Posted
12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Gen Z is built different. Her big sister was told explicitly to stay out of it. I said “your sister is in big trouble and I need you to stay out of it. She destroyed the Trump sign in front of that house around the corner,” and her sister goes “well she couldn’t just burn it down.”

 

a man sitting at a table with the words " just a straight shooter with upper management written all over him " above him

*her

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

FYI regarding gender breakdown of electorate historically. 
 

https://infogram.com/number-turnout-presidential-years-fig-2-1hmr6g7730lyo6n

 

2020 was 53.1% female.  So that 55.2 is a good number. 

It's because they're all showing up for Donald Trump, the protector of woman.  I mean, JD Vance wouldn't just go on TV and tell you that women don't care about abortion.  That would just be stupid. 

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Posted
43 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

 

Per @Helobious who brought up a good point about turn out and Republican early voting this time around skewing the numbers higher, this does not at all appear to be the case. Between the 79.1% retention and the 15.6% of new, that would leave only a differential margin of 5.3%.  

 

 

Joker No No No GIF - Joker No No No Nope - Discover & Share GIFs

tumblr_inline_mlbzn1MjIF1qz4rgp.gif (500×204)

36 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

So early signs look bad for Nevada, good for PA, and possibly promising for GA? Or am I misreading things?

And I'm guessing if one state is to look bad, Nevada would be the ideal choice (outside of # EVs) because it's probably least indicative of how other swing states are going?

I mean, Nevada could be indicative of Arizona as well. 

24 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think there is any real information on Nevada. 

I mean, outside of Ralson, hasn't the culinary union sounded some alarm as well?

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Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:I mean, outside of Ralson, hasn't the culinary union sounded some alarm as well?

I mean, outside of Ralson, hasn't the culinary union sounded some alarm as well?

For what it's worth, I've heard a couple reports on NPR (libs!!!) that the culinary union is all in for Harris.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

For what it's worth, I've heard a couple reports on NPR (libs!!!) that the culinary union is all in for Harris.

Oh, they are. They're all in for Harris, and they're knocking the doors. I was referring to hadnly the folks doing the work in/for the Culinary Union have remarked a lack of enthusiasm for Harris kind of a thing. 

https://thenevadaglobe.com/articles/culinary-union-warns-nevada-could-go-red/

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/01/g-s1-25479/nevada-latino-voters-trump-harris-culinary-union

One of those articles also cites Nevada's incumbant Democratic governor getting ousted in 2022 as a sign that things are different. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Oh, they are. They're all in for Harris, and they're knocking the doors. I was referring to hadnly the folks doing the work in/for the Culinary Union have remarked a lack of enthusiasm for Harris kind of a thing. 

Ah, I had not heard that.  One thing I learned about the culinary industry from Fight Club --

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Edited by South Austin
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

One of those articles also cites Nevada's incumbant Democratic governor getting ousted in 2022 as a sign that things are different. 

I don't think that can be construed to 2024.  He lost because of COVID restrictions he put in place in 2020, which, *gasp* disproportionately hurt the tourism industry in Nevada, which is like like 43% of the state's GDP and 1/3 of the workforce.  He absolutely got beaten over the head with that. And he only lost by like 16k votes.  It was not some blowout - like 1.5%

He lost, while CCM won re-election, 3 of 4 House Dems won, and the Dems kept their supermajority in the state legislature and won SOS, AG and Treasurer.  

She can win Nevada - it is going to depend on getting the ballots returned and how the independents vote this year.  Considering most independents are younger and persons of color, that does favor her. 

If Dems turn out their votes in Clark and Washoe, she wins.  If they lag, she loses.  

Edited by Js1
Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Do we have a prediction thread up yet? I’m almost ready to call my shot.

Start it. But I'm inclined to wait until November 1, because people will want to look at the EV data and there's still 10 good days of early voting before the small break before Election Day. 

Posted
7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Rich kids in Missouri stealing Harris/Walz signs.
 

 

The AUDACITY of the mom to bitch about liberals.

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Fuck that rotten brat and his horrible mom.  
I have no fucking chill about this. In 2020 my daughter (then 14) destroyed a neighbor’s Trump sign and I dragged her ass up on their front porch and made her apologize to their face and bring them a new one, too. 

Good parenting.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don't think that can be construed to 2024.  He lost because of COVID restrictions he put in place in 2020, which, *gasp* disproportionately hurt the tourism industry in Nevada, which is like like 43% of the state's GDP and 1/3 of the workforce.  He absolutely got beaten over the head with that. And he only lost by like 16k votes.  It was not some blowout - like 1.5%

He lost, while CCM won re-election, 3 of 4 House Dems won, and the Dems kept their supermajority in the state legislature and won SOS, AG and Treasurer.  

People also seem to split tickets disproportionally at the top, and people also seem to let memories linger. The poor economy isn't helping. The other article cited lingering weakness among the latino vote in Nevada. And lets not act like Biden whipped Nevada's ass, he won by 2%. It doesn't take much, and the early returns, albeit very limited, are concerning. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Start it. But I'm inclined to wait until November 1, because people will want to look at the EV data and there's still 10 good days of early voting before the small break before Election Day. 

If there’s not one up I’ll probably start one this weekend. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

People also seem to split tickets disproportionally at the top, and people also seem to let memories linger. The poor economy isn't helping. The other article cited lingering weakness among the latino vote in Nevada. And lets not act like Biden whipped Nevada's ass, he won by 2%. It doesn't take much, and the early returns, albeit very limited, are concerning. 

He also hit 50%, which Hillary did not do. But she won it.

It is always a bit of a knife fight, in the same way Wisconsin is (except when Obama was on the ballot, they voted for him like he was their senator)

IMG_2919.thumb.png.696214d19c1ee04239c5c3debe5a088f.png

Posted
3 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

wut

I should have been more clear. One of the links I posted cited several Latino people who were complaining about the economy and the cost of groceries and basically still giving Trump a pass on all of the negative effects of Covid, while tying them to Harris. It's a perception versus reality thing. 

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

He also hit 50%, which Hillary did not do. But she won it.

It is always a bit of a knife fight, in the same way Wisconsin is (except when Obama was on the ballot, they voted for him like he was their senator)

IMG_2919.thumb.png.696214d19c1ee04239c5c3debe5a088f.png

I realize Nevada is always close. It was super fucking close last time, as well. Which is why I'm sensitive to early returns, and why I am somewhat dismissive of the "I'll believe NV turns blue when it happens" angle that many posters here support, almost taking it for granted 

Posted
1 hour ago, hookem2010 said:

So early signs look bad for Nevada, good for PA, and possibly promising for GA? Or am I misreading things?

And I'm guessing if one state is to look bad, Nevada would be the ideal choice (outside of # EVs) because it's probably least indicative of how other swing states are going?

Looks like there was an update from Clark County and a lot of ballots weren't initially counted by the SOS.  Good news for Dems.

 

 

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Posted
Just now, Bevo in VA said:

Looks like there was an update from Clark County and a lot of ballots weren't initially counted by the SOS.  Good news for Dems.

 

 

Ralston click baiting? No!

I don’t think anyone is taking NV for granted, thought the GOP has been talking about it for 20 years now and failed to win it much, except for 2022 Gov and a decent stretch in the Obama era with Dean Heller and the Republican governor they all hate now because he’s not MAGA (forgot his name), but they have not won it at the presidential level since 2004. And let’s not forget the massive polling errors or else Harry Reid loses in 2010 and CCM loses in 2022 and Rosen barely wins in 2018 

If you tells Dems they could potentially trade NV for AZ/GA/NC in the long term, I think they’d be okay with it. It’s a lot of fighting over 6 EVs when you get a better return on AZ (11) and GA/NC (16) that favor the Dems more - big urban centers, more diversified suburbs, more college educated voters, etc. 

But Harris isn’t taking any of the 7 swing states for granted. She’s been to NV plenty. Obama was there over the weekend too. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Start it. But I'm inclined to wait until November 1, because people will want to look at the EV data and there's still 10 good days of early voting before the small break before Election Day. 

So you want to start a prediction thread at the start of the 4th quarter? Come on man, let's get risky.

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