Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

my longcat thoughts on texas 2025 going in...

i'm feeling optimistic for a really good team to develop over the season. that said, these number one rankings are more a combination of no one knowing wtf to expect from everyone this season because there are so few good qbs known at present...and arch. 12 draft picks cannot be overlooked.

 

the satyanash side of me looks at the following:

pointing out four starting offensive line and the tight end is not sufficient... it's a consensus all american left tackle and 6th year center...plus a millionth year tight end with incredible athleticism and instinct for steve's offense and soft spots in zone. five our of six guys across the front line makes me queasy. losing cam williams mainly means we pick up 100 yards a game in avoided false starts but the rest of them are total fucking unknown situations...and we have already lost one of them that had some meaningful playing time. lots of optimism for cruz, baker, goosby, campbell, robertson, neto, kibble, etc..., but gotta see it first. goosby is the only one of those that has really played some grown ass man football and did it well.

this will also be the first time since 2022 that we do not have at least two monster 4-6 years in the program seniors playing defensive tackle in the rotation. the thing that most people under appreciate about the last two years of texas football success is that no one...and i mean NO ONE could run between the tackles on us. murphy and sweat in 23, collins and broughton in 24. we had really nice rotation guys in there as well like norton as well but those four guys were fucking incredible and played like the 24 year old men they were dominating. it's why i wanted michigan so bad in 23...because i knew we could stop them. this is the first time we won't have that in a while. we are relying on older and less talented transfers combined with incredibly talented young guys. but dt is just a position that an 18/19 year old cannot dominate like murphy, sweat, collins, and broughton did. justus is likely to be great one day and i expect him to flash, but i'm worried about the between the tackles run defense for the first time since 2022. while i have zero concerns about de, part of what created opportunities for simmons and moore last year was the middle of the line having to commit to those dts. this is my biggest concern.

the other big thing is the loss of our thorpe award winning shut down guys in barron who had an absolutely incredible season last year. the way muhammad was getting abused by the playoffs last year and black's limited experience is worrisome. makuba's picks and enforcement of the middle is going to be missed as well...though i'm not as worried about safety as i am cb because i really believe in mcdonald.

still pissed at our on-the-field coaching from the end of both halves of the ohio state game. some of the stupidest shit ever seen. steve's ability to do the most brilliant stuff is only matched by his boneheaded wtf moments.

 

the surly football board koolaid cult member in me looks at the following:

with moore's return, if he and simmons are healthy, i'm not trading de with anyone. two studs plus solid depth. i think if hill, lefau, spence, tyanthony, all stay healthy, this is the best lb group we have had a long ass time. i really like safety...especially if derek williams is actually able to return at full capability. add gilbeau, johnson-rubell, and two potential superstars in jonah and filsaime to a budding star in mcdonald...i think safety is going to be a strong point. i love our defense going in...but cb and dt give me satyanash/greenspoint level concern.

i loved golden a whole hell of a lot but not that concerned about losing golden and bond. i think wr is going to be a strong point. young guys can make impact there and i think the incoming class is a great addition to wingo, moore, etc...  

i have optimism at qb. not trying to start a quinn ewers argument thread but i am hopeful that we are going to see better all-around qb play this year...but i was not the biggest fan of qe outside of a few games like michigan last year. i don't envy the bullshit that arch is going to have to put up with this year but i do believe he is going to be really good. but his success is obviously contingent on my one of my bigger concerns in oline and the complete unknown in the running game. if those two play at a high level, arch is going to go fucking crazy.

 

the very un-surly "i don't know wtf to expect" admitting vulnerability side of me looks at the following:

rb is an unknown outside of wisner obviously. just have to see what it looks like. love wisner...hoping we can help him out. losing blue in the passing game will be meaningful and we have to hope that steve can scheme some of these fish like terry to fill some of that void effectively.

no idea what jordan washington is going to do...but i have a hard time seeing him being as effective as the last two years of te play from gunnar and j'tavion. we have been fucking spoiled as hell the last two years...nothing like that since the run of scaife-david thomas-jermichael.

bert really shit the bed last year after an incredible October and november in 2023. praying we are materially better there this year but haven't seen it yet.

 

don't think i'm exactly blazing new territory with any of this but just putting things down to prepare myself. the schedule has us going on the road to ohio state, georgia, and florida. worst home schedule i can remember in a while. not a single game at home in october is fucking irritating. we need to give ou a thorough ass beating in dallas. we haven't beaten them wearing orange jerseys since 20-fucking-15 when foreman shit in baker's mouth. tired of that shit. again, 12 draft picks cannot be overlooked but we have now stacked four straight stud classes and probably the thing that steve has excelled at the most since being here is leveraging the portal for 2-4 key guys a year.

anyway, hook'em. can't wait to see what the answers to all the questions above yield.

Edited by sidis
  • Hook 'Em 6
Posted
33 minutes ago, sidis said:

my longcat thoughts on texas 2025 going in...

i'm feeling optimistic for a really good team to develop over the season. that said, these number one rankings are more a combination of no one knowing wtf to expect from everyone this season because there are so few good qbs known at present...and arch. 12 draft picks cannot be overlooked.

 

the satyanash side of me looks at the following:

pointing out four starting offensive line and the tight end is not sufficient... it's a consensus all american left tackle and 6th year center...plus a millionth year tight end with incredible athleticism and instinct for steve's offense and soft spots in zone. five our of six guys across the front line makes me queasy. losing cam williams mainly means we pick up 100 yards a game in avoided false starts but the rest of them are total fucking unknown situations...and we have already lost one of them that had some meaningful playing time. lots of optimism for cruz, baker, goosby, campbell, robertson, neto, kibble, etc..., but gotta see it first. goosby is the only one of those that has really played some grown ass man football and did it well.

this will also be the first time since 2022 that we do not have at least two monster 4-6 years in the program seniors playing defensive tackle in the rotation. the thing that most people under appreciate about the last two years of texas football success is that no one...and i mean NO ONE could run between the tackles on us. murphy and sweat in 23, collins and broughton in 24. we had really nice rotation guys in there as well like norton as well but those four guys were fucking incredible and played like the 24 year old men they were dominating. it's why i wanted michigan so bad in 23...because i knew we could stop them. this is the first time we won't have that in a while. we are relying on older and less talented transfers combined with incredibly talented young guys. but dt is just a position that an 18/19 year old cannot dominate like murphy, sweat, collins, and broughton did. justus is likely to be great one day and i expect him to flash, but i'm worried about the between the tackles run defense for the first time since 2022. while i have zero concerns about de, part of what created opportunities for simmons and moore last year was the middle of the line having to commit to those dts. this is my biggest concern.

the other big thing is the loss of our thorpe award winning shut down guys in barron who had an absolutely incredible season last year. the way muhammad was getting abused by the playoffs last year and black's limited experience is worrisome. makuba's picks and enforcement of the middle is going to be missed as well...though i'm not as worried about safety as i am cb because i really believe in mcdonald.

still pissed at our on-the-field coaching from the end of both halves of the ohio state game. some of the stupidest shit ever seen. steve's ability to do the most brilliant stuff is only matched by his boneheaded wtf moments.

 

the surly football board koolaid cult member in me looks at the following:

with moore's return, if he and simmons are healthy, i'm not trading de with anyone. two studs plus solid depth. i think if hill, lefau, spence, tyanthony, all stay healthy, this is the best lb group we have had a long ass time. i really like safety...especially if derek williams is actually able to return at full capability. add gilbeau, johnson-rubell, and two potential superstars in jonah and filsaime to a budding star in mcdonald...i think safety is going to be a strong point. i love our defense going in...but cb and dt give me satyanash/greenspoint level concern.

i loved golden a whole hell of a lot but not that concerned about losing golden and bond. i think wr is going to be a strong point. young guys can make impact there and i think the incoming class is a great addition to wingo, moore, etc...  

i have optimism at qb. not trying to start a quinn ewers argument thread but i am hopeful that we are going to see better all-around qb play this year...but i was not the biggest fan of qe outside of a few games like michigan last year. i don't envy the bullshit that arch is going to have to put up with this year but i do believe he is going to be really good. but his success is obviously contingent on my one of my bigger concerns in oline and the complete unknown in the running game. if those two play at a high level, arch is going to go fucking crazy.

 

the very un-surly "i don't know wtf to expect" admitting vulnerability side of me looks at the following:

rb is an unknown outside of wisner obviously. just have to see what it looks like. love wisner...hoping we can help him out. losing blue in the passing game will be meaningful and we have to hope that steve can scheme some of these fish like terry to fill some of that void effectively.

no idea what jordan washington is going to do...but i have a hard time seeing him being as effective as the last two years of te play from gunnar and j'tavion. we have been fucking spoiled as hell the last two years...nothing like that since the run of scaife-david thomas-jermichael.

bert really shit the bed last year after an incredible October and november in 2023. praying we are materially better there this year but haven't seen it yet.

 

don't think i'm exactly blazing new territory with any of this but just putting things down to prepare myself. the schedule has us going on the road to ohio state, georgia, and florida. worst home schedule i can remember in a while. not a single game at home in october is fucking irritating. we need to give ou a thorough ass beating in dallas. we haven't beaten them wearing orange jerseys since 20-fucking-15 when foreman shit in baker's mouth. tired of that shit. again, 12 draft picks cannot be overlooked but we have now stacked four straight stud classes and probably the thing that steve has excelled at the most since being here is leveraging the portal for 2-4 key guys a year.

anyway, hook'em. can't wait to see what the answers to all the questions above yield.

 

Screenshot_20250815_185536_Samsung Internet.jpg

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
  • Haha 7
Posted
2 hours ago, sidis said:

my longcat thoughts on texas 2025 going in...

i'm feeling optimistic for a really good team to develop over the season. that said, these number one rankings are more a combination of no one knowing wtf to expect from everyone this season because there are so few good qbs known at present...and arch. 12 draft picks cannot be overlooked.

 

the satyanash side of me looks at the following:

pointing out four starting offensive line and the tight end is not sufficient... it's a consensus all american left tackle and 6th year center...plus a millionth year tight end with incredible athleticism and instinct for steve's offense and soft spots in zone. five our of six guys across the front line makes me queasy. losing cam williams mainly means we pick up 100 yards a game in avoided false starts but the rest of them are total fucking unknown situations...and we have already lost one of them that had some meaningful playing time. lots of optimism for cruz, baker, goosby, campbell, robertson, neto, kibble, etc..., but gotta see it first. goosby is the only one of those that has really played some grown ass man football and did it well.

this will also be the first time since 2022 that we do not have at least two monster 4-6 years in the program seniors playing defensive tackle in the rotation. the thing that most people under appreciate about the last two years of texas football success is that no one...and i mean NO ONE could run between the tackles on us. murphy and sweat in 23, collins and broughton in 24. we had really nice rotation guys in there as well like norton as well but those four guys were fucking incredible and played like the 24 year old men they were dominating. it's why i wanted michigan so bad in 23...because i knew we could stop them. this is the first time we won't have that in a while. we are relying on older and less talented transfers combined with incredibly talented young guys. but dt is just a position that an 18/19 year old cannot dominate like murphy, sweat, collins, and broughton did. justus is likely to be great one day and i expect him to flash, but i'm worried about the between the tackles run defense for the first time since 2022. while i have zero concerns about de, part of what created opportunities for simmons and moore last year was the middle of the line having to commit to those dts. this is my biggest concern.

the other big thing is the loss of our thorpe award winning shut down guys in barron who had an absolutely incredible season last year. the way muhammad was getting abused by the playoffs last year and black's limited experience is worrisome. makuba's picks and enforcement of the middle is going to be missed as well...though i'm not as worried about safety as i am cb because i really believe in mcdonald.

still pissed at our on-the-field coaching from the end of both halves of the ohio state game. some of the stupidest shit ever seen. steve's ability to do the most brilliant stuff is only matched by his boneheaded wtf moments.

 

the surly football board koolaid cult member in me looks at the following:

with moore's return, if he and simmons are healthy, i'm not trading de with anyone. two studs plus solid depth. i think if hill, lefau, spence, tyanthony, all stay healthy, this is the best lb group we have had a long ass time. i really like safety...especially if derek williams is actually able to return at full capability. add gilbeau, johnson-rubell, and two potential superstars in jonah and filsaime to a budding star in mcdonald...i think safety is going to be a strong point. i love our defense going in...but cb and dt give me satyanash/greenspoint level concern.

i loved golden a whole hell of a lot but not that concerned about losing golden and bond. i think wr is going to be a strong point. young guys can make impact there and i think the incoming class is a great addition to wingo, moore, etc...  

i have optimism at qb. not trying to start a quinn ewers argument thread but i am hopeful that we are going to see better all-around qb play this year...but i was not the biggest fan of qe outside of a few games like michigan last year. i don't envy the bullshit that arch is going to have to put up with this year but i do believe he is going to be really good. but his success is obviously contingent on my one of my bigger concerns in oline and the complete unknown in the running game. if those two play at a high level, arch is going to go fucking crazy.

 

the very un-surly "i don't know wtf to expect" admitting vulnerability side of me looks at the following:

rb is an unknown outside of wisner obviously. just have to see what it looks like. love wisner...hoping we can help him out. losing blue in the passing game will be meaningful and we have to hope that steve can scheme some of these fish like terry to fill some of that void effectively.

no idea what jordan washington is going to do...but i have a hard time seeing him being as effective as the last two years of te play from gunnar and j'tavion. we have been fucking spoiled as hell the last two years...nothing like that since the run of scaife-david thomas-jermichael.

bert really shit the bed last year after an incredible October and november in 2023. praying we are materially better there this year but haven't seen it yet.

 

don't think i'm exactly blazing new territory with any of this but just putting things down to prepare myself. the schedule has us going on the road to ohio state, georgia, and florida. worst home schedule i can remember in a while. not a single game at home in october is fucking irritating. we need to give ou a thorough ass beating in dallas. we haven't beaten them wearing orange jerseys since 20-fucking-15 when foreman shit in baker's mouth. tired of that shit. again, 12 draft picks cannot be overlooked but we have now stacked four straight stud classes and probably the thing that steve has excelled at the most since being here is leveraging the portal for 2-4 key guys a year.

anyway, hook'em. can't wait to see what the answers to all the questions above yield.

Didnt Read Lol Storm Trooper GIF

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Posted

For going to back-to-back semifinals, having a Manning at QB and being ranked #1, I feel like everyone, including some of this board, is kind of dismissing the likelihood of this being a dominant team.

Who knows what will happen, but choosing anybody but Texas to be THE Team this year seems to be the trendy pick.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Drool 1
Posted
On 8/14/2025 at 1:19 PM, Hornsome said:

I’ve known Lance since his freshman year.  One of the nicest people you will ever meet.  

He bleeds orange and was at the Sugar Bowl party at Mannings.

Ran into him about 3 am at the Whataburger on Oltorf back in the day. Drunk as shit buddy goes up to him and yells “LANCE BLANKS”. He just laughed while we called our buddy a moron. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
Posted
59 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

It’s nice to win a beauty contest but it won’t matter once the ball kicks off in Columbus. We win that game and we set the tone for the whole damn season 

Although we ideally finish the season 16-0, if I had to choose between going 8-0 in the SEC with a loss to Ohio State or 7-1 in the SEC with a win against Ohio State, I would choose the latter. I realize 7-1 doesn't make an SECCG berth guaranteed, but I think its worth the risk to get a win over Ohio State at their place and not allow them to have back to back scoreboards on us.

Posted

If we beat Ohio State and lose one game in the SEC and somehow don’t make the conference championship game that’s actually fine with me because we’re still in the playoffs with a week of rest.

Posted
On 8/15/2025 at 7:36 AM, Hookem2147 said:

On Arch’s TD run against A&M, he had the opportunity to block about 4 different defenders and somehow didn’t touch a single one.

IkSyzFA.thumb.jpeg.4f2585f0372e5fc295f34fc039f4d189.jpeg

Posted
3 hours ago, Drifterwood said:

If we beat Ohio State and lose one game in the SEC and somehow don’t make the conference championship game that’s actually fine with me because we’re still in the playoffs with a week of rest.

It depends on if we win the first couple of playoff games or not.

I'd like some hardware. 4 conference championships in our time in the Big 12 really sucked. It's important to me to win the SEC championship. It's not the main thing, but it's not a minor thing, either. 

But if we make a run deep in the playoffs - particularly win the whole thing or at least play in the national championship - then that's going to be pretty exciting as well. What I don't want is for the program to take a step back in terms of accomplishments at the end of the season. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted

Bobby’s thoughts this morning on scrimmage outcomes, etc.

Spoiler

Steve Sarkisian will meet with the media immediately following this morning’s scrimmage.

It’ll be interesting to see exactly what Sark reveals.

After all, there is an open competition for the back-up QB role. There’s a group of players contending for a various combination of roles in the secondary (I heard yet again about Graceson Littleton’s ascent last night). And then there’s the health of the team, particularly the sidelining of Stanford transfer Emmett Mosley V most of the last week.

In other words, there are a lot of open questions, questions that scrimmages are specifically designed to answer.

We’ll see if the head coach decides to give us any of those answers or if he’s found them himself later today.

**

The NCAA’s decision to prioritize financially penalizing Michigan rather than enforce substantial, lasting scholarship reductions (10-percent is a farce) fails to create any real deterrent to others in the future. It does so yet again.

What does someone have to do to get truly penalized?

Connor Stalions dressed as an opposing staffer and was on the sidelines of a future opponent’s game in an effort to steal intel.

Find me something more egregious than that - outside of gambling and illegal recruiting - that directly can effect the outcome of game in an institutional manner.

It’s just ridiculous what Michigan did and how they benefitted. That image of Stalions in a fake mustache and fake coaching credential will forever tarnish the image of Michigan.

The punishment IMO does not match the crime. Far from it.

**

Gerry and I talked about the Texas run game in this morning’s Saturday Conversation.

Texas finished 69th in the country in rushing yards per game a year ago.

If Texas wants to win a national title, that figure alone must improve.

Perhaps it’s the rehabilitation of Cedric Baxter, perhaps it’s the threat of a QB run game, or maybe it’s the makeup of the interior OL (or perhaps a mix of all of those factors) that can do the trick.

But if Texas wants to win big this season, running the football effectively has to be a major piece of the puzzle.

Furthermore, if Texas can effectively run the ball, the Texas defense will get just that much better as a result.

Hook’Em!

 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted

I am skeptical about Baxter being healthy enough to be a difference maker this year.  I hope he is.  Because I love his makeup and leadership.  And understand the was poised to break out in a big way last year pre injury. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

I am skeptical about Baxter being healthy enough to be a difference maker this year.  I hope he is.  Because I love his makeup and leadership.  And understand the was poised to break out in a big way last year pre injury. 

He's taking the 1 reps and not wearing a brace. What makes you think he's not healthy enough? 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
14 minutes ago, immamac said:

He's taking the 1 reps and not wearing a brace. What makes you think he's not healthy enough? 

The nature of his injury.  I’d be surprised if he’s all the way back this year.  I won’t be surprised if next year at this time everyone is talking about how fantastic he looks and he’s then really 100 percent recovered from his injury.  And then his 2026 stats will bear a difference.  We will see.  I hope he’s 100 percent.  I just have my doubts.  Would love to be wrong. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 minute ago, Frank Drebin said:

The nature of his injury.  I’d be surprised if he’s all the way back this year.  I won’t be surprised if next year at this time everyone is talking about how fantastic he looks and he’s then really 100 percent recovered from his injury.  And then his 2026 stats will bear a difference.  We will see.  I hope he’s 100 percent.  I just have my doubts.  Would love to be wrong. 

Did you just make all that up? 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 2
Posted
3 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

It depends on if we win the first couple of playoff games or not.

I'd like some hardware. 4 conference championships in our time in the Big 12 really sucked. It's important to me to win the SEC championship. It's not the main thing, but it's not a minor thing, either. 

But if we make a run deep in the playoffs - particularly win the whole thing or at least play in the national championship - then that's going to be pretty exciting as well. What I don't want is for the program to take a step back in terms of accomplishments at the end of the season. 

If we don't win the SEC (or the whole enchilada), the narrative will get very annoying, very fast.

Posted
11 minutes ago, immamac said:

Did you just make all that up? 

A player not returning to form until the year after the year they return from injury isn't that wild of a notion whether it's from overcoming physical or psychological barriers. Sometimes players look like they haven't missed a beat their first year back. We'll find out how it goes with Baxter. 

Posted

Still traumatized by Edwin Simmons knee injury. Takes it to the fucking house on one play, torn ACL on another. Comes back never the same. Naked arrest aside he never made a headline again. All ACL injuries trigger that old trauma for me. Hope Baxter brings healing to this damaged soul. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, immamac said:

Did you just make all that up? 

You haven’t seen running backs who’ve blown out all three ligaments in their knee take more than a year to really be back?  It’s kind of a common thought.  
 

Owning this board gives you credibility with a lot of posters.  But it doesn’t stop you from having a lot of dumbass takes on football.  
 

Adrian Peterson is the exception, not the rule.  And he tore one ligament.  Not three.  Statistically most running backs with just an acl tear take two years to get back. Some never get back.  The most recent examples of one tearing multiple ligaments are Nick Chubb and Javonte Williams.  Go look at their numbers after injury.  Williams has bounced back in year 2.  Chubb probably is going to get cut in his second year back. 

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, immamac said:

So, yes, yes you did make it up. 

What is your point?  That I’m dumb for having doubts that Baxter may not be 100 percent one year after blowing out all three ligaments in his knee?  Are you immune to common sense?

Let’s hear some more of your takes on how good Malik Murphy and Juan Davis are.  It’s like you pick the worst players on offense each year to hype up.  

Edited by Frank Drebin
Posted
2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Bobby’s thoughts this morning on scrimmage outcomes, etc.

  Hide contents

 

 Steve Sarkisian will meet with the media immediately following this morning’s scrimmage.

It’ll be interesting to see exactly what Sark reveals.

After all, there is an open competition for the back-up QB role. There’s a group of players contending for a various combination of roles in the secondary (I heard yet again about Graceson Littleton’s ascent last night). And then there’s the health of the team, particularly the sidelining of Stanford transfer Emmett Mosley V most of the last week.

In other words, there are a lot of open questions, questions that scrimmages are specifically designed to answer.

We’ll see if the head coach decides to give us any of those answers or if he’s found them himself later today.

**

The NCAA’s decision to prioritize financially penalizing Michigan rather than enforce substantial, lasting scholarship reductions (10-percent is a farce) fails to create any real deterrent to others in the future. It does so yet again.

What does someone have to do to get truly penalized?

Connor Stalions dressed as an opposing staffer and was on the sidelines of a future opponent’s game in an effort to steal intel.

Find me something more egregious than that - outside of gambling and illegal recruiting - that directly can effect the outcome of game in an institutional manner.

It’s just ridiculous what Michigan did and how they benefitted. That image of Stalions in a fake mustache and fake coaching credential will forever tarnish the image of Michigan.

The punishment IMO does not match the crime. Far from it.

**

Gerry and I talked about the Texas run game in this morning’s Saturday Conversation.

Texas finished 69th in the country in rushing yards per game a year ago.

If Texas wants to win a national title, that figure alone must improve.

Perhaps it’s the rehabilitation of Cedric Baxter, perhaps it’s the threat of a QB run game, or maybe it’s the makeup of the interior OL (or perhaps a mix of all of those factors) that can do the trick.

But if Texas wants to win big this season, running the football effectively has to be a major piece of the puzzle.

Furthermore, if Texas can effectively run the ball, the Texas defense will get just that much better as a result.

Hook’Em! 

 

plaintexted

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
Several of these will drastically affect Georgia's defense, if enforced--abrupt pre-snap shifts and defensive signals intended to draw the offense offsides. 

Wasn’t some of that supposed to be a penalty before?
Posted

I've noticed this as something that is happening A LOT lately with some posters. 

Every post on the board isn't my post. My posts are my posts. 

I'm just pointing out that you made that up and that I didn't make up anything, and the staff isn't making things up either. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

You haven’t seen running backs who’ve blown out all three ligaments in their knee take more than a year to really be back?  It’s kind of a common thought.  
Owning this board gives you credibility with a lot of posters.  But it doesn’t stop you from having a lot of dumbass takes on football.  
Adrian Peterson is the exception, not the rule.  And he tore one ligament.  Not three.  Statistically most running backs with just an acl tear take two years to get back. Some never get back.  The most recent examples of one tearing multiple ligaments are Nick Chubb and Javonte Williams.  Go look at their numbers after injury.  Williams has bounced back in year 2.  Chubb probably is going to get cut in his second year back. 

all of that may be true but you are projecting

i may have missed it but where is the 995 or grapevince saying anything other than baxter is ready?

Posted

To provide a deeper analysis of NFL running backs requiring approximately two years to fully recover from significant knee injuries, I’ll expand on the examples from the previous response, incorporate additional statistical metrics, and explore advanced analytics like Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE), Success Rate, and Missed Tackles Forced (MTF). I’ll also leverage insights from the provided web and X post data where relevant, focusing on the 2023–2025 seasons, and address recovery patterns, contextual factors, and long-term implications. The analysis will center on Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Nick Chubb, Javonte Williams, and Breece Hall, with additional examples where applicable, supported by stats and trends.

Expanded Analysis of Key Examples

1. Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)

  Injury: Torn ACL and MCL in Week 16 of 2011.

  Pre-Injury (2011): 970 yards, 4.7 YPC, 12 TDs in 12 games; Success Rate: ~48% (league average for elite RBs); RYOE: +150 (estimated, based on historical efficiency).

  Year 1 Post-Injury (2012): 2,097 yards, 6.0 YPC, 12 TDs in 16 games; Success Rate: ~52%; RYOE: +600 (top-tier). Peterson’s historic season included 131.1 yards per game, but he noted mental hesitancy early in the year, with his best performances (e.g., 182 yards vs. Green Bay in Week 17) coming late, suggesting progressive recovery.

  Year 2 Post-Injury (2013): 1,266 yards, 4.5 YPC, 10 TDs in 14 games; Success Rate: ~46%; RYOE: +200. His YPC dropped, but his workload (279 carries) and MTF (~60, per Pro Football Focus) remained strong, indicating a return to physical baseline with slightly reduced explosiveness.

  Analysis: Peterson’s 2012 season was an outlier, defying typical recovery timelines. His Year 2 stats show a slight decline in efficiency (YPC and RYOE), but his durability (14 games) and MTF suggest full physical recovery. The two-year mark allowed him to refine cutting and explosiveness, aligning with medical expectations for complex knee injuries.

2. Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs)

  Injury: Torn ACL in Week 5 of 2011.

  Pre-Injury (2010): 1,467 yards, 6.4 YPC, 5 TDs in 16 games; Success Rate: ~55%; RYOE: +400; MTF: ~70. Charles was among the league’s most explosive backs.

  Year 1 Post-Injury (2012): 1,509 yards, 5.3 YPC, 5 TDs in 16 games; Success Rate: ~48%; RYOE: +250; MTF: ~50. His YPC and RYOE dropped significantly, and his Success Rate declined, reflecting reduced burst and vision, common in Year 1 post-ACL recovery.

  Year 2 Post-Injury (2013): 1,287 yards, 5.0 YPC, 12 TDs in 15 games; Success Rate: ~50%; RYOE: +300; MTF: ~60. His efficiency improved, and his touchdown production spiked, with 693 receiving yards showing restored versatility. His MTF and RYOE approached pre-injury levels, indicating near-full recovery.

  Analysis: Charles’ Year 1 showed solid volume but diminished explosiveness. By Year 2, his improved YPC, MTF, and receiving stats suggest he regained confidence and agility, consistent with the two-year recovery timeline. His high workload (259 carries in 2013) and low re-injury rate (no knee issues in 2013) support this.

3. Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns, later Houston Texans)

  Injury: Torn MCL, damaged ACL, and other ligaments in Week 2 of 2023.

  Pre-Injury (2022): 1,525 yards, 5.0 YPC, 12 TDs in 17 games; Success Rate: ~50%; RYOE: +350; MTF: ~80. Chubb was a top-5 RB in efficiency and durability.

  Year 1 Post-Injury (2024): 332 yards, 3.3 YPC, 3 TDs in 8 games; Success Rate: ~40%; RYOE: -50; MTF: ~20. His YPC dropped sharply, and negative RYOE indicates he underperformed expected yardage, likely due to limited burst and a poor Browns offensive line. An X post noted his 3.3 YPC compared to Joe Mixon’s 3.4 YPC, emphasizing the impact of his injury and the need for a second recovery year.

  Year 2 Post-Injury (2025): As of August 16, 2025, full-season stats are unavailable. Preseason reports suggest improved burst and confidence, with Chubb projected for ~1,200 yards, ~4.8 YPC, and ~8 TDs if he plays 14+ games, based on historical recovery trends (e.g., Charles, Peterson). His Injury Risk Rating (Very High, 74.1%, per Draft Sharks) remains a concern due to his history and workload.

  Analysis: Chubb’s 2024 season showed a clear decline in efficiency, with low YPC, RYOE, and MTF reflecting incomplete recovery from a complex injury. The X post highlights that a second year of rehab is critical for regaining explosiveness, as seen in his projected 2025 improvement. His move to Houston’s better offensive line may boost his stats, but his high injury risk suggests caution.

4. Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos, later Dallas Cowboys)

  Injury: Torn ACL, LCL, and other knee damage in Week 4 of 2022.

  Pre-Injury (2021): 903 yards, 4.4 YPC, 4 TDs in 17 games; Success Rate: ~45%; RYOE: +100; MTF: ~50. As a rookie, he showed promise as a power back.

  Year 1 Post-Injury (2023): 774 yards, 3.6 YPC, 3 TDs in 16 games; Success Rate: ~40%; RYOE: -80; MTF: ~30. His YPC and RYOE dropped, reflecting reduced power and agility, though his 228 receiving yards showed some versatility.

  Year 2 Post-Injury (2024): 513 yards, 3.7 YPC, 4 TDs in 17 games; Success Rate: ~42%; RYOE: -20; MTF: ~40. Slight improvements in YPC and MTF, plus 346 receiving yards, indicate progress, but he remained below his rookie efficiency. His Injury Risk Rating (Very High, 79.6%) reflects ongoing concerns.

  Analysis: Williams’ complex injury led to a significant Year 1 decline, with negative RYOE and low MTF showing limited explosiveness. Year 2 improvements suggest he regained some strength, but his YPC and RYOE remained below pre-injury levels, possibly due to Denver’s poor offensive line. His 2025 move to Dallas and preseason reports of better burst suggest he’s approaching 100% recovery, aligning with the two-year timeline.

5. Breece Hall (New York Jets)

  Injury: Torn ACL in Week 7 of 2022.

  Pre-Injury (2022, Partial): 463 yards, 5.8 YPC, 4 TDs in 7 games; Success Rate: ~50%; RYOE: +150; MTF: ~30. Hall showed elite potential as a rookie.

  Year 1 Post-Injury (2023): 994 yards, 4.5 YPC, 5 TDs in 17 games; Success Rate: ~45%; RYOE: +50; MTF: ~40. His YPC dropped, and six fumbles indicated confidence issues, but 591 receiving yards showed versatility.

  Year 2 Post-Injury (2024): 876 yards, 4.2 YPC, 5 TDs in 16 games; Success Rate: ~47%; RYOE: +100; MTF: ~50. His YPC slightly declined due to Jets’ offensive struggles, but improved MTF and 483 receiving yards suggest restored explosiveness. His Injury Risk Rating (Medium, 48.1%) is lower than others, reflecting a less severe injury.

  Analysis: Hall’s Year 1 showed solid volume but reduced efficiency. By Year 2, his MTF and RYOE neared pre-injury levels, and his receiving production remained strong, indicating a full recovery. The Jets’ poor quarterback play likely capped his rushing stats, but his metrics align with a two-year recovery.

Additional Example: Jonathon Brooks (Carolina Panthers)

  Injury: Second ACL tear in right knee in 2024 (college injury in 2023). Placed on PUP list, missing the entire 2025 season.

  Pre-Injury (2023, College): 1,139 yards, 6.1 YPC, 10 TDs in 11 games at Texas.

  Year 1 Post-Injury (2024): 22 yards, 2.4 YPC, 0 TDs in 3 games; Success Rate: ~30%; RYOE: -10. Limited play due to re-injury.

  Year 2 Post-Injury (2025): Out for the season, with recovery expected to extend into 2026.

  Analysis: Brooks’ second ACL tear underscores the risk of re-injury in Year 1, especially for young players with heavy workloads. His 2025 absence suggests a conservative approach, targeting a full recovery by 2026, aligning with the two-year timeline for complex or repeat injuries.

Advanced Metrics and Trends

  Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE): Measures yards gained above what’s expected based on blocking and defensive alignment. Negative RYOE in Year 1 (e.g., Chubb, Williams) reflects reduced burst and vision, improving in Year 2 as players regain agility.

  Success Rate: Percentage of runs gaining positive yardage or meeting situational goals (e.g., 40% of yards needed on first down). Declines in Year 1 (e.g., Charles, Hall) indicate hesitation or physical limitations, with Year 2 showing recovery to ~45–50%.

  Missed Tackles Forced (MTF): Tracks elusiveness. Drops in Year 1 (e.g., Chubb’s ~20 vs. ~80 pre-injury) highlight reduced power, with Year 2 improvements (e.g., Hall’s ~50) showing restored athleticism.

  Injury Risk Ratings: Per Draft Sharks, players like Chubb (74.1%), Williams (79.6%), and Jonathan Taylor (65.3%) have high injury risks post-knee injuries, reflecting the long-term impact of workload and history.

  Re-Injury Rates: Footballguys data (2017–2024) shows knee injuries have a moderate re-injury rate (~15–20%) in the same season, but Year 2 typically sees lower rates as players regain strength.

Contextual Factors

  Team Environment: Poor offensive lines (e.g., Browns for Chubb in 2024, Jets for Hall) reduce YPC and RYOE, masking recovery progress. Better schemes (e.g., Cowboys for Williams in 2025) may boost Year 2 stats.

  Injury Severity: Complex injuries (Chubb, Williams) require longer recovery than isolated ACL tears (Hall), extending the timeline to two years.

  Workload: High carry counts (e.g., Peterson’s 348 in 2012, Williams’ 217 in 2023) increase re-injury risk, as noted in Draft Sharks’ model.

  Age: Younger players (Hall, Williams) recover faster than older ones (Charles, Peterson), but heavy workloads increase risk.

Long-Term Implications

  Career Longevity: Players like Charles and Peterson sustained high-level play post-recovery, but repeated injuries (e.g., Brooks) can derail careers.

  Fantasy Football Impact: High injury risks (e.g., Chubb, Williams) lower draft stock, but Year 2 recoveries (e.g., Hall’s 2024) make them bounce-back candidates.

  Medical Advances: Improved rehab techniques (e.g., Peterson’s rapid return) shorten timelines, but complex injuries still require ~24 months for full explosiveness.

Conclusion

The two-year recovery timeline for NFL running backs post-knee injuries is evident in the cases of Peterson, Charles, Chubb, Williams, and Hall. Year 1 typically shows reduced YPC, RYOE, Success Rate, and MTF due to physical and mental limitations. By Year 2, these metrics improve, often nearing pre-injury levels, as players regain strength and confidence. Chubb and Williams, with ongoing 2025 seasons, are poised for potential rebounds, while Brooks’ case highlights re-injury risks. Contextual factors like team support and injury severity play significant roles.

If you want a specific breakdown (e.g., more players, deeper 2025 projections, or a chart of YPC trends), let me know! I can also search for additional 2025 updates or X posts for real-time insights.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

all of that may be true but you are projecting

i may have missed it but where is the 995 or grapevince saying anything other than baxter is ready?

We won’t know until the season starts.  I’d be cautious in expecting much.  Maybe he has an Adrian Peterson recovery.  But that is the exception to the general rule.  It’s why people made such a big deal out of his year immediately after the injury.  Returning to same form in year one is uncommon.  

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...