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2025 game Week 1, #1 Texas @ #3 Ohio State - What the Fuck is a Buckeye?


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Posted

Ohio State folks are convinced that Julian and Arch are in the same boat since even though Sayin has no experience, he isn't having to face a hostile crowd. Arch already got a taste of loud crowd conditions against aggy, but more importantly he had to come in versus Georgia under really hostile conditions where Georgia was just teeing off on the QB at that point in the game. So no, it's not the same. One has just enough experience to draw from, and the other has none. And let's hope we can bank on it for a win on Saturday.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Ohio State folks are convinced that Julian and Arch are in the same boat since even though Sayin has no experience, he isn't having to face a hostile crowd. Arch already got a taste of loud crowd conditions against aggy, but more importantly he had to come in versus Georgia under really hostile conditions where Georgia was just teeing off on the QB at that point in the game. So no, it's not the same. One has just enough experience to draw from, and the other has none. And let's hope we can bank on it for a win on Saturday.

Zero college starts somehow equals 2 starts and high leverage snaps all season. Whatever makes them feel better 

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Posted

Here is what Bill Connelly / SP+ predicted before the Bama game in 2023:

Current line: Bama -7 | SP+ projection: Bama by 12.8 | FPI projection: Bama by 13.8

Source: https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/38346795/college-football-week-2-texas-bama-texas-miami-bets-picks-more

I like Connelly and I like SP+, but his model struggles early in the season. Same as FPI, same as literally everyone. There is not enough data to go on, especially for a week 1 game. I'm picking Texas and I think this game will look more like Michigan in 2024 and less like Bama in 2023. We have the QB advantage and we have the better defense. Those two factors alone decide 90% of college football games. Our secondary is going to make reading the field and making safe throw hard on the inexperienced (although clearly talented) Sayin, and he isn't going to have much time to do his job with our DL crashing down on him. OSU's best bet will be to lean on their run game, but that neutralizes their biggest asset in WR Jeremiah Smith. 

I don't know what to make of our OL at this point, which makes it hard to predict how well the offense will do as a whole. But I'm pretty sure we can run block even if our pass block is deficient due to injuries. We definitely have the better stable of RBs. We can lean on our run game if we need to, which is a cornerstone of Sark's offense anyway. 

Maybe I'm too much of a homer, but there it seems like everything lines up favorably for Texas. OSU is clearly an excellent team with a talented roster, but styles make fights and, at least at this point in the season, I think we are a terrible match up for what they want to do. 

 

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Posted (edited)

Think this has been posted in other threads, but I really recommend watching this if you have not. Gives you a good understanding of how PK held that offense to 21 pts and his general defensive philosophy the last 2 years. If Texas can play the box light and stop the run again, Texas will win this game. (Michigan has done this also). 

Edited by Codaxx
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Posted

Slightly off topic, but over the weekend I came across an extended highlight video of the '06 matchup in Austin. I had forgotten (or purposely blocked out) a lot of that game. Troy Smith overthrew Ted Ginn about 4 different times for touchdowns. 

Colt obviously wasn't good, but Mack and Greg Davis had the leash on tight that game. The fumble by Pittman when we were about to go up 7-0 in the first quarter was a killer. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, PsychMike said:

Irish 30, Canes 29, with the Canes missing the potential game-winning FG?

 

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

If by missing you mean accidentally letting the clock run out before they can attempt it you're probably right. 

Season 6 Side Show Bob GIF by The Simpsons

Posted
23 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Slightly off topic, but over the weekend I came across an extended highlight video of the '06 matchup in Austin. I had forgotten (or purposely blocked out) a lot of that game. Troy Smith overthrew Ted Ginn about 4 different times for touchdowns. 

Colt obviously wasn't good, but Mack and Greg Davis had the leash on tight that game. The fumble by Pittman when we were about to go up 7-0 in the first quarter was a killer. 

Yeah, freshman Colt had all of one start in his career, the prior week against North Texas.  The Colt McCoy of later in that season with several more games under his belt might have pulled off a win, or at least made the game closer.

Posted
57 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

Here is what Bill Connelly / SP+ predicted before the Bama game in 2023:

Current line: Bama -7 | SP+ projection: Bama by 12.8 | FPI projection: Bama by 13.8

Source: https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/38346795/college-football-week-2-texas-bama-texas-miami-bets-picks-more

I like Connelly and I like SP+, but his model struggles early in the season. Same as FPI, same as literally everyone. There is not enough data to go on, especially for a week 1 game. I'm picking Texas and I think this game will look more like Michigan in 2024 and less like Bama in 2023. We have the QB advantage and we have the better defense. Those two factors alone decide 90% of college football games. Our secondary is going to make reading the field and making safe throw hard on the inexperienced (although clearly talented) Sayin, and he isn't going to have much time to do his job with our DL crashing down on him. OSU's best bet will be to lean on their run game, but that neutralizes their biggest asset in WR Jeremiah Smith. 

I don't know what to make of our OL at this point, which makes it hard to predict how well the offense will do as a whole. But I'm pretty sure we can run block even if our pass block is deficient due to injuries. We definitely have the better stable of RBs. We can lean on our run game if we need to, which is a cornerstone of Sark's offense anyway. 

Maybe I'm too much of a homer, but there it seems like everything lines up favorably for Texas. OSU is clearly an excellent team with a talented roster, but styles make fights and, at least at this point in the season, I think we are a terrible match up for what they want to do. 

 


too much analysis. We have Arch and we have Livingstone - Mudhole! 

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Posted

Howdy folks - Buckeye in Austin here, checking back in for the first time this season.  Best of luck to y'all this weekend.  I have zero feel for how this game is going to go - both sides with obviously extreme talent but inexperience at some very important positions.  I think TX has a slight edge at QB given Arch's game experience last year, and a significant edge on the sideline since we will be breaking in two new fresh coordinators (even though Hartline will have a nice safety net given that Day has spent most of his career calling plays).  Calling it a wash over the other positions (TX with an advantage at DL and LB, OSU at OL and WR, etc) I would expect TX to pull out a close win, and a blowout in either case seems extremely unlikely...but playing this monster in Game 1 just adds an unaccountable weirdness factor.

My 6-year-old daughter fortunately loves me very much and wants to root for OSU to make me happy, but as the lone actual Austinite in the family she is torn.  She'll be wearing a TX dress underneath her OSU hoodie for this one.

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Posted
1 hour ago, TejasPedro said:

First off fuck Ohio State 

Ya’ll remember that one time Sark and the Horns rolled into Brian Dennehy Stadium and completely dismantled the Bama program Tuscaloosa hasn’t been the same since that day. 
 

Pos rep for this alone… 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Borrominion said:

Howdy folks - Buckeye in Austin here, checking back in for the first time this season.  Best of luck to y'all this weekend.  I have zero feel for how this game is going to go - both sides with obviously extreme talent but inexperience at some very important positions.  I think TX has a slight edge at QB given Arch's game experience last year, and a significant edge on the sideline since we will be breaking in two new fresh coordinators (even though Hartline will have a nice safety net given that Day has spent most of his career calling plays).  Calling it a wash over the other positions (TX with an advantage at DL and LB, OSU at OL and WR, etc) I would expect TX to pull out a close win, and a blowout in either case seems extremely unlikely...but playing this monster in Game 1 just adds an unaccountable weirdness factor.

My 6-year-old daughter fortunately loves me very much and wants to root for OSU to make me happy, but as the lone actual Austinite in the family she is torn.  She'll be wearing a TX dress underneath her OSU hoodie for this one.

If you ever get lost in between the parking lot and stadium, stop by the Surly tailgate and some fine individual can provide directions. 

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Posted (edited)

Sark seems to do his best work when he can spend the entire off season and preseason camp game planning, as evidenced by Alabama 2 years ago and Michigan last. I fully trust he’s going to put us in a great position to win this game. 
 

The similarities to Michigan last year are just too much to overlook (OSU and Michigan both coming off national championships, both losing a shit ton of their upper class man heavy roster, Michigan lost their HC and OSU lost their OC). I actually feel really good about this game.

 

As a side note, how the fuck we playing at Michigan and then at Ohio State in back to back years? I haven’t looked at future schedules but those motherfuckers better return those games to Austin in the near future.

Edited by Billy Pilgrim
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Posted
1 minute ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

As a side note, how the fuck we playing at Michigan and then at Ohio State in back to back years? I haven’t looked at future schedules but those motherfuckers better return those games to Austin in the near future.

And it was @Alabama the year before that.  But don't worry, Ohio State will be headed to Austin in 2026 and Michigan  in 2027.  

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Posted
1 minute ago, utee94 said:

And it was @Alabama the year before that.  But don't worry, Ohio State will be headed to Austin in 2026 and Michigan  in 2027.  

At least Alabama came to Austin the year before (during peak Big12 ref shenanigans)

Posted
3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

And it was @Alabama the year before that.  But don't worry, Ohio State will be headed to Austin in 2026 and Michigan  in 2027.  

Sure Jan. 
 

that was for CTJ. 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Frank Hammer said:

I'd expect a 25% to 35 % downgrade from Will Howards performance at best and that is the factor I see being the difference. unless our secondary is just not up to keeping up with their WR's

I dont know who is on OL or DL, but there was more pressure than I anticipated 

Posted
48 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

If you ever get lost in between the parking lot and stadium, stop by the Surly tailgate and some fine individual can provide directions. 

Haha - thanks.  I'll bring along my google maps just as a backup.

Posted
39 minutes ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

At least Alabama came to Austin the year before (during peak Big12 ref shenanigans)

Oh yeah for sure, I wasn't commenting on any unfairness of scheduling the home-and-homes.  Just the strange quirk of the schedule playing @Alabama, @Michigan, and @Ohio State three years in a row.

Posted

We'll see how Texas' reloaded OL goes. That's certainly an unknown going into this game.

I've seen Simmons, Moore, and Hill play football before. They're not unknown. If any one of them were on the field, the opposing coach would have to scheme against them. They're each individually capable of beating their man one on one and putting the QB on the ground without benefit of blitz or overload. 

They can all 3 be on the field at once.

There's plenty of talent on the tOSU offense. This just isn't the defense to practice on.

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