February 18, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, bernorange said: The link I posted earlier today was to one of Münchau's posts. Dude is great. He is about the most informed there is out there when it comes to Europe. It's probably the best podcast out there for this type of shit.
February 18, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, Auto Driller said: Russian citizens are not cut off from outside information sources though, right? Do they actually believe Kremlin propaganda or are they just conditioned to accept it, lest they end up in a gulag? I mean, I'm sure some don't believe it. But c'mon--it's not a hard sell here. People what to believe that their country is the good guys. They want to believe that their country is protecting the innocent civilians from being annihilated by a bloodthirsty aggressor. So when their country tells them, "we're the good guys, and we need to invade to protect innocent civilians from being annihilated by a bloodthirsty aggressor," yeah--most of them believe that. I mean, shit--we live in a country with a (relatively) free press. And this is a board populated by (relatively) educated people with access to plenty of information sources. Now go start a thread about the causes of the Civil War, and see what happens.
February 18, 20223 yr There has been a massive explosion in Luhansk and Russia Today is claiming it’s the gas pipeline.
February 18, 20223 yr Hypothetical questionSay Russia invades, Ukrainian army, and militias defend it successfully and forces Russians to retreat….what happens to Russia as a whole if they lose a bunch of soldiers and everybody knows they’re suddenly weakened?
February 18, 20223 yr 4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said: There has been a massive explosion in Luhansk and Russia Today is claiming it’s the gas pipeline. I have my suspicions.....
February 18, 20223 yr 6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said: People what to believe that their country is the good guys. They want to believe that their country is protecting the innocent civilians from being annihilated by a bloodthirsty aggressor. So when their country tells them, "we're the good guys, and we need to invade to protect innocent civilians from being annihilated by a bloodthirsty aggressor," yeah--most of them believe that. Ummmm, the Bay of Pigs? Gulf of Tonkin? WMD's? We can go on. What's the saying? If God is on our side, can anyone be against us?
February 18, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said: Biden is now 35 minutes late to a planned press conference on this topic. Nap time is no laughing matter
February 18, 20223 yr 19 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said: I mean, I'm sure some don't believe it. But c'mon--it's not a hard sell here. People what to believe that their country is the good guys. They want to believe that their country is protecting the innocent civilians from being annihilated by a bloodthirsty aggressor. So when their country tells them, "we're the good guys, and we need to invade to protect innocent civilians from being annihilated by a bloodthirsty aggressor," yeah--most of them believe that. I mean, shit--we live in a country with a (relatively) free press. And this is a board populated by (relatively) educated people with access to plenty of information sources. Now go start a thread about the causes of the Civil War, and see what happens. Even broad minded and educated Russians are suspicious of “dissident” Russian language media, which by now is almost entirely online and is coming in from abroad or has been slapped with the foreign agent designation. Here is a tweet from probably the most popular “sort of dissident” channel, TV Rain, with the label. This tweet happens to be a quote from a Ukrainian political scientist who says “Russia is constructing a ‘causus belli’.” The pink box is the “this media is a registered foreign agent” warning. This type of stuff is effective. Also consider— foreign language penetration is not super in Russia and even among those who are— consuming foreign language media is hard work. Russian state media is high quality and really LOOKS like news to Russians. It’s there, it’s accessible. Most Russians consume it. They don’t believe it’s fully accurate, but they are so cynical that they don’t believe any foreign media is more accurate. Edited February 18, 20223 yr by 956 Worldwide
February 18, 20223 yr He just said he is convinced Putin is going to invade Ukraine. Glad he waited till the markets closed.
February 18, 20223 yr If anyone is interested, this is the best breakdown of the Kremlin’s information ecosystem. The stuff you’re most likely to see comes from the lower right section. Even if you are not actively consuming that content this has a nasty way of breaking out of its box and infecting our discourse. It becomes something someone read somewhere. I think we are slowly getting more digitally savvy, but there’s still a huge vulnerability.
February 18, 20223 yr 15 minutes ago, Rip76 said: He just said he is convinced Putin is going to invade Ukraine. Glad he waited till the markets closed. Tuesday should be a fucking dandy. Good fucking Lord
February 18, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, kevwun said: When your target options are an attack helicopter or a child, it's just makes sense to take out the kid. Depends on how shitty the kid is sitting in the booth at applebees
February 18, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said: Hypothetical question Say Russia invades, Ukrainian army, and militias defend it successfully and forces Russians to retreat….what happens to Russia as a whole if they lose a bunch of soldiers and everybody knows they’re suddenly weakened? They have to start attending a different high school cuz its too embarrassing at the old one
February 18, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said: Hypothetical question Say Russia invades, Ukrainian army, and militias defend it successfully and forces Russians to retreat….what happens to Russia as a whole if they lose a bunch of soldiers and everybody knows they’re suddenly weakened? Putin "wins" his next election with 96% of the vote instead of 97%. Honestly, I don't think they can lose. Ukraine can put up a hell of a fight, but Russia has too many resources. I say that with very little knowledge of Eastern Europe politics, so maybe I'm way off.
February 18, 20223 yr 28 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said: If anyone is interested, this is the best breakdown of the Kremlin’s information ecosystem. The stuff you’re most likely to see comes from the lower right section. Even if you are not actively consuming that content this has a nasty way of breaking out of its box and infecting our discourse. It becomes something someone read somewhere. I think we are slowly getting more digitally savvy, but there’s still a huge vulnerability. I dont see the CR on this infographic
February 18, 20223 yr Quote Luhansk gas service says both explosions at gas pipeline caused by saboteurs Damn Ukrainians always trying to go war with.....a breakaway state that Russia hasn't acknowledged (so themselves) that they've been at war with since 2014.
February 18, 20223 yr Just now, MissingInAction said: So WW3 or nah? If I have a vote, I would vote for nah please.
February 18, 20223 yr 12 minutes ago, 'stache said: Putin "wins" his next election with 96% of the vote instead of 97%. Honestly, I don't think they can lose. Ukraine can put up a hell of a fight, but Russia has too many resources. I say that with very little knowledge of Eastern Europe politics, so maybe I'm way off. From my read, Ukraine has the ability to possibly bloody the Russians nose - we’ve armed them with Javelins and other tech weapons - but they don’t have the numbers to withstand a full attack.
February 18, 20223 yr The topography doesn't lend itself for a drawn out guerrilla defense like Afghanistan or Viet Nam.
February 18, 20223 yr The topography doesn't lend itself for a drawn out guerrilla defense like Afghanistan or Viet Nam.Wouldn’t every city Russia enters be almost a bloodbath?
February 18, 20223 yr 5 minutes ago, MissingInAction said: The topography doesn't lend itself for a drawn out guerrilla defense like Afghanistan or Viet Nam. Ukraine is in an existential fight. Tell me why they don't put using Chernobyl as a dirty bomb in play? If what you have to lose is "everything," how is "everything" not on the table? Edited February 18, 20223 yr by Brisketexan
February 18, 20223 yr 5 minutes ago, MissingInAction said: The topography doesn't lend itself for a drawn out guerrilla defense like Afghanistan or Viet Nam. The man in the blue-and-maize pajamas: worthy fucking adversary
February 18, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, Brisketexan said: Ukraine is in an existential fight. Tell me why they don't put using Chernobyl as a dirty bomb in play? If what you have to lose is "everything," how is "everything" not on the table? It probably wouldn’t really work and also even if it did you’d be irradiating your home and the people you want to live? It’s just not a credible threat, it’s like if the United States had all our nukes pointed at ourselves and we claimed we’d blow up any army that crossed our border, but not till they were already in Tucson.
February 18, 20223 yr It probably wouldn’t really work and also even if it did you’d be irradiating your home and the people you want to live? It’s just not a credible threat, it’s like if the United States had all our nukes pointed at ourselves and we claimed we’d blow up any army that crossed our border, but not till they were already in Tucson. Counterpoint: to survive, does Ukraine have any other play?
February 18, 20223 yr 7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said: Ukraine is in an existential fight. Tell me why they don't put using Chernobyl as a dirty bomb in play? If what you have to lose is "everything," how is "everything" not on the table? Wrong side of the river. Putin is going to allow Ukraine to exist, but I think he is going up to the river.
February 18, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, Brisketexan said: Counterpoint: to survive, does Ukraine have any other play? Surviving in an irradiated wasteland isn’t really surviving. Think about this, under this theory world peace is achievable— we put a nuke plant in every country and whoever is in charge just threatens to cook that sucker off if anyone invades. It’s just not something anyone would do. Scorched earth works like Moscow in 1812– a strategy to deny the enemy resources to sustain in the field. But the threat of murdering your own people and making your country uninhabitable just isn’t something even a dictator does. Is Ukraine going to elect Zelenskyy after he’s made them glow in the dark and gifted all their grandkids birth defects. And— it probably wouldn’t really work.
February 18, 20223 yr Wrong side of the river. Putin is going to allow Ukraine to exist, but I think he is going up to the river. Maybe. But to my second point….the threat tells Germany to get off its ass, because if I’m going down, you’re going down with me.
February 18, 20223 yr 11 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said: It probably wouldn’t really work and also even if it did you’d be irradiating your home and the people you want to live? It’s just not a credible threat, it’s like if the United States had all our nukes pointed at ourselves and we claimed we’d blow up any army that crossed our border, but not till they were already in Tucson. Dirty bombs aren't even real. It's been one of the biggest fear tactics used
February 18, 20223 yr Not a realistic option. Or even in any calculus. Let’s stay in the realm of the possible.
February 18, 20223 yr The chair is against the wall. The chair is against the wall. John has a long mustache.
February 18, 20223 yr Dirty bombs aren't even real. It's been one of the biggest fear tactics used Chernobyl is real. And it irradiated a fuckload of Europe.If I’m Ukraine, I put it in play. You threaten my survival, I pull the cord on the suicide vest. They don’t have any other play.
February 18, 20223 yr Not a realistic option. Or even in any calculus. Let’s stay in the realm of the possible. Oh, I’m confident it won’t be in play.But it should be. Even if it’s just a crazy-ass threat.
February 18, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said: Chernobyl is real. And it irradiated a fuckload of Europe. If I’m Ukraine, I put it in play. You threaten my survival, I pull the cord on the suicide vest. They don’t have any other play. How many died? It's more of a terror tactic than anything. And we are talking about a huge reactor that blew up and released radiation. How is a tiny dirty bomb going to do any harm? It will disperse too wide and too fast. The only casualty would be from the actual explosion
February 18, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, 52-80 said: I dont see the CR on this infographic You mean like this? Edited February 18, 20223 yr by bolverk
February 18, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, Patricio Swayze said: John has a long mustache. Karl: Right, World War Two and what the French did, everyone needs a code. A code, when you're in the army and that. And to sort of give the go ahead if we want to go into battle and stuff, so uh. The weird thing is, d'you know what theirs was? Ricky: Go on. Do you? Karl: Yeah I know what it is, bit weird. Steve: So what was the French code.. Ricky: For what? Karl: To sort of say, 'right, yeah go on'. Ricky:But they had more than one. Karl: On this day.. Ricky :But I don't know what day it is. It's like saying 'what am I thinking of?'. What was the battle, what was the.. Look at him, look at him, he's genuinely confused that I've asked this question. Right.. Karl: It was.. Ricky: No. If you ask me a question, ask me the question correctly. 'What was the code for battle..', during what battle? Karl: World War Two. Ricky: No that's not a battle; that's a war. Karl: Yeah it was in a war, yeah. Ricky: I don't know what to do. He confuses people. Steve: Alright okay, what was it Karl? What was the code, what was the French code? Ricky:Yeah, what are you thinking of? Karl:' John's got a moustache'. *Ricky laughs* Ricky: My lungs are gunna brust. Steve: What are you talking about? Karl: That was a code that the French used, d'you know like.. I just think it's a bit daft, right, because you could come up with that by mistake. Ricky: Yeah, two French blokes talking in the trenches, and they see a Major walk past and go, 'oh look, John's got a moustache', and they all go and he goes 'no I was just talking'. What are you talking about? Karl: Well the way, I don't think that's a good code. I've not, you know.. Ricky: I don't believe it is the code. Karl: No it is, seriously. Steve: And would it have been said in French? Karl: Yep. Steve: Okay. Ricky: Yep, yep, guessing, yep, yep. Karl: No, but.. Ricky: What? Karl: Because it's not a very good code. D'you know like we've talked in the past about things you don't see and I said, '..an old man eaten a Twix'. Now if they used that that would never, that's safe, cause noone's ever going to see an old man having a Twix. Ricky: What do you mean? Karl: Well use that as a code. Don't use a saying - 'John's got a moustache' - that could crop up. It's like 'the war's kicked off, how'd that happen?', 'well I said 'John had a moustache', 'oh!'. Ricky: Two French blokes would never be saying, 'John's got a moustache'. Why would they? Karl: Cause back then they were fashionable. Edited February 19, 20223 yr by SimonBolivar
February 19, 20223 yr 19 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said: Karl: Right, World War Two and what the French did, everyone needs a code. A code, when you're in the army and that. And to sort of give the go ahead if we want to go into battle and stuff, so uh. The weird thing is, d'you know what theirs was? Ricky: Go on. Do you? Karl: Yeah I know what it is, bit weird. Steve: So what was the French code.. Ricky: For what? Karl: To sort of say, 'right, yeah go on'. Ricky:But they had more than one. Karl: On this day.. Ricky :But I don't know what day it is. It's like saying 'what am I thinking of?'. What was the battle, what was the.. Look at him, look at him, he's genuinely confused that I've asked this question. Right.. Karl: It was.. Ricky: No. If you ask me a question, ask me the question correctly. 'What was the code for battle..', during what battle? Karl: World War Two. Ricky: No that's not a battle; that's a war. Karl: Yeah it was in a war, yeah. Ricky: I don't know what to do. He confuses people. Steve: Alright okay, what was it Karl? What was the code, what was the French code? Ricky:Yeah, what are you thinking of? Karl:' John's got a moustache'. *Ricky laughs* Ricky: My lungs are gunna brust. Steve: What are you talking about? Karl: That was a code that the French used, d'you know like.. I just think it's a bit daft, right, because you could come up with that by mistake. Ricky: Yeah, two French blokes talking in the trenches, and they see a Major walk past and go, 'oh look, John's got a moustache', and they all go and he goes 'no I was just talking'. What are you talking about? Karl: Well the way, I don't think that's a good code. I've not, you know.. Ricky: I don't believe it is the code. Karl: No it is, seriously. Steve: And would it have been said in French? Karl: Yep. Steve: Okay. Ricky: Yep, yep, guessing, yep, yep. Karl: No, but.. Ricky: What? Karl: Because it's not a very good code. D'you know like we've talked in the past about things you don't see and I said, '..an old man eaten a Twix'. Now if they used that that would never, that's safe, cause noone's ever going to see an old man having a Twix. Ricky: What do you mean? Karl: Well use that as a code. Don't use a saying - 'John's got a moustache' - that could crop up. It's like 'the war's kicked off, how'd that happen?', 'well I said 'John had a moustache', 'oh!'. Ricky: Two French blokes would never be saying, 'John's got a moustache'. Why would they? Karl: Cause back then they were fashionable.
February 19, 20223 yr 30 minutes ago, FartingMonk said: How many died? It's more of a terror tactic than anything. And we are talking about a huge reactor that blew up and released radiation. How is a tiny dirty bomb going to do any harm? It will disperse too wide and too fast. The only casualty would be from the actual explosion Dude....seriously? How many died from Chernobyl? Even conservative estimates put it at tens of thousands of premature deaths due to radiation. And it terrorized much of europe. Yes, its ONLY value is as a terror tactic. I agree. And terrorism is the best available weapon for an outgunned opponent. We don't have to like it, it's just the way things be.
February 19, 20223 yr It probably wouldn’t really work and also even if it did you’d be irradiating your home and the people you want to live? It’s just not a credible threat, it’s like if the United States had all our nukes pointed at ourselves and we claimed we’d blow up any army that crossed our border, but not till they were already in Tucson.
February 19, 20223 yr As we continue to debate whether Ukraine should threaten to kill tens of thousands of Ukrainians to save Ukraine via a method that probably wouldn’t work, I am asking you to watch this completely insane video released on the Russian Defense Ministry Twitter (hashtag we are with you Kamila):
February 19, 20223 yr I'm pretty sure threatening to blow up a nuclear reactor will scare our European Allies alot more than Putin
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