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3 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I love when this happens.  Titties for tatties!  Except we are going to expel the Syrian interests section of the Russian embassy

He had been removed earlier. What not awesome is that RIA/Novosti chose to announce it on the same day they are publicizing the Russian response to us, which says that we have not adequately met their demands and they will respond with “military-technical measures” (Kremlin jargon to mean almost anything).

https://diplopundit.net/2022/02/14/on-russias-diplomats-day-moscow-kicks-out-us-embassy-dcm/

 

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I have scanned the Russian set of demands (that is what it is) delivered to our Ambassador if we are to avoid “military-technical measures.” Up front— presented as a package deal that is take or leave (the answer will be leave). No talking about anything else till this is resolved:

- Written guarantees of no future NATO expansion (not just Ukraine).

- Removal of any non-local military infrastructure or troops from all of NATO Central and Eastern Europe

- No more training with Ukraine, no advisors, no weapons, any weapons given already have to to go away.

- Minsk agreements have to be in place before any Russian deescalation 

- “No invasion of Ukraine and none planned.”

This is a hardening of positions and in no way is it a good sign.  It’s the double down, chips to the table.  And don’t read anything into the last bullet, they aren’t gonna write “and oh yeah we’re gonna invade Ukraine.” 

 

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2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I have scanned the Russian set of demands (that is what it is) delivered to our Ambassador if we are to avoid “military-technical measures.” Up front— presented as a package deal that is take or leave (the answer will be leave). No talking about anything else till this is resolved:

- Written guarantees of no future NATO expansion (not just Ukraine).

- Removal of any non-local military infrastructure or troops from all of NATO Central and Eastern Europe

- No more training with Ukraine, no advisors, no weapons, any weapons given already have to to go away.

- Minsk agreements have to be in place before any Russian deescalation 

- “No invasion of Ukraine and none planned.”

This is a hardening of positions and in no way is it a good sign.  It’s the double down, chips to the table.  And don’t read anything into the last bullet, they aren’t gonna write “and oh yeah we’re gonna invade Ukraine.” 

 

I made that poker analogy a few pages back and yeah it seems like Russia was short stacked and made a big bet on the river.  I think they were more or less surprised that the west raised them and said well I think you have two 10s.  Russia is looking at their chips and seeing if that all in shove is the only way to win.  That might be uncle vlads move right now

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11 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Also, Finland isn't going to move to NATO for at least a decade.
And Ukraine is way below the criteria for admission.  Kind of like aggy taking the GRE.  Forgeddabouddit.

On a more serious note, did you know that this is FInland's Prime Ministe r?  Bet you didn't.

image.png.c33eb1dca45b4894e50fc83e368e61c4.png  image.png.89d31c4b37377c59e9dedcb15ffaf2b3.png

I hope everyone appreciates just how old it makes all of us that we are sitting here lusting after a head of government.

3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This morning lots of heavy shelling across the entire front line in Luhansk.  Early Russian reports of shelling a school in Luhansk were wrong— the school is on the Ukrainian side of the LOC and was hit by separatist fire. Several injuries, no deaths.

To note— this is NOT unusual in the East, what’s unusual is Russian state media coverage. Also this:

 

Yeah--an embassy burning documents is definitely not an indication that Russia is drawing down.

But that does raise the question--what the fuck was the play with the "we're sending our troops back to their barracks" storyline on Tuesday?  It apparently didn't really fool anyone.  And now it just confirms that Russia has been lying about all this all along.

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I hope everyone appreciates just how old it makes all of us that we are sitting here lusting after a head of government.

Yeah--an embassy burning documents is definitely not an indication that Russia is drawing down.

But that does raise the question--what the fuck was the play with the "we're sending our troops back to their barracks" storyline on Tuesday?  It apparently didn't really fool anyone.  And now it just confirms that Russia has been lying about all this all along.

If you dwell in the information space in Europe, it got them “US Intelligence Wrong Again” headlines across both disinformation and mainstream outlets.  Further confusion, further division, some egg on the Americans’ faces.  And remember, they don’t care if they get egg on their face. 

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

But that does raise the question--what the fuck was the play with the "we're sending our troops back to their barracks" storyline on Tuesday?  It apparently didn't really fool anyone.  And now it just confirms that Russia has been lying about all this all along.

Russia's MO is to put out a huge volume of easily debunked lies and then rely on the resulting distrust to operate more freely and without concern of immediate consequences. 

The Russian mitary has been outright lying about unit and force deployment for the last couple weeks - debunked by US military and OSINT alike - but they're still using their own lies to justify the resulting escalation.

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9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Oh my fucking God.

Anyone remember the last time the Brits announced an alliance with an Eastern European country that they couldn't possibly defend against aggression?

I wouldn't blame Poland for being worried about their eastern borders while hearing Germany wanting to stay out of conflicts with Russia. Poland is already having to deal with crap from Belarus. 

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6 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Interesting and informative poll came out here last week from one of the regular pollsters in the big periodicals. While the overall results aren't necessarily surprising (only 33% of Germans chose as the appropriate govt response type of supportive measures to Ukraine either in the form of weapons deliveries (15%) or stopping NS2 (18%)), a couple of other things are interesting:

 

1. One third of Germans essentially support the Crimea-ization of the "People's Republics", supporting a "referendum" for Russian-speaking regions to choose to leave Ukraine, which is essentially even more hostile to Ukraine than just "Germany should stay out of it";
 

2. The Center-right CDU and the Greens are the "most friendly" to Ukraine, but even so, a whopping 61% of those support either an independence vote or complete German absention from involvement; the "most hostile" are the former DDR communists of Die Linke, with 78% in favor of the absention/referendum options and the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland at 76%, with the SPD supporting those measures at 64% and the Free Dems at 62%. So almost exactly the same amount of Germans support the Republics breaking away completely as delivering weapons/halting NS2. That is shocking IMO.


And that is a remarkably consistent position across the entirety of what is a fairly wide political spectrum here. Good thing for Ukraine that Germany doesn't have a say on it.

 

Translation of the graphic:

Ukraine-Conflict: Only every third for more active support

"The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has intensified in recent weeks. How do you think the federal government should behave?"

Dark Blue: Supporting Ukraine with arms supplies so that it could defend itself in the event of a Russian invasion.

Turquoise: Prevent the NS2 gas pipeline from being put into operation so that Russia cannot deliver additional gas to Germany bypassing Ukraine.

Grey: Do not support either of the conflicting parties and stay out of the conflict

Light Blue: Work to ensure that the Russian-speaking regions in eastern Ukraine can decide in free elections whether they want to remain part of Ukraine

 

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==============================

Ukraine conflict: Only one third of Germans in favor of more active support for Ukraine
 

Hamburg, February 10, 2022 - While diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the Ukraine conflict are in full swing, especially in Germany, France and the United States, only one-third of Germans want the German government to provide more active support for Ukraine. According to a recent survey by the market and opinion research institute Ipsos, only 15 percent of German citizens are in favor of German arms deliveries to Ukraine. 18 percent believe the German government should prevent the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from going into operation as part of conflict resolution.

......

And just an interesting side-note from the full polling report...I guess you can take the Ossi out of the USSR, but you can't take the Russia out of the Ossi.

East Germans more concerned about restraint
In the eastern German federal states, at 42 percent (compared to 35% in total) there is an above-average number of respondents who advocate Germany not intervening in the Ukraine conflict. Accordingly, only 8 percent of East Germans (vs. 15% overall) consider arms deliveries from Germany and 14 percent (vs. 18% overall) to stop Nord Stream 2 as a suitable means of conflict resolution. In contrast, free elections in eastern Ukraine about remaining in Ukraine are slightly more in favor of eastern Germans with 36 percent approval (vs. 32 percent overall).

 

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-02/Ipsos-PI_Einstellungen-zum-Ukrainekonflikt_Politische-Frage-des-Monats_Feb2022.pdf

 

Thanks for the continuing great information. 

two comments:

  • does anyone not believe that Russia misinformation teams aren't extremely busy on german social media?
  • allowing people to vote on breaking away from their country (or other group) might sound fair, it's a ridiculous concept. 50% + 1 person should be allowed to dictate the nationality of the 50% - 1 minority? 

Let's say that Putin was really worried about the Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine, then let them emigrate to Russia.

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

But that does raise the question--what the fuck was the play with the "we're sending our troops back to their barracks" storyline on Tuesday?  It apparently didn't really fool anyone.  And now it just confirms that Russia has been lying about all this all along.

I genuinely think that Putin just enjoys having the power to fuck with everyone.

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23 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I hope everyone appreciates just how old it makes all of us that we are sitting here lusting after a head of government.

Do you even Kaja Kallas bro?

If it is wrong to lust, then I don’t want to be right. I do it so my Pito won’t rust, and that is my plight. 

So lust I shall until I die; What else is there for a man to do? Even heads of state apply, but not @Vic Mackey’s crew.

It is not erroneous. It is just. So until they make it felonious, I will continue to lust. 

Go forth and lust, as concupiscence is part of life. Do not be in disgust. Choose your mistress or your wife. 

Lust I say! And do it today!
Lust from your loins and don’t delay! Lust so your Pito won’t decay!

Lust all you want pinche güey! It’s the American way! 

 

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13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Thanks for the continuing great information. 

two comments:

  • does anyone not believe that Russia misinformation teams aren't extremely busy on german social media?
  • allowing people to vote on breaking away from their country (or other group) might sound fair, it's a ridiculous concept. 50% + 1 person should be allowed to dictate the nationality of the 50% - 1 minority? 

Let's say that Putin was really worried about the Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine, then let them emigrate to Russia.

 

 

 

I really think you are way out of line with this cynicism towards the views of the German people. They had great success providing a safe, secure environment for their own southern neighbors to determine their own path forward via referendum, and they simply would like to afford others the same opportunity to better themselves through the ballot box. Why do you hate democracy?

 

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8 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Russia is a fire dept that sets your house on fire and then gives you a list of demands before they will put out the flames

There was a dude during the Roman empire named Crassius that did this.  He had his owned fire department.  Wealthy nobles homes would be set on fire.  His fire brigade would show up.  He would force the homeowner to sell at pennies on the dollar and then put the fire out.  After it was done he would sell the house back at full price

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2 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

There was a dude during the Roman empire named Crassius that did this.  He had his owned fire department.  Wealthy nobles homes would be set on fire.  His fire brigade would show up.  He would force the homeowner to sell at pennies on the dollar and then put the fire out.  After it was done he would sell the house back at full price

Crassus was a fucking genius.  He got rich originally during the prescriptions of Sulla, in which the government (led by Sulla) seized the property of enemies of the regime and sold the property off at auction (which was rigged to sell at low prices to people who were loyal to Sulla, like Crassus).  His wealth before the Parthian expedition was around $14B, which made him the richest man in Rome and puts him pretty high up there in world history.  And that's pretty impressive for a guy who (1) wasn't a head of state/government and (2) never created any wealth.

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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Crassus was a fucking genius.  He got rich originally during the prescriptions of Sulla, in which the government (led by Sulla) seized the property of enemies of the regime and sold the property off at auction (which was rigged to sell at low prices to people who were loyal to Sulla, like Crassus).  His wealth before the Parthian expedition was around $14B, which made him the richest man in Rome and puts him pretty high up there in world history.  And that's pretty impressive for a guy who (1) wasn't a head of state/government and (2) never created any wealth.

It's just like uncle Vlad.  He maybe the richest guy in the world.  No one cares to say it though

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2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

He was a genius until he decided he needed some military success to keep up with Ceasar and Pompey and got himself killed by the Parthians.

Well, we all make mistakes.

And actually, since @FartingMonk draws the analogy to Putin, one wonders whether this might not be Putin's Parthian Expedition.

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There was a dude during the Roman empire named Crassius that did this.  He had his owned fire department.  Wealthy nobles homes would be set on fire.  His fire brigade would show up.  He would force the homeowner to sell at pennies on the dollar and then put the fire out.  After it was done he would sell the house back at full price

giphy.gif
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1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

There was a dude during the Roman empire named Crassius that did this.  He had his owned fire department.  Wealthy nobles homes would be set on fire.  His fire brigade would show up.  He would force the homeowner to sell at pennies on the dollar and then put the fire out.  After it was done he would sell the house back at full price

 

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I had a Zoom call meeting with a client this morning.  Turns out he's in Ukraine now. We had a long talk about what he thinks is happening, and will happen going forward.

He's not that worried about what's going on, says the bars, and restaurants are all full.  People are going about their daily business. His biggest concern is he's got to go to Budapest for business, and is concerned he may not be able to get back in country.

He's of the opinion it won't be a full scale invasion, but more of a land grab to solidify his Crimean holdings. He doesn't think Russia will be happy with the outcome because Ukraine is stronger than it was 8 years ago. No idea how much of what he says is good intel, but talking to him this am he just wasn't that concerned.

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Crassus was a fucking genius.  He got rich originally during the prescriptions of Sulla, in which the government (led by Sulla) seized the property of enemies of the regime and sold the property off at auction (which was rigged to sell at low prices to people who were loyal to Sulla, like Crassus).  His wealth before the Parthian expedition was around $14B, which made him the richest man in Rome and puts him pretty high up there in world history.  And that's pretty impressive for a guy who (1) wasn't a head of state/government and (2) never created any wealth.

He was definitely smarter than Titus Pullo.

5f45614b6aecffc099f1307524b71ce9.jpg

 

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48 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I actually really like this move.  This is not a defensive alliance, it’s intel  and tech and capability building. First read the Russian demands about Western trainers and weapons and cooperation with Ukraine.  The U.S. could not announce a pact like this at the moment without sparking World War III. So instead, the U.K. and Poland— our very bestest friends-  announce it. Do you think Russia gets the message?

Second, UK-PL assistance is meaningful. The UK is the most capable military power in NATO besides us and MAYBE the French. On intel— do you realize how fucking good the Poles are and how much they hate Russians? Do you know how much Russian blood was spilled in Chechnya with the support and prodding of Polish spooky people? You can have no better partner in the “let’s fuck up Russia” game. 
 

Upthread we talked about a “softer” version of NATO for Ukraine.  Well, we are seeing one version of what that is.  The security guarantee wasn’t coming but this is second best and from a messaging standpoint, think of Johnson and Duda throwing middle fingers at Putin as Biden stands there and smiles. 

And they could invite the US to join. Just saw this from the US Embassy Kyiv. We are announcing who is doing what. Not sure if people are tracking certain drone flights, but we have one 24/7 over the country and I am sure they have the capacity to track battery fire. 

 

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1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I actually really like this move.  This is not a defensive alliance, it’s intel  and tech and capability building. First read the Russian demands about Western trainers and weapons and cooperation with Ukraine.  The U.S. could not announce a pact like this at the moment without sparking World War III. So instead, the U.K. and Poland— our very bestest friends-  announce it. Do you think Russia gets the message?

Second, UK-PL assistance is meaningful. The UK is the most capable military power in NATO besides us and MAYBE the French. On intel— do you realize how fucking good the Poles are and how much they hate Russians? Do you know how much Russian blood was spilled in Chechnya with the support and prodding of Polish spooky people? You can have no better partner in the “let’s fuck up Russia” game. 
 

Upthread we talked about a “softer” version of NATO for Ukraine.  Well, we are seeing one version of what that is.  The security guarantee wasn’t coming but this is second best and from a messaging standpoint, think of Johnson and Duda throwing middle fingers at Putin as Biden stands there and smiles. 

No--I get it.  

The UK may be a political shitshow.  But it has the capability to project power, particularly in Europe.  From bases in Poland and Romania and from its carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy could deny the Russian Air Force theater air supremacy and make it very dangerous for those Russian SU-25s and MIL-28s to operate.  So the British could declare a "no-fly zone" over eastern Ukraine and go a long way toward enforcing it.

Poland is also a political shitshow--it's kind of part of their national identity.  But you're right that their intelligence services are very capable.  And beyond that, Poland is probably our closest intelligence relationship outside of the Five Eyes (as detailed in John Pomfret's really excellent book, "From Warsaw with Love.").

My concern isn't that the combination of the UK and Poland isn't capable.  It's that it is.  And their involvement could easily lead to an escalatory cycle that cannot be controlled.

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9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Poland is also a political shitshow--it's kind of part of their national identity.  But you're right that their intelligence services are very capable. 

They also happen to the a location where advanced, American anti-ballistic missiles happen to be deployed

Missiles in Poland & Putin not a fan

Quote

But for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the military base in Poland, and another in Romania, are evidence of what he sees as the threat posed by NATO’s eastward expansion — and part of his justification for his military encirclement of Ukraine. The Pentagon describes the two sites as defensive and unrelated to Russia, but the Kremlin believes they could be used to shoot down Russian rockets or to fire offensive cruise missiles at Moscow.

 

Mr. Putin has been fuming about American missiles near Russia’s border since the Romanian site went into operation in 2016, but the Polish facility, located near the village of Redzikowo, is only about 100 miles from Russian territory and barely 800 miles from Moscow itself.

 

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Just now, Macanudo said:

I think what you're trying to say is this business will get out of control.   It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.

I think we should be monitoring the sewage treatment facilities near the areas of troop deployment.  If they show an uptick in incoming fecal matter, we're hosed, because as we all know......the rooskies don't take a dump without a plan.

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From a European standpoint, the Polish-UK-Ukraine pact is interesting as it puts a lot of dents in the idea of a common EU foreign and security policy led by France and Germany.  The timing and messaging here is important— as things start to fray, Poland decides that France and Germany are doing too much leading from behind and promptly makes a deal with the country the French and Germans want to distance themselves from and with the country that just left the club. 
 

And Poland can’t be waved away. Yes it has major rule of law issues, yes it’s obstructionist in the EU at times, yes it’s a net recipient of funds. But it’s got 38 million people and legitimate military capabilities that it’s upgrading, it’s steadily boosting the U.S. presence in country, it’s strategically located, and it has an activist foreign policy of its own.  And now not only does Europe have to balance NATO questions, but in any attempt to form a common foreign policy, Poland had this other “thing of ours” that it’s committed to. 
 

Hard to see this as anything else as an “alternate center of gravity” forming and it will be interesting to see if others jump on board.  The Lithuanians would be a logical choice. And the U.S. is obviously a silent partner. 

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

No--I get it.  

The UK may be a political shitshow.  But it has the capability to project power, particularly in Europe.  From bases in Poland and Romania and from its carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy could deny the Russian Air Force theater air supremacy and make it very dangerous for those Russian SU-25s and MIL-28s to operate.  So the British could declare a "no-fly zone" over eastern Ukraine and go a long way toward enforcing it.

Poland is also a political shitshow--it's kind of part of their national identity.  But you're right that their intelligence services are very capable.  And beyond that, Poland is probably our closest intelligence relationship outside of the Five Eyes (as detailed in John Pomfret's really excellent book, "From Warsaw with Love.").

My concern isn't that the combination of the UK and Poland isn't capable.  It's that it is.  And their involvement could easily lead to an escalatory cycle that cannot be controlled.

Rule Britannia !!

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  • immamac changed the title to Russia declares independence on behalf of the Ukraine so it can protect the Ukraine or something like that
  • immamac changed the title to Русский корабль - иди нахуй

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