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2020 Senate Elections


Patrick Bateman

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I occasionally go through and look at puzzle games for my phone.  Been trying out a few free versions recently, and holy shit are there a ton of MJ ads being run.  The ads are not targeted towards any one app, they are just ads taken out through Apple's ad service.    MJ has a lot of cash to burn if they are reaching out to people through in-app ads.

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I occasionally go through and look at puzzle games for my phone.  Been trying out a few free versions recently, and holy shit are there a ton of MJ ads being run.  The ads are not targeted towards any one app, they are just ads taken out through Apple's ad service.    MJ has a lot of cash to burn if they are reaching out to people through in-app ads.

or, those are very cheap and it's an easy way to reach people.

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2 hours ago, thepop said:

I mean maybe. It’s hard to rank them when you have McConnell, McSally, Loeffler, Cruz, Blackburn, Graham, etc.

 

5 hours ago, thepop said:

 

I’m betting on Johnson if (when) the Dems win the White House and senate this go round. 
Any list that doesn’t include the loon from Hawaii on the judiciary committee is partisan crap. America can do better on both sides at all levels in a lot of places. 

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If I had to list the 100 senators from worst to best, I’m not sure the first 53 wouldn’t be republicans. Spare me the “both sides are bad” thing cause no Democrats voted to keep dotard in office but every republican did. The worst dem is probably Manchen or Menendez tho.

Edited by thepop
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4 minutes ago, thepop said:

If I had to list the 100 senators from worst to best, I’m not sure the first 53 wouldn’t be republicans. Spare me the “both sides are bad” thing cause no Democrats voted to keep dotard in office but every republican did. The worst dem is probably Manchen or Menendez tho.

For the past 4 years, I'd absolutely list it like that and it's not even close. 

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6 minutes ago, thepop said:

If I had to list the 100 senators from worst to best, I’m not sure the first 53 wouldn’t be republicans. Spare me the “both sides are bad” thing cause no Democrats voted to keep dotard in office but every republican did. The worst dem is probably Manchen or Menendez tho.

*Romney

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2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Been getting some really awful last minute donation emails from McGrath in Kentucky.  SHE'S FINISHED!  HOW COULD YOU LET THIS HAPPEN!

Good god people, have some self respect.  You sound like Republicans.

I hate the daily emails. If they told me why they needed the money I'd be much more likely to give.

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Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Warnock may get close to 50 in GA next week. It will be a big miss if he falls just short and then has a run-off when it's the only race on the ballot. It's doubtful the run-off would anywhere as much attention and could easily swing back to the GOP candidate winning.

Control of the Senate could be at stake. If so, get ready for a $100 million runoff.

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3 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Control of the Senate could be at stake. If so, get ready for a $100 million runoff.

You could be right. For the losing Presidential side, it would be a major consolation prize to take/hold the senate majority as that would create a barrier to the president's agenda next year.

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2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

What's the latest on the timing of swearing-in of a senator winning a special election? If Mark Kelly and Warnock both win, shouldn't they be sworn in ASAP to replace unelected senators? Maybe not Nov. 4th but as soon as their race is certified, is there any justification of a delay?

I've been wondering that as well.

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3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Nah. Might be difference between 51 and 52. 

Anyone else feel like Wulaw might just be doing a long con on us?  He's so confident the Rs are going to get blasted and then if they don't, I could see him flipping and being like "HAHA, TAKE THAT LIBS!"

If not, sorry man, but it's the internet.  You never know.

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17 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Anyone else feel like Wulaw might just be doing a long con on us?  He's so confident the Rs are going to get blasted and then if they don't, I could see him flipping and being like "HAHA, TAKE THAT LIBS!"

If not, sorry man, but it's the internet.  You never know.

Dude- no long con. I will be up front that I want the GOP to control the Senate #1- if I can’t have that I want Manchin to be the deciding vote and run things #2, number 3 option would be 51-49 etc. 

But what I want has nothing to do with what I think will happen and how I make my analysis or make my bets. 
If I’m wrong I will own that. But I’m really good at handicapping elections- I think the only one I’ve ever blown- counting midterms- is the 2016 one. Lost big on that. 
If you can’t see and feel the energy from the last 3.5 years, and understand what’s happening, and see where the seats are in play and still think there any chance that the Dems aren’t going to take the Senate and the White House then the only thing I can say to you is I think you have your head so far up your own ass that you can’t see reality. 

TL/DR- I try to live in reality. I’m not Bama chick running around predicting a Doug Jones win bc that’s what I want to happen. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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flips:

Maine- dem

CO- Dem

AZ- dem

NC- Dem

IA- Dem

Bama- GOP


51/49 Dem when everything shakes loose and goes final  

if I’m wrong it will be because I guessed low instead of high and Dems also flipped (my order of likeliness) GA, GA, MT, AK, SC, TX, KS.  
I don’t think there’s anything else possible  unless I’m wrong about Trump in the Midwest - I think James is guaranteed to run ahead of Trump in MI, maybe by 2 or 3 points, so if that’s close enough he will flip that seat- but I truly don’t believe MI will be close at all.  

 

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

flips:

Maine- dem

CO- Dem

AZ- dem

NC- Dem

IA- Dem

Bama- GOP


51/49 Dem when everything shakes loose and goes final  

if I’m wrong it will be because I guessed low instead of high and Dems also flipped (my order of likeliness) GA, GA, MT, AK, SC, TX, KS.  
I don’t think there’s anything else possible  unless I’m wrong about Trump in the Midwest - I think James is guaranteed to run ahead of Trump in MI, maybe by 2 or 3 points, so if that’s close enough he will flip that seat- but I truly don’t believe MI will be close at all.  

 

This is actually what I think too, but unsure on IA.  SC would be a nice surprise.

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11 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is actually what I think too, but unsure on IA.  SC would be a nice surprise.

Note I have that all the way to 5th on my likely to flip list so I’m betting it doesn’t happen. 
I’ve got IA and NC races in lockstep between presidential and senate races. Whoever wins presidential in state likely to win the senate in that state. 

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Note I have that all the way to 5th on my likely to flip list so I’m betting it doesn’t happen. 
I’ve got IA and NC races in lockstep between presidential and senate races. Whoever wins presidential in state likely to win the senate in that state. 

I think the voters could make GA happen, but I don't trust the state government to allow that for one single second.  They will absolutely break every law and use every illegal tactic possible to stop that from flipping.  They already did it in 2018.

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

flips:

Maine- dem

CO- Dem

AZ- dem

NC- Dem

IA- Dem

Bama- GOP


51/49 Dem when everything shakes loose and goes final  

if I’m wrong it will be because I guessed low instead of high and Dems also flipped (my order of likeliness) GA, GA, MT, AK, SC, TX, KS.  
I don’t think there’s anything else possible  unless I’m wrong about Trump in the Midwest - I think James is guaranteed to run ahead of Trump in MI, maybe by 2 or 3 points, so if that’s close enough he will flip that seat- but I truly don’t believe MI will be close at all.  

 

Don't know about NC, IA, or MI.  I think we end up with a 50/50 with Michigan being a surprise or 51/49 if NC stays R.

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5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Warnock may get close to 50 in GA next week. It will be a big miss if he falls just short and then has a run-off when it's the only race on the ballot. It's doubtful the run-off would anywhere as much attention and could easily swing back to the GOP candidate winning.

I'm not sure about that this cycle. I think it's entirely possible that 1) IF Biden Wins AND 2) Dems win control of the senate with 51 already, the GOP will be too deflated and cash strapped to mount a major offensive, whereas national money will pour into Georgia to rub their noses in it. 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’d be extremely shocked if it’s not at least 51/49 D. 

Normally I'd agree but I think there is usually one surprise against the consensus.  That surprise could also end up being Texas or South Carolina going Dem and having 53/47 Dem split.

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14 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I'm not sure about that this cycle. I think it's entirely possible that 1) IF Biden Wins AND 2) Dems win control of the senate with 51 already, the GOP will be too deflated and cash strapped to mount a major offensive, whereas national money will pour into Georgia to rub their noses in it. 

 

 

Likely so. 

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42 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Normally I'd agree but I think there is usually one surprise against the consensus.  That surprise could also end up being Texas or South Carolina going Dem and having 53/47 Dem split.

If you want a surprise, then I'd really look at Alaska.  Alaska is hard to poll.  But the polls that are there show the incumbent well below 50%.  That's not great this late in the game.

The runner-up would be Montana.  I mean, we've already established that there's going to be a lot of ticket-splitting in Montana.  It's just a question of whether there will be enough.

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In RCP with R's up 45 to 46 with 9 tossups.   You can book the 45 D & 46 R's

Not really tossups for the R's--S.C, Montana, Georgia   You can book them.

Not really tossups for the D's-Maine, Minnesota

That leaves Arizona, Michigan, N.C. , Iowa

N.C. was in the bag for D's, 50/50 now and trending R. What a dumbshit Cunningham is.

Arizona-trending R, but likely D.

Michigan. R has a shot, good candidate,  but probable D

49 each and comes down to Iowa and N.C.    True 50/50's,  but I think N.C. goes R now.

 

 

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In RCP with R's up 45 to 46 with 9 tossups.   You can book the 45 D & 46 R's
Not really tossups for the R's--S.C, Montana, Georgia   You can book them.
Not really tossups for the D's-Maine, Minnesota
That leaves Arizona, Michigan, N.C. , Iowa
N.C. was in the bag for D's, 50/50 now and trending R. What a dumbshit Cunningham is.
Arizona-trending R, but likely D.
Michigan. R has a shot, good candidate,  but probable D
49 each and comes down to Iowa and N.C.    True 50/50's,  but I think N.C. goes R now.
 
 

Care to elaborate on your NC assertion? Polls haven’t moved much unless you’re looking at garbage like Trafalgar.
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