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2018 Rain Thread

Hollywood

By Hollywood
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Post Oak

Post Oak 20068

Posted
Posted

My wife signed us up for some Brazos river clean up today a couple months back.  She said we are still going to go this AM. I told her no way.  

She was insistent.  I showed her the first two pics in the Snek thread.

 

I'm now laying on the couch watching cartoons with my son and she's making breakfast tacos.  

What starts on Surly changes your Saturday 

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South Austin
South Austin

I'd keep playing.  I don't think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for quite a while.

RamjetFDO
RamjetFDO

Sorry ... just had to read it in this voice:  

NorthLoop
NorthLoop

That's called dusk

Patricio Swayze

Patricio Swayze 17058

Posted
Posted
My wife signed us up for some Brazos river clean up today a couple months back.  She said we are still going to go this AM. I told her no way.  
She was insistent.  I showed her the first two pics in the Snek thread.
 
I'm now laying on the couch watching cartoons with my son and she's making breakfast tacos.  
What starts on Surly changes your Saturday 


Dude, what a futile exercise. As long as the Brazos goes through Waco and aggy territory, that river will be toxic. Only solution is to raze those two community colleges.
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Bertelsen's 70 yard TD

Bertelsen's 70 yard TD 44

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On 10/19/2018 at 10:09 AM, phdhorn said:

No, that's just bodies on ground.  You want more like 751'.  Then it goes over the top of Mansfield and wipes out everyone and everything.  LCRA did this great realistic video of what would happen:

 

Recording something like that is exactly what I'd have done if I'd had the proper camera and editing equipment at age 9.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

Enjoy the one alien day out of another galaxy today, fuckahs.

Oh, and the F1 race where Louis Hamilton's already won it, they just have to formalize it.

(F1 cars are among the coolest things on wheels, but man those races are tough to watch.  Like the order of finish is set up about 2/3 of the way through the race and it usually holds up.  More like follow the leader.  But would mindfuck Britney tonight if I wanted to cough up the dough to see her, not really interested in listening to her).

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

Gonna have to wait on phDhorn to let me know how this is gonna affect next weekend because the forecast after this next deluge was looking gorgeous Thursday evening-Sunday evening.  Hopefully even thru Halloween.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Update:

Monday:  Morning OK, rain develops later, some of it heavy in places.
Tuesday:  Rain, but sort of a brief break; showers lighten as disturbance moves off to the NE.
Wednesday: This is the day to watch for.  That cutoff low will finally engage steering currents and move over Texas.  This system is potent and has a lot of moisture to pull from over Texas.  Widespread moderate rain, some places heavy.  Models setting up like a carbon copy of last week, strongest rains west of us, maybe a bit more SW than last week.  Could cause flood problems before it kicks out.  This is the day most like last week.
Thursday:  Rain tapers off and man we're finally in for 3-4 days of spectacular, mostly sunny weather.  Next weekend will be the best we've had since last spring.

 

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Stringer

Stringer 1398

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My wife woke up to that news and asked me to go grab some bottled water.  Annoying, but whatever.

I get there and it is Thunderdome.  People are taking away 4-5 flats of bottled water with probably 32 bottles per.  Just complete assholery.  Do you really need that much water?  It's the stupid fucking gas run last year, all over again.  

I grabbed the last flat, which was half busted open and a few large Evian singles.  We have multiple major cities within 3 hours of us.  I think we're going to have water.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Lobo said:

Sweet.  Have some rep.  But also-and seriously dammit---when can we get your Halloween forecast for Austin?  

Too early to say but almost certainly it'll be dry and nice.  One little disturbance looks to come and go quickly by Hallowe'en morning.  Other than that, I think it'll be fine.

Another thing is that the temps will edge up more into normal range.  Keep in mind that we've been doing almost 15°-20° under normal for Austin the past week, and about 10° below normal, well, since early September.  We went right from the 90's into the 70's, and lately have been in the 6o's.   Normal high for today?  79.8°.

Anyway I'd say it's about 90% no rain for Hallowe'en night.

7 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

PhD, does willa slam full force into the border wall and disappear? What happens to her after Thursday? It looks like she's aimed straight at us but we get a beautiful Thurs - Mon?

Yeah I thought I put the tropical storm stuff in.  The storms (including Willa) would never survive going over the mountains of Mexico.  If it were all flat, those storms would be a lot worse.  But the mountains rip apart storms, of course they dump up to 20" of rain sometimes while breaking apart in those mountains, mudslides, etc.  For us, the storms will simply be ripped apart and turn into a river of moisture and disturbed weather.  Normally they don't really factor in tons of rain themselves, but interacting with other stuff going on (fronts, other lows, etc.) they can really ramp up rain totals.

So, any storms coming inland into NW Mexico the next few days will shred but still have plenty of water.  Moving into Texas, it's likely they'll dump 3-4 inches in concentrated areas.  Where those are right now is impossible to know.  But of course even if they dump 2 inches on top of the lakes basin, that will be enough to flood.  Right now models are pinpointing more SW and S Texas than us.  But of course anything that happens up here will make flooding almost a reality.  I don't think this is going to be a "reach the spillway" levels or whatnot, but 1) if the rain hits exactly where it shouldn't, and 2) interacts with this front that has stalled below us and that other cutoff low moving NE above us into the central/northerm plains, yeah, Wednesday's gonna be a bitch - and yeah, the tropical systems are a chief factor in this.  The good thing is it'll all be in then gone in one day.  Then the dry weather starts taking over (next weekend is going to be spectacular).

tl;dr:  if we make it through Wednesday without flooding again (which right now I put smack dab at about 50%, will update this later), we'll be in the clear - literally - for awhile with rain/flooding.

2 hours ago, ftf82 said:

City of Austin has issued a city-wide boil water notice.  Never seen that before.

http://austintexas.gov/boilh2o

In Bee Cave we are not affected by this, but I know HEB here and in Lakeway will be open and full of panicky, zombie apocalypse housewives in their 500 foot long Suburbans, and oldsters in their Buick LaCrosse sedans buying 25 bottles of water today, because you know, it's likely most people are gonna die from this development.

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17259

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Stringer said:

My wife woke up to that news and asked me to go grab some bottled water.  Annoying, but whatever.

I get there and it is Thunderdome.  People are taking away 4-5 flats of bottled water with probably 32 bottles per.  Just complete assholery.  Do you really need that much water?  It's the stupid fucking gas run last year, all over again.  

I grabbed the last flat, which was half busted open and a few large Evian singles.  We have multiple major cities within 3 hours of us.  I think we're going to have water.

Yes, but have you lived until you've bathed in Evian?

Your wife played you on this one.

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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3419

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Stringer said:

My wife woke up to that news and asked me to go grab some bottled water.  Annoying, but whatever.

I get there and it is Thunderdome.  People are taking away 4-5 flats of bottled water with probably 32 bottles per.  Just complete assholery.  Do you really need that much water?  It's the stupid fucking gas run last year, all over again.  

I grabbed the last flat, which was half busted open and a few large Evian singles.  We have multiple major cities within 3 hours of us.  I think we're going to have water.

Yeah, we could, you know, boil it.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Light rain moving in now from SW.   WIll pick up this afternoon.  Light to moderate rain overnight.  Shouldn't be a flooder around here.

Tomorrow rain tapers off but remains off/on (40%).

Again, Wednesday is the day which could cause problems as all the shit converges (Mexico storm moisture, stalled front, low up north dragging a few legs through TX).  It's absolutely going to rain, where/how much is simply not a given yet.  Models continue to show most of it falling along SW of us Rio Grande area into valley.  But tomorrow should make it clearer.

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