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2018 Rain Thread


Hollywood

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Just now, Orange&White said:

Mansfield and Tom Miller gates opening at noon.

That's a good move.  If this were midsummer and no more rain were expected for another week or two, then I'd say they could hold off on that.

But it's not midsummer, and large amounts of rain are imminent for the next week or so.  Time to pass the water on down to the rice farmers.  Lucky bastages! ;)

 

 

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The wall of water going into the lakes is of course incredibly massive but it's not long-lived.  This is why Travis won't get to the spillway.
Of course, if the rains hit again...

The current "regeneration line", that is, the line where the air gets disturbed and continually kicks up showers is still SW of the flooding areas, along a line NW from south of San Antonio through Uvalde, Rocksprings, and Sonora.  As long as this line is in place, the Hill Country will be at risk today for heavy showers.  Right now rain is light but could pick up again.

The cutoff low causing all of this is sitting between Tucson and Phoenix, and it's not moving very fast.  (How many times have we posted about cutoff lows and their potential devastating effect on Texas?).


BTW, this is pretty typical of a strong El Niño year.  Forecast for next few months is actually for Southern U.S. to be cooler than normal, northern U.S. warmer.  More precip in South/Southeast U.S. (that means us).  I think it's off to a good start.  The Niño kicked in in September.  Duh.

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20 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

The wall of water going into the lakes is of course incredibly massive but it's not long-lived.  This is why Travis won't get to the spillway.
Of course, if the rains hit again...

The "good" news is that the lake widens with every foot of elevation, so it takes an increasingly higher amount of inflow to raise the water level a given amount as it fills up.

#sunshinepumper

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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

i think they just showed houses totally underwater in that area. 

I think the ones they're showing now are further up the lake but the elevation is about the same.  Fuck.

Our place is right next the country club.  Boat is docked over by the dam.

Edited by GlenFromTheMailRoom
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2 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Nicely done.

As of now, we're considering the boat, day dock, catamaran, and most of downstairs to be total losses.  As of 3 or so hours ago the water was already over the beach area behind the house and that was before the evacuation was called for.   The caretaker of the property hasn't been able to make it back over to let us know the extent of the damage yet.

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Just now, GlenFromTheMailRoom said:

As of now, we're considering the boat, day dock, catamaran, and most of downstairs to be total losses.  As of 3 or so hours ago the water was already over the beach area behind the house and that was before the evacuation was called for.   The caretaker of the property hasn't been able to make it back over to let us know the extent of the damage yet.

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