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Markets still falling like whoa

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6 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Not to mention when you open back up after the stay at home orders you can only do so with limited capacity in restaurants / retail.  Sectors that are already on thin margins will make the smart decision and not even open back up.  The unemployment numbers are going to look like shit for a LONG time. 

So...maybe a +1500 day?   

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Quote

While stocks plummeted into a bear market at the fastest pace ever last month, millennials were losing their cool.

 
 

For the first time ever, a measure of stock-market exposure for millennials who use TD Ameritrade dropped below the average for clients of all ages in March. That shift came as the firm’s Investor Movement Index, which has tracked clients’ positioning since 2010, fell to a seven-year low, the Omaha, Nebraska-based brokerage said Monday.

 
 

“That has to do with living through a crisis as an adult -- for many of them it’s their first time,” said JJ Kinahan, the chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Every generation has that sort of moment where it’s like, ‘Wow.’”

 

that's a buy signal, boys

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I think there's a lot of upward pressure on the market right now

1.) People want it to go up. 

2.) We have 2 trillion in stimulus that hasn't really even rolled out

3.) The Fed is the treasury now. They're not even pretending. They are willing to print $ and guarantee pretty much any financial instrument right now (it seems) to ensure the stock market recovers quickly. 

4.) The Saudis and Russians are talking / are expected to make a deal

5.) Phase 4 stimulus and Phase 5, 6, 7, etc will just keep coming until we are back to normal

6.) Flattening the curve in Europe and Asia

7.) Optimism that the US is flattening the curve, testing is increasing apparently, and that we're talking about going back to work.

8.) Hydroxychloroquine

9.) We've become desensitized to the body count and a lot of Americans aren't 'seeing' the deaths.

10.) We haven't seen the #'s. As in, we don't know what the true economic impact is yet. When earnings are released we'll have an idea.

 

Now, if some of these don't pan out or if there's another curveball then we can go back down.

 

I have to say, though, that I'm incredibly impressed how much investors are willing to jump back in. 

I guess I'm going to lose some $ as the market explodes is back over the summer

V shaped recovery it is.

Oh well, wish I had invested some $ 2 weeks ago... last week... last Friday.

Guess I missed out.

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Portnoy’s day trading is a publicity stunt.

 

10 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Bingo

I don’t think so. He shows his trading screen and it verifies his positions.

As for the margin calls. He didn’t get one because of losses but because he held the position overnight which requires 50% equity . Day trades only require 25%. 
 

Edit. Boeing is up another 12 points pre-market. Lulz. 

Edited by TonyTexas

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1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

I think there's a lot of upward pressure on the market right now

1.) People want it to go up. 

2.) We have 2 trillion in stimulus that hasn't really even rolled out

3.) The Fed is the treasury now. They're not even pretending. They are willing to print $ and guarantee pretty much any financial instrument right now (it seems) to ensure the stock market recovers quickly. 

4.) The Saudis and Russians are talking / are expected to make a deal

5.) Phase 4 stimulus and Phase 5, 6, 7, etc will just keep coming until we are back to normal

6.) Flattening the curve in Europe and Asia

7.) Optimism that the US is flattening the curve, testing is increasing apparently, and that we're talking about going back to work.

8.) Hydroxychloroquine

9.) We've become desensitized to the body count and a lot of Americans aren't 'seeing' the deaths.

10.) We haven't seen the #'s. As in, we don't know what the true economic impact is yet. When earnings are released we'll have an idea.

 

Now, if some of these don't pan out or if there's another curveball then we can go back down.

 

I have to say, though, that I'm incredibly impressed how much investors are willing to jump back in. 

I guess I'm going to lose some $ as the market explodes is back over the summer

V shaped recovery it is.

Oh well, wish I had invested some $ 2 weeks ago... last week... last Friday.

Guess I missed out.

 

 

 

 

Always easy to jump out of the market when you are market timing.  Not so easy to know when to jump back in.  

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jump in when the market is backing its ass up with the resurrection

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5 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

another $1T coming down the pipeline .  #brrrrrrrrrrr

 

FED...

giphy.gif

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I don’t think so. He shows his trading screen and it verifies his positions.
As for the margin calls. He didn’t get one because of losses but because he held the position overnight which requires 50% equity . Day trades only require 25%. 
 
Edit. Boeing is up another 12 points pre-market. Lulz. 

He posted his screen after close last Friday and this is what he showed. What I find funny is he was telling people he was up like 15k on the year, but this makes it look like he’s down over $2MM?? I don’t know for sure.

621bd68103d404028b4714580c6e0309.jpg


a2b5dc62c263c8104febfecf85679be2.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, McCroskey said:


He posted his screen after close last Friday and this is what he showed. What I find funny is he was telling people he was up like 15k on the year, but this makes it look like he’s down over $2MM?? I don’t know for sure.

621bd68103d404028b4714580c6e0309.jpg


a2b5dc62c263c8104febfecf85679be2.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think most of that $2mm is unrealized losses on some Penn he bought in the high 20’s after his deal closed. 

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4 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I think most of that $2mm is unrealized losses on some Penn he bought in the high 20’s after his deal closed. 

Makes sense.  His claim was he loaded the account with 5.17 mill to start the year and now he has 5.185 mil, even after the first million dollar Boeing debacle.

It's entertaining to watch, that's for sure.  Looks like he missed out on a nice six-figure payout on Lulu too...sold 8000 shares Friday @ 181...it closed yesterday at ~195 and is set to open today at ~201, lol.

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18 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

If I had balls, I'd get back in these for tomorrow, because I'm about 99% sure today is gonna reverse.

I know nothing, apparently.

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41 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I know nothing, apparently.

predicting the market is like plugging in a USB device.  it's 50/50 chance but somehow we always get it wrong

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I know nothing, apparently.

Well you should know that it's very difficult if not impossible to time the market.    Good luck trying to determine when to get back in.

Edited by EuroHorn

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2 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

 

I don’t think so. He shows his trading screen and it verifies his positions.

As for the margin calls. He didn’t get one because of losses but because he held the position overnight which requires 50% equity . Day trades only require 25%. 
 

Edit. Boeing is up another 12 points pre-market. Lulz. 

I'm not saying he isn't trading, or trading real money. 

 

However, it is all about promotion of barstool sports.  He has absolutely gotten value out of this.

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16 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

predicting the market is like plugging in a USB device.  it's 50/50 chance but somehow we always get it wrong

bitch whatchu know about USB-C

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45 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Well you should know that it's very difficult if not impossible to time the market.    Good luck trying to determine when to get back in.

This right here.  I came close to getting out last week.  The market had come back decently from the low and the outlook was all doom and gloom and no one was even hinting at restarting the economy.  My broker (yes, I still call him that) talked me off the ledge for that reason and others.  I still haven't sold anything and I'm going to stick it out.  I'm still 7-10 years from retirement, but if I was 3-5 years away things would be different.

Had I sold everything and not gotten back in within a day or so (and some of my funds have a 30 day waiting period to get back in) I already would have "lost" about 10% upside opportunity.  Bottom line is that EuroHorn's point is well taken--you can't know when to get back in unless you have a crystal ball that works.

IMO, for a long term investor, this is one of the best buying opportunities you'll ever see.

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One year ago, the Nasdaq and S&P were  hitting  all-time highs. One year later the global economy looks a lot different, certainly a hell of a lot shakier. Nasdaq basically flat and S&P down ~6.5%. I realize the market and the economy are not the same thing and the market has been disconnected from reality for awhile, but when the quarterly earnings start rolling in, I will be interested to see how they align to this period last year. Will it have any effect? Who the fuck knows with the Fed printing press. 

image.thumb.png.18140f441f73d206dfba847ab56b1edb.png

 

 

 

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yeap

6 minutes ago, HouTex said:

IMO, for a long term investor, this is one of the best buying opportunities you'll ever see.

Yes, but you would have needed to sold off at some prior point to fund this current buying opportunity (assuming we're not introducing new money to the piggybank, of course)

 

5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

One year ago, the Nasdaq and S&P were  hitting  all-time highs. One year later the global economy looks a lot different, certainly a hell of a lot shakier. Nasdaq basically flat and S&P down ~6.5%. I realize the market and the economy are not the same thing and the market has been disconnected from reality for awhile, but when the quarterly earnings start rolling in, I will be interested to see how they align to this period last year. Will it have any effect? Who the fuck knows with the Fed printing press.

 

Yes... this upcomig week be intedasting when the big Q1 numbers come out

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Just wrote a smidge of covered calls for next Friday on QQQ, gotta get my gambling fix. $207 @$2.20 in 10 days; it’s at $199.6. Only way I kick myself is if it’s truly a V and approaches Feb highs in 10 days. Otherwise I pay for this weeks grocery delivery. Let it rain TP!!!
 

 

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Well I’m getting toasted today.  I pushed all my bear chips to the middle and will let them ride a few weeks.  I still think we test 2000 but the brrrrrr money machine disagrees.

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1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

predicting the market is like plugging in a USB device.  it's 50/50 chance but somehow we always get it wrong

And it usually turns out you had it right the first time, but your execution was wrong.

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I don't see how the markets don't go lower. Almost every company except CPG is withdrawing guidance and unlikely until Q4 to have a reliable forecast. We have no clue of the second, third order knock on effects to the economy. With that said,  I was completely wrong about the markets in 2019 so....The FED prints money like brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

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Over the last 2.5 weeks I've gone from 50% cash in the 401k to 20% but dreaded every single re-allocation because it felt like chasing.  I hate chasing.

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38 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

original_205086873.gif

as much as I believe the story that is telling; I've learned a costly lesson in how much infinite Fed can prop up the market.
So I'm investing gambling now by buying both out of the money puts and calls - and I'll likely get fucked by that bitch named theta and an almost flat market for the next 60 days.
nobody forcing me to do it, but I'm bending over and asking for another please

BB G3: Louisiana @ Sam Houston State

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15 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Scew it. I'm riding my puts all the way to the scene of the crash.

Convenient, cuz that’s right where you’re headed.  I bet the FED beats you there by a half hour 

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No way we’re in Stage 4 as the following describes.
Content to stay (mostly) on the sidelines.
I think we have at least 6 more months of this. I think a train wreck is coming Oct/Nov when Q3 earnings are announced (the first quarter when things are supposed to be somewhat “back to normal”)...which may also coincide with the virus ramping back up.
Of course by then, the market may be back up to early 2020 levels and only fall back to where we are today.

And of course Brrr money being the complete wild card in all of this, who really knows

Stage three is stabilization. The panic subsides but the situation remains grim. Investors believed during the first stage that stock prices slide on a whim. Now they realize that equities stumbled for good reason, and that until that reason is eliminated, they will continue to struggle. Shareholders’ losses will not soon be recouped.

It appeared that’s where we were on March 30. Stocks halted their decline and even rebounded a little, thereby ending the impression that they will do nothing but fall.

This period is marked by turbulence. Stocks rally, sometimes furiously, only to be knocked back down. Investor sentiment varies between guarded optimism that the end is at least remotely in sight, and despair that the hope was false. This is typically the bear market’s longest period, extending for several months. (Several years for The Great Depression, but we do not wish to emulate that example.)

Stage four is anticipation. This is when stocks start their recovery. As with the bear market’s beginning, almost nobody recognizes its end until after the fact. The news at the time tends to be almost unrelievedly grim, accompanied by articles about how stocks’ golden days have passed. However, some investors perceive economic improvement distantly in the future. They make their bids, and stocks begin to rise

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Just now, UTexasFight said:


I think we have at least 6 more months of this. I think a train wreck is coming Oct/Nov when Q3 earnings are announced (the first quarter when things are supposed to be somewhat “back to normal”)...which may also coincide with the virus ramping back up.
Of course by then, the market may be back up to early 2020 levels and only fall back to where we are today.

 

 

I guess I would wonder why Q3 wouldn't already be in the process of being priced into the market now. I mean I can't imagine at this point anyone will be surprised by those gory numbers. 

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I’m just saying gory numbers people are expecting aren’t gory enough.

People aren’t going to rush out and spend tons of money the moment the 29% of the economy that’s currently closed re-opens.
Some will, but most(assuming they have any income) I bet will be saving every penny they can to build some sort of financial cushion to survive 2-3 months after almost losing their homes the first go round.

But then, that’s where brrr money will, I’m sure, step in and solve everything again.

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9 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

People aren’t going to rush out and spend tons of money the moment the 29% of the economy that’s currently closed re-opens.
Some will, but most(assuming they have any income) I bet will be saving every penny they can to build some sort of financial cushion to survive 2-3 months after almost losing their homes the first go round.

Do you even 'Merica bro?

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Do you even 'Merica bro?

Oh ‘Merica for sure will spend like crazy and not learn its lesson... but it won’t be in Q3.

 

Q3 will be for saving an “emergency fund”....that gets spent in Q4 on whatever dumbass fad Christmas gifts are in vogue this year.

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screw it, I am going all back in the market.  Got out 2/18/20 half way and then fully the middle of March. 

Cant bet against the brrrrrrrrrrrr

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I’m with txfight even though it opposes fed machine. All this market exuberance this week is based on euro flattening the curve and some areas around US seeing a thin ray of sun (both are good news). The issue is nobody knows wtf the back side of this looks like as the only country to have semi re-emerged is China and nobody trusts their shit. There’s no real free world precedent for what the backside of the curve looks like.

I would gladly sacrifice mistiming the bottom if it meant the market/economy/virus were all heading in the right direction on solid foundation, but I don’t think that’s the case currently.

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Posted (edited)

2 countries are guiding towards relaxing their distancing restrictions.

scandinavia looks to loosen the reigns next week, given same trajectory of infections.

feds quick intervention seem to stave off the big selloff - trading volume been settling down for a while now

 

i think we can go lower.  and we can go flat-for-long.  but i dont see a prolonged, precipitous drop from here.

 

but what do i know.  im always sticking my usb in the wrong way

Edited by 52-80

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39 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Q3 will be for saving an “emergency fund”....that gets spent in Q4 on whatever dumbass fad Christmas gifts are in vogue this year.

26603550-8169509-image-a-19_158560519798

 

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3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Over the last 2.5 weeks I've gone from 50% cash in the 401k to 20% but dreaded every single re-allocation because it felt like chasing.  I hate chasing.

Please tell me you're close to retirement age.  If you are under 50 or even a little older there is no reason to go to cash in your 401(K), ever. 

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I don't see us keeping with the historical, but it is indicative that market bottom trails unemployment spikes.

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Buy, buy , buy!!!!

Guys we almost went negative for a day... with all the good news? 
im glad the cooler heads prevailed and all the positive tailwinds carried us across the finish line!!!!

Covid-19? That was so last week

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19 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

Please tell me you're close to retirement age.  If you are under 50 or even a little older there is no reason to go to cash in your 401(K), ever. 

I work in oil and gas so I'm always a couple of weeks from "retirement" whether I want to or not.

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