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Markets still falling like whoa

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13 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Main street HAS been seeing serious pain - unemployment and evictions are at historic highs. None of the record stock market highs seem to have trickled down yet for some reason...

Wall Street has not fathomed the failing foundation of the economy - yet.

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GE and IHRT were some swing trades that I got too gun shy to pull the trigger on that would have been nice to sell today. I was eyeballing the hell out of them in April.

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Evictions are at historic highs?  With evictions having been put on hold in many places.  Please provide support for your statement. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-08-18/u-s-evictions-are-down-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic

With a few exceptions, every week of the pandemic summer through August 7 has seen fewer eviction filings than on average for the 17 cities where researchers at Princeton are publishing data. Eviction filings are down in Boston, where Massachusetts lawmakers effected some of the nation’s strongest state-level eviction protections, as well as in cities in Texas, where there are next to no eviction protections. In July 2020, filings were low relative to a 2012–2016 baseline in all these cities except Milwaukee, where filings shot back up late in June and July. Over the first week of August, filings were down everywhere except for Jacksonville.

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Was unable to edit.  wanted to add:

Edit - while I don’t think there is evidence that we are at “historic” highs, and in fact with the restrictions that have been put on landlords (some as law, some as judges preferences), I do think we’ve got the potential to get kicked over the ledge.  I’ve said it in other threads, but there will have to be a shared suffering by all.  Tenant loses job because their work place cut back/ahutdown due to Covid and can’t pay rent.  Landlord can’t pay mortgage now (don’t kid yourself, majority of landlords aren’t the rich 1%).   Lender has a bunch of landlords as well as regular home owners missing payments, and everyone wants to make the banks evil, but banks are just machines, and yeah, there are a handful that own the machines that are so rich none of this matters, but if the machine stops, lots of “normal” people running the machine now become the tenants that can’t make rent. Each group in the triangle is going to have to give a little to get through it, but if we keep things throttle back too long, people are going to run out of give.   

Edited by UT_OB1

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The Fed and evictions - the troubles

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/community-development-briefs/db-20200717-measuring-evictions-during-the-covid-19-crisis.aspx

“The severe consequences of eviction will be only amplified in a pandemic. Collinson and Reed (2020) connect evictions to increased risk of homelessness, mental health hospitalizations, and emergency room visits, situations which could put evicted tenants at a greater risk of contracting, spreading, and suffering complications from COVID-19 (CDC 2020). Studies have also shown that eviction can lead to job loss (Desmond and Gershenson 2020), an especially troubling outcome in a labor market already devastated by COVID-19. These factors are worth considering for policymakers concerned with avoiding future increases in evictions as the economic crisis continues.“

 

 

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2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

The Fed and evictions - the troubles

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/community-development-briefs/db-20200717-measuring-evictions-during-the-covid-19-crisis.aspx

“The severe consequences of eviction will be only amplified in a pandemic. Collinson and Reed (2020) connect evictions to increased risk of homelessness, mental health hospitalizations, and emergency room visits, situations which could put evicted tenants at a greater risk of contracting, spreading, and suffering complications from COVID-19 (CDC 2020). Studies have also shown that eviction can lead to job loss (Desmond and Gershenson 2020), an especially troubling outcome in a labor market already devastated by COVID-19. These factors are worth considering for policymakers concerned with avoiding future increases in evictions as the economic crisis continues.“

 

 

From your article, evictions were way down starting in March and have just returned to pre-Covid levels in SOME areas. They haven’t increased so much as to make up for all those that weren’t evicted in March-June, and we aren’t at historic levels of eviction country wide(or anywhere according for this and what I’ve read, but I’ll leave open the possibility it is somewhere)

 

Eviction filings plummeted at the beginning of the economic crisis in the United States, both in places that implemented broad eviction bans and those that did not. As of July 7,2roughly one-third of rental units in our study are no longer covered by temporary policies, and eviction filings have now returned to their prepandemic levels in those places no longer covered; filings remain subdued in places that have continued eviction bans.

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4 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

...

What is the delinquency rate - up or down - may be a better measure of that sector, Are banks lending to the landlord sector?

Quote

The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 86.2 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by September 13 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.

This is a 2.4-percentage point, or 279,457-household decrease from the share who paid rent through September 13, 2019 and compares to 86.9 percent that had paid by August 13, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.

“While it remains clear that many apartment residents continue to prioritize their housing obligations and that apartment owners and operators remain committed to meeting them halfway with creative and nuanced approaches, the reality is that the second week of September figures shows ongoing deterioration of rent payment figures - representing hundreds of thousands of households who are increasingly at risk,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President.
...

https://www.nmhc.org/research-insight/nmhc-rent-payment-tracker/

Not the full picture (doesn't encompass house rentals for example), but maybe it's representative of the landscape.

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16 hours ago, bernorange said:

If Main Street starts to see serious pain (and they might), I expect a 2008ish "gun to the head" meeting between JPow & Associates and Congress - the kind of discussion they had prior to TARP.

Unlike Bernake, Powell is a hack and doesn't have the guts or respect to pull it off.

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Quote

Some of the world’s wealthiest people have sold more than $3 billion of stakes in their major holdings since August, diversifying their fortunes as stock markets rebounded. ...

... In the week ended Sept. 11, insiders disclosed selling $473 million of shares, while buying only about $9.5 million.
...

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/super-rich-step-up-large-stock-sales-after-global-prices-surge

Smart money getting nervous about the future?

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27 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Smart money getting nervous about the future?

Profit taking off of an overly heated market, is more likely.

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I don't how right this is, but Twitter was saying that for the first time in history, options volume exceeded stock volume in August. Usually it's around 40%. Crazy, if true. Also explains how insanely expensive options have been.

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Just now, Eastwood said:

I don't how right this is, but Twitter was saying that for the first time in history, options volume exceeded stock volume in August. Usually it's around 40%. Crazy, if true. Also explains how insanely expensive options have been.

Newb investors are going to get FOCKED so hard. 

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3 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I don't how right this is, but Twitter was saying that for the first time in history, options volume exceeded stock volume in August. Usually it's around 40%. Crazy, if true. Also explains how insanely expensive options have been.

Robinhood has brought quite a large market of suckers into the market. I'm not sure of any other platform that so freely lets folks trade options

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4 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

... For the first time in history, options volume exceeded stock volume in August. ...

gambling >>>> investing

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Just now, Captainant said:

Robinhood has brought quite a large market of suckers into the market. I'm not sure of any other platform that so freely lets folks trade options

Not just freely, but without any guidance or resources. People come in with a basic understanding of margin and get their faces ripped off.

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