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Urban Meyer or bust


BurntOrange&White

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8 hours ago, dcar00 said:

to "risk" going for 2 against OU.  that would be admitting OU is the better team.

He's really admitting he didn't understand that his team was hot and 0U was on their heels, reeling, and dead solid ready to be gashed for two and the loss. This is lack of trust in his offense, which has just demonstrated for the last several minutes that they could do what was needed. His excuse in the presser that he "wanted to let the D win for us" is as lame as the rest of his bullshit excuses. Fuck him, we've seen more than enough. Urban or bust.

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13 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Herman needs to go, but when has one of his Texas teams gotten boat raced?

 

12 hours ago, Atticus said:

Last year's Baylor game was a boat race even though we scored a TD in the final second to bring the margin down to 14. We couldn't do shit all day.

The OU game last year was absolutely noncompetitive as well, despite the scoreline. It was obvious from the first series Texas was going to lose and at no point was that ever in question by anyone with eyes, even when Texas lucked into tying it up in Q3.

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46 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

He's really admitting he didn't understand that his team was hot and 0U was on their heels, reeling, and dead solid ready to be gashed for two and the loss. This is lack of trust in his offense, which has just demonstrated for the last several minutes that they could do what was needed. His excuse in the presser that he "wanted to let the D win for us" is as lame as the rest of his bullshit excuses. Fuck him, we've seen more than enough. Urban or bust.

sure but before that you would have to admit that OU was the better team for 90% of the game such that you had the better team on it's heels and needed to strike.  He always thinks its just players not executing not that his team and coaches aren't as good.  If they would just execute the team will win, OT is a new game right?  just execute what mensa tells you to do and you will win.  that is his only mindset.  Momentum is a myth....

but yeah, fuck him and hire Urban.

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15 hours ago, Horny04 said:

I read the article on ESPN+ about how we lost Quinn Ewers... Some of those quotes are damning. A lifelong Longhorn fan like him, as well as the legacy O linemen brothers who would rather play for Bama... Don't see how anyone can rationalize keeping that smug shit stain here any longer, even if we win out (although I don't see how we beat Iowa st or OU with our shitty team this year).

On a trip with the family & too lazy to look it up. Anyone have any of those damning quotes?

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4 hours ago, NorLa Horns said:

Let me address the " urban isn't coming here " people. 

1: urban wants to coach again. He wants to win more national championships. 

2: he needs a blue blood kinda program to do it. Preferably one with built in advantages like being the flagship university in the most fertile recruiting state in the nation. 

3: he would like nothing better than to fuck tom Herman sideways by not only taking his players, but his coaches and winning with them. 

If Urban won a title with the current coaching staff (sans Herman of course), that would have be some type record in the modern era of NCAA football. It would be truly astounding.

3 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

 If this is legit, pretty funny...  😁

10055471.jpeg?width=600&fit=bounds

Matt Leinart proving that he did indeed graduate from the University of Spoiled Children. Oh woe is me, I can't dine at a restaurant for 3 weeks. Fucking first world problems. Try working offshore on an oil rig for months on end, you Bush Push twat.

Shelley seems like a tease, but hope her Twitter activity doesn't cause trouble next season.

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5 hours ago, UDontKnow said:

If Urban won a title with the current coaching staff (sans Herman of course), that would have be some type record in the modern era of NCAA football. It would be truly astounding.

Matt Leinart proving that he did indeed graduate from the University of Spoiled Children. Oh woe is me, I can't dine at a restaurant for 3 weeks. Fucking first world problems. Try working offshore on an oil rig for months on end, you Bush Push twat.

Shelley seems like a tease, but hope her Twitter activity doesn't cause trouble next season.

You’re worried about Shelley’s Twitter activity?

 

You should probably check out Michelle’s before Tom got here. Honestly her Twitter feed should have been an indication that Tom has no control. 

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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8 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Any good info? @Fud @satyanash @RGBIII

Bobby Burton has this

Quote

There was a lot of chatter over the weekend, really starting Friday, about some possible moves behind the scenes on the coaching front. I reached out to a person of authority at UT for clarification. Here is his response: “I am 100 percent sure that Herman will not be fired if he doesn’t lose at least one more game.” Now, Herman could easily seek a job elsewhere if he wins out, and winning out would obviously also include a Big 12 Championship.

For those believing Herman is gone no matter what, it’s just not what I’m hearing from people with input on that decision process. Yet the marching orders for Herman are abundantly clear. Win or we will find someone who will.

 

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Coaching Compendium Part 1

Spoiler

I’m compiling this as a way to catch the new subscribers up on our reporting over the last five or six weeks, but judging by some of the comments we receive, the whole board can use a refresher on the coaching situation.

I’m going to break this into a couple of parts because it gets pretty long and the little attention span us primates do have should be devoted to football today.

If you’re just dying for more, type ‘Scoop’ or ‘Humidor’ in the search function and ‘check’ the ‘search titles only’ box.

We appreciate all the new business, and we especially appreciate how the new subscribers have entered the room. In evaluation I belabor the importance of fit. We’re adding a lot of good fits.

#####

October 9th Humidor:
 

Cigar note: It’s Texas-OU week and fundraising looks more like a GoFundMe for a campaign to change the school’s colors. The donors we know say the well is dry until the program plays to its potential. Even a win this week is only a temporary fix.
*whistles but in Glenn Frey from Beverly Hills Cop*


The heat was indeed on. I would learn not long after writing this, certain donors at the highest level were already saying Herman was done before the RRS, and we know how bad things got after that game.

Scenario #1 was already in play to some measure.

October 12th Scoop:

 

 

Right now I’m seeing three potential outcomes with varying degrees of likelihood: Tom Herman wins out and saves his job; there is a protracted coaching search; there is a swift, peaceful transition of power.
Let me follow that up with: Herman isn’t winning out; a protracted search, one that extends well into December, has the potential to decimate the roster and recruiting; a peaceful transition of power is ideal for improving the program’s short-term prospects.
Tom Herman: In case you couldn’t tell, Tom Herman is in very hot water. His seat began to warm last year but Chris Del Conte decided to support Herman revitalizing the coaching staff. After a 2-2 start that should be 1-3, Herman has very little chance of saving his tenure. The 25% chance I gave him of keeping his job on Saturday was generous as I worked to find out more. After further discussions I give him much less of a chance. Read between the lines.
It’s hard to find any source of support for Herman at this point. He’s made life tougher for the administration and he’s ticked off the boosters. The problem isn’t so much the record, but also the total lack of team discipline.
I’m going to delete any comments that delve into the political, but to paint a clear picture I have to dance around the third rail a bit. Some of Herman’s quotes over the summer ticked people off. “Who is Tom Herman to lecture me” is a common sentiment. Many blame him for how The Eyes of Texas situation was handled. He was seen as putting the school in a difficult position to deal with it head on. That doesn’t absolve Del Conte, they’re pissed at him too, but Herman entered the season with short leash.
Pride goeth before the fall, and also during the Fall. Herman’s inability to get out of his own way makes football almost worthless to discuss right now. If you were on the fence of whether or not he was meddling too much in the offense, I’m guessing Saturday was clarifying.
It’s same old Tom, and same old Tom nearly lost the team in 2017 and again in 2019. This is by far the worst things have been behind the scenes.
Further decimating any leverage Herman might have: his 2021 recruiting class looks transitiony. Given this class is already laboring, do you want this to be the transition class, or the loaded one with the five-star generational quarterback committed? This is easy math.
Chris Del Conte: Where it’s all bad with Herman, it’s a mixed bag with the Athletic Director. Let’s first start with the bad.
The extension to Herman is often cited as his biggest mistake but Del Conte’s inability to foster definitive resolution with player unrest (so much easier said than done) has more people rankled than the extension. Like betting on Herman the first time, the early extension was a calculated bet that didn’t hit. Del Conte had support for it, and it may not have even been his idea in the first place. If it wasn’t, falling on the sword is still his job, but it might restore a little more faith in him. At the time of the extension, it was seen as a long-term money saving play. It’s considered bad business but not an anchor around Del Conte’s neck.
The intertwining of pandemic and politics is terrible timing for Del Conte because it gives boosters much more leverage. Especially when you consider all the ongoing capital projects. Many are demanding he find a solution to TEOT and general player discord. With a weak figure at head coach that’s incredibly difficult to do. Dare I say, it’s impossible to do.
Del Conte is the one on the hook for fixing this long term. From what I can gather, he still has way more allies than obstacles, and he has the confidence of the president and BOR, but he definitely has a clear fundraising problem. Anecdotes have made their way to the forums here, but it’s even worse than what’s being let on from a financial standpoint at a time where the school took a giant haircut due to the pandemic.
I much prefer to discuss the good of Del Conte. He employs the Frank Windegger approach (old TCU AD) where good football improves the overall college experience on the surface, thus boosting enrollment and all that comes with it. Despite some of you getting into UT, it was even correlated to attracting better students as measured by GPA/SAT. Bad football is bad for the overall brand.
In the end it boils down to improving finances, and we know Texas loves its finances, but in theory this is a good thing for football fans who want to see coaches held accountable to a winning standard.
Del Conte is very proactive in situations like these. I’m sure he has books written on PJ Fleck, Matt Campbell, and a few others, but he’s also the sort to be very aggressive and aim high. If there’s a coach out there with a big enough personality to help the program overcome its current woes, that will help that coach’s case immensely. Del Conte needs help on that front. He needs a coach who can return the transactional nature of big time football to the program. It’s amazing how trivial standing with your teammates for a song after a game seems if you’re winning and developing into a millionaire.
CDC/Hartzell/BOR: It’s certainly a positive sign that I can roll these three actors into the same section. While there’s plenty of volatility in the Texas ecosystem, these three central figures are on the same page, with Del Conte having the support of Jay Hartzell and the Board. If we learned anything from the time Texas had the greatest coach of all time gifted to it (the only gift the school ever turned down) only to have it scuttled internally, it’s important to know the pulse of the president, AD, and Board of Regents.
The RRS is an annual opportunity for the decision makers and key boosters to meet and greet. To use an old and familiar phrase, it’s a good time to ensure the BBs are in the box.
The biggest immediate issue for this group is two-fold: 1) decide Herman’s fate, or, rather, allow him to continue to do it himself, and, 2) if Herman is to be removed, find a way to pay for the buyout.
If you’re reading between the lines, barring a major turn of events, #1 is mostly decided, and the only way that can happen is if the decision makers have a good handle on #2. I think they have a good handle on #2.
While expectations for the season and Herman were high, this group has not been caught flat-footed and they didn’t just start having real talks in the last couple days.
In years past we’ve mentioned, regardless of sport, to not expect a midseason firing. This year isn’t like years past and that outcome is within the realm of possibility. Recruiting is different now, and the Portal also has to be accounted for.
The Boosters: Given the financial climate, this group has more leverage than I can recall. Their finances are green while the school‘s are red. With the big cigars largely sitting on its collective pocketbook, Del Conte is getting to a point where he can’t afford to not make a move, especially since the boosters would foot the bill for it.
Whichever group covers that $20+ million will want a say in the ultimate hire. That’s a good thing, if and only if, Texas makes the most obvious call.

Everything seems to have aged well here, except perhaps that whole ‘Herman isn’t winning out’ bit. That remains to be seen. He does deserve credit for rallying the troops.

October 16th Humidor:

It’s worth your time to click the link to see what we wrote about The Eyes situation post-RRS. We like to keep the record straight to the degree we’re able. Still, that situation did Herman no favors whatsoever.

 

 

As you can imagine, we’ve been talking to sources of all stripes of late. We keep a handy little Google Doc where we store everything we hear, no matter how minor. It makes it easier to keep track of the situation, plus it makes it rather clear where the information overlaps and corroborates.
What we can share we will, and also tell you how much credence we give it. We’ll base that either on how many times we’ve heard it, or by who told us. You’re only as good as your sources and some sources are better than others. You’re also as bad as their agendas, but it’s typically not hard to read through agendas. Step 1 is caring to do so.
Scenario 1: The U in the title of this Humidor, you know, the strong, centralizing figure, is in play.
This is a delicate subject but if you think we would have hinted in his direction in the Scoop just for the fun of it, you haven’t been reading closely. In the span of 10 days we’ve gone from ’he will never coach at Texas,’ to Lee Corso’s favorite saying. We think the trilateral commission of president, AD, and BoR, would sign off on such a hire. Del Conte‘s mindset isn’t to win at all costs, but it’s to win at a lot of them. If he never coaches at Texas, it isn’t because he was found to be unsavory.
Credence: Money could become an issue. So too could another job potentially popping up. If this hire wasn’t doable word would have filtered out by now. If you want him to be the hire, no news is good news for now.
Scenario 2: No deal can be struck with option #1, due to financial constraints Herman returns.
I’ve heard this a couple of times, including on Thursday, and from somebody I hold in high regard. The thinking is money is just too tight to make a move unless it’s for a sure thing and there aren’t many sure things beyond death, taxes, and FITH.
Credence: We believe the money for action will be there when it’s needed. Herman doesn’t have many allies, and at this point, we can’t see this scenario unless he goes on a big winning streak, and by that, we mean probably the rest of the games. Absent a very impressive run of games, the only way he’d return is if the boosters didn’t want to foot the bill for his buyout. You can probably recall what we’ve been writing about how the boosters view Herman. Del Conte would have to rustle up a really bad alternative to Herman for the boosters to sit on their wallets. That’s highly unlikely, even in what looks like a limited field. The recruiting situation is also a factor that favors change, that is: the 2021 class is in poor shape, but 2022 can still be great.
Scenario 3: No deal can be struck with option #1, comprehensive search ensues.
Comprehensive search doesn’t mean you begin in late November and extend it well into December. Del Conte should be operating on this track in tandem with Scenario #1. I’m sure he is to some degree. We’ve heard a couple names of interest. We’ll hold them for now. One is widely mentioned; one we haven’t seen mentioned yet. That’ll give you something to ponder this weekend.
Credence: This scenario could definitely take place. It might even be the most likely depending on how you view Scenario 1.
For now there’s no job opening and it isn’t truly guaranteed it will open. But, if Del Conte doesn’t make a move, all those cardboard cutouts you currently see in stadiums nationwide will come in handy as the school opens its newly expanded stadium next fall. Now that sounds costly.

October 19th Scoop:

 

 

The current climate has made it much harder to raise money, so even if it’s not his fault, Del Conte is failing to do the #1 thing he was hired to do. Fundraising hitting the wall is a fait accompli for Herman, unless he pulls off a miraculous run of winning. And even then, his job is still in danger. Del Conte won’t be taking the blame for his inability to raise money.
Donors who don’t wield heavy influence, but who cut large checks, all ask the same question: What about Urban Meyer? In the past, Meyer's history would preclude being hired at Texas. We’ve probably never reversed course more quickly on something we were so adamant on. That’s because the donors’ appetite changed almost overnight. At the same time, Texas has a new school president in Jay Hartzell who is a friend to athletics in general and football in particular. While it wouldn’t be accurate to say he’s beating the drum for Meyer, we’ve heard he’s open to it.
We know Del Conte’s open to it because a hire like that fulfills both of his main obligations: raising money and making excellent coaching hires.
SCENARIOS
While you play A Tribe Called Quest in your head, we’ll update the current scenarios we outlined in the recent Humidor.
Here we go, yo.
1. Option #1: Not to confuse Meyer being likely, but we were early to say the hire is at least possible. Because of that, the early signals were coming through loud and clear. We were able to corroborate some key bits of news. As more catch on behind the scenes, the noise is starting to drown out the signal. Rumor SZN is upon us. Everybody has heard something it seems, but unfortunately the info doesn’t always align. Our best sources on the matter, however, are in a holding pattern. That is to say, the hire is still doable.
If top brass deems it’s time to move on from Herman, buyout money won’t be an issue for a quality hire. Funding a hire as ambitious as Meyer could be a bit more difficult. There are a lot of ways to make the numbers work, however, and if a realistic number is negotiated, the school will find a way to ante up. If this were to come to fruition, the politics wouldn’t look great for the school. A lot of people don’t understand ROI, sadly.
Aside the financial considerations, another question is if he would really take the job? That’s impossible to know, but we know he wants to coach again. He’s hyper-competitive and wants to win a fourth National Championship at a third school. Could he find a situation better than UT? With a talented roster, new facilities, a defensive coordinator he’s won a trophy with, as well as an accomplished running backs coach he’s familiar with, Texas sets up quite well. If he doesn’t want the job, we’ll have to question whether he truly wants to work again, and that’s not Texas arrogance talking. UT really does have a solid foundation in place.
We know he wanted the Dallas Cowboys job even though his heart belongs to college football. He wants to coach again.
Some have speculated Oklahoma could come open. That would be a great situation for him but it’s unlikely there will be a vacancy in Norman. We heard last year Lincoln Riley turned down the Cowboys. We never corroborated it but we find it plausible. There’s also some fear OU would be more proactive than Texas. We don’t know why there’s an assumption now that Del Conte isn’t already being proactive.
In short, Meyer likely won’t have a better option than Texas. This will likely come down to money, and, well, there being a job opening.
2. Herman saves his job: At this time it’s hard to fathom this scenario. To his credit, his players still believe in him, but try as we might, we haven’t found much support for him otherwise.
Some of the most instrumental people in bringing him to Texas are out on him for much the same reasons the fans are. It’s hard to overstate the level of frustration with Herman from people who have influence over his immediate future.
It’s morbid to talk about, and for all his faults we hate writing it. But we can’t discuss the future of Texas football without this being in the record.
We don’t know the likelihood that Herman could be removed in-season, but we have heard it’s not off the table. Typically that’s a no-go but recruiting and roster considerations aren’t what they once were. A protracted search must begin much earlier in the calendar otherwise the carcass will be picked of what quality meat remains.
3. Comprehensive process: If Meyer isn’t the guy, and if Herman doesn’t save his job, Del Conte and Hartzell will have a difficult decision on their hands. There is no clear alternative to Meyer but there are numerous potential candidates. Just whittling that group down to a manageable number will be difficult.

From my vantage, what we’ve written has aged well.

Coaching Compendium Part 2

Spoiler

Let’s pick up where we left off yesterday.

October 23rd Humidor Q&A:
 

1. There’s no job opening at this point in time. Which means the subject is kind of touchy. If/when the job comes open, I’ll feel better about sharing more details.
2. I’ve said things remaining quiet is a good sign. Things are still quiet, but they weren’t all that quiet on my end. Steps have been taken that tell me Scenario #1 is a distinct possibility. That isn‘t to say it‘s a foregone conclusion or anything, but if back-channeling is footsie, there might be a hand on a thigh now.

October 26th Scoop:

 

 

Then and Now - 2013 and 2020
When the Aggies hired Jimbo Fisher, my initial reaction was to be impressed by their ability to pull it off. Hiring a national championship winning coach, to College Station no less, was to be commended. It took everyone, school administration, athletic department, and boosters sharing the same commitment to doing whatever it took to make the hire. It also took some good fortune, which Texas has right now. Jimbo Fisher was ready for a change of scenery.
Texas fans were in a good position to appreciate the move having witnessed the slow moving train wreck of Texas turning down the greatest college football coach of all time. On the heels of the Saban debacle, and ensuing hirings, Texas fans are justifiably jaded about the ability of Texas brass to make a major hire.
But that was then, this is now. Key Texas figures are in much better position to follow the template set forth by — gulp — the Aggies, than their own from 2013.
President then: Bill Powers - Depending on who you talk to, Powers was understandably upset by the boosters’ unsanctioned pursuit of Saban, or a downright idiot for not being grateful and converting the layup. In any event, he was the key decision maker in the whole deal and he had little appetite for Saban. He and DeLoss Dodds didn’t even have much of an appetite for asking Mack Brown to step down.
President now: Jay Hartzell - It’s Hartzell’s job now, but even his predecessor was done with Herman last December. It was Chris Del Conte who persuaded Greg Fenves to give Herman one more year. Hartzell has always been seen as sympathetic to the athletic and donor side, though I believe he‘d prefer to not be pigeonholed as such. That’s likely why he assigned Richard Reddick to run the historical review of The Eyes of Texas. If we learned anything from the Saban Saga it’s to get a good understanding of the president’s office when significant changes need to be made. Simply put, Hartzell is open to hiring Urban Meyer.
Athletic Director then: DeLoss Dodds - Texas athletics were awash in cash in 2013. That’s not the greatest motivator to make a big change. Dodds and Mack Brown were quite close and as long as checks were cashing, Dodds seemed to have little interest in making a head coaching change. He certainly didn’t want his hand to be forced to make that change. This period is the epitome of Texas stagnation: ”We’re not winning but we’re earning like we are!”
Athletic Director now: Chris Del Conte - Del Conte has a great working relationship with Hartzell, as well as an okay but recently strained relationship with boosters. There’s one way to repair that relationship and restore the donations rolling in. This is the key difference in the two scenarios, well that and not having Powers involved: Given the financial impact of Covid-19 in conjunction with numerous capital projects, furloughs, and layoffs, the donors are needed much more than in 2013. They have the leverage to get things done, though I don’t get the sense Del Conte needs his arm twisted on this one. In less than a year, Herman has lost a lot of the support from the person who just helped oversee an expensive staff overhaul.
Head coach then: Mack Brown - It had long been Mack Brown Texas Football by 2013 and he had no plans to abdicate. This period spawned one of the greatest phrases ever uttered on IT:
”He’s leaving, but it’s his choice if it’s in a parade or pine box.” - @W.W. McClyde
Of course he chose pine box, but only after he petulantly and selfishly scuttled the Nick Saban deal once and for all.
Head coach now: Tom Herman - Herman has none of the leverage or support from the administration Brown had in 2013. Try as I might, I can’t find any pockets of support for the embattled coach. He never cared much for politicking (hard to blame him) but it’s shortsighted to not create allies in a position such as his. I had two people this weekend speculate that even if he won out, he’d be on the hot seat. That’s hard to fathom, but given the situation, not all that hard to believe.
BOR then - My recollection is it was split between the administrative side and the athletic booster side. The unsanctioned overtures were known to some on the BOR, but others sided with Powers. Clearly Powers had more stroke.
BOR now - From my vantage, the BOR appears to be in lockstep with Del Conte, Hartzell, and the most influential boosters. I can’t speak knowledgeably on all of them. Typically some care about sports, and some don’t. The ones who care about football are like Hartzell and are open to the idea of Urban Meyer. This is a key point: the president, AD, and BOR are on the same exact page.
Boosters then - There was a clear divide between the old guard Jamails of the world who threatened to withhold countless millions from the school if Brown was fired, and those who wanted a return to the heights Mack previously took the program. The BBs were not in box and there seemed to be a clear split between the Houston and Dallas factions. The Dallas boosters were at least able to force Brown’s resignation.
Boosters now - There is no such divide. The lines we have into both cities all favor hiring the strong, centralizing figure. You can add Austin to that group too.
Result then - With the petulance of Mack Brown and the enabling of DeLoss Dodds, Bill Powers scuttled what would have been the biggest football hire of your lifetime. This led to a shoddy search resulting in the hiring of Charlie Strong. Powers won, the school lost.
Result now - It’s impossible to know what will happen, and there isn’t yet a job opening, but if UT doesn’t land its top target it won’t be for lack of effort and pulling out all the stops. It won’t be self-inflicted.
The context between 2013 and 2020 couldn’t be more different.

October 30th Humidor:

 

 

Turtle Soup

 

Tom Herman has a big, winnable game ahead of him this week in Stillwater. If you’ve been paying attention, we don’t think the remaining season matters all that much for his future at Texas. That has nothing to do with preference or opinion, it’s simply based on what we are hearing; it’s based on what we have been hearing.
In the coming weeks/month, Johnny Come Lately will report revelations of “they have buyout money“ and some such, but that’s not groundbreaking, and it’s clearly implied in what we’ve been reporting. How the buyout actually occurs might become news unto its own, but we don’t yet know how that will play out. In the end it will just be a minor footnote.
You may remember such classics as “Hark the Harrell Angel” and “Coord Cutting” but we aren’t to the frenzied point where news is daily or calling for the alcohol inducing Moderator Only thread. We’re not fans of busy work, and think re-packaging non-update updates is lazy. Shuttlesworth and I used to call it making stone soup. We’ll at least add some carrots this week but Fridays come fast and new info doesn’t always adhere to deadlines.
So what do we have that’s new? Not a lot, but not nothing either. After bulleits last night I’m going to bullet to make it easier.
- The search is on....for a search firm. Search firms have a bad reputation on the Texas internets. That will happen when you spend $267,000 for CYA to hire Charlie Strong. But firms serve a real purpose if used correctly. It’s how I found Justin. Firms are becoming adept at misdirection so it will make our job more challenging and more fun. Del Conte used a search firm to hire the women’s basketball coach. Vin Scully I think his name is. Of course it’s easy to overspend for a coach in a non-revenue sport. If he overspends on this next coach it’ll probably be a good thing, however. Don’t read too much into retaining a search firm. That could be part and parcel with both Scenario 1 and Scenario 3.
- Calm in the donor ranks is eerie. There’s plenty of **** talking over the current conflagration, and these dudes even have group messages like @Toadvine and @malaise apparently have with half the IT readership, but they’re no longer mad, up in arms, or threatening to withhold funds. From my vantage, the donors who matter are all in line and willing to do what it takes to put out the fire.
- I previously heard if the job should open, Jay Hartzell was open to hiring Urban Meyer. Now I hear that Hartzell wants him if there’s a vacancy. That’s probably related to my previous point.
- I think an in-season firing is possible, but I don’t think it’s likely. This is based on info before Quinn Ewers and DeAndre McNeal de-committed, but I think it’s still accurate. I don’t know what to make of it, but I’m smart enough to give slack for things I don’t know. I’ve heard there is a lot to navigate but try as I might I can’t get color on what that exactly entails. It takes no imagination to believe there is an excess of red tape and bureaucratic friction to navigate at Texas. I do believe the school can’t reach out to potential candidates while Tom Herman is employed. They’ll honor that of course.
Like I said, search firms come in handy.
Personally, I understand fans wanting Tom to be fired in-season if results on the field warrant, but I know there’s a plan in place that might not call for it. Without knowing the details of the plan it’s hard to have confidence in it, but these people are operating with much more info than we are.
- This is independent of UT sourced info, but I asked a trusted confidante in the sports world who he thought were the best, realistic candidates. He listed: Penn State's James Franklin, Iowa State's Matt Campbell, Cincinnati's Luke Fickell, Minnesota's PJ Fleck, and Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott.
Funny enough, a week ago he didn’t think Tom was on the way out. This week he came back with his mind changed. This week he also said he didn’t think Texas was coordinated enough to pull of the Urban Meyer hire. I’m going to give him a week on that and see what he says image.gif.e809f9b209fb5de981c269da7ed387df.gif
Upon a re-read and edit, there’s plenty of meat in there. Be careful not to add too much salt.

It should be noted, the ‘independent of UT sourced info’ is just that, independent of UT. Some readers missed that the first go-round. I’ve never been big on Franklin or Fleck. I’m glad they’ve removed themselves from consideration. I do like Campbell and Fickell, and feel like if South Carolina doesn’t sell out entirely to get Tom Herman, it should go after Tony Elliott.

November 2nd Scoop:

 

 

Then and Now - 2016 and 2020 [new thoughts/info as of November 2nd are in brackets]
The more things change, the more they stay the same. If you saw Tom Herman crowd surfing on a swell of players after Saturday‘s victory, I’m sure you were reminded of Charlie Strong doing the same.
Funny thing about the Strong crowd surfing — it wasn’t organic. The players were put up to it to show support for their embattled coach.
Some other things weren’t real from that era, either. Most notably: The players who threatened to protest in support of Strong if he was fired were put up to it by one of Strong’s friends in my line of work. These were younger, more impressionable players. The older players on the team caught wind of that and squashed it. While Strong was well-liked, most key players were done with him after year two and certainly after year three.
For all intents and purposes, Strong lost his job after the Oklahoma State game where the 'Pokes blocked three extra points and carved up the Horns secondary. That’s at least when the groundswell initially started and we spent as much time writing about Tom Herman as anything else. That was early October.
If the same fate befalls Tom Herman, his all intents and purposes game was TCU. Yes, not even OU. Given factors we’ve documented beyond wins and losses Herman had already lost most of his support.
The ‘now’ hasn’t changed much since I wrote about the situation last week, but I’ll use brackets to make amendments to the original now to offer my most recent info after the improbable Saturday victory.
The ‘then‘ will change from the end of the Mack Brown era to the end of the Strong era.
President then: Greg Fenves - Fenves knew what had needed to be done early in 2016 but there was a lot of concern over whether or not he’d make the call. I wasn’t as concerned — Texas had actually explored removing Strong after his second year. While some mention the Kansas loss as the deal breaker, at a minimum he was done after the West Virginia loss the week before. Along with an academic needing to make a major decision regarding the state’s highest paid employee, Fenves had another problem: a placeholder athletic director in Mike Perrin. Perrin, along with Strong, had previously required Fenves to jump on a private plane to help land an offensive coordinator from Tulsa. This brought great shame on the university; people in Japan have committed seppuku for less. From an administration standpoint, Texas was not in a good place to have a robust search.
While it was very likely Tom Herman would be the next head coach in October of 2016, Texas did reach out to Chris Petersen. Fenves must have stumbled onto one of DeLoss Dodds’ dossiers from 2010. Texas also reached out to David Shaw.
Herman was the consensus pick, and Fenves didn’t mess around when the time came. When LSU started to push heavily for Herman, Fenves did the same and made the hire. The school was not set up for a quality search. The chances were too great it would be another Korn Ferry debacle.
President now: Jay Hartzell - It’s Hartzell’s job now, but even his predecessor was done with Herman last December. It was Chris Del Conte who persuaded Greg Fenves to give Herman one more year. Hartzell has always been seen as sympathetic to the athletic and donor side, though I believe he‘d prefer to not be pigeonholed as such. That’s likely why he assigned Richard Reddick to run the historical review of The Eyes of Texas. If we learned anything from the Saban Saga, it’s to get a good understanding of the president’s office when significant changes need to be made. Simply put, Hartzell is open to hiring Urban Meyer.
[Even more simply put, Hartzell wants Meyer if a transition needs to be made]
Athletic Director then: Mike Perrin - Two key factors led to the Herman hire; one was the poor process that led to Charlie Strong, and the other was the poor process that led to Steve Patterson over Oliver Luck as athletic director. Luck was a popular figure with key donor support, but at the last minute a push was made for the prickly Patterson. This may still be a source of derision among donors, and it certainly was in real time. Said one donor to me at the time, “those guys should be black-balled from having influence.” Patterson was terrible and didn’t last long. Mike Perrin was a quick and easy fix and he took the assignment out of duty to the school he loves. After the handling of the OC hire less than a year earlier, he had little input in singing the next head coach.
Athletic Director now: Chris Del Conte - Del Conte has a great working relationship with Hartzell, as well as an okay but recently strained relationship with boosters. There’s one way to repair that relationship and restore the donations rolling in. This is the key difference in the two scenarios, well that and not having Powers involved: Given the financial impact of Covid-19 in conjunction with numerous capital projects, furloughs, and layoffs, the donors are needed much more than in 2013. They have the leverage to get things done, though I don’t get the sense Del Conte needs his arm twisted on this one. In less than a year, Herman has lost a lot of the support from the person who just helped oversee an expensive staff overhaul.
[Del Conte is the duck, calm above water but paddling like hell beneath the water line. He’s fielding calls and emails left and right. These calls don’t necessarily need to be made because he has a handle on the situation. The win in Stillwater was good for the program but it didn’t change anything]
Head coach then: Charlie Strong - There isn’t much to say here that hasn’t been written. He never should have been the head coach at Texas and I use the data of him at USF to make that assertion as anything else.
Head coach now: Tom Herman - Herman has none of the leverage or support from the administration Brown had in 2013. Try as I might, I can’t find any pockets of support for the embattled coach. He never cared much for politicking (hard to blame him) but it’s shortsighted to not create allies in a position such as his. I had two people this weekend speculate that even if he won out, he’d be on the hot seat. That’s hard to fathom, but given the situation, not all that hard to believe.
[The previous two sentences are still the case, but also heard, “he’ll trip up” and “he can’t handle success.” There’s a reason his teams are better as an underdog. Another negative for him is, everyone knows the conference is way down this year.]
BOR then - The BOR was resolute to sign off on whoever Fenves came up with as head coach.
BOR now - From my vantage, the BOR appears to be in lockstep with Del Conte, Hartzell, and the most influential boosters. I can’t speak knowledgeably on all of them. Typically some care about sports, and some don’t. The ones who care about football are like Hartzell and are open to the idea of Urban Meyer. This is a key point: the president, AD, and BOR are on the same exact page.
[Still the case. “There have been leadership voids in the past, but they’re in a good place with this president, athletic director, and BOR.”]
Boosters then - After the Saban fiasco, the Strong hire and tenure, and the Patterson hiring/firing, the boosters were quite jaded with Texas. I can’t tell you how frequently I’d receive some variation of “I don’t care.” Now, that’s not to say some key boosters didn’t help the Herman hire along the path, but booster interest was much lower than normal.
Boosters now - There is no such divide. The lines we have into both cities all favor hiring the strong, centralizing figure. You can add Austin to that group too.
[Del Conte has done a great job of re-engaging donor interest and they’re extremely engaged right now. This group has an Urban or bust mentality]
Result then - Knowing what we knew then, Fenves made the best hire he could have. The best indicator of the market is, LSU wanted Herman but when they couldn’t sign him they stuck with Ed Orgeron. Matt Rhule was hired in that same class, but nobody was calling for that and he probably would have split for the NFL even sooner.
Result now - It’s impossible to know what will happen, and there isn’t yet a job opening, but if UT doesn’t land its top target it won’t be for lack of effort and pulling out all the stops. It won’t be self-inflicted.
[Herman earned a big win on Saturday, and will be favored versus West Virginia, and maybe every game the rest of the way. If he wants to keep his job, he’s going to have to create success, then learn to handle it. He has not been consistently good at either. From the people I talk to, not much changed on Saturday. They don’t think the team is playing well (yard discrepancy was mentioned to me, as well as turnover battle) in general, plus the down conference is being accounted for. It’ll be tough for Herman to keep his job while being the tallest midget.]


I think that’s a good place to break for today. I’ll just reiterate the Cigars are as committed as they were to landing Saban, this time they have the administrative support they lacked then.

 

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12 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Bobby Burton has this

 

Sounds like a whole lot of last ditch effort at trying to gain at least some type of leverage in negotiations with Urban Meyer before just letting him have his way with every orifice of your financial body.... at least that's what I'd like to believe.

But honestly, I've always suspected it'd be harder to fire him if you let him hang on long enough to win the conference. So no surprise whatsoever that it was said. But IT (not sure if it was Burton when he first suited up) has said the opposite when it comes to at least some BMDs. Wonder how much they beat on the table in defiance, and how much it'd matter. 

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3 minutes ago, RGBIII said:

Important fact about burtons note..he may not be fired if he wins out...doesnt mean he wont take another job

It's interesting how much we've seen this mentioned the past week or two. On the surface it seems like the last basket to put your eggs in if Tom wins out, without much substance. But I dunno, wonder if people are actually really hearing anything substantial on it. 

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17 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

It's also really stupid.  You don't make coaching decisions based on a sample size of 3 or 4 games.  You make them based on 3 or 4 years.  There is enough data to make a move regardless what happens the rest of the season.

Yeah, this. Texas has been one of the most penalized teams in the country during his tenure. 1-4 against OU. Zero conference championships. GTFO.

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IT Scoop

Spoiler

What we know:
- Ugly wins don’t help Tom Herman unless he somehow wins out that way. He can win out in the regular season that way but a Big 12 CCG victory would have to be earned if it’s versus OU.

- Wins and losses are only half of the equation. Herman set fire to his bridges, making wins and losses the only thing that could save his neck.

- BMDs are going all out in pursuit of Scenario #1. You think you have little appetite for @Toadvine threads, these guys have even less and don’t want to hear about any other potential candidates.

- As we’ve been reporting for well over a month, the trilateral commission is on the same page. As we learned with the Saban fiasco, whoever has veto power holds the keys. That won’t be an issue assuming Herman drops a game and UM wants the gig.

- Urban Meyer does want to coach again. We’ve heard it, but it’s also obvious watching him on television.

- Some informal steps have taken place that are consistent with the hiring process, but they’re certainly not binding in any way whatsoever.

- UM does have interest in the Texas job. He would have shot it down a month ago if he didn‘t have interest. But he also doesn’t want the appearance of gunning for a job that isn’t open. That, along with UT’s win streak, have kept things mostly quiet. That’s a good thing.

- His family would prefer he stay retired.

- If the decision makers miss, it won’t be for lack of effort.

What we think we know:

- If UT misses, we don’t think it will be because of money, but we don’t know exactly what the price tag will be. We’ve heard some rumors that place it at being very steep, but the money guys seem pot committed at this point.

- We think there’s a growing confidence regarding UM’s level of interest. We have to read between the lines, but that’s my intuition. Reminder that intuition is not information, however, there are enough bread crumbs to lead me to thinking this is on a slightly upward trajectory, rather than flat or degrading.

[There’s a lot more to this section — basically half of the Google Doc — but we’ll have to save it for when things either heat up significantly or for a retrospective]

What we’re unsure of:

- What happens if Herman wins out? @Bobby Burton is reporting in that event Herman will be back. That logically follows, but if they’ve reached an informal agreement with Meyer by mid-December, right before the Big 12 CCG, I wonder about that. One of the school’s biggest issues is fundraising. What will happen if the efforts of some of the biggest donors to land the unquestioned second best coach of the generation are rebuffed? That certainly won’t help the school’s efforts to raise money at a time it’s greatly needed.

- How much does the family’s opinion matter? We know Meyer’s family would love for him to stay on the sidelines by staying off the sidelines. They don’t want him coaching again. How much their opinion matters is an unknown and we’ve reported in the past some on the Texas side are concerned by it.

- What happens if Herman makes it to the Big 12 CCG but does what he does 80% of the time and loses a close one to OU? This could turn into a mess because many people are done with Herman no matter what but there aren’t many obviously qualified candidates aside Meyer. The BBs could spill here if CDC elects to do nothing. Again, that will hurt fundraising.

#####

The flip of 2021 DeSoto DL Byron Murphy from Baylor to Texas helps the Longhorns' cause with Murphy's good friend and the top prospect remaining on the Texas board, Shemar Turner. As IT has talked about for weeks, Texas had moved from outside the top to the top with Texas A&M prior to the season, but the Longhorns have lost momentum and trailed Texas A&M by quite a bit prior to Murphy’s pledge. Word around the DeSoto program is Texas A&M still leads, but the people IT spoke with acknowledge there is still some Texas push within Turner’s family. With that being said, the family is happy if Turner stays close to home. The lone out of state threat appears to be Alabama right now. Texas and Turner continue to communicate regularly. Turner’s recruitment has featured Tom Herman, Oscar Giles, Chris Ash, Mark Hagen and Bryan Carrington at various points with Herman having a long-standing relationship with a member of Turner’s circle dating back to the Dontre Wilson recruitment.

The Longhorns offer to Bridgeland 2022 QB Conner Weigman was one of those childhood dream offers. With that said, Weigman told IT Friday before Bridgeland’s game against Cy-Falls his current decision timeline is early summer. He said he really wants to make some visits and sit down with head coaches, offensive coordinators and position coaches. In speaking with someone dialed into Weigman’s recruitment, the offers from Texas, Oklahoma and Florida have moved the needle. An offer from Texas A&M would do the same. The consensus has been close to home at the end of the day providing Texas and Oklahoma a considerable advantage, as well as the Aggies should they offer. The questions surrounding the future of the staff in Austin is known by Weigman and the Bridgeland staff, and that slowed the chances of a quick verbal — at this point. Weigman plans to play both football and baseball at the next level, so that also factors into his equation.

#####

BYRON MURPHY

The newest addition to UT’s Class of 2021 had himself a night on Friday, dominating Mansfield. With teammate and fellow prospect, Shemar Turner, Desoto‘s front four is immovable.

At 6-foot-1and 290 pounds, the four-star with 20 offers including Georgia, Mississippi State, Minnesota, and TCU enjoyed himself only days after flipping to the Longhorns. But he still misses taking the trips.

“If we would have had an opportunity to play spring ball, I feel my recruitment would have really skyrocketed,” Murphy said. “The pandemic also affected my chances to take official visits, which would have also been helpful in determining my commitment.”

With Mark Hagen pressing the right buttons, Texas was able to persuade Murphy to de-commit from Baylor.

“I am looking for a program that is going to challenge me to a better player on and off the field,” said Murphy. “A place to develop me as a young man and allow me to have an immediate impact on the field.”

He knows who he is and what he’s bringing to Austin. He feels like he can achieve his goals at UT.

“I am bringing a winning pedigree, tenacity, heart and love for the game to UT,” Murphy explained.

Before he can help the Horns, he still has one mission remaining.

“My expectations for DeSoto this year is to make a deep run in the playoffs and hopefully bring home a state championship trophy,” Murphy said.

Bringing Turner with him to Austin might be another goal as well. Stay tuned.

JJ HENRY

At 5-foot-10 and 165 pounds, the lightning-quick slot receiver from McKinney North dropped his Top 8 on Sunday, and Texas was included, to no surprise.

They joined TCU, Baylor, Texas A&M, Florida State, Arkansas, SMU, Ole Miss, and Louisville. They all have one thing in common for Henry.

“Family,” said Henry. “Each program has treated me like their own.”

What is one thing he really likes about the Longhorns?

“The culture,” said Henry. “Nothing like some Texas Football. I like how the program is run and the staff.”

The COVID pandemic has ruined recruiting for a lot of prospects, and Henry mentioned how much he’d like to take visits and get a feel for the programs. But he’ll have to decide sight unseen, like many other targets.

His decision timeline is TBD, but I get the sense he’s close to narrowing down his list even more. I believe UT will be in this pursuit as long as they want.

I’m watching TCU and A&M here, too. Both have recruited the position at a high level over the last few years and both like the Under Armour all star.

COLE HUTSON

The 2022 Frisco offensive tackle has been enjoying a solid junior year, with offers adding up.

Alabama jumped into the mix for the 6-foot-4, 290-pound three-sport athlete.

Just like others, the inability to take visits seems to be taking its toll on prospects. But Hutson doesn’t complain.

“It’s been a big impact with from extending the dead period to teams not being able to play, but I still try my hardest to be in contact with coaches but also focus on my season, virtual tours are great,” Hutson said. “The staffs really try to make it like a normal visit.”

Texas keeps close tabs on him and continues to push for his services.

“(Texas and I) talk about my season and theirs, they care about me and my family,” said Hutson. “I talk to Coach Hand and Coach Herman regularly. They always wish the best for me at my games and I do the same.”

His father, Scott, played pro baseball after a career at Arizona State, so the DNA checks out.

With 23 offers, including OU, Texas A&M, and Arizona State, his options are solid.

Hutson remains open throughout the process and Texas has done a great job building the relationship here.

SEBASTIAN CHEEKS

The 2022 Evanston Township (Evanston, IL) product is highly decorated for a reason; he’s a ball player.

The 6-foot-2, 200-pound four-star linebacker holds 16 offers, with Notre Dame, Stanford, Arizona State, and Cincinnati among the programs.

Unfortunately, his junior year was moved from fall to the spring, but he’s taking it all in stride.

“Honestly, (COVID) did impact my recruiting in terms of building personal interactions with coaches since visits have been shut down,” said Cheeks. “I believe it’s been hard also for me especially because I feel like coming off last year I need more film. I was injured and have improved my game substantially and want to demonstrate that.”

Texas extended an offer in early September and continues to recruit the outside linebacker.

“I still hear from a multiple of schools that include Notre Dame, Texas, Ohio State, Oregon, and Stanford,” said Cheeks.

UT has made an impression on the Midwest tacking machine.

“(Texas) has a coaching staff that is down to earth and always keeps it a buck,” said Cheeks. “I have a great relationship with Coach Hutzler. I feel like I can call him anytime even when it may not be about football. He is a great role model and a family man and is someone I would love to be coached by because I know he could take me to the next level.“

The Fighting Irish lead this recruitment right now, but UT continues to push.

MICHAEL MYSLINSKI

We checked in on 2021Jacksonville (FL) Bishop Kenney O-lineman and Texas commit Michael Myslinski, whose season is already over.

“We didn’t have a very good season this year, we went 1-7,” said Myslinski. “We were in every game but couldn’t come out on top. Next year they will do a great job and really turn the corner I think. We have a sophomore QB who will be a stud! He started in our last game which was playoffs and balled out.”

At 6-foot-2 and 265 pounds, Myslinski can’t enroll early because his high school doesn’t allow it. So he’ll wait seven months until arriving in Austin.

“I was hoping to take official visits to schools but now that won’t be available which really stinks,” said Myslinski. “I wanted to meet the coaches in person.”

Even though he’s a UT pledge, other schools are still pushing.

“The colleges I still hear from the most are Iowa, Michigan State, and Maryland,” said Myslinski.

No matter how much they call, it appears Myslinski is happy where’s he’s at, and makes a point to mention how important Herb Hand is for his recruitment.

“The coach player relationship is very important to me,” Myslinski said. “Coach Hand does a great job and he was a big reason for my commitment. He’s a great guy.”

 

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8 minutes ago, RGBIII said:

- Wins and losses are only half of the equation. Herman set fire to his bridges, making wins and losses the only thing that could save his neck.

This is what bugs me. Winning out is great. I'll take a win over OU in the CCG or behind a Pizza Hut dumpster playing marbles any day, but the winning out and winning the CCG fixes nothing. It's still a shitty situation with the wrong guy in charge. 

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13 minutes ago, TexasEx said:

Really not a fan of having Therm’s future decided on a game-by-game basis if that’s really what’s happening. 

Don’t worry about him. He’ll get paid no matter what. Millions, many.

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46 minutes ago, satyanash said:

There was a lot of chatter over the weekend, really starting Friday, about some possible moves behind the scenes on the coaching front. I reached out to a person of authority at UT for clarification. Here is his response: “I am 100 percent sure that Herman will not be fired if he doesn’t lose at least one more game.” Now, Herman could easily seek a job elsewhere if he wins out, and winning out would obviously also include a Big 12 Championship.

For those believing Herman is gone no matter what, it’s just not what I’m hearing from people with input on that decision process. Yet the marching orders for Herman are abundantly clear. Win or we will find someone who will.

1.) Is there any event last week that would all of a sudden spark weekend behind-the-scenes coaching moves? Only notable developments I can think of are Boom being fired (Sunday), Kansas game being postponed (Wednesday) and Ewers committing to tOSU (Thursday). I'm guessing Ewers would be the most logical, but then again that was largely expected. Perhaps Herman had projected confidence in getting Ewers back on the boat or Ewers was in fact waiting to see what coaching change UT made (if any) and the commitment was a clear signal he was tired of waiting and the window for us taking action with his attention was quickly closing (or already has).

 

2.) In my totally uninformed opinion, not buying the Herman to SCAR or some middling P5 or G5. I know there has been some limited speculation that Herman is discontent, and obviously his relationship with CDC and others that matter is strained at best, but feels the 9.95'ers would have more specifics and report it with more spotlight if there was truly smoke.

Not to mention it seems like a very rare event for a coach to voluntarily jump down (let's consider the "hot seat" situation voluntary) a couple significant rungs in the CFB hierarchy - ones that come to mind are Holgo to UH, Jimbo to A&M (though they'd argue otherwise) and Franchione to A&M (though Bama of that era was not the Bama of today). I can think of significant distinctions between those three situations and Herman's. I know there are other examples, just wondering whether my gut feeling is correct that Herman jumping down could be unprecedented in some respects. 

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1 hour ago, RGBIII said:

What will happen if the efforts of some of the biggest donors to land the unquestioned second best coach of the generation are rebuffed?

Splitting hairs but I'm not sure he's "unquestioned" second best. Pete and Dabo both have a horse in that race.

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49 minutes ago, TexasEx said:

Nothing really new other than the ongoing confidence of an anonymous tweeter. 

larry is a troll, probably and ohio state guy, and he’s laughing at the entire texas fan base.  anyone who believes him is a desperate fool.  get a hold of yourselves, people.  urban meyer will be in the booth next season whether or not herman is our coach. 

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  • immamac changed the title to Urban Meyer or bust
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