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Aggy 2024: Still waiting on the Looch 44


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21 minutes ago, Yesh said:

What kind of locker room would Traylor have?  Didn't Jimbo allow the inmates to run the asylum?  No matter who they hire, it will be better for us if they don't overachieve in the first year, and the best way for that to happen would be for a bunch of guys to portal out because the new coach is a disciplinarian.

I would be better for that program in the long term to have a bunch of those high ranked guys portal out. Jimbo obviously gave no shits about culture or character on his teams, and then wondered why they "couldn't find the inches".

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1 hour ago, Yesh said:

What kind of locker room would Traylor have?  Didn't Jimbo allow the inmates to run the asylum?  No matter who they hire, it will be better for us if they don't overachieve in the first year, and the best way for that to happen would be for a bunch of guys to portal out because the new coach is a disciplinarian.

Very disciplined

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I would not be surprised to see a Sark type hire - either an OC/DC who has previous HC experience who is available for 5-6 million per, or a younger G5 coach who would be looking for that P5 promotion. 

I think you can basically eliminate almost all of the current P5 coaches as candidates (other than maybe Elko).

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14 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Regarding DeBoer - saw someone on twitter pointing out what a shitty recruiter he is even within the state of Washington.  The Huskies don't have any commits from the top 25 in the state of Washington.

i am NOT defending his recruiting, but its not like they have some super strong state recruiting wise though:

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#5 in the state in the composite is a .9062. this would put Fox Crader at #48 in the state of Texas just behind Coen Echols. would be like #27 in California.

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Washington's recruiting high in the composite going back to 2018 was #15 in 2019 and their top ranked player from WA was #11 in their class. they generally have landed in the #18-30 range overall.

they ended up really low last year (#95 in the composite) but that's because they had 10 total recruits + 9 transfers.

in 23 they had 2 of the top 5 players from Oregon. 22 got 1 of top 5. 2 of top 5in 2021. 2 in 2020. 1 in 2019.

the state of Washington gets poached a ton. guessing it's like Tennessee in that regard where if you have a top guy everyone is in on him and they don't really have a ton of faith in him. plus Oregon is super strong in state from flipping through those years

 

not that any of it matters, he will recruit well at A&M and your play with him is the offensive scheme - not that he's some kind of recruiting rainmaker. he brought 2 dudes with him on the offensive side from Fresno St (Grubbs OC and Marks RB coach + had worked with the TE coach at Indiana previously) - surround him with some offensive rainmakers at RB or WR or TE and you are probably good to go.

also not that any of this matters but he isn't leaving Washington for Texas A&M

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11 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Regarding DeBoer - saw someone on twitter pointing out what a shitty recruiter he is even within the state of Washington.  The Huskies don't have any commits from the top 25 in the state of Washington.

I don’t think DeBoer is a great recruiter either, but saying top 25 is a bit of a rhetorical trick. There’s only like 10 or 11 guys in the state that UW would even want.

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1 hour ago, NoName said:

they really are the thinnest skinned fucks in the universe

"yeah here is a guy who is exactly what we would want on paper - battle tested, runs an exciting offense, recruits, brash, outspoken and gettable - but he shit on A&M so he's off the list"

Could you ever see Bob Stoops coaching at Texas?

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If A&M finds a coach who is successful, it will be amusing should we decide to hire whoever it is away from them. If not us, somebody will do it.

Does a top coach really want to be the guy at A&M? They're either a retirement destination or stepping stone for the forseeable future.

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1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

I would not be surprised to see a Sark type hire - either an OC/DC who has previous HC experience who is available for 5-6 million per, or a younger G5 coach who would be looking for that P5 promotion. 

I think you can basically eliminate almost all of the current P5 coaches as candidates (other than maybe Elko).

While I don't think the next hire is going to be able to demand the same stupid contract they gave Jimbo, I don't see any scenario where someone takes the job for less than what they're paying their former coach annually. The floor is the $7+ million they're paying Jimbo to fuck off. You can't still be paying the old guy you fired more than you're paying the new guy. 

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3 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

While I don't think the next hire is going to be able to demand the same stupid contract they gave Jimbo, I don't see any scenario where someone takes the job for less than what they're paying their former coach annually. The floor is the $7+ million they're paying Jimbo to fuck off. You can't still be paying the old guy you fired more than you're paying the new guy. 

What was Sark's starting salary vs Herman's final year? 

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I'm going to be pretty shocked if it's not Elko.  Just too obvious given he was just there a few years ago.   It's a hire Billy and the rest of the Ag media can sell (much moreso than Traylor).  He would likely be able to keep most of the defensive talent/recruits.  The question would obviously be offense.  I don't know much about the current Duke OC (Kevin Johns) but he doesn't have a resume that jumps off the page.  Getting a home run OC hire is what would be tough as not many names that really jump out at you (that likely aren't in the market for one of the smaller jobs that opens up).

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2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I'm going to be pretty shocked if it's not Elko.  Just too obvious given he was just there a few years ago.   It's a hire Billy and the rest of the Ag media can sell (much moreso than Traylor).  He would likely be able to keep most of the defensive talent/recruits.  The question would obviously be offense.  I don't know much about the current Duke OC (Kevin Johns) but he doesn't have a resume that jumps off the page.  Getting a home run OC hire is what would be tough as not many names that really jump out at you (that likely aren't in the market for one of the smaller jobs that opens up).

Plus it was said somewhere that he would keep many of the Defensive staff thus saving them money on buyouts and hiring new staff. That actually makes sense. 

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Just now, crash_davis said:

Plus it was said somewhere that he would keep many of the Defensive staff thus saving them money on buyouts and hiring new staff. That actually makes sense. 

It's not going to surprise me at all if announced Sunday after Thanksgiving (or that Saturday night) and it comes out later that the deal was cut last week.

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1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Regarding DeBoer - saw someone on twitter pointing out what a shitty recruiter he is even within the state of Washington.  The Huskies don't have any commits from the top 25 in the state of Washington.

 

 

 

He doesn't NEED highly rated recruits!

De Beers finds diamonds in the rough!

 

Celebrity gif. Jennifer Lawrence on a talk show tilts her head to the side and does a dramatic and obvious wink, smiling. Text, "*Wink!*"

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

It's not going to surprise me at all if announced Sunday after Thanksgiving (or that Saturday night) and it comes out later that the deal was cut last week.

if they are smart they announce it after the Duke game is over on 11/25

that gives them 3 full weekends for OVs + setting up staff and maximizes the time they have him on site.

add in that you can still roll with Robinson as the interim coach so Elko focuses on building for next year and it's a win-win. you get the extra practices, you can start to evaluate dudes for next year, etc.

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7 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Plus it was said somewhere that he would keep many of the Defensive staff thus saving them money on buyouts and hiring new staff. That actually makes sense. 

It’s actually not a horrible move if you believe that Elko can fix the offense quickly, and get the defense playing back like it was. They only have to give him a four year deal, maybe five, at a reasonable price.It could be a quick fix that doesn’t cost too much or take too long. But as to whether it’s a great long term hire? Probably not. I think this takes them from 8-4 every year to 9-3. 

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2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

It’s actually not a horrible move if you believe that Elko can fix the offense quickly, and get the defense playing back like it was. They only have to give him a four year deal, maybe five, at a reasonable price.It could be a quick fix that doesn’t cost too much or take too long. But as to whether it’s a great long term hire? Probably not. I think this takes them from 8-4 every year to 9-3. 

It certainly gives them a better chance of winning that Jimbo.    But it also certainly doesn't scream title contender overnight.  They were in a shitty situation but it will never cease to amaze me they blew $80MM+ because Texas is 9-1 (with a W @Bama) and joining the SEC next year.  There is zero chance if either of those weren't true they make this move.  

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Spoiler

 

Coaching Candidate: The case for Jeff Traylor

Mike Roach STAFF 247

 

The NCAA coaching carousel is already roaring to life and it should be at full speed in a few weeks. One of the hottest names available will be Jeff Traylor. A former long-time high school coach in the state of Texas, Traylor has been one of the biggest success stories going from the prep level to the college level.

After beginning his high school coaching career in 1990 at Big Sandy (Texas) High School in East Texas, Traylor rose to prominence as an assistant at Jacksonville (Texas) where he helped mold future NFL quarterbacks Josh McCown and Luke McCown before returning to his hometown of Gilmer (Texas) as head coach.

While at Gilmer, Traylor posted a 175-26 record. He reached the state title game five times and walked away with three championships cementing himself as one of the best high school football coaches in Texas high school football history. His success was so great that the Buckeyes named their stadium after him following renovations. Author Hunter Taylor profiled Traylor in his book Draw The Line: Jeff Traylor, The Gilmer Buckeyes, And a Season Deep in the Heart of East Texas.

247Sports National Scouting Editor Gabe Brooks knew Traylor well having covered his prep career at the Longview News-Journal and ETSN. A firsthand witness to Traylor’s success, Brooks said his ability as a program leader set him apart.

"Jeff Traylor turned his hometown alma mater into arguably the top program in its classification for a 15-year span,” Brooks said. “Yes, Gilmer had plenty of talent, but many small-town programs in East Texas have talent on an annual basis, and very few find the long-term, consistent success Gilmer achieved during the Traylor era. He's a motivator extraordinaire, and he knows how to convince his personnel to get up for every game, every situation. His team could be expected to win 60-0, but he would somehow convince his players that nobody outside the fieldhouse gave them a chance. The one word recruits over the years have used to describe Traylor is 'real.' He's as real as it gets. He can read a room within 30 seconds of entering, and he's gonna treat everybody the same. Not at all the type of person who's interested only in who can help him."

Traylor left Gilmer to join Charlie Strong’s staff at Texas in 2015. While in Austin he developed a reputation as an ace recruiter using his relationships with high school coaches in the state to land several highly-ranked prospects. Following Strong’s dismissal, Traylor joined Chad Morris’s staff at SMU and followed him to Arkansas where he served as the associate head coach.

In 2020, Traylor was hired as head coach at UTSA. A fledgling program at the time, Traylor did what he does best and turned it into an immediate winner. Under Traylor, the Roadrunners went 7-5 in his first year before finishing with double digit wins and back-to-back Conference USA championships in the next two seasons. Now in the American Athletic Conference, Traylor has the Roadrunners off to a 6-0 start in conference as they push for a conference championship appearance.

Traylor’s transformation of the program has been one of the best success stories in college football. After launching the program in 2011, the Roadrunners logged 41 total wins and three total winning seasons before Traylor. Since arriving in 2020, Traylor produced four straight winning seasons and a 37-13 overall record. The program’s 16-game conference winning streak is the third longest active streak in college football trailing Washington (17) and Georgia (28).

Traylor’s results are even more impressive when you consider the lack of resources he’s had to work with. The UTSA program has very little to work with in the NIL era, and Traylor has been tasked with fundraising to build more practice facilities. His recruiting results are impressive considering he doesn’t have the budget for a large personnel staff like most programs. His results on the field have worked against him in ways as power programs have poached talent and coaches.

After losing offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. to Illinois following the 2021 season, Traylor promoted wide receivers coach Will Stein to lead the offense. Stein was poached by Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, and he’s been incredibly successful leading the Ducks this season. Ole Miss came calling for Traylor’s leading receiver Zakhari Frankllin via the NCAA Transfer Portal, but the Roadrunners kept winning.

Traylor’s reputation is that of a fiery leader and culture guy, but it shouldn’t be forgotten that he was seen as an incredibly innovative offensive mind during his high school career and rise through the college ranks. UTSA’s success in the face of constant turnover is the best evidence of that.

A relentless recruiter who has had success everywhere he’s been, Traylor was originally seen as an East Texas specialist. While nobody is better than him in that region, he’s proven that authenticity and relationships can produce in any part of the country. Under Traylor, the Roadrunners have built a strong roster, and he’s excelled at keeping several players with bigger offers at home in San Antonio.

Knowing that he couldn’t go head-to-head with the bigger programs in the area, Traylor focused on finding undervalued athletes who either had specific fits in his system or those with remarkable athletic traits that needed to be refined. Trusting in his staff’s ability, Traylor has been successful at turning those traits into production. Under his watch, UTSA produced NFL players Tariq Woolen, Spencer Burford, Leroy Watson and Sincere McCormick.

Traylor signed a 10-year, $28 million contract extension in October of 2021 as his name came up for openings at TCU and Texas Tech. His buyout is currently at $7 million. Traylor speaks openly about the fact that he’s never been motivated by money. He’s also spoken about his love for San Antonio and how the city is a perfect fit for his family. Any move he makes would need to be the right fit for him to pursue.

 

 

Responses to Roach's article:

 

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(Perroni and Roach, in this gif ... )

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I'm going to be pretty shocked if it's not Elko.  Just too obvious given he was just there a few years ago.   It's a hire Billy and the rest of the Ag media can sell (much moreso than Traylor).  He would likely be able to keep most of the defensive talent/recruits.  The question would obviously be offense.  I don't know much about the current Duke OC (Kevin Johns) but he doesn't have a resume that jumps off the page.  Getting a home run OC hire is what would be tough as not many names that really jump out at you (that likely aren't in the market for one of the smaller jobs that opens up).

Sir - I’ll have you know right now that they have Bobby “motorcycle” Petrino on staff right now. The home run hire has been made. The cake is baked.
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6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

It certainly gives them a better chance of winning that Jimbo.    But it also certainly doesn't scream title contender overnight.  They were in a shitty situation but it will never cease to amaze me they blew $80MM+ because Texas is 9-1 (with a W @Bama) and joining the SEC next year.  There is zero chance if either of those weren't true they make this move.  

And just to take that thought further, I know Jimbo was pretty dumb, and had made a bunch of poor roster moves, and had an ancient offense. But if they just would have given it another year or two just see if Petrino made a difference, and to see Weigman back, they might have actually gotten to 9-3 anyway. There still is some talent on that roster.  So they blew $80MM to basically get to the same record they probably would have had anyway.   

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8 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

And just to take that thought further, I know Jimbo was pretty dumb, and had made a bunch of poor roster moves, and had an ancient offense. But if they just would have given it another year or two just see if Petrino made a difference, and to see Weigman back, they might have actually gotten to 9-3 anyway. There still is some talent on that roster.  So they blew $80MM to basically get to the same record they probably would have had anyway.   

I'm not going to take the position that Elko doesn't have more upside than Jimbo.  Because at this point in his tenure and lack of momentum, just about anyone that takes that job probably has more upside.  But I think they let it play out 2 more years if not for Texas winning + moving to the SEC.  Not only would it save $15MM+, but punting an up front $19MM payment 2 years down the road has a lot of value in the current interest rate environment

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3 hours ago, Skipper said:

I'm not going to take the position that Elko doesn't have more upside than Jimbo. 

Anybody that says Elko or Traylor have more upside than Jimbo are just guessing. 

Both have terrible records against good teams. Hell, 98% of Traylor's wins are against non-top 50 teams. Elko has 1 top 25 win. It's a complete guess because neither Elko or Traylor have shown any ability to beat good teams at their current schools. 

The "this X coach can beat good teams with more talent" argument is often what suckers schools into hiring mediocre coaches. 

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5 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Anybody that says Elko or Traylor have more upside than Jimbo are just guessing. 

Both have terrible records against good teams. Hell, 98% of Traylor's wins are against non-top 50 teams. Elko has 1 top 25 win. It's a complete guess because neither Elko or Traylor have shown any ability to beat good teams at their current schools. 

The "this X coach can beat good teams with more talent" argument is often what suckers schools into hiring mediocre coaches. 

I used the word "upside" for a reason.  I'm not saying it's likely either would out-perform Jimbo.   But I would give literally anyone qualified to obtain the A&M coaching job better odds of a top 5 finish in 2025 or 2026 compared to Jimbo simply because after back-to-back disappointing seasons in years 5 and 6 he had lost all momentum, didn't have player buy in and his roster was about to become even worse.  Everyone was predicting another mass portal exodus this year and his roster management has proven to be absolute shit before that even while signing top classes.  Again, I don't think it's "likely" either Elko or Traylor has A&M making a deep playoff run in the near term.  But it's more likely than if Jimbo were coaching.  So yes, I think more upside.   I would have been absolutely thrilled with 2 more seasons of Jimbo instead of competing against a new name and renewed booster enthusiasm (portal $$).  I don't know how those idiots can afford it, and I certainly don't think it's going to win a risk/reward analysis with the $$ we're talking about, but making the change now did increase their odds of near term success at least some amount no matter who they hire.   

Would obviously be happy to see a roster exodus and portal flop prove me wrong.

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Have high school coaches ever worked out? The graveyard is large: Gerry Faust, Chad Morris, Tony Sanchez, Todd Dodge. 

Gus Malzahn did make a title game—in year 1 with another coach’s recruits—but also was ultimately fired after 8 seasons, all the rest having 4+ losses.

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4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

But I would give literally anyone qualified to obtain the A&M coaching job better odds of a top 5 finish in 2025 or 2026 compared to Jimbo simply because after back-to-back disappointing seasons in years 5 and 6 he had lost all momentum, didn't have player buy in and his roster was about to become even worse. 

I just think it's difficult to project coaches like Traylor and Elko. They're a complete guess because their resume is built on beating mediocre to bad teams. 

Charlie Strong probably had a similar resume (maybe even better) than both Elko and Traylor when looking at quality wins at Louisville. We saw how that turned out. Unless you're hiring a top tier candidate than "upside" is never a for sure thing no matter how shitty the previous coach left things. 

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I know I'm on a tangent here about Traylor but the other thing that really bothers me about him is how many games he's been in 1 score games against mediocre to bad teams. 

Last year 3 point win vs Army, 3 point win vs WKU, 4 point win vs UNT, 6 point win vs UAB, 3 point win vs UTEP. This is where luck comes into play. 

I'm having a hard time getting behind the group think when it comes to Traylor the more I look at what he's done at UTSA. He's done a good job at UTSA but damn there are a lot of red flags from my perspective. 

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12 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I know I'm on a tangent here about Traylor but the other thing that really bothers me about him is how many games he's been in 1 score games against mediocre to bad teams. 

Last year 3 point win vs Army, 3 point win vs WKU, 4 point win vs UNT, 6 point win vs UAB, 3 point win vs UTEP. This is where luck comes into play. 

I'm having a hard time getting behind the group think when it comes to Traylor the more I look at what he's done at UTSA. He's done a good job at UTSA but damn there are a lot of red flags from my perspective. 

It's hard to think of more red flags.

🚩 High school coach

🚩 G5 coach

🚩 All success from a single QB

🚩 Extremely lucky in close games

🚩 Literally named trailer

aggy will have really outdone themselves in their inferiority complex if they spend $76 million to get the coach at Texas State's safety school.

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4 minutes ago, Vermin said:

It's hard to think of more red flags.

🚩 High school coach

🚩 G5 coach

🚩 All success from a single QB

🚩 Extremely lucky in close games

🚩 Literally named trailer

aggy will have really outdone themselves in their inferiority complex if they spend $76 million to get the coach at Texas State's safety school.

I laughed. I personally think there is a lot of bias with Traylor because he's a very likable guy and a good ole Texas boy. But if we're speaking honestly here, there are a ton of red flags. 

1) 2-6 record against top 50 teams (per ESPN efficiency). Will probably finish 2-7 after Tulane. 

2) A bunch of close wins against mediocre to bad teams. 

3) Their offensive success has been really dependent on a top-tier G5 QB. 

4) He's never really had any experience navigating the ins and out of recruiting/NIL/etc at a big boy school like aggy. 

I think Traylor has done a good job at UTSA but come on.....this would not be a good hire. 

 

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Man, I am enjoying all of these “you fucking idiots, if our rivals hire THIS shitty, overrated coach it would be an absolute disaster for THEM!” arguments that are popping up on every thread. I have no fucking idea what they are attempting to ward US off of, but I’m glad Texas is 9-1 and we can spend time ceaselessly bitching about who everybody else might hire (and why that is fucking stupid) for a change.

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I’ll just add my two cents—I’m baffled as to why Joey McGuire hasn’t already been hired. Dude beat OU, Texas, AND Ole Miss in the same fucking year. He did that and has all the quintessential aggie traits. He’s the fucking one, ags. Go gig him.

giphy.webp

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Liucci has apparently also been saying there's been some internal pressure to just hire Robinson with a good OC and current defensive staff. Imagine them firing Jimbo in case they beat LSU and instead it happens with Robinson who ends up getting the job. 

 

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1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Unless you're hiring a top tier candidate than "upside" is never a for sure thing no matter how shitty the previous coach left things. 

I don't think you understand the definition of "upside".   Upside does not equal "sure thing".  Far from it.  If Jimbo has a 1% chance of reaching a national championship game in 2 years, and his replacement has a 1.5% chance, then by definition, that replacement has more upside.

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5 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

Not a Jeff Traylor Stan or anything, but just genuinely curious.

How many top-50 wins and blowouts would everyone expect from a good coach at UTSA? Since this is the criteria put forward in the thread.

Not sure. But a potentially 2-7 record against top 50 teams with a bunch of close wins against the likes of UTEP, UNT, UAB, etc doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. I don't know what that threshold would be but the current profile doesn't make me think Traylor would be a particularly good hire. 

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7 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Its fucking UTSA. They’re not gonna have a winning record vs top 50 teams regardless of how good their coach is. Kirby smart wouldn’t have a winning record. Be realistic here.

This is inherently the problem with hiring these type of coaches. 

When Florida hired Napier the argument that everyone was screaming from the roof top was "the lack of quality wins at ULL is because it's fucking ULL." You're only reiterating why these type of hires are huge risks. 

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This is inherently the problem with hiring these type of coaches. 
When Florida hired Napier the argument that everyone was screaming from the roof top was "the lack of quality wins at ULL is because it's fucking ULL." You're only reiterating why these type of hires are huge risks. 

I don’t disagree. I just don’t think you can call it a red flag.
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5 minutes ago, irishtexan said:


I don’t disagree. I just don’t think you can call it a red flag.

Fair but agree to disagree. 2-7 against top 50 teams doesn't give you pause on hiring a coach? 

I should also specify that only 2 of those games were against a P5 team (Texas and Tennessee).  So while it is UTSA, the top 50 teams they were playing weren't P5 juggernauts. 

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1 hour ago, irishtexan said:

It’s fucking UTSA. They’re not gonna have a winning record vs top 50 teams regardless of how good their coach is. Kirby smart wouldn’t have a winning record. Be realistic here.

Urban Meyer took a Utah program that had 1 ten win season in its 100 year history and went 10-2 and 12-0 in two years there. I don’t know how many top 50 teams he beat, but presumably a few as he beat several P5 teams (or whatever they were called then) during that run. 

That Traylor isn’t an Urban level slam dunk hire isn’t exactly a hot take. But it’s not unrealistic for a truly elite coach to break through from a small school. 

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