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Astros 2020-21 offseason- can't be any worse than last year, right? RIGHT?


Wulaw Horn

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12 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

My hope with Correa is based on how saturated the SS market is going to be next off-season. Correa, Lindor, Story, Baez, Seager are all set to hit free agency at once. Maybe the abundance of SS options depresses the market a bit, and maybe that makes him more likely to listen on a potential extension with the Astros. 

Then again, maybe the Mets extend Lindor like LA did with Betts last year, and maybe the Dodgers extend Seager too, and that saturated SS market never really materializes.

 

This on top of Simmons, Semien, and Gregorius this year.

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16 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

enough already.  go ahead and break the fucking bank with correa.  he's an mvp talent at a need position, and he's shown he wants to be an astro for life.  he's entering his year 26 season, so he's still getting better.  give him 6+ years, it's worth it.

sure, it would be great if everyone stayed for cheap and nobody cheated and we beat the nats and blah blah blah but this ain't that.

sign him and go win some fucking baseball games, i'm sick of this shit.

Would you sign him for 10 years? That's what he's probably going to get.

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So just got off the phone with my season ticket guy. He told me he’s about 98% sure I will have a ticket to every game I want to see. Not sure how good the seats will be but he said we are high enough on the priority list that staying at 25% capacity means we will get everything. 
season ticket base lost 30% from end of 2019 until today. And it’s about 70/30 on what’s left in favor (conceptually) with want to go in 2021 vs roll it over. Of course- if they tell me I’m sitting in section 431 row 17 I’m out. But anything 319 ish or better and I’m going to pull the trigger. 

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1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

@Ldogg53 could have some good insight. From what I gather he went better 

I’ve got sweet seats. Like 109 row 20. Half way between 3B and the left field pole. But all the guys behind home plate will be moved, the people lower will be moved higher and it will be a cascade effect. Supposed to find out around March 1 what’s up. Will post here how it all shakes out. 
might have some tickets available from time to time on the season ticket thread. 

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57 minutes ago, Scraps said:

More tampa bs

Sign a CF bitch. Straw ain't it.

Agree wholeheartedly. The only reason I can see for not adding one is they believe Leon has a shorter path to the majors than everyone else and are waiting to see if they can get someone on a cheap one year deal right before training camp...so hopefully soon.

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1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

What was @Mez2 or @tx 3 putt not available? Low risk but very meh signing 

I asked if I was playing CF and my ticket guy said open tryout- bring a glove. 
 

on a serious note he did say Correa is not upset about going to arbitration he doesn’t view the Astros as being cheap or low balling him fwiw. 

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9 hours ago, TexArcher said:

Steven Souza?

Is he gonna drive the train or wear the Orbit costume or something?

NRI deal, absolutely no risk.  Souza was a star player in 2017 and has been hurt since; I also think Click might think Souza can play CF.  There are still some moves that could be made (Bradley, Pillar, and Marisnick are all still available, as are trade options like Benintendi).  But if Souza is the 8 hole hitter on opening day I'm ok with it.

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29 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

NRI deal, absolutely no risk.  Souza was a star player in 2017 and has been hurt since; I also think Click might think Souza can play CF.  There are still some moves that could be made (Bradley, Pillar, and Marisnick are all still available, as are trade options like Benintendi).  But if Souza is the 8 hole hitter on opening day I'm ok with it.

A star player in 2017?  Yeah, he hit 30 homers, but he also hit .239.  And that's the second best batting average he's ever had.

I get that it's no-risk.  But he's basically a scratch-off ticket with a very mediocre possible payout.  If he's a starter on Opening Day, that ain't good at all.

 

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1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

NRI deal, absolutely no risk.  Souza was a star player in 2017 and has been hurt since; I also think Click might think Souza can play CF.  There are still some moves that could be made (Bradley, Pillar, and Marisnick are all still available, as are trade options like Benintendi).  But if Souza is the 8 hole hitter on opening day I'm ok with it.

Souza has never and will never be a CF.

I am sorry, he's played .90% of his total innings of his OF career in CF.

Edited by HtownHorn
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I doubt Souza play much. I assume that would mean Tucker would be in CF, and that doesn't seem like a good fit. 

I'm accepting that Straw is going to be the Opening Day CF. It isn't good, but probably not terrible either. FG/ZIPs projects this from Straw:

.253/.321/.319 (77 wRC+) with good baserunning and defensive metrics (enough to project to +1.3 WAR in 127 games despite that slash line).

Again...it's less than ideal. But...if he plays great defense in CF and gets on base 1/3 of the time, and does his thing on the bases...it's probably not a disaster in this lineup, as a #9 hitter. If Brantley is playing LF most days, you'll need a CF who can cover a lot of ground. 

Pillar, for example, projects to hit .283/.317/.451 (82 wRC+) and to be worth...1.3 WAR. He'll hit with some power, but projects to be less valuable in CF and on the bases. But their overall value projects to be identical. 

I don't love it, but Straw in CF makes some sense, at least to open the season. 

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32 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

A star player in 2017?  Yeah, he hit 30 homers, but he also hit .239.  And that's the second best batting average he's ever had.

I get that it's no-risk.  But he's basically a scratch-off ticket with a very mediocre possible payout.  If he's a starter on Opening Day, that ain't good at all.

 

Batting average is an awful way to evaluate a hitter.  His 2017 slash line of .239/.351/.459 was 21% above the average MLB hitter and he was the 20th most valuable OF in all of MLB (fWAR).

As for 2021, most projections have him as a roughly league average hitter (~.220/.320/.410).  That’s about what they expect from Yuli Gurriel.  If Souza is able to stay healthy and handle CF (big ifs), he’s a good everyday player.  Worst case he’ll probably be as good as Reddick was the last 3 seasons.

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4 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Souza has never and will never be a CF.

I am sorry, he's played .90% of his total innings of his OF career in CF.

I am making an assumption based on a comment from one of the reporters after talking with Click (something to the effect of “Souza can play all 3 OF spots”).  I agree Souza is unlikely to be a good CF but it’s the kind of outside the box move Click might be willing to try, knowing he has Straw as insurance and Leon on the way.

Souza may not even make the team.  His signing could have been insurance against a spring training injury or a signal to one of the players they are trying to sign (like Bradley/Pillar/Puig/Marisnick).  But if he does make the team I am comfortable with him in the lineup.

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2 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I am making an assumption based on a comment from one of the reporters after talking with Click (something to the effect of “Souza can play all 3 OF spots”).  I agree Souza is unlikely to be a good CF but it’s the kind of outside the box move Click might be willing to try, knowing he has Straw as insurance and Leon on the way.

Souza may not even make the team.  His signing could have been insurance against a spring training injury or a signal to one of the players they are trying to sign (like Bradley/Pillar/Puig/Marisnick).  But if he does make the team I am comfortable with him in the lineup.

Souza was also in the organization that Click came from, and was never seen as a CF, granted they also had the best defensive OF in the majors in his prime during that time frame too. I guess he could play CF in a pinch, and his bat is absolutely better than Straw's if he's healthy.

That said I don't want either(Straw and Souza) getting more than 150 PAs combined.

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4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Batting average is an awful way to evaluate a hitter.  His 2017 slash line of .239/.351/.459 was 21% above the average MLB hitter and he was the 20th most valuable OF in all of MLB (fWAR).

As for 2021, most projections have him as a roughly league average hitter (~.220/.320/.410).  That’s about what they expect from Yuli Gurriel.  If Souza is able to stay healthy and handle CF (big ifs), he’s a good everyday player.  Worst case he’ll probably be as good as Reddick was the last 3 seasons.

Dude, just stop.  You're talking about how he was slightly above average in his career year as if there's some reason to expect a return to "form" after three years of injuries. 

"A good everyday player"??  He's Steven Souza, for god's sake.  He's signed to a minor league contract and might not even make the team and you're ready to plug him into CF.

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1 minute ago, HtownHorn said:

Souza was also in the organization that Click came from, and was never seen as a CF, granted they also had the best defensive OF in the majors in his prime during that time frame too. I guess he could play CF in a pinch, and his bat is absolutely better than Straw's if he's healthy.

That said I don't want either(Straw and Souza) getting more than 150 PAs combined.

Outside of last season with the Cubs, Souza has only been on teams with stellar defensive CF (Kiermeier with the Rays and Pollock with the DBacks).

Its ok to be disappointed if Souza is an opening day starter, but given the Astros financial situation it may not have been reasonable to expect much more.

Given that Straw’s worst case is that he is primary backup at 4 positions (CF, SS, RF, LF), he is almost guaranteed to get 300+ pa this season.

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3 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Dude, just stop.  You're talking about how he was slightly above average in his career year as if there's some reason to expect a return to "form" after three years of injuries. 

"A good everyday player"??  He's Steven Souza, for god's sake.  He's signed to a minor league contract and might not even make the team and you're ready to plug him into CF.

I’m just looking at the numbers, dude.  I’m not “ready to plug him into CF”, I just trust the GM and don’t see adding a guy who projects to be a league average player on an NRI as a bad thing.

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I got a little desk calendar that has facts or trivia daily on it regarding Stros, or baseball in general.  I may throw a few here every so often if anyone wants to try and answer without looking up.  

 

One for today was Who was the first Astros player to hit a leadoff homer on Opening Day?

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6 hours ago, Scraps said:

I got a little desk calendar that has facts or trivia daily on it regarding Stros, or baseball in general.  I may throw a few here every so often if anyone wants to try and answer without looking up.  

 

One for today was Who was the first Astros player to hit a leadoff homer on Opening Day?

George?

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