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Posted
12 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Well, it's not a debate if it's legal or not - it isn't. You're excusing his dictatorial actions and insisting that anyone who takes issue with them is deranged with a mental condition. So yeah, you're gonna keep getting that bucket of cold water that "maybe we shouldn't let a pedophile unilaterally declare what is and isn't legal"

JFC.  Why are you you. Just because political rage consumes every single aspect of your pathetic life doesn't mean everyone else wants that.  

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Posted
20 hours ago, Anastasis said:

SPY trading at all time highs. Some surly posters cracking. Wish I had held on to those Sept 550 calls longer. 

It usually is trading at all time highs right before the calamitous crash.

Posted

Loving the Snowflake after-hour movement

Dont agree with immediate reaction to Nvidia. Beats the expectations but analysts don't like next quarter's estimates? Sounds like a buy if it stays flat

Posted
47 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Loving the Snowflake after-hour movement

Dont agree with immediate reaction to Nvidia. Beats the expectations but analysts don't like next quarter's estimates? Sounds like a buy if it stays flat

The market often moves the opposite of our expectations. That’s how the whales win and we lose. Analysts search for the cause and make up a reason so they can justify their employment. We all awkwardly nod as if we understand.

Posted

It's wild seeing all the buy signals for NVDA, they have way down forecasts on sales looking forward. I've posted on the chatGPT thread, but the whole LLM game is horrifically unprofitable despite our entire economy riding on that one thing 

Posted

As I watch PLTR drift down in pre-market closer to the price where my super loose stops washed me out that pissed me off 10 days ago, I feel like better this morning.  As the price gets closer to where I stopped out, in pre-market, i feel so much less FOMO.  

I have a feeling this thread is going to get a lot more popular as we head into the Fall.  

Posted

my dimming view of the way our economy is structured has made some gains lately.  the rich get richer.  so i turned to VUG to invest in the 'rich.'  

 

NVDA NVIDIA Corp. 67066G104 2379504 12.64 % 230,706,147 $41,035,702,367
MSFT Microsoft Corp. 594918104 2588173 12.18 % 74,117,576 $39,541,726,796
AAPL Apple Inc. 037833100 2046251 9.48 % 148,279,689 $30,778,415,046
AMZN Amazon.com Inc. 023135106 2000019 6.72 % 93,240,602 $21,828,557,334
META Facebook Inc. Class A 30303M102 B7TL820 4.62 % 19,403,615 $15,007,531,986
AVGO Broadcom Inc. 11135F101 BDZ78H9 4.39 % 48,482,228 $14,239,230,364
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A 02079K305 BYVY8G0 3.34 % 56,442,683 $10,831,350,868
TSLA Tesla Inc. 88160R101 B616C79 2.69 % 28,277,687 $8,717,162,571
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Class C 02079K107 BYY88Y7 2.67 % 44,992,482 $8,677,250,079
LLY Eli Lilly & Co. 532457108 2516152 2.01 % 8,821,196 $6,528,302,524

 

that's about 60% of its makeup.  versus something like VOO, which has a composition like this:


 

 

 

NVDA NVIDIA Corp. 67066G104 2379504 8.06 % 603,678,512 $107,376,296,929
MSFT Microsoft Corp. 594918104 2588173 7.37 % 183,983,732 $98,155,321,022
AAPL Apple Inc. 037833100 2046251 5.76 % 369,718,204 $76,742,407,604
AMZN Amazon.com Inc. 023135106 2000019 4.11 % 233,888,096 $54,755,542,155
META Facebook Inc. Class A 30303M102 B7TL820 3.12 % 53,743,894 $41,567,677,375
AVGO Broadcom Inc. 11135F101 BDZ78H9 2.57 % 116,390,989 $34,184,033,469
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A 02079K305 BYVY8G0 2.08 % 144,069,236 $27,646,886,388
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Class C 02079K107 BYY88Y7 1.68 % 116,209,996 $22,412,259,829
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B 084670702 2073390 1.61 % 45,392,119 $21,419,633,114
TSLA Tesla Inc. 88160R101 B616C79 1.61 % 69,365,314 $21,383,245,347

 

that's 38% of its makeup.  flatter at the top to be more diversified in VOO and SPY and what not.  

 

VUG being heavier for the biggest winners has allowed me to outpace most stuff, and still stay basically broad in an ETF way.  VUG v VOO, below.

 

image.png.ed75cdf8cf74c59e3fecea3ff19c5738.png

 

anyhow, that's one nice thing about our oligarchy.  they're going to oligarch.  might as well hop on.

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Posted

My be old news to most, but I heard the term, "K curve" for the first time today, when describing our economy.  If you're wealthy enough to have money invested in the market, an older, low rate mortgage, etc, you're in great shape.  Your salary is barely keeping up with inflation but so what.  Stonks to the moon.

But if you DON'T have money saved, it's more about trying to find cash to put down on a house and make a mortgage cash flow, all while paying high rent and car payments.

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Posted

every day some new signal comes out saying we are in a bubble and the apocalypse is nigh.  it always seems persuasive to my uneducated eyes. yet every day the market goes higher.  what am I supposed to do with this information

Posted
1 hour ago, ImNotMarkinson said:

every day some new signal comes out saying we are in a bubble and the apocalypse is nigh.  it always seems persuasive to my uneducated eyes. yet every day the market goes higher.  what am I supposed to do with this information

 

images (2).jpeg

Posted
1 hour ago, ImNotMarkinson said:

every day some new signal comes out saying we are in a bubble and the apocalypse is nigh.  it always seems persuasive to my uneducated eyes. yet every day the market goes higher.  what am I supposed to do with this information

Sell everything every day at close. 

Posted
3 hours ago, immamac said:

Sell everything every day at close. 

That's way to much work, especially when put options exist. They allow you to turn losing money in the market from a marathon into a spring.

Posted
5 hours ago, ImNotMarkinson said:

every day some new signal comes out saying we are in a bubble and the apocalypse is nigh.  it always seems persuasive to my uneducated eyes. yet every day the market goes higher.  what am I supposed to do with this information

Depends on how you are positioned in the market. 

I think a correction will come eventually because inflation is rising. I figure we will be at 3.5% inflation heading into Christmas.  Whether that does anything to the market who knows. 

 

 

 

 

Posted (edited)

Counterpoint - a large portion of the inflation calc is housing costs. All of the housing economists I follow say the calc the govt uses for the housing portion lags way behind or just does not get the housing costs change correct. It’s still going up according to the CPI when me and every other housing developer in the country can tell you that hasn’t been happening at all for the last two years.

 

If it just lags and finally catches up, it’s going to put significant downward pressure on the CPI calc for a while.

 

Your eggs and k cups may be going up in costs but rents sure as fuck aren’t. 

Edited by tbone_
Posted
2 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Your eggs and k cups may be going up in costs but rents sure as fuck aren’t. 

Well they've nearly doubled over the last decade so I'm not sure if there's any blood left to suck for the landlords

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Well they've nearly doubled over the last decade so I'm not sure if there's any blood left to suck for the landlords

Actually that’s not true. Incomes have been growing much faster than rents over the last 2 years or so. And they did not double, at least not in the averages. But they did go up a shitload in 2H2020 and 2021 - 20-30% for that period in many markets. Too much for sure.

 

The issue for falling rents isn’t income. It’s too much supply. But starts have fallen off a cliff recently so the supply is getting absorbed and there won’t be much new supply coming before long. Housing economists are predicting significant rent growth coming in 27/28/29 because of the combination of falling supply and growing incomes.

 

And oh by the way, we all hear lots of talk these days that we need more housing to bring the prices down. Well guess what gets more housing built? Landlords and their capital partners believing there is blood to suck. Because we live in a world where housing only gets built if people think they can earn more money doing it than in some other endeavor.

 

You know what isn’t a good environment for new housing to get built? One where new supply is rampant and rents are falling. Weird paradox for sure. 

Edited by tbone_
Posted

Also sorry, I read your post wrong. You said the last decade. That’s true. They probably have nearly doubled over the last decade. Again, supply and demand, and the incomes to pay for it are the contributing factors. 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

Because we live in a world where housing only gets built if people think they can earn more money doing it than in some other endeavor.

You know what isn’t a good environment for new housing to get built? One where new supply is rampant and rents are falling. Weird paradox for sure. 

Yeah, gotta drive some homelessness to really get the goosed rent numbers going, I gotcha. Heaven forbid we have enough housing that everyone can afford to stay in, what a terrible idea

1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

Also sorry, I read your post wrong. You said the last decade. That’s true. They probably have nearly doubled over the last decade. Again, supply and demand, and the incomes to pay for it are the contributing factors. 

Median incomes have not doubled in the last decade. Hell, they haven't doubled since the 80s. Despite the "economy" (read: stock market and shareholder value extraction) adding on a few zeros in the same time interval. It's not incomes increasing that's driving the rent increase, it's been illegal collusion via Realpage and the other rent collusion platforms

 

Edit: just to really drive the point home, the meteoric rent increases STOPPED when propublica published their initial reporting and got DOJ sniffing around in 2022. It lines up quite nicely with your rent increase timeline through 2020-2021

Edited by Captainant
Posted

BTW as a follow-up for @ChickenSandwich, Lisa Cook did NOT break any rules. I wonder why else she might have been illegally fired 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/no-evidence-primary-residence-violation-by-fed-gov-lisa-cook-says-michigan-2025-09-16/

Quote

The property tax records in both states, along with Cook’s “vacation home” disclosure in Atlanta, could be considered strong factors in her defense, real estate and legal experts said. For any conviction of mortgage fraud, which is rarely pursued as a criminal offense in the United States, they said prosecutors would have to show she deliberately sought to deceive her lenders.

Paul Pelletier, a Washington-based former federal prosecutor who targeted bank fraud, said the Justice Department historically would only pursue cases in which a financial institution suffered significant loss. “This would never have crossed my desk, let alone be prosecuted,” he said, regarding the accusations against Cook so far.

The rates on Cook’s two mortgages show Cook didn’t enjoy discounts compared with prevailing rates available to borrowers when she negotiated the loans in 2021.

 

Posted
13 hours ago, ImNotMarkinson said:

every day some new signal comes out saying we are in a bubble and the apocalypse is nigh.  it always seems persuasive to my uneducated eyes. yet every day the market goes higher.  what am I supposed to do with this information

After reading about AI singularity, I’m more inclined to believe we are in a human bubble, like that of the 🦖.

I’m starting to think hedge funds are scaling out of shares because they are simply trading retail reactions via options.

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