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Posted
12 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Well, it's not a debate if it's legal or not - it isn't. You're excusing his dictatorial actions and insisting that anyone who takes issue with them is deranged with a mental condition. So yeah, you're gonna keep getting that bucket of cold water that "maybe we shouldn't let a pedophile unilaterally declare what is and isn't legal"

JFC.  Why are you you. Just because political rage consumes every single aspect of your pathetic life doesn't mean everyone else wants that.  

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Posted
20 hours ago, Anastasis said:

SPY trading at all time highs. Some surly posters cracking. Wish I had held on to those Sept 550 calls longer. 

It usually is trading at all time highs right before the calamitous crash.

Posted

Loving the Snowflake after-hour movement

Dont agree with immediate reaction to Nvidia. Beats the expectations but analysts don't like next quarter's estimates? Sounds like a buy if it stays flat

Posted
47 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Loving the Snowflake after-hour movement

Dont agree with immediate reaction to Nvidia. Beats the expectations but analysts don't like next quarter's estimates? Sounds like a buy if it stays flat

The market often moves the opposite of our expectations. That’s how the whales win and we lose. Analysts search for the cause and make up a reason so they can justify their employment. We all awkwardly nod as if we understand.

Posted

It's wild seeing all the buy signals for NVDA, they have way down forecasts on sales looking forward. I've posted on the chatGPT thread, but the whole LLM game is horrifically unprofitable despite our entire economy riding on that one thing 

Posted

As I watch PLTR drift down in pre-market closer to the price where my super loose stops washed me out that pissed me off 10 days ago, I feel like better this morning.  As the price gets closer to where I stopped out, in pre-market, i feel so much less FOMO.  

I have a feeling this thread is going to get a lot more popular as we head into the Fall.  

Posted

my dimming view of the way our economy is structured has made some gains lately.  the rich get richer.  so i turned to VUG to invest in the 'rich.'  

 

NVDA NVIDIA Corp. 67066G104 2379504 12.64 % 230,706,147 $41,035,702,367
MSFT Microsoft Corp. 594918104 2588173 12.18 % 74,117,576 $39,541,726,796
AAPL Apple Inc. 037833100 2046251 9.48 % 148,279,689 $30,778,415,046
AMZN Amazon.com Inc. 023135106 2000019 6.72 % 93,240,602 $21,828,557,334
META Facebook Inc. Class A 30303M102 B7TL820 4.62 % 19,403,615 $15,007,531,986
AVGO Broadcom Inc. 11135F101 BDZ78H9 4.39 % 48,482,228 $14,239,230,364
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A 02079K305 BYVY8G0 3.34 % 56,442,683 $10,831,350,868
TSLA Tesla Inc. 88160R101 B616C79 2.69 % 28,277,687 $8,717,162,571
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Class C 02079K107 BYY88Y7 2.67 % 44,992,482 $8,677,250,079
LLY Eli Lilly & Co. 532457108 2516152 2.01 % 8,821,196 $6,528,302,524

 

that's about 60% of its makeup.  versus something like VOO, which has a composition like this:


 

 

 

NVDA NVIDIA Corp. 67066G104 2379504 8.06 % 603,678,512 $107,376,296,929
MSFT Microsoft Corp. 594918104 2588173 7.37 % 183,983,732 $98,155,321,022
AAPL Apple Inc. 037833100 2046251 5.76 % 369,718,204 $76,742,407,604
AMZN Amazon.com Inc. 023135106 2000019 4.11 % 233,888,096 $54,755,542,155
META Facebook Inc. Class A 30303M102 B7TL820 3.12 % 53,743,894 $41,567,677,375
AVGO Broadcom Inc. 11135F101 BDZ78H9 2.57 % 116,390,989 $34,184,033,469
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A 02079K305 BYVY8G0 2.08 % 144,069,236 $27,646,886,388
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Class C 02079K107 BYY88Y7 1.68 % 116,209,996 $22,412,259,829
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B 084670702 2073390 1.61 % 45,392,119 $21,419,633,114
TSLA Tesla Inc. 88160R101 B616C79 1.61 % 69,365,314 $21,383,245,347

 

that's 38% of its makeup.  flatter at the top to be more diversified in VOO and SPY and what not.  

 

VUG being heavier for the biggest winners has allowed me to outpace most stuff, and still stay basically broad in an ETF way.  VUG v VOO, below.

 

image.png.ed75cdf8cf74c59e3fecea3ff19c5738.png

 

anyhow, that's one nice thing about our oligarchy.  they're going to oligarch.  might as well hop on.

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Posted

My be old news to most, but I heard the term, "K curve" for the first time today, when describing our economy.  If you're wealthy enough to have money invested in the market, an older, low rate mortgage, etc, you're in great shape.  Your salary is barely keeping up with inflation but so what.  Stonks to the moon.

But if you DON'T have money saved, it's more about trying to find cash to put down on a house and make a mortgage cash flow, all while paying high rent and car payments.

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Posted
1 hour ago, ImNotMarkinson said:

every day some new signal comes out saying we are in a bubble and the apocalypse is nigh.  it always seems persuasive to my uneducated eyes. yet every day the market goes higher.  what am I supposed to do with this information

 

images (2).jpeg

Posted
1 hour ago, ImNotMarkinson said:

every day some new signal comes out saying we are in a bubble and the apocalypse is nigh.  it always seems persuasive to my uneducated eyes. yet every day the market goes higher.  what am I supposed to do with this information

Sell everything every day at close. 

Posted
5 hours ago, ImNotMarkinson said:

every day some new signal comes out saying we are in a bubble and the apocalypse is nigh.  it always seems persuasive to my uneducated eyes. yet every day the market goes higher.  what am I supposed to do with this information

Depends on how you are positioned in the market. 

I think a correction will come eventually because inflation is rising. I figure we will be at 3.5% inflation heading into Christmas.  Whether that does anything to the market who knows. 

 

 

 

 

Posted (edited)

Counterpoint - a large portion of the inflation calc is housing costs. All of the housing economists I follow say the calc the govt uses for the housing portion lags way behind or just does not get the housing costs change correct. It’s still going up according to the CPI when me and every other housing developer in the country can tell you that hasn’t been happening at all for the last two years.

 

If it just lags and finally catches up, it’s going to put significant downward pressure on the CPI calc for a while.

 

Your eggs and k cups may be going up in costs but rents sure as fuck aren’t. 

Edited by tbone_
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Posted
2 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Your eggs and k cups may be going up in costs but rents sure as fuck aren’t. 

Well they've nearly doubled over the last decade so I'm not sure if there's any blood left to suck for the landlords

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Well they've nearly doubled over the last decade so I'm not sure if there's any blood left to suck for the landlords

Actually that’s not true. Incomes have been growing much faster than rents over the last 2 years or so. And they did not double, at least not in the averages. But they did go up a shitload in 2H2020 and 2021 - 20-30% for that period in many markets. Too much for sure.

 

The issue for falling rents isn’t income. It’s too much supply. But starts have fallen off a cliff recently so the supply is getting absorbed and there won’t be much new supply coming before long. Housing economists are predicting significant rent growth coming in 27/28/29 because of the combination of falling supply and growing incomes.

 

And oh by the way, we all hear lots of talk these days that we need more housing to bring the prices down. Well guess what gets more housing built? Landlords and their capital partners believing there is blood to suck. Because we live in a world where housing only gets built if people think they can earn more money doing it than in some other endeavor.

 

You know what isn’t a good environment for new housing to get built? One where new supply is rampant and rents are falling. Weird paradox for sure. 

Edited by tbone_
Posted

Also sorry, I read your post wrong. You said the last decade. That’s true. They probably have nearly doubled over the last decade. Again, supply and demand, and the incomes to pay for it are the contributing factors. 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

Because we live in a world where housing only gets built if people think they can earn more money doing it than in some other endeavor.

You know what isn’t a good environment for new housing to get built? One where new supply is rampant and rents are falling. Weird paradox for sure. 

Yeah, gotta drive some homelessness to really get the goosed rent numbers going, I gotcha. Heaven forbid we have enough housing that everyone can afford to stay in, what a terrible idea

1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

Also sorry, I read your post wrong. You said the last decade. That’s true. They probably have nearly doubled over the last decade. Again, supply and demand, and the incomes to pay for it are the contributing factors. 

Median incomes have not doubled in the last decade. Hell, they haven't doubled since the 80s. Despite the "economy" (read: stock market and shareholder value extraction) adding on a few zeros in the same time interval. It's not incomes increasing that's driving the rent increase, it's been illegal collusion via Realpage and the other rent collusion platforms

 

Edit: just to really drive the point home, the meteoric rent increases STOPPED when propublica published their initial reporting and got DOJ sniffing around in 2022. It lines up quite nicely with your rent increase timeline through 2020-2021

Edited by Captainant
Posted

BTW as a follow-up for @ChickenSandwich, Lisa Cook did NOT break any rules. I wonder why else she might have been illegally fired 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/no-evidence-primary-residence-violation-by-fed-gov-lisa-cook-says-michigan-2025-09-16/

Quote

The property tax records in both states, along with Cook’s “vacation home” disclosure in Atlanta, could be considered strong factors in her defense, real estate and legal experts said. For any conviction of mortgage fraud, which is rarely pursued as a criminal offense in the United States, they said prosecutors would have to show she deliberately sought to deceive her lenders.

Paul Pelletier, a Washington-based former federal prosecutor who targeted bank fraud, said the Justice Department historically would only pursue cases in which a financial institution suffered significant loss. “This would never have crossed my desk, let alone be prosecuted,” he said, regarding the accusations against Cook so far.

The rates on Cook’s two mortgages show Cook didn’t enjoy discounts compared with prevailing rates available to borrowers when she negotiated the loans in 2021.

 

Posted
13 hours ago, ImNotMarkinson said:

every day some new signal comes out saying we are in a bubble and the apocalypse is nigh.  it always seems persuasive to my uneducated eyes. yet every day the market goes higher.  what am I supposed to do with this information

After reading about AI singularity, I’m more inclined to believe we are in a human bubble, like that of the 🦖.

I’m starting to think hedge funds are scaling out of shares because they are simply trading retail reactions via options.

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Captainant said:

Yeah, gotta drive some homelessness to really get the goosed rent numbers going, I gotcha. Heaven forbid we have enough housing that everyone can afford to stay in, what a terrible idea

Median incomes have not doubled in the last decade. Hell, they haven't doubled since the 80s. Despite the "economy" (read: stock market and shareholder value extraction) adding on a few zeros in the same time interval. It's not incomes increasing that's driving the rent increase, it's been illegal collusion via Realpage and the other rent collusion platforms

 

Edit: just to really drive the point home, the meteoric rent increases STOPPED when propublica published their initial reporting and got DOJ sniffing around in 2022. It lines up quite nicely with your rent increase timeline through 2020-2021

Ah, my bad. I thought we were having an actual discussion among grown ups using facts. I’ve only been building apartments and houses for nearly 30 years so what do I know.

 

Carry on with whatever it is you are doing I guess. I’m moving on. 

Edited by tbone_
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Posted
16 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Ah, my bad. I thought we were having an actual discussion among grown ups using facts. I’ve only been building apartments and houses for nearly 30 years so what do I know.

 

Carry on with whatever it is you are doing I guess. I’m moving on. 

My apologies for being a dick, it's just maddening to see a serious person act like the explosion of extractive and exploitative leases is simply because people have more money to give to their land lords. 

Sorry for treating you like you were posting in bad faith, though

Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

My apologies for being a dick, it's just maddening to see a serious person act like the explosion of extractive and exploitative leases is simply because people have more money to give to their land lords. 

Sorry for treating you like you were posting in bad faith, though

He's not sorry 

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Posted
10 hours ago, Captainant said:

Well they've nearly doubled over the last decade so I'm not sure if there's any blood left to suck for the landlords

1000% not true but that's par for the course with most of your posts 

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Posted
1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

1000% not true but that's par for the course with most of your posts 

Yeah I might actually be able to turn a profit on my 3 rentals if prices had doubled since we started. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

1000% not true but that's par for the course with most of your posts 

Here's a source to my claim:

https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/average-rent-by-year

2010:   $895

2015    $994

2020    $1,185

2025    $1,650

% increase: 65% over 10 years, 85% increase over 15 years. So mea culpa, it's a greater than 50% increase that's still far ahead of baseline inflation.

So if you want to nitpick my specific number but ignore the overall trend that worker wages have definitely not gone up 85% in 15 years or 65% in 10 years, that's your perogative. 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Here's a source to my claim:

https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/average-rent-by-year

2010:   $895

2015    $994

2020    $1,185

2025    $1,650

% increase: 65% over 10 years, 85% increase over 15 years. So mea culpa, it's a greater than 50% increase that's still far ahead of baseline inflation.

So if you want to nitpick my specific number but ignore the overall trend that worker wages have definitely not gone up 85% in 15 years or 65% in 10 years, that's your perogative. 

See post right above yours. 

Posted
57 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

See post right above yours. 

To be fair, quoting a single individual's statistics to refute an actual study?  Would be a running joke in any statistics class in the country.

1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

Yeah I might actually be able to turn a profit on my 3 rentals if prices had doubled since we started. 

Could you PLEASE give us info on these rentals.  It sounds as if you have been holding at least some of the properties a decade? I don't want to argue against you.  I am just curious (and personally scared) because I am thinking of writing a check, to buy out my sister to get my Father's home upon his demise.  I PM'ed you if you don't want make that info public.  Which I understand.

 

What is certain, is that Multiple things can be true. 

Builders have not seen prices rise by the same percentages as lumber futures trading rises.  Have prices risen at Lowes and Home Depot on Lumber? Absolutely! But retail responds more quickly ton inflation for a variety of reasons, than price increases for wholesale volume buying through established B2B supply chains.  

Housing and rent has increased dramatically.  Again for a variety of reasons.  IMHO mainly because corporate and private equity has entered the market in a way we have only seen previously after steep market retreats.  I was told by an agent in the Belton area that over 30% of the houses sold in Bell county in 2024, we not to individuals, but to corporate investors.  Please correct me if I am wrong here, but presently the percentage of non-homestead home purchases is as high as we have ever seen in a "normal" market?

You can lose money on rent houses or make money on rent houses.  Depends on what you paid for the property and how much rent you can get.  If you bought a rent property in the Spring of 2023?  You are likely not covering that nut.  Just like you couldn't when you bought the home.  It's also true that for many people turning a "profit" on rentals never comes.  Unless you exclude the generous, depreciation income deduction, from your bottom line.  I for instance would never buy a turn key investment property.  The longer term increase in equity in the remodel and higher rent because of the remodel.  But a lot of folks buy retail, rent retail, and thus have a lot thinner margin to make a profit. 

I will say I found @Captainant link interesting.  Looking specifically constant dollars, versus current dollars.  Since 2020 in Texas $1091 in 2020, $1503 in 2025 in current dollars. In contrast in constant dollars $1091 in 2020, vs $1183 in 2025.  I have no idea about the veracity of the site.  But I would find it extremely difficult to even remotely suggest that wages have kept pace with rising rents.

 

 

So since this is the Market rather than RE thread, which of you guys are placing big stock bets on builders this week?  How are you investing in stocks in relation to the RE market? 

I searched for "top real estate stocks", and got a yahoo link that shows and compares the RE stocks to the S&P.  Glad I chimed in on this. As I am considering taking all of my inheritance in a future rental property, than in cash and stock.  This link makes me wonder if the cash might be a better option? Anyhow interesting to look at the sectors that are kicking ass and which are not.  I was mainly looking the 6 month (current) and 5 year (historic) numbers.  Interesting stuff. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/real-estate/

Posted

I almost bought some Klarna pre-market this AM, and it is up 2-3% today.  Any thoughts on KLAR?  

I have not researched the company at all, just like it and Affirm's models and thinking if inflation does what I think it will, both might be good plays.  Affirm has had a bigger runup, that's why I was looking at Klarna.

Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Captainant said:

BTW as a follow-up for @ChickenSandwich, Lisa Cook did NOT break any rules. I wonder why else she might have been illegally fired 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/no-evidence-primary-residence-violation-by-fed-gov-lisa-cook-says-michigan-2025-09-16/

 

The article states that she did not commit tax fraud by claiming these houses as a primary residence in either state.  The article is unclear on if she paid a higher loan rate and 20% down for a typical rental property loan (which by the numbers in the article appears she did not) or was given the a lower primary home loan rate and downpayment (mortgage fraud). 

 

The quote at the bottom fails to specify if these numbers are comparing primary mortgage rates to secondary mortgage rates.

 

The home loan closing documents are all that is needed to clear this up. They will clearly state if the loan is for a primary residence, sale price, downpayment amount and interest rate. So far I’ve found nothing that shows they were entered as evidence 

Edited by ChickenSandwich
Posted
8 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

1000% not true but that's par for the course with most of your posts 

 

7 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Yeah I might actually be able to turn a profit on my 3 rentals if prices had doubled since we started. 

 

7 hours ago, Captainant said:

Here's a source to my claim:

https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/average-rent-by-year

2010:   $895

2015    $994

2020    $1,185

2025    $1,650

% increase: 65% over 10 years, 85% increase over 15 years. So mea culpa, it's a greater than 50% increase that's still far ahead of baseline inflation.

So if you want to nitpick my specific number but ignore the overall trend that worker wages have definitely not gone up 85% in 15 years or 65% in 10 years, that's your perogative. 

 

7 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

See post right above yours. 

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA

fredgraph.png?g=1MmlW&height=490

 

August 2015: 287.086

August 2025: 436.981

Increase: 52.2%.

 

for comparison's sake, cpi is up 35.8% in the same time, u.s. wages for all private is up 44.8%, owners' equity in real estate is up 165.5%.

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Posted
16 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

After reading about AI singularity, I’m more inclined to believe we are in a human bubble, like that of the 🦖

This but unironically. Read up on Elite Overproduction Theory. 

Posted
8 hours ago, horn4life said:

To be fair, quoting a single individual's statistics to refute an actual study?  Would be a running joke in any statistics class in the country.

Could you PLEASE give us info on these rentals.  It sounds as if you have been holding at least some of the properties a decade? I don't want to argue against you.  I am just curious (and personally scared) because I am thinking of writing a check, to buy out my sister to get my Father's home upon his demise.  I PM'ed you if you don't want make that info public.  Which I understand.

 

What is certain, is that Multiple things can be true. 

Builders have not seen prices rise by the same percentages as lumber futures trading rises.  Have prices risen at Lowes and Home Depot on Lumber? Absolutely! But retail responds more quickly ton inflation for a variety of reasons, than price increases for wholesale volume buying through established B2B supply chains.  

Housing and rent has increased dramatically.  Again for a variety of reasons.  IMHO mainly because corporate and private equity has entered the market in a way we have only seen previously after steep market retreats.  I was told by an agent in the Belton area that over 30% of the houses sold in Bell county in 2024, we not to individuals, but to corporate investors.  Please correct me if I am wrong here, but presently the percentage of non-homestead home purchases is as high as we have ever seen in a "normal" market?

You can lose money on rent houses or make money on rent houses.  Depends on what you paid for the property and how much rent you can get.  If you bought a rent property in the Spring of 2023?  You are likely not covering that nut.  Just like you couldn't when you bought the home.  It's also true that for many people turning a "profit" on rentals never comes.  Unless you exclude the generous, depreciation income deduction, from your bottom line.  I for instance would never buy a turn key investment property.  The longer term increase in equity in the remodel and higher rent because of the remodel.  But a lot of folks buy retail, rent retail, and thus have a lot thinner margin to make a profit. 

I will say I found @Captainant link interesting.  Looking specifically constant dollars, versus current dollars.  Since 2020 in Texas $1091 in 2020, $1503 in 2025 in current dollars. In contrast in constant dollars $1091 in 2020, vs $1183 in 2025.  I have no idea about the veracity of the site.  But I would find it extremely difficult to even remotely suggest that wages have kept pace with rising rents.

 

 

So since this is the Market rather than RE thread, which of you guys are placing big stock bets on builders this week?  How are you investing in stocks in relation to the RE market? 

I searched for "top real estate stocks", and got a yahoo link that shows and compares the RE stocks to the S&P.  Glad I chimed in on this. As I am considering taking all of my inheritance in a future rental property, than in cash and stock.  This link makes me wonder if the cash might be a better option? Anyhow interesting to look at the sectors that are kicking ass and which are not.  I was mainly looking the 6 month (current) and 5 year (historic) numbers.  Interesting stuff. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/real-estate/

I certainly wouldn’t want to draw conclusions from a datapoint of 3. Rent prices can swing a lot even within a state, and if you’re just doing trends based on number of sales and price, the the bigger cities are going to skew averages that your every day landlord doesn’t see as reality. 
 

We bought our first 2 in 2018 and third in 2019. Our planned forth in 2021 but instead we live there now because we enjoyed the atmosphere (rural, woods, etc). We’ve taken some very dilapidated bordering on unlivable houses and done a lot of the repairs ourselves. I enjoy doing it, but it becomes a lot when you have an actual job and a family.  “I’m going to be done in 6 months” turns in to 2 years. 
 

We started as an alternative to trying to fund our retirement only by saving in stocks because neither of us wants to care / learn about the market. Goal was to have income producing houses in retirement. Taxes and insurance have gone nuts (and I’ve never had an insurance claim). We’re not profiting. My hope is that value  outpaces inflation plus our losses, but I’m terrified I’ll look back in 20 years and have a lot of regrets. 
 

We did STR (still doing one that way). I wouldn’t wish STR on my worst enemy. 
 

I hate this new iPhone update. 
 

Good bye and good luck. 
 

 

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