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Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls


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Standish on Micah Hudson and Drelon Miller

— I spoke with sources close to elite wideouts Micah Hudson and Drelon Miller in the 2024 cycle to see how the news of Brennan Marion leaving Austin would impact their recruitment.

A source in Hudson’s camp was pretty adamant that the move wouldn’t change anything with the five-star. In fact, the source mentioned that Marion was the Texas staffer that the Lake Belton product spoke to third most. Steve Sarkisian was No. 1 on that list and there is a good chance Hudson is in Austin for Junior Day on January 21st.

— I didn’t get the sense that Marion leaving made a big impact with Miller, however I think it’s safe to say that Texas has some room to make up with the Silsbee standout.

While the Horns have understandably been focused on closing out the 2023 cycle, other schools have pivoted to a hard press for Miller. The most notable school making a move right now would be the Georgia Bulldogs, with Kirby Smart personally recruiting Miller.

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6 hours ago, goathumper said:

 

1. This is the best EDGE class in state in years. Legit at least six guys who are takes at the position. That almost never happens in the state of Texas

2. Uini, Cruz, and Casey Poe and the rest is meh in state. Flood will get his guys though, not worried about that 

3. DT in state also always sucks. That's why we got Bo Davis and Terry Joseph to recruit Louisiana and the deep south. Choice will be helpful in Florida 

4. WR and DB is very very good this year. Much better than last year, especially at WR 

5. Top 15ish? WTF are you talking about? Sark just stacked two top 3 classes together. Even the transition class was ranked 15th. A blind monkey can recruit a top 10 class at Texas. As long as we win on the field, this class will be top 5.

1) You should post the 6 edge guys that are all takes.

2) The staff, unless they've found someone new in the past few days, was high on Cruz and not much else in-state. "His guys" are giant guys with quick feet and merit high 4 star or better rankings - like Banks and Campbell. Giant guys without elite skills or in need of a ton of development is what Texas just signed, but aren't classically "his guys". Another class consisting largely of those kinds of players isn't optimal, so here's hoping he lands Cruz and the NJ guy, at the least.

3) DT doesn't always suck in-state, but this is a particularly bad year.

4) This take is fantasy on the DB end. It would be a contribution to this thread if you elaborated more on why you see things this way for 2024 versus 2023. 

5) If Texas goes 7-5/6-6, they will not close on the big in-state talent or be able to cherry-pick OOS in a way that unlocks a top 5 class. I don't know if 8-4 is enough either. The story needs to show an evolution in the program under Sarkisian. They've been selling that, and in 2023, they need to deliver. If they do deliver, sure, top 5 makes sense. Otherwise, it won't be pretty. And yeah, I know what it takes to finish at varying levels of the rankings for UT. Thanks for the admonition otherwise, nonetheless. 

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18 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

1) You should post the 6 edge guys that are all takes.

2) The staff, unless they've found someone new in the past few days, was high on Cruz and not much else in-state. "His guys" are giant guys with quick feet and merit high 4 star or better rankings - like Banks and Campbell. Giant guys without elite skills or in need of a ton of development is what Texas just signed, but aren't classically "his guys". Another class consisting largely of those kinds of players isn't optimal, so here's hoping he lands Cruz and the NJ guy, at the least.

3) DT doesn't always suck in-state, but this is a particularly bad year.

4) This take is fantasy on the DB end. It would be a contribution to this thread if you elaborated more on why you see things this way for 2024 versus 2023. 

5) If Texas goes 7-5/6-6, they will not close on the big in-state talent or be able to cherry-pick OOS in a way that unlocks a top 5 class. I don't know if 8-4 is enough either. The story needs to show an evolution in the program under Sarkisian. They've been selling that, and in 2023, they need to deliver. If they do deliver, sure, top 5 makes sense. Otherwise, it won't be pretty. And yeah, I know what it takes to finish at varying levels of the rankings for UT. Thanks for the admonition otherwise, nonetheless. 

I’m just going to post this, so it’s easy for you to find whenever he inevitably replies.

05D4C566-6F8F-4371-8A2D-DB1323811B50.gif

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On 1/8/2023 at 4:18 AM, closetojumping said:

We’re going to have an entire recruiting cycle with the thread title equivalent of having corn flakes for breakfast. That is a bad omen. I bet Reese Bennett is that milquetoast motherfucker’s actual real name. 

This thread title is clean, like our uniforms should be:

Earl Campbell Signed Texas Longhorns 8x10 White Jersey Photo- JSA W Auth  *Black | eBay

Other thread titles done by those needing attention and with no appreciation for tradition:

15 college football uniforms that are total fashion disasters (Photos) -  Page 2

 

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2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

1) You should post the 6 edge guys that are all takes.

2) The staff, unless they've found someone new in the past few days, was high on Cruz and not much else in-state. "His guys" are giant guys with quick feet and merit high 4 star or better rankings - like Banks and Campbell. Giant guys without elite skills or in need of a ton of development is what Texas just signed, but aren't classically "his guys". Another class consisting largely of those kinds of players isn't optimal, so here's hoping he lands Cruz and the NJ guy, at the least.

3) DT doesn't always suck in-state, but this is a particularly bad year.

4) This take is fantasy on the DB end. It would be a contribution to this thread if you elaborated more on why you see things this way for 2024 versus 2023. 

5) If Texas goes 7-5/6-6, they will not close on the big in-state talent or be able to cherry-pick OOS in a way that unlocks a top 5 class. I don't know if 8-4 is enough either. The story needs to show an evolution in the program under Sarkisian. They've been selling that, and in 2023, they need to deliver. If they do deliver, sure, top 5 makes sense. Otherwise, it won't be pretty. And yeah, I know what it takes to finish at varying levels of the rankings for UT. Thanks for the admonition otherwise, nonetheless. 

 

Gonna post another response to this later but yeah.... if Texas doesnt win 9 games next year, let alone 7/6, most of the fanbase will want Sark fired forget about recruits. 

If Texas has a shit season, it doesnt matter if there were 20 5 stars in state, none of them would be coming here to play for a lame duck coach

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1 hour ago, goathumper said:

5. This is my real problem with your original post. You posted dooming and made it sound like because the in-state class is down at certain positions it will be hard for us to have a top 10 class. That's not really the case it will be hard for us to have a top 10 class if Sark sucks.. but if Sark suck this year he is GONE. The rest of it, recruiting, portals whatever is a wash. Sark doesnt win at least 8, (imo 9) games next year the Steve Sarkisian era is essentially over at Texas

the in state class being down compared to historical years lowers the ceiling potentially to a huge level. Here are the last 5 years with % of enrollees from Texas:

image.png.ce14f760631656e48b4b173e9bca9e3a.png

when 60+% of your class is from Texas, and it is a down year in Texas, you are going to have a less good class almost no matter what happens. Obviously, the answer to this is to cherry pick players from OOS.

...and if you are not good (win 6-7-8 games) it hurts you twice as much because you will lose out in both the top in state guys - which impact you more than normal because of the lack of depth in the class - and you can't cherry pick OOS.

he literally said:

Quote

The story needs to show an evolution in the program under Sarkisian. They've been selling that, and in 2023, they need to deliver. If they do deliver, sure, top 5 makes sense. Otherwise, it won't be pretty.

having 5 total posts, coming in here guns blazing and preaching is not a strong start.

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2 hours ago, goathumper said:

1. Simmons, Zina, Brinkley, C. Mitchell, Edward Smith, Loghan Thomas, Brock Jackson. That's seven and imo Simmons/Zina/Brinkley/Thomas can play pretty much anywhere. That's pretty good.  

2. I think we are largely saying the same thing on the OL in state class. There isnt a lot here and even less than 2023, which I thought was a meh class behind the top 3/4 guys. But Flood is a great OL coach and has been recruiting the position nationally for a while. I'm not worried about him getting some guys who are up to snuff 

3. Yeah it pretty much does. DT and LB are the worst position group year in year out. At least TXHSFB produces athletes who can play LB but just dont play the position in HS 

2023- 2 top 200 consensus DTs,

2022- 3,

2021- 3.

So in any given year you generally get 3-4 guys in state who are DT takes. This past year it was Bowens, Hicks and Deal (who is best as a guard and a JAG as a DT). We passed on Green and imo should've prioritized Etta. This cycle Smith, Evans, and maybe January are all good enough to be takes. So yeah a little worse than usual but Bo Davis, Choice, Joseph eta are already recruiting the deep south for big bodies anyway 

4. Currently on ON3 there are 5 TXHSFB DBs ranked in the top 53....11 in the top 200. DB is really strong this year (like it is every year in TX to be fair). And I'm not even counting a few athletes who have a good chance to play DB instead of WR in college who are also pretty good.

The top 4/5 WRs this year have an argument for a higher ceiling than any WR in the 2023 cllass. Without a doubt Hudson, Miller and Kearney do. Guys like Baker, Weston, Dubose and Lil Ezukuma behind them are also all really exciting, athletic and have good length which we need more of in the room

5. This is my real problem with your original post. You posted dooming and made it sound like because the in-state class is down at certain positions it will be hard for us to have a top 10 class. That's not really the case it will be hard for us to have a top 10 class if Sark sucks.. but if Sark suck this year he is GONE. The rest of it, recruiting, portals whatever is a wash. Sark doesnt win at least 8, (imo 9) games next year the Steve Sarkisian era is essentially over at Texas

For 1, you said there were 6 guys in-state that were all takes, and now you've upped it to 7. FWIW, there are multiple guys on your list that are not takes for Texas. You're overly bullish on edge as far as difference makers go. At least at this point.

For 2, okay. You're more flippant with the OL situation than I am, but my original point that it is a down year in 2024 for difference maker OLs in Texas stands unchanged.

On 3, for as bad as everyone always says the state is at producing LBs, it's seemed fine lately. But sure, LB and DT lag the other spots typically, which is a style of play issue from peewee upward, frankly. January is currently a take. He's been offered and they're going to take his commit if he goes for it on JR Day. In any event, the original point that DT is even more shit than normal also stands unchanged. 

On 4, I don't see DB as any different than any other year by your own measures. It's not a year that has folks ecstatic. At WR, like edge, it should be fun to see how your views hold up. Credit for offering them up, in any event. 

On 5, I don't post doom and gloom. I post how I see it, usually with bookend possibilities. I did that, clearly to most, with what I wrote. The actual math theory attached to the position is unassailable. If the numbers are weaker, the probability of landing an equal or better class compared to prior periods, is lower barring improved performance or other factors beyond the program's control (other programs having problems, conference change being delayed, a neighbor winning a title, etc.). I didn't predict a 15-ish finish. I stated what needed to happen for the trajectory of the roster to continue in ascent, and what would happen if that didn't occur. You're welcome to predict your own future, but you don't get to edit mine on the fly based on your own emotional projections and inability to see what my actual position simply is. 

It's early. Every year, reviewing our individual and collective outlook from that same period prior is pretty amusing. Humans are not good at predicting the future and predicting shit in recruiting is even more absurd. There are a bunch of guys that we all think will be relevant on SD1 to UT and they'll wind up signing at SMU and UH and Arizona. A bunch of guys not discussed now will be a part of the class, especially if things go really well or really poorly. Guys emerge and others fade away. I have no convictions about my views versus yours as a result. 

That all considered, the distinctly presented point of view from your end has added value to the thread as a newcomer.

 

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9 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

For 1, you said there were 6 guys in-state that were all takes, and now you've upped it to 7. FWIW, there are multiple guys on your list that are not takes for Texas. You're overly bullish on edge as far as difference makers go. At least at this point.

For 2, okay. You're more flippant with the OL situation than I am, but my original point that it is a down year in 2024 for difference maker OLs in Texas stands unchanged.

On 3, for as bad as everyone always says the state is at producing LBs, it's seemed fine lately. But sure, LB and DT lag the other spots typically, which is a style of play issue from peewee upward, frankly. January is currently a take. He's been offered and they're going to take his commit if he goes for it on JR Day. In any event, the original point that DT is even more shit than normal also stands unchanged. 

On 4, I don't see DB as any different than any other year by your own measures. It's not a year that has folks ecstatic. At WR, like edge, it should be fun to see how your views hold up. Credit for offering them up, in any event. 

On 5, I don't post doom and gloom. I post how I see it, usually with bookend possibilities. I did that, clearly to most, with what I wrote. The actual math theory attached to the position is unassailable. If the numbers are weaker, the probability of landing an equal or better class compared to prior periods, is lower barring improved performance or other factors beyond the program's control (other programs having problems, conference change being delayed, a neighbor winning a title, etc.). I didn't predict a 15-ish finish. I stated what needed to happen for the trajectory of the roster to continue in ascent, and what would happen if that didn't occur. You're welcome to predict your own future, but you don't get to edit mine on the fly based on your own emotional projections and inability to see what my actual position simply is. 

It's early. Every year, reviewing our individual and collective outlook from that same period prior is pretty amusing. Humans are not good at predicting the future and predicting shit in recruiting is even more absurd. There are a bunch of guys that we all think will be relevant on SD1 to UT and they'll wind up signing at SMU and UH and Arizona. A bunch of guys not discussed now will be a part of the class, especially if things go really well or really poorly. Guys emerge and others fade away. I have no convictions about my views versus yours as a result. 

That all considered, the distinctly presented point of view from your end has added value to the thread as a newcomer.

 

Appreciate the response and hope I end up being right about the in state EDGE and WR list of prospects providing a lot of real difference makers. I get with all of this there is a huge range of outcomes we cant even consider/predict this early on. The board in September will look comically different from now 

Good to hear the news on January. Watching him play baseball is hilarious 

I think it is interesting and not at all a coincidence that from the graphic BE posted, the 2023 and 2019 classes are both the lowest in terms of OOS % but also 2 of the higher classes in terms of composite rankings and avg recruit ranking. It's great news Sark and this staff are built to recruit OOS

 

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10 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I almost got negged off the board and didn't give one fuck. It sorted itself out, but there were guys in that forum who seem like they're pissed at me to this day over the original nuclear bombing of the environment. How could I call out sweet aunt Jenny, the lying hypocrite, like that?!? Also, Willie Lyles created a handle and threatened to fight me through the Internet. 

Anywho, what, uh, were we talking about?

this begs the question - could you beat Willie Lyles in a 40 yard dash?

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5 minutes ago, NoName said:

this begs the question - could you beat Willie Lyles in a 40 yard dash?

Yes, I can say that with certainty. I taunted him once at Spec's in Midtown and felt like, had he come after me, I was comfortable either trying to whip his ass or outrunning him depending upon fight or flight kicking in. He was a tub of goo.

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7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Yes, I can say that with certainty. I taunted him once at Spec's in Midtown and felt like, had he come after me, I was comfortable either trying to whip his ass or outrunning him depending upon fight or flight kicking in. He was a tub of goo.

This man looks fit and focused, I have no idea what you're saying

will-lyles-pete-carrolljpg-077994b63fffc

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On 1/6/2023 at 12:44 PM, closetojumping said:

This class runs the risk of being a top 15-ish class unless they close really well and/or win big on the field. 

 

5 hours ago, goathumper said:

5. This is my real problem with your original post. You posted dooming and made it sound like because the in-state class is down at certain positions it will be hard for us to have a top 10 class. That's not really the case it will be hard for us to have a top 10 class if Sark sucks.. but if Sark suck this year he is GONE. The rest of it, recruiting, portals whatever is a wash. Sark doesnt win at least 8, (imo 9) games next year the Steve Sarkisian era is essentially over at Texas

#1 overall is still a "top 15-ish class" . I don't know what all the kerfuffle is about.

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On 1/7/2023 at 12:13 PM, cafe society said:

It's surprising to me that we are so far behind so early in 2024 recruiting.  Pretty deflating update.

We aren't behind. CTJ said last year that this class would be trying to catch up to aggy and we were behind then, too. We'll finish fine like always in the top 5. It's so early in the cycle that not a single person on this board knows who the staff is even targeting other than the Colin Simmons' of the world,  

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1 hour ago, Reese Bennett said:

Looks gangly and a little knock-kneed in his highlights, but he can throw. Will definitely need time to fill out and get physically comfortable.

https://www.hudl.com/profile/13618556/Trey-Owens

I trust Milwee.

He look like a giraffe moving in the pocket but seems like he has a good arm 

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18 minutes ago, thepop said:

Nice recruiting win over Stephen F Austin for Owens.

Because surely we can attract the cream of the crop to come ride the bench for 2 years behind Arch. 2024 QB was never going to flashy. This is the type of take that does a lot of good things right, but still has things they need to work on, and is comfortable riding the pine until Arch is gone.

Edited by BornAndRaised
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26 minutes ago, BornAndRaised said:

Because surely we can attract the cream of the crop to come ride the bench for 2 years behind Arch. 2024 QB was never going to flashy. This is the type of take that does a lot of good things right, but still has things they need to work on, and is comfortable riding the pine until Arch is gone.

image.thumb.jpeg.6db8a4f5ee9abe2972b6ba6fbd0f2f7c.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, Sock Monkey said:

I’m guessing Trey Owens will at least be a solid 4 star by the time it’s all said and done. He’ll be a good developmental prospect for sure.

current industry comparison:

image.png.1f3e706ee0300b47c3abc0aa1f40f742.png

does anyone know how on3 handles players who don't have a position?

it's probably just math that works out but his state ranking of 88 obviously isn't an average of 69 + 81. BUT if you give him 81 from on3, 69 from 247, 100 from ESPN, 100 from Rivals that average comes out to 87.5 = 88.

looks like they use just a straight average on who has position rankings = 27 from on3 + 36 from 247 = 31.5 average = 32

then the national ranking is based on whatever his star ranking/score is like how 247 composite does it i assume.

 

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7 hours ago, BornAndRaised said:

Because surely we can attract the cream of the crop to come ride the bench for 2 years behind Arch. 2024 QB was never going to flashy. This is the type of take that does a lot of good things right, but still has things they need to work on, and is comfortable riding the pine until Arch is gone.

You could recruit a 5 star qb in 2024 and then watch them transfer after a year if they immediately didn't beat out Arch.

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13 hours ago, Sir Ulrich said:

On the IT livestream Bobby and Gerry got a text that we're getting good news tomorrow specifically. 

i thought that was good portal news. I like Owens and would be happy about a commitment, but I was counting on big portal news. 

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12 hours ago, Reese Bennett said:

Looks gangly and a little knock-kneed in his highlights, but he can throw. Will definitely need time to fill out and get physically comfortable.

https://www.hudl.com/profile/13618556/Trey-Owens

I trust Milwee.

He has some nice touch on his throws. A really good developmental guy that I could see being a player in 3 or 4 years. 

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