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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

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On 7/14/2023 at 1:11 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Every time I hired a young engineer, especially new grads, I'd tell them "don't trust HR.  They aren't your friend.  They don't work on your behalf, they work on the board's behalf.  You're completely fungible in their eyes."

Combine that with their rigid "resume must contain these keywords" mentality, and my general view of them was basically

image.jpeg.2376730c340ac1b9e0422dc661396c0b.jpeg

Thanks for this JJ. We have an "in" for CHIEF Jr. at Lockheed. He has been working on his resume for over a week to get those "key words" in with the help of his deceased mentor's supervisor. Completely restructured the order of his cover letter and made other changes probably a dozen times. He has been told which departments are short of engineers with his specific skillset, and has been told to point his arrow at those targets specifically with the redesigned resume/cover letter, or he won't see the light of day. His contact loathes the HR department. Looks like he isn't the only one.

CHIEF

 

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10 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

Thanks for this JJ. We have an "in" for CHIEF Jr. at Lockheed. He has been working on his resume for over a week to get those "key words" in with the help of his deceased mentor's supervisor. Completely restructured the order of his cover letter and made other changes probably a dozen times. He has been told which departments are short of engineers with his specific skillset, and has been told to point his arrow at those targets specifically with the redesigned resume/cover letter, or he won't see the light of day. His contact loathes the HR department. Looks like he isn't the only one.

I bet I ended up meeting a half dozen or more superstars who had applied for a role over the years yet their resume never crossed my desk.  It was infuriating.  I'd ask why they didn't interview, and their answer was that they couldn't get an interview.  

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13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I bet I ended up meeting a half dozen or more superstars who had applied for a role over the years yet their resume never crossed my desk.  It was infuriating.  I'd ask why they didn't interview, and their answer was that they couldn't get an interview.  

HR Departments generally screw up everything they touch, IMHO.

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As a hiring manager, I always told my assigned HR recruiter to pass me every single resume. I don't want them weeding out anyone.  I found out the hard way when a half dozen good candidates were never passed on to me even though their resumes clearly showed they had the exact experience I was looking for.

 

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CHIEF Jr. is a wizard at GD&T, this contact knows this. Apparently Lockheed has a real shortage in that department, but without key words and phrases in other areas of his resume/cover letter, he wouldn't even get an interview.

CHIEF

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1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

As a hiring manager, I always told my assigned HR recruiter to pass me every single resume. I don't want them weeding out anyone.  I found out the hard way when a half dozen good candidates were never passed on to me even though their resumes clearly showed they had the exact experience I was looking for.

 

The automated websites weed out way too many good candidates because of some stupid criteria. 

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Anyone familiar with David Rosenberg,  former Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch ?  Prophet of Doom  ?

Lengthy article,  but worth the read.   Excerpts:

 

 

People are trying to fit the macro narrative into what’s been happening in the stock market. The stock market doesn’t always tell you what’s happening with the economy. It might be telling you about sentiment and market positioning and technicals, but it’s the same stock market that was telling you in October 2007 that we were going to have unbridled growth. The recession started two months later.

Right now the stock market has become a get-rich-quick scheme like it was during the meme-stock mania two years ago. The stock market today is not a vehicle to raise capital. Companies buy back stock to make their shareholders wealthy. The stock market is operating on momentum and fund flows and sentiment and technicals. Investors now are bowing down to the holy grail of price momentum.

To suggest to me that the stock market is telling us something about the economy is just laughable. Is anybody that foolish or ignorant of history to suggest that we’re in a resting spot — that we’ll still be talking about a soft landing this time next year?

The question is will we stay in the soft landing? Of course not. This is the most credit-driven economy in history. It’s been completely reliant on low interest rates for so long, sucking at the teat of the central-bank balance sheet. The Fed started a tightening policy in March 2022. There’s a lag. People who are saying this is a soft landing and so there’s no recession — those will be the people wiping egg off their face.

Companies have been loath to lay off people out of fear that in the next cycle they won’t be able to find them again. That was one of the scars from COVID and the lockdown, and the ridiculous way the government dealt with the situation, which was to pay people more money to be unemployed and then extending those jobless benefits well into the recovery.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-chance-were-having-a-soft-landing-stock-market-strategist-david-rosenberg-gives-powells-fed-no-credit-and-no-mercy-52ea2ed6

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5 hours ago, torre said:

Anyone familiar with David Rosenberg,  former Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch ?  Prophet of Doom  ?

Lengthy article,  but worth the read.   Excerpts:

 

 

People are trying to fit the macro narrative into what’s been happening in the stock market. The stock market doesn’t always tell you what’s happening with the economy. It might be telling you about sentiment and market positioning and technicals, but it’s the same stock market that was telling you in October 2007 that we were going to have unbridled growth. The recession started two months later.

Right now the stock market has become a get-rich-quick scheme like it was during the meme-stock mania two years ago. The stock market today is not a vehicle to raise capital. Companies buy back stock to make their shareholders wealthy. The stock market is operating on momentum and fund flows and sentiment and technicals. Investors now are bowing down to the holy grail of price momentum.

To suggest to me that the stock market is telling us something about the economy is just laughable. Is anybody that foolish or ignorant of history to suggest that we’re in a resting spot — that we’ll still be talking about a soft landing this time next year?

The question is will we stay in the soft landing? Of course not. This is the most credit-driven economy in history. It’s been completely reliant on low interest rates for so long, sucking at the teat of the central-bank balance sheet. The Fed started a tightening policy in March 2022. There’s a lag. People who are saying this is a soft landing and so there’s no recession — those will be the people wiping egg off their face.

Companies have been loath to lay off people out of fear that in the next cycle they won’t be able to find them again. That was one of the scars from COVID and the lockdown, and the ridiculous way the government dealt with the situation, which was to pay people more money to be unemployed and then extending those jobless benefits well into the recovery.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-chance-were-having-a-soft-landing-stock-market-strategist-david-rosenberg-gives-powells-fed-no-credit-and-no-mercy-52ea2ed6

The first 3 paragraphs is the author smelling his own farts.  The 4th paragraph might be right, but it might be wrong.  The 5th paragraph shows the author is pretty ignorant of demographics and immigration trends.

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On 7/14/2023 at 9:12 AM, Storm the Field said:

Best consumer sentiment reading in almost 2 years. Significant improvements in both "current conditions" and "future expectations", though near-term inflation expectations increased a bit.

 

Moar.

Consumer Confidence hits its highest level since July 2021 in the latest Conference Board survey. 

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"Current Situation" (160) and "Future Expectations" (88) both improved significantly.

Moreover, the % of respondents who agreed that "jobs are hard to come by" dropped back below 10%, nearing an all-time low.

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1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Does this mean the recession's not coming?

It means the Fed will continue to use one of the limited number of options that they have to try to slow inflation - J Pow gonna continue to have .25% increases every other meeting. They can't get employment numbers where the Fed thinks they need to be to tame the beast; so beating will continue until moral improves.

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4 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Yet still raised rates.

 

makes sense 

Fuck it let’s go. Kill the zombie companies, force productive investment, disconnect the fed from the stock market, and send our congress people a wake up call in the form of trillion dollar annual debt servicing costs

Federal Reserve Inflation GIF by GIPHY News

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Trimmed mean PCE inflation at 4.24% annualized for June from the Dallas Fed.  Trimmed = removing the most extreme increases and decreases—similar to removing outliers as inflation rolls through different sectors.

The delayed effect of interest rate increases are beginning to rattle through the economy. The tricky part is determining when to pause or lower rates. Hold the rate too high for too long and the economy stalls.

105C49CB-4E1C-42AD-849C-AD793E215696.thumb.png.c6d56b50f691bc03bfb50e89cf30ad7d.png

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1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Yes, lazy and exploitative profiteering is "boo". Unless you think it's good for consumers to be wrung out for the sake of private shareholders?

Well, Coca Cola is not milk, eggs, or bread.  No one is starving because their Cokes went up 20%.  Im fine with the public shareholders doing better, and them hunting the point where a Dr Cola or whatever replaces Coke for the avg consumer.  

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9 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

The delayed effect of interest rate increases are beginning to rattle through the economy. The tricky part is determining when to pause or lower rates. Hold the rate too high for too long and the economy stalls.

Oh maybe we should stay in a historically normal range and shouldn't go back to a long term policy of punishing savers to deliberately inflate assets with debt until we face deflationary pressure.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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2 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Well, Coca Cola is not milk, eggs, or bread.  No one is starving because their Cokes went up 20%.  Im fine with the public shareholders doing better, and them hunting the point where a Dr Cola or whatever replaces Coke for the avg consumer.  

You're attempting your aggy slight of hand trick to shift the goalposts to be about coke prices when all consumer food prices have gone up significantly and completely decoupled from the cost basis to produce and deliver it to consumers. Yes costs have gone up, but firms are uniformly using it as justification for their own margin boosting above and beyond their cost basis. Every firm everywhere led by a braindead and unqualified MBA is doing that because they all suck the ghost of jack welch's dick

Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

QE was (and will be) a clusterfuck

The real clusterfuck was a trillion dollar corporate tax cut and then another trillion dollars of free corporate loans. Funny how those things were supposed to give them the headroom to retain staff and not lay people off, but instead there were record corporate stock buybacks and dividends and then still had massive sweeping layoffs anyways

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4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Now do payroll taxes.

They're half paid by the employee, so why are you patting corporate entities on the back for paying them? I'm sorry, I don't watch enough fox business to know your talking points of what you're referencing 

Edited by Captainant
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15 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Now do payroll taxes.

 

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Not a talking point. I run a company and don't have the luxury of jerking my dick to made up problems or assertions of people who get their information from Talking Heads and Social Media Propagandists. 

You're not really giving me much to go on here to talk with you about lol. What about payroll taxes? That they exist and it's some massive cosmic injustice to your margins that you split taxes with your employees and can't just push them 100% onto them?

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You talk out of your ass about things you don't know about because you've seen something on Twitter. You cherry pick certain things without understanding the costs on a business and seem to have zero understanding of how companies deal with costs/prices.

I have neither the time nor the crayons to explain it to you. 

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Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

You talk out of your ass about things you don't know about because you've seen something on Twitter. You cherry pick certain things without understanding the costs on a business and seem to have zero understanding of how companies deal with costs/prices.

I have neither the time nor the crayons to explain it to you. 

100k posts on fucking surly dude I think you have the time.

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49 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

The naivete of certain posters never ceases to amaze me.

Coca Cola's blockbuster $2.5B net profit last quarter was....

* a drop of $600M from the prior quarter.

* the exact average net profit going back 8 quarters.

* the exact average gross margins going back 8 quarters (implying same unit pricing, relative to cost)

in fact the YoY number only impressive because Q2'22 was an anomaly when they took an unusually large write-off of a poor investment.

i have a dream that one day the commies of this nation will rise up and learn how to read a financial statement

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9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Coca Cola's blockbuster $2.5B net profit last quarter was....

* a drop of $600M from the prior quarter.

* the exact average net profit going back 8 quarters.

* the exact average gross margins going back 8 quarters (implying same unit pricing, relative to cost)

in fact the YoY number only impressive because Q2'22 was an anomaly when they took an unusually large write-off of a poor investment.

i have a dream that one day the commies of this nation will rise up and learn how to read a financial statement

Maybe someone will cover it on a TikTok.   But muh gouging!!!

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it is outrageous that a company has control over its own treasury.

especially if that company is owned collectively by its shareholders where major capital allocations decisions are made jointly by elected officers.  this representative democracy must be abolished. 

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