2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[jimmyjazz 45055]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

my goodness you are just a veritable cornucopia of money saving ideas.  deepest appreciation for sharing your frugality.

I'm here to help all my friends who struggle to make ends meet, especially with avocados being so expensive.

 

Quote

Let me guess, you cut your children's hair at home?

I don't, but our older daughter (who is a cosmetologist) has been known to get out the old clippers every now and again for the boys.  Would you like her card?  She can do your eyelashes, too.

[Incredulity 11141]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

She can do your eyelashes, too.

There you go giving away the secret to your fresh new look.

The heart on this guy.  amazing.

[bernorange 8336]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/companies-from-mcdonalds-to-3m-warn-inflation-is-squeezing-consumers.html

 

[B00M 5999]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't, but our older daughter (who is a cosmetologist) has been known to get out the old clippers every now and again for the boys.  Would you like her card?  She can do your eyelashes, too.

Does she style pubes? 

[jimmyjazz 45055]

23 minutes ago, B00M said:

Does she style pubes? 

That would be a negative.  Well, maybe her own.  I'm not asking.

[lucious leftfoot 126]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

Does she style pubes? 

Merkins

 

In times past, prices would rise and prices would fall. It’s in the modern world that they only go up. Interesting to think of the implications. 

[lucious leftfoot 126]

Classic. 

 

[lucious leftfoot 126]

Ooh now let’s throw a Farm Bill log on the fire. 
 

Before anyone complains this will pass with support from both sides™️

[lucious leftfoot 126]

We’re back baby

 

[lucious leftfoot 126]

In this house, we celebrate Jobsgiving, even when it’s not as much as it expected. 
 

 

 

And even when it looks like the data may be consistently fudged. 
 

 

[B00M 5999]

On 5/1/2024 at 8:06 AM, lucious leftfoot said:

We’re back baby

 

That official announcement 

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2315#:~:text=Through July 2024%2C Treasury plans,to temporary settlement process limitations.

[TxTower 648]

[fattyflattie 4631]

On 5/3/2024 at 2:40 PM, lucious leftfoot said:

In this house, we celebrate Jobsgiving, even when it’s not as much as it expected. 
 

 

 

And even when it looks like the data may be consistently fudged. 
 

 

Don’t worry, about to have a couple of back to back, absolutely tremendous quarters. 

[Storm the Field 5239]

[Wally Fairway 5465]

35 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Wrong meme - should be the hard landing, because the Fed missed the airport to bring it in softly & now they are flying around and will slam it right into a slamming us all right into a recession. WIll the Fed ever figure out that driving, while looking in the rearview mirror means you should ease up sooner than you think. 
Dumbest thing ever was to keep stimulating as long as they did. 
Oh well, we need some sort of a reset anyway. 

[TxTower 648]

Dumbest thing ever was to keep stimulating as long as they did. 

Agreed, although to be fair, there was a shit ton of fiscal stimulus applied as well. Add the flame accelerant and “Wala” 9% “transitory” inflation.
Congress can’t help themselves but the Fed should’ve known better.

[lucious leftfoot 126]

This clip is from a new documentary pumping MMT called Finding the Money. I find MMT to be an absurd premise on its face, but the way this top economic advisor fumbles over basics is pretty incredible.

 

 

 

[StassneyHorn 6407]

lol in this house we recognize a Goldilocks job report from Friday 

[washparkhorn 9894]

On 5/8/2024 at 3:20 PM, lucious leftfoot said:

This clip is from a new documentary pumping MMT called Finding the Money. I find MMT to be an absurd premise on its face, but the way this top economic advisor fumbles over basics is pretty incredible.

The United States, as the issuer of its own fiat currency, (the U.S. dollar, which is not pegged to any commodity or other currency), "borrows" money by issuing interest-bearing securities like U.S. Treasury bonds, notes, and bills, even though it can create money to finance its spending without borrowing. 

The question is why we borrow when we can just create USD’s. To answer that question requires one to understand who benefits from the choice to borrow. For the entrenched dependent on the spice that flows from the USG’s choice to borrow, any threat the system that supplies their risk-free spice stream is ridiculed as heretical. 

MMT is merely a lens—not policy, strategy or ideology. MMT recognizes excess USD creation will cause inflation if there is insufficient supply of goods and services for those dollars. Taxes, payable in USD’s, can drain off excess dollars. Adequate supply of goods and services for the dollar will also temper inflation.

MMT is more accounting than economic theory. It is not new—its roots are in mercantilism. It describes the reality of monetary conditions once the Bretton Woods system was abandoned in 1971. 

[washparkhorn 9894]

Edit—”chartalism” not “mercantilism”

[B00M 5999]

Unique take 

 

[UTPhil2006 3753]

20 minutes ago, B00M said:

Unique take 

 

Unique is a word for it. 

[Snake Diggity 4545]

30 minutes ago, B00M said:

Unique take 

 

 

9 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Unique is a word for it. 

I like Zeihan just for the perspective, although I rarely agree with him 100%.  Everything is demographics with him.  Most everyday Joe’s don’t understand how much demographics affect their lives, so what Zeihan preaches is good for those people to hear, but as in this case, he’s overstating its importance relative to other factors.  For one thing, it wouldn’t be that long before the Fed has their mandate changed to raise the inflation threshold from say 2% to 4%.  But also, the Fed would prioritize addressing unemployment over inflation if that became the choice.

[Parliament 13979]

He seems to be sniffing his own farts more and more these days, but I agree with the first half.

[TxTower 648]

He seems to be sniffing his own farts more and more these days, but I agree with the first half.

Yep but I also agree with his basic assertion that people are overlooking the growing probability that “higher for longer” may morph into “the new normal”.

[BabaYaga 15116]

16 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

For the entrenched dependent on the spice that flows

[CHIEF 5035]

4 hours ago, TxTower said:

Yep but I also agree with his basic assertion that people are overlooking the growing probability that “higher for longer” may morph into “the new normal”.

The last house we financed in Cedar Park our rate was 6% and that was considered a killer deal in 2003. It was a $163k new tract home in Deer Creek. That house would cost almost $400k to build today. Lower interest loans allowed construction suppliers to go nuts, on pricing, with the demand. I'm not sure we are gonna see concrete, lumber, plumbing, and electrical supply prices revert to pricing that it once was with the higher interest rates, but that is going to be what is needed for starter homes to become affordable again.

CHIEF

Edited May 10 by CHIEF

[washparkhorn 9894]

On 5/10/2024 at 2:23 PM, BabaYaga said:

Orthodox economics is a political ideology costumed in mathematical nonsense to rationalize the anarchy of entrenched wealth. Always has been; and always will be.

Jevons and Walras used pseudo mathematics to hide their affiliation to wealth and the political class. EK Hunt’s observed “externalities” are pervasive (the rule, not the exception) and thus render orthodox economics entirely unreliable outside the classroom. Reliance on orthodox economic theory creates “snowballing inefficiency” and “warped human development.” We live in that economic reality today.

Thus the US pays interest on money we borrow, when we have no need to borrow as an issuer of our own fiat currency not pegged to any other currency or commodity. Those who profit from this inefficiency will not give it up without a fight. 

[lucious leftfoot 126]

On 5/10/2024 at 8:15 AM, B00M said:

Unique take 

 

I can't watch manbun hiker videos so no idea as to his reasoning.

As far as higher for longer goes, I think they're more likely to stay elevated as long as fiscal stimulus is pumping at the current levels. Loose fiscal policy is fighting tighter monetary policy. 

[BabaYaga 15116]

On 5/11/2024 at 2:05 PM, washparkhorn said:

Orthodox economics is a political ideology costumed in mathematical nonsense to rationalize the anarchy of entrenched wealth. Always has been; and always will be.

No shit.  That's why for all those listening, it's housed as a liberal arts major, and not in the business school.  

The "dismal" science indeed, as it's been oft used for rationalizing actions for far too long.  

Edited May 13 by BabaYaga

[UTPhil2006 3753]

PPI up 

[UTPhil2006 3753]

Powell: demand down, wages down, fiscal policy unsustainable.. rate likely to hold. Increase unlikely 

[washparkhorn 9894]

[lucious leftfoot 126]

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

fiscal policy unsustainable

 

[washparkhorn 9894]

We are not close to fiscal instability in the US. Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is more than 250%, yet the Yen remains one of the world’s reserve currencies. 

“Fiscal instability” is what the crooks scare the dum-dums with, while they steal money out the back door. Stop being a dum-dum.

[Thetexashammer 1062]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

We are not close to fiscal instability in the US. Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is more than 250%, yet the Yen remains one of the world’s reserve currencies. 

“Fiscal instability” is what the crooks scare the dum-dums with, while they steal money out the back door. Stop being a dum-dum.

During fiscal year 2023, the US government borrowed $2.7 trillion. This was about ten percent of GDP. (It is worth noting this is not the reported deficit. Some of you sadly still believe the lies.) This year will see an acceleration, resulting from a number of things but notably a significant steepening of the first derivative of interest expense. When we hit a recession, let's say we see deficits north of $4 trillion, but probably higher or about 20% of gdp. We will  hit your 250% number pretty quickly at that rate.

The federal government borrowed 43 cents of every dollar it spent LAST YEAR. That will only go up moving forward. If the federal government starts to cut trillions on its spending (it has to), it will induce a recession from which we will require decades to recover. 

At some point, these facts will receive mainstream attention and it will be like Enron. Everybody LOVED Enron, until they didn't. I don't think "collapse" is the scenario, nobody wants that, and the plunge protection team will prevent it. However, all that money we borrowed (accelerating future spending into the present) has to be paid, and the public will pay it through massive and unrelenting (but "transitory" LOL) inflation and lower standards of living. I think an "accident" is more likely than collapse. Banks going down one after another. Major companies going bankrupt. Major government programs getting eliminated. I mean, how do you think we get to balance when we need to cut half of federal spending? Devaluation of the currency. Finance becomes musical chairs.

After the supply chain problems resolved, we did not see a reversion to lower prices. Most likely that was due to the massive increase in money supply, and that supply is only getting blown up even more at an accelerating rate. We are now in the steep part of the exponential interest expense, the one that human minds don't readily comprehend.

I've never made a prediction of when, but I will now. It will start within five years. Gird your fucking loins, because we haven't seen anything like this before. Take the existing social chaos and multiply it by massive unemployment and rampant stagflation and let's see what we get. We fucked around, now we will find out. 

Edited May 15 by Thetexashammer

[lucious leftfoot 126]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

We are not close to fiscal instability in the US. Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is more than 250%, yet the Yen remains one of the world’s reserve currencies. 

“Fiscal instability” is what the crooks scare the dum-dums with, while they steal money out the back door. Stop being a dum-dum.

Is there any debt or deficit level that concerns you?

[Neonmoon 38126]

1 hour ago, Thetexashammer said:

During fiscal year 2023, the US government borrowed $2.7 trillion. This was about ten percent of GDP. (It is worth noting this is not the reported deficit. Some of you sadly still believe the lies.) This year will see an acceleration, resulting from a number of things but notably a significant steepening of the first derivative of interest expense. When we hit a recession, let's say we see deficits north of $4 trillion, but probably higher or about 20% of gdp. We will  hit your 250% number pretty quickly at that rate.

The federal government borrowed 43 cents of every dollar it spent LAST YEAR. That will only go up moving forward. If the federal government starts to cut trillions on its spending (it has to), it will induce a recession from which we will require decades to recover. 

At some point, these facts will receive mainstream attention and it will be like Enron. Everybody LOVED Enron, until they didn't. I don't think "collapse" is the scenario, nobody wants that, and the plunge protection team will prevent it. However, all that money we borrowed (accelerating future spending into the present) has to be paid, and the public will pay it through massive and unrelenting (but "transitory" LOL) inflation and lower standards of living. I think an "accident" is more likely than collapse. Banks going down one after another. Major companies going bankrupt. Major government programs getting eliminated. I mean, how do you think we get to balance when we need to cut half of federal spending? Devaluation of the currency. Finance becomes musical chairs.

After the supply chain problems resolved, we did not see a reversion to lower prices. Most likely that was due to the massive increase in money supply, and that supply is only getting blown up even more at an accelerating rate. We are now in the steep part of the exponential interest expense, the one that human minds don't readily comprehend.

I've never made a prediction of when, but I will now. It will start within five years. Gird your fucking loins, because we haven't seen anything like this before. Take the existing social chaos and multiply it by massive unemployment and rampant stagflation and let's see what we get. We fucked around, now we will find out. 

[Snake Diggity 4545]

2 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

During fiscal year 2023, the US government borrowed $2.7 trillion. This was about ten percent of GDP. (It is worth noting this is not the reported deficit. Some of you sadly still believe the lies.) This year will see an acceleration, resulting from a number of things but notably a significant steepening of the first derivative of interest expense. When we hit a recession, let's say we see deficits north of $4 trillion, but probably higher or about 20% of gdp. We will  hit your 250% number pretty quickly at that rate.

The federal government borrowed 43 cents of every dollar it spent LAST YEAR. That will only go up moving forward. If the federal government starts to cut trillions on its spending (it has to), it will induce a recession from which we will require decades to recover. 

At some point, these facts will receive mainstream attention and it will be like Enron. Everybody LOVED Enron, until they didn't. I don't think "collapse" is the scenario, nobody wants that, and the plunge protection team will prevent it. However, all that money we borrowed (accelerating future spending into the present) has to be paid, and the public will pay it through massive and unrelenting (but "transitory" LOL) inflation and lower standards of living. I think an "accident" is more likely than collapse. Banks going down one after another. Major companies going bankrupt. Major government programs getting eliminated. I mean, how do you think we get to balance when we need to cut half of federal spending? Devaluation of the currency. Finance becomes musical chairs.

After the supply chain problems resolved, we did not see a reversion to lower prices. Most likely that was due to the massive increase in money supply, and that supply is only getting blown up even more at an accelerating rate. We are now in the steep part of the exponential interest expense, the one that human minds don't readily comprehend.

I've never made a prediction of when, but I will now. It will start within five years. Gird your fucking loins, because we haven't seen anything like this before. Take the existing social chaos and multiply it by massive unemployment and rampant stagflation and let's see what we get. We fucked around, now we will find out. 

If you are right about the events preceding a collapse or “accident”, my guess is that sentiment will cause unemployment to rise.  Rates will fall rapidly as a result.  The debt, whose inflation adjusted value has already fallen significantly, will be refinanced at the new lower rates, dramatically reducing the debt service.  The end result won’t be a boom, but it will be far from catastrophic.  Now, that’s not to say the debt isn’t an issue, it is, and if it doesn’t get addressed then eventually there will be a collapse.  But I do not think that is only 5 years away.  
 

The great wealth transfer and dramatic demographic shift we are just now starting that will last another 15-20 years will have big time impacts on the economy and government spending.  How we deal with those issues is just as important as how much debt we already have when thinking about how the future looks.

[washparkhorn 9894]

2 hours ago, lucious leftfoot said:

Is there any debt or deficit level that concerns you?

I worry about traitors choosing to voluntarily default on debt payments.

A single, self-authorized, issuer and net supplier of an unpegged fiat currency can never default on debts payable in its own currency—unless it chooses to do so in a massive act of stupidity.

[UTPhil2006 3753]

14 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

We are not close to fiscal instability in the US. Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is more than 250%, yet the Yen remains one of the world’s reserve currencies. 

“Fiscal instability” is what the crooks scare the dum-dums with, while they steal money out the back door. Stop being a dum-dum.

The words were straight from CNBC.. no commentary. You can take it up with them. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

17 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

If you are right about the events preceding a collapse or “accident”, my guess is that sentiment will cause unemployment to rise.  Rates will fall rapidly as a result.  The debt, whose inflation adjusted value has already fallen significantly, will be refinanced at the new lower rates, dramatically reducing the debt service.  The end result won’t be a boom, but it will be far from catastrophic.  Now, that’s not to say the debt isn’t an issue, it is, and if it doesn’t get addressed then eventually there will be a collapse.  But I do not think that is only 5 years away.  
 

The great wealth transfer and dramatic demographic shift we are just now starting that will last another 15-20 years will have big time impacts on the economy and government spending.  How we deal with those issues is just as important as how much debt we already have when thinking about how the future looks.

3.4 percent today. 

Yes, they will go to zirp and abandon the 2% target because high rates don't impact fiscal irresponsibility.

[Biff Tannen 44917]

21 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

After the supply chain problems resolved, we did not see a reversion to lower prices. Most likely that was due to the massive increase in money supply, and that supply is only getting blown up even more at an accelerating rate.

[Dbeasy 14733]

23 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

We are not close to fiscal instability in the US. Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is more than 250%, yet the Yen remains one of the world’s reserve currencies. 

“Fiscal instability” is what the crooks scare the dum-dums with, while they steal money out the back door. Stop being a dum-dum.

Your continued defense of indefensible deficits using that big brain of yours is one of the great mysteries of surly. 

[lucious leftfoot 126]

12 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Your continued defense of indefensible deficits using that big brain of yours is one of the great mysteries of surly. 

 

19 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

I worry about traitors choosing to voluntarily default on debt payments.

A single, self-authorized, issuer and net supplier of an unpegged fiat currency can never default on debts payable in its own currency—unless it chooses to do so in a massive act of stupidity.

I wasn't asking about defaulting on the debt or any of the political games around the debt ceiling.

 

I'll rephrase the question. Do you see any potential negative consequences related to our current debt and/or deficit levels?

[washparkhorn 9894]

3 hours ago, lucious leftfoot said:

I'll rephrase the question. Do you see any potential negative consequences related to our current debt and/or deficit levels?

Spending is subject to limited real resources/the inflation restraint. 

[washparkhorn 9894]

3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Your continued defense of indefensible deficits using that big brain of yours is one of the great mysteries of surly. 

[B00M 5999]

7 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

This is the perfect plan with no obvious problems!

 

[Neonmoon 38126]

8 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Or as the richest nation on earth, we could raise taxes 

[Bozo_Casanova 25500]

16 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Or as the richest nation on earth, we could raise taxes 

 No. Taxes can only go down*, because of something JFK said in 1962. God appeared to Arthur Laffer in the form of a wild conjecture and gave him a cocktail napkin sketch showing that as tax rates approach zero, revenues rise vertically, QED.  
 

 

 

 

Spoiler

* except on middle class people and below.  Because fuck them

 

Edited May 16 by Bozo_Casanova