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2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble


Js1

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Dems did not fuck around in SOS races in critical 2024 states. 

Michigan, Wisconsin (Dem incumbent is up), NV (SOS may win the biggest of all the races), AZ (also may be the biggest winner of all the statewide races), CO.  Even GA's SOS, even though he's an R, remains in charge and he is no hack. 

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4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

 

 

 

A 1 to 2 seat majority raises the specter of losing floor votes on the regular and a majority in disarray.  Particularily in a caucus that is at war with itself.

Special elections could tip the House - people die, people resign for better jobs, people resign bc of scandals. 

Any special election between now and 2024 could tip the House 

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Just now, 6th Street said:

The demise of Trump is bittersweet. On one hand it's great to see him and POS family potentially cast aside. On the other hand Biden misses out on a slam dunk victory in 2024.

Until the rank and file fully abandon him, I do not believe it.   The crazies outvote the moderates in the presidential primaries. 

These same people were against him in 2016 until he won the primary.  They fall in line so easily. 

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Until the rank and file fully abandon him, I do not believe it.   The crazies outvote the moderates in the presidential primaries. 
These same people were against him in 2016 until he won the primary.  They fall in line so easily. 

It’s a cult. There’s no logic to whether the GQP breaks from him. They won’t. Unless and until their members are deprogrammed. Which isn’t happening because of polls, or common sense, or moderation.
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For those CA races that are critical to a potential majority:

CA-13, CA-22, CA-27

All have only mail-ins to count (huge chunk of the vote), which are very Dem leaning

Dem edges:

CA-27, Dems have 140k outstanding mail-in ballots and indies have 100k.  That dwarves the GOP's 84k outstanding
CA-22, Dems have 110k outstanding ballots and indies have 84k.  GOP only has 62k outstanding
CA-13, Dems have 110k outstanding and indies have 82k.  GOP has only 67k outstanding.  

These ballots tend to break 2:1 for the Dems.  Big numbers.

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Just now, WhatTheBuck said:

So where do we stand on the Dems’ strategy of backing Trump’s wingnut candidates? Are we okay with that now?

It worked without Trump on the ballot.  I'd be wary of doing it in 2024. 

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Trump gets a lot of people to vote who had no faith in politics to begin with.  That is the only reason he won in 2016 and wasn't trounced by historic proportions in 2020 and all the polling was wrong.  He got a lot of people to vote who weren't normally voters.  The GOP is going to be trying like hell to figure out how to rid themselves of Trump while retaining his cult of unlikely voters while not alienating everyone else.  It's going to be interesting as fuck to watch.

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Just now, chainsaw said:

That's Mayra Flores' schtick

Nothing like blaming your base and then declaring you're going to make a comeback in 2024.

Just now, Goredho said:

The GOP is going to be trying like hell to figure out how to rid themselves of Trump while retaining his cult of unlikely voters while not alienating everyone else.  It's going to be interesting as fuck to watch.

So....Obama. 

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Would they support Desantis if Trump told them to?  I think the next 2 years are going to be about:
  • The Dems trying to engineer Trump being their opponent
  • The GOP trying to get Trump to step aside and bring his flock to Desantis

Well good for the GOP that trump is not an ego maniac and will easily be convinced to step aside
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3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Trump gets a lot of people to vote who had no faith in politics to begin with.  That is the only reason he won in 2016 and wasn't trounced by historic proportions in 2020 and all the polling was wrong.  He got a lot of people to vote who weren't normally voters.  The GOP is going to be trying like hell to figure out how to rid themselves of Trump while retaining his cult of unlikely voters while not alienating everyone else.  It's going to be interesting as fuck to watch.

Well at least the stakes are low

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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

For those CA races that are critical to a potential majority:

CA-13, CA-22, CA-27

All have only mail-ins to count (huge chunk of the vote), which are very Dem leaning

Dem edges:

CA-27, Dems have 140k outstanding mail-in ballots and indies have 100k.  That dwarves the GOP's 84k outstanding
CA-22, Dems have 110k outstanding ballots and indies have 84k.  GOP only has 62k outstanding
CA-13, Dems have 110k outstanding and indies have 82k.  GOP has only 67k outstanding.  

These ballots tend to break 2:1 for the Dems.  Big numbers.

I'm assuming you're referring to the indy ballots generally breaking 2:1 Dem? So we could reasonably expect something like the following (assuming the D & R ballots mostly follow party lines):

CA-27, Dems have 140k (+66k indy) = 206k dem votes outstanding mail-in ballots and indies have 100k.  That dwarves the GOP's 84k (+33k indy) = 117k R votes outstanding That would have dems winning by a solid margin
CA-22, Dems have 110k  (+55k) =165k D outstanding ballots and indies have 84k.  GOP only has 62k (+29k) = 91k R outstanding Solid margin for Dems
CA-13, Dems have 110k (+54k) = 164k D outstanding and indies have 82k.  GOP has only 67k (+28k) = 95k R outstanding Again, solid margin for dems

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If we learned anything from this:

Trafalgar is trash

Insider Advantage is trash

Coefficient is trash

Data 4 Progress is trash

Real Clear Politics is trash

 

If you listen to or read these and come away believing what they say, you are a stupid moron 

Just now, SquishMitten said:

I'm assuming you're referring to the indy ballots generally breaking 2:1 Dem? So we could reasonably expect something like the following (assuming the D & R ballots mostly follow party lines):

CA-27, Dems have 140k (+66k indy) = 206k dem votes outstanding mail-in ballots and indies have 100k.  That dwarves the GOP's 84k (+33k indy) = 117k R votes outstanding That would have dems winning by a solid margin
CA-22, Dems have 110k  (+55k) =165k D outstanding ballots and indies have 84k.  GOP only has 62k (+29k) = 91k R outstanding Solid margin for Dems
CA-13, Dems have 110k (+54k) = 164k D outstanding and indies have 82k.  GOP has only 67k (+28k) = 95k R outstanding Again, solid margin for dems

The overall mail ballots tend to break 2:1 - Dems have to be very optimistic about these 3 races.

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7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well at least the stakes are low

The surest way to kill Trump politically and get his flock to crawl back under their rock of political disenfranchisement is for sensible conservatives and moderates who have left the GOP to return and vote against him in the primaries.  Once he is no longer a viable candidate, he has no power or leverage anymore.

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1 hour ago, WhatTheBuck said:

The outcome is already determined. I don’t see what’s interesting about where the count stands at any given moment until all the votes have been counted and the already decided outcome is revealed. 

Schroedinger's ballot?

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1 minute ago, Goredho said:

The surest way to kill Trump politically and get his flock to crawl back under their rock of political disenfranchisement is for sensible conservatives and moderates who have left the GOP to return and vote against him in the primaries.  Once he is no longer a viable candidate, he has no power or leverage anymore.

Nobody has the balls to be made fun of like what happened to Little Marco, Lyin' Ted, Low Energy Jeb(!), and everyone else. They are all sheepishly hoping DeSantis will absorb all of the bullying.

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5 minutes ago, Goredho said:

The surest way to kill Trump politically and get his flock to crawl back under their rock of political disenfranchisement is for sensible conservatives and moderates who have left the GOP to return and vote against him in the primaries.  Once he is no longer a viable candidate, he has no power or leverage anymore.

He eventually kills everything he touches, as some parasites do. We just have to wait and see if it’s the party or the country he’s killed this time. 
 

the gop likes having all of those deplorables’ votes and will do what it takes to keep them in the fold as they transition away from trump.  He has also planted the seed that winning by force is still winning and is a viable option when you don’t win at the voting machine. 

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1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

He eventually kills everything he touches, as some parasites do. We just have to wait and see if it’s the left or the country he’s killed this time. 
 

the gop likes having all of those deplorables’ votes and will do what it takes to keep them in the fold as they transition away from trump.  He has also planted the seed that winning by force is still winning and is a viable option when you don’t win at the voting machine. 

I think (hope?) Trump was uniquely qualified to motivate those deplorables, and that they would return to their regularly scheduled political disenfranchisement once he is not around to motivate them.  Beat him in the primaries and make him say those elections are rigged.

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1 minute ago, SquishMitten said:

No joke. If it's anything close to 2:1, they walk away with it. Hell, at those numbers, it might only need to be 1.3:1

Yeah, the CA-13 deficit right now is like 200 votes; CA-22 is like 4k and CA-27 is 18k. 

CA-40 is probably out of reach

The Dem is up in CA-41 by 10k.  This is a flip watch.

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

With Sean Patrick Maloney losing in NY, the Hochulmander getting thrown out (fuck you Cuomo) and Zeldin running stronger really fucked over the Dems. 

The whole majority could have been lost in NY alone. I do believe those seats are flipping back to the Dems in a presidential year though.  

This New York mess is like a Sark coached UT squad.

Get out to a big lead: Have total dem control of legislature so that they could gerrymander the crap out of the state

Let the oppo hang around: Lose court cases so that gerrymander is nullified and a republican map used in election

Let them get back into the game: Repubs hammer crime while Dems rest on Roe outrage

Lose: Dems drop seats in NY instead of picking them up when they control all levers of gov.

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Just now, Dnaguy said:

This New York mess is like a Sark coached UT squad.

Get out to a big lead: Have total dem control of legislature so that they could gerrymander the crap out of the state

Let the oppo hang around: Lose court cases so that gerrymander is nullified and a republican map used in election

Let them get back into the game: Repubs hammer crime while Dems rest on Roe outrage

Lose: Dems drop seats in NY instead of picking them up when they control all levers of gov.

Key And Peele Reaction GIF

It's all Cuomo (Herman)'s fault in this case.  His appointees broke the Hochulmander.

That guy fucking SUCKS!  @PenelopeWitherspoon can tell us. 

That Guys Is The Worst Liz Lemon GIF - That Guys Is The ...

Can NY State do a mid-decade redistrict?

Also 89 people were what separated NY from losing a seat or not. 

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2 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:


i don’t think NV senate is over yet. Lot’s of mail vote still out in Clark County. 

Just leaving Vegas now, but the Dems here remain pretty confident.

When you read about "mail-in" votes that are still to be counted in Washoe and Clark, you need to understand that those aren't actually mailed in.  The "mail-in" ballots that were received before Monday have all been counted.

The "mail-in" ballots that have yet to be counted are almost entirely ballots where the voter received a ballot in the mail, put it in an envelope, and dropped it at a polling place on election day.  And those are going to be even more Democratic than the rest of the mail-in ballots, because that was the entire Democratic GOTV focus.  They told people, "hey, it's super easy; just go and drop your ballot at the polling station and you don't have to wait in line like a schlub."

So Cortez Masto is going to win.  And she's probably going to win somewhat comfortably.  She was hitting all of the benchmarks that the Party's people expected her to need.

Sisolak is still well below the glide path.

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Katie Porter (who is at 50.3% with all in-person votes counted) confirmed in an email that California will update every night at 5pm PT with more votes.

All in-person votes have been counted in California.  Now we wait. 

Its-mail-time GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

 

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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Just leaving Vegas now, but the Dems here remain pretty confident.

When you read about "mail-in" votes that are still to be counted in Washoe and Clark, you need to understand that those aren't actually mailed in.  The "mail-in" ballots that were received before Monday have all been counted.

The "mail-in" ballots that have yet to be counted are almost entirely ballots where the voter received a ballot in the mail, put it in an envelope, and dropped it at a polling place on election day.  And those are going to be even more Democratic than the rest of the mail-in ballots, because that was the entire Democratic GOTV focus.  They told people, "hey, it's super easy; just go and drop your ballot at the polling station and you don't have to wait in line like a schlub."

So Cortez Masto is going to win.  And she's probably going to win somewhat comfortably.  She was hitting all of the benchmarks that the Party's people expected her to need.

Sisolak is still well below the glide path.

Sounds like you had a fun night.  You were there for Aaron Ford, right?  Ford looks like one of the bigger winners of the slate, along with Aguilar (SOS).

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Just now, Js1 said:

Katie Porter (who is at 50.3% with all in-person votes counted) confirmed in an email that California will update every night at 5pm PT with more votes.

All in-person votes have been counted in California.  Now we wait. 

Its-mail-time GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

 

We can’t lose her, she is the best in house when it comes to hammering ppl with the whiteboard. That is a tight race 50.3 to 49.7, less then 1k difference in votes  

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