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College Football Playoff Teams - 2023 Version


closetojumping

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Good list.  I agree on the top 4.

Not sure I'd call tOSU a pretender, but I do expect this to be Michigan's year.  I do think Penn St along with Tennessee are worth mentioning. I'm glad someone else realizes KSU is a team this year.  My vote in the PAC is Utah.

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2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Gives us your homerish thoughts on Clemson for this season.

The pieces are there to go to the CFP. I think Riley will make a huge difference. Clemson won 10 last year with the most predictable and boring offense, and with a QB who didn't fit in it. 

Antonio Williams and Adam Randall are actually really good WR, and Briningstool is a good TE. Mafah is the best RB, even though Shipley gets the press. 

OL is decent and has depth. Secondary is good and has depth. LB are best in the country. DL is solid with good depth at DT. 

Where it can all fall apart is horrible depth at QB, WR, DE, and LB. Any of the starters go down there and it's over. They might be able to survive a hit at DE by running more 3 man fronts, but Klub, Williams, Randall, Trotter or Carter go down and it's gonna be bad. 

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11 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Good list.  I agree on the top 4.

Not sure I'd call tOSU a pretender, but I do expect this to be Michigan's year.  I do think Penn St along with Tennessee are worth mentioning. I'm glad someone else realizes KSU is a team this year.  My vote in the PAC is Utah.

Tennessee is a good one that I forgot to list. My problem with Tennessee is that I don't believe in Joe Milton, like, at all. I think he's got a giant arm and that blinds people on the outside. The guy wasn't good enough twice already in his career. They'll have an excellent WR corps for sure. It's a senior-laden offense with damned near every starter being a senior, but who is scared of their backs or TE? The same is true on defense, where I think they have 9 or 10 senior starters. That experience is tough to match, so maybe they're legitimately a playoff contender. 

PSU will have a stud backfield and an excellent defense. They probably have the first OT off the board in next year's draft, too. I don't think anyone picking PSU is an idiot, but they'll have to prove that they can beat Michigan and Ohio State in the same season first, for me. They get Iowa early from the west. That defense is going make Aller prove that he's as good as PSU thinks he is. To their credit, they get an off week and then play UMass before going to Ohio State, so they'll be prepped. 

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Georgia

tOSU

Texas

Clemson

Feels pretty good about the first three (with Michigan being an obvious swap-out with tOSU depending on how that game goes - I just hate them).

Clemson runs the ACC until someone proves them otherwise, which is unfortunate because they have strong "fake college in an unlicensed video game" vibes, from their clip art logo to their general lack of noticeable impact on society. I did like their fans when they came to NC State last time, though. Good people, knew their football. Excited to tailgate with them on Monday.

Agree that the Pac cannibalizes itself.

Edited by texifornia
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Georgia-schedule is a cakewalk and even if they somehow lose a game they probably get in as 2 time defending champs

USC- will put up huge numbers and generate hype for Williams, etc. Will be in even if they lose a game 

Clemson- elite defense, Klubnik is better than DJ plus little Riley should help that offense. Easy conference 

LSU- not buying the Daniels hype, but Kelly is a good coach and its their turn in the SEC West

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Iowa - They avoid OSU and Michigan. They will have a top 5 defense in the country and create havoc as usual. The same will be true for STs. McNamara is the best QB in Iowa City since the midget idiot from Texas whose name I forgot. Only Brian Ferentz and a history of not being able to get there hold this team back. If they don't win the west, I'll be surprised.

 

 

 

Drew Tate. He was a fun watch. From Baytown. He was a hell of a high school QB. I hadn't realized he was committed to ATM before Slocum was canned.

- - -

1. Michigan

2. UGA

3. Texas

4. Clemson

I originally put USC, but I don't believe they'll get out without two losses.

Edited by MuellerHorn
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Georgia- Brock Bowers is unstoppable, and they have a charmin soft schedule. They enter the SECCG 12-0

Ohio State- I just don’t see them losing to Michigan 3 years in a row. 

Michigan- They don’t make the Big10 CCG, but 11-1 is good enough for them to get in

Alabama- After losing to Texas in week 2, they get on track in a hurry and win the West. they upset Georgia in the SECCG, but both teams end up in the playoffs 
 

 

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

We did this last year and it was fun. It was also brutal. I think one or two posters got 3 of the 4 correct? I did no better than Desmond Howard, pathetically. I took Ohio State, Alabama, NC State (Christ) and Oklahoma State (should have had me crowdsourced from this board). I'll try to do better this year. 

College Playoff Semifinalists:

1) Michigan - They play a cupcake schedule, they get Nebraska, Minnesota and Purdue from the Big 10 West and play 3 G5 teams in the non-con. They're loaded in the backfield, on the OL and at TE. Defensively, they're always good. Missing Iowa and Wisconsin is helpful for them. I think Rhule makes Nebraska formidable, and I expect them to play tough this year, but they don't have the dogs yet. Purdue and Hudson Card - lol and Minnesota is an okay and predictable 7-6/9-4 team that won't beat Michigan.

2) Georgia - Look, they're loaded, but they have lost so many NFL high draft picks that there is some reason to give pause. They're starting a new QB, their WRs aren't scary, and they replace a ton on defense. They don't have the same kind of bad ass on the DL, yet. None of that is really compelling to counter Brock Bowers, the freshman safety, their OL, and one of the weakest schedules in the country. I would be flat out shocked if they're not in the playoffs. 

3) Texas - Mock away, assholes. The roster is loaded, the Big 12 is down, and this is the best year ever in the Saban era, sans 2007, to catch Bama at home in week 2. Only Sarkisian's playcaller's block and injuries can alter this outcome, and those are not going to happen, dammit. 

4) Florida State - They have a loaded roster and they play in a weak league. Verse is one of the best pass rushing threats in CFB, Travis is a fine QB, and Norvell is an excellent coach. They have to beat one of LSU and Clemson and they're in by going 12-1. 

The Pretenders:

Alabama - I have been all over this board espousing the logic for Bama being less formidable than they have been in a long ass time. Converting to a conservative offense, adding two new coordinators, replacing 16 starters including the country's best defender and one of the best QBs in years, getting a very violent match-up in week two and then playing a tough SEC schedule that includes both Tenn and UK from the east is a recipe for new problems. There are 2-3 losses in there, if not 3-4.

Oklahoma - Oklahoma may well go 10-2 this year because of their schedule. I think Venables is a simple idiot, so I doubt they get that far, but the schedule is weak enough and the brand is big enough that they're at least getting mentions.

Ohio State - I struggled not including them in the CFP, but I wanted to have a little fun. They also avoid Iowa but do play Wisconsin. They also play Notre Dame in South Bend, so that will be tough. They have problems on the OL and the QBs are unproven. Day is a damned fine developer of QBs, however, so I don't see much risk on that spot. They have one of the best TB rooms in the country and the best WR room in the country. They have some things to prove defensively after another late season collapse on that side of the ball. There's enough here for me to feel okay thinking they finish at #5.

Notre Dame - They looked great against Navy. The problem with that is that Navy looked really, really terrible. I don't make too much of that game. Notre Dame, irrespective of week 0 results, need to prove they have dynamic playmakers at TB, WR, and TE. I don't think they have the horses against other big time programs. Defensively they'll be sound, but I don't know if they have a front 7 that is going to scare OSU, Clemson and USC. 

USC/Washington/Oregon/Utah/UCLA/Oregon State - The Pac 12 is top heavy with 6 really good teams this season. They are going to beat each other up and I don't see one emerging with less than 2 losses. Were that to happen, that team would have a resume to get in. They all have some flaws, but the two biggest are USC's defense and whether Rising can actually go all season with his playing style coming off the injury. 

Clemson - Klubnik has the hype, as does Shipley, but Clemson still has the same problems on offense - they don't have guys at WR or TE that scare anyone and their OL is mediocre because it always is. They have an excellent defense as always, but is it top 2-3 in the country? When Clemson was truly the best of the best, they had dynamic playmakers at QB, TB and WR, and there were 2-4 high draft picks playing every year in the front 7. 

LSU - The tigers got away with some breaks last year and did a great job of playing above their heads for Bama. Perkins is getting more hype than damned near any defender nationally. He's not going to surprise anyone. Daniels has to be the top runner again this year because the backfield is meh. If he gets hurt, they're in trouble because Nussmeier isn't the same running threat. They have a great OL and an emerging TE. Their WR corps is overrated. Nabors is getting absurd hype for someone who isn't scaring anyone. I'm sure the defense will be excellent, but there's enough here to doubt a playoff run with their schedule. 

Not worth consideration even if being mentioned elsewhere: North Carolina, Penn State, Wisconsin, TCU

Dark Horse Contenders:

I don't really believe either of these will get there, but oh well. 

Iowa - They avoid OSU and Michigan. They will have a top 5 defense in the country and create havoc as usual. The same will be true for STs. McNamara is the best QB in Iowa City since the midget idiot from Texas whose name I forgot. Only Brian Ferentz and a history of not being able to get there hold this team back. If they don't win the west, I'll be surprised.

Kansas State - They return their entire OL and a good QB. They'll be very well-coached and they will play tough. The defense will be sound. They lack gamebreakers and dynamic speed. I expect 10-2, but they could also just methodically walk through the schedule outside of potentially two match-ups with Texas where they'd need some breaks. 

Special Mention:

Texas ATM - I've seen them get dark horse mentions. They have paper thin depth at OL, TE, LB, and CB. They're loaded on the DL and Safety/NB. The first 4 WRs are an excellent unit. Little depth after that. They have meh and flakes at TB. They're an injury away from jaggerhood at QB. My view is that if that ATM had an OU 2000-esque run where they didn't lose anyone to injuries all year and Weigman lived up to the internal aggie through-the-roof expectations, maybe they make noise. My expectation is that they shit themselves in Miami and Fisher leaves Petrino at the airport, buying his own plane ticket back to BCS. 

Sorry for the length, I guess? Anyway, who do you have?

Also, sorry if I have a glaring omission somewhere. I wrote this off the top of my head and on the fly in order to get something out.

 

I was the only one to get 3 last year I believe. 
I think you just about nailed it. I’m going to sub in LsU for FSU, but if that preseason game goes the other way then you are right and I’m wrong. All your also rans also matched up with mine  

 
Georgia, Michigan, Texas, LSU. 

Realistic chance to make playoffs: top 6 teams in pac 10, Ohio State, penn state, Domers, fsu, Clemson, Kansas state, Oklahoma, Alabama, aggy, Tennessee 

I think the most realistic teams to make playoffs if it’s not my 4, in order, are: OSU, USC, FSU, Clemson, Bama  I don’t give anyone else much of a chance  

 

good work as always  


 

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PAC-12

Utah- They'd be my favorite to make a CFP if I didn't have concerns about Rising's health and they play the toughest conference schedule of all the contenders
Oregon- Trips to Lubbock in Week 2 and, Seattle in October (albeit after a bye), and SLC in late October (Rising presumably healthy by then) loom. Good team but I think 10-2 at best.

USC- Defense is still too soft. This is a very similar team to Riley's OU teams that made the CFP. The difference is that the PAC is much stronger than the B12 was at the top

Washington- Another good team but not good enough to make it through unscathed. I wonder about their depth a bit and I see 3-2 as best case out of @MSU, Oregon, @USC, Utah, @OSU

UCLA- Popular sleeper pick. I don't see them as much more than a 9-3 type spoiler for the CFP contenders. They do have the most favorable schedule fo the contenders though

CFP Teams: 0

BIG 12

Texas- If we weren't so jaded from Texas not meeting expectations since 2009, this would be one of the easiest CFP picks across the board. This is probably the worst Alabama team Saban has had in a decade and we get them early in the season before they get in any sort of groove. The top of the Big 12 is weak. There are a lot of decent teams that can pull an upset here or there but nobody can match what Texas has. Anything less than 10-2 is a disappointment and 11-1 should be the expectation and that should warrant a CFP berth.

OU- We know all too well about how difficult it is to right the ship after a setback season. They don't have the difference makers offensively to overwhelm anyone. They'll be ok but I don't see anything better than 10-2 despite their soft schedule.

KSU- This is probably the biggest threat to Texas as B12 champion. They don't have the talent to roll through the entire B12 though. Trips to Stillwater, Lubbock, and Austin are not easy. Probably 10-2.

Rest of the B12 will be good not great. Nobody is going to going 11-1/12-0 but there will be plenty of 8-4 teams that beat each other up

CFP Teams: Texas

 

B1G

Michigan- This will be another very good team. Non-con is a joke and they get favorable teams from the West. They are 11-1 at worst imo and is probably my favorite pick to make the CFP.

Ohio St- They are going to score a ton of points even with a new QB. @Notre Dame, Penn St, @Wisconsin, and @Michigan will likely be too tough for them to get through undefeated and they will lose the head to head to Penn St or UM and be on the outside looking in. I could see it playing out a bit like last year though in which they go 11-1 and still make the CFP

Penn St- I'll believe they can win the big ones when I see it. They get Iowa from the west which will be difficult and they go to MSU in the last week of the season which will be a rock fight in 15 degree weather. 10-2 at best but I think 9-3 is more likely.

Iowa- I think they are heavy favorites in the West and could be 11-1 or 12-0 and squarely in CFP contention when the B1G Championship rolls around. I do think their offense takes a step forward and their schedule does not scare me outside of trips to Penn St and Wisconsin.

CFP Teams: Michigan

 

SEC

Georgia- I think this Georgia team is more like the 2018/2019 teams rather than to 2021/2022 ones. That being said, its a super soft schedule. There's still room for a slip up @Auburn or @Tennessee and they are probably in although then they would have to win the SEC Championship. I think they probably get in by default though.

Alabama- As stated earlier, this is the worst Alabama team in a decade. Major questions at QB, relatively weak WR talent, and only an OK O Line by their standard. They may get hot down the stretch but Texas catches them at a great time. They are going to try to play bully ball but I don't think they have the advantage in the trenches that they have been accustomed to in the Saban era. I think this is probably a 10-2 team but they probably still win the West.

LSU- I think they are a bit overrated. Obviously return a ton from last years 10 win team but they got handled in three of their 4 losses and I don't think they are dramatically better than last year's team. FSU in week 1 could be a loss, @Ole Miss, Auburn, @Alabama, and A&M will yield at least one loss. So you're best case 11-1 going into the SEC championship against UGA again which they will not win.

Tennessee- Sleeper pick of the SEC if there is such a thing. I don't trust Milton one bit but Hooker was a very good college QB so I don't knock him that much for not starting over him. We all know that the system makes it easy for QB's, he just needs to be more accurate and this team will roll through most of their schedule. Their two tough games are @Alabama which they should be able to outscore, and UGA which will be very tough but I still give them a puncher's chance. If these guys had a more proven commodity at QB, I'd pick them. They could also get the 11-1 non-champion treatment that Ohio St got last year too.

A&M- LOL no. But seriously, they will probably be better than 5-7 but anyone predicting them doubling their win total from last year is an idiot. Paper thin depth, known culture issues that have led to them quitting games, and the ticking time bomb that is the working relationship between Petrino and Jimbo. I think it'll be 7-5.

The rest is mediocre. Auburn might sneak up on some but they don't have the talent to make a run.

CFP Teams: Winner of Georgia/Tennessee. Picking Georgia

 

ACC

Clemson- By far and away the most talented roster in the ACC and are kinda flying under the radar due to the hype FSU has gotten. The offense is going to be improved in a big way. Garrett Riley is the best OC they have had there since Chad Morris. I don't really think Klubnik is that good but he can definitely be as good as Max Duggan was for TCU last year. If the offense is scoring points, the ACC is weak enough that they can out-talent most everyone on defense and roll. Both FSU and Notre Dame are at home which will be their two toughest games. 12-0 or 11-1 is my prediction.

FSU- Good team but is being overhyped due to the weak ACC. They lucked into their win against LSU last season and lost to every other decent team they played. LSU in week 1 is huge as their schedule is pretty soft other than @Clemson. I think 10-2 is most likely.

Notre Dame- I'll put them here since I don't see any G5 teams worthy enough to have an 'other' category. I think they are a lot better than last year but this year will showcase how under appreciated Brian Kelly is as a HC. He won at least 10 games every season from 2017-2022. 10 wins is what I see the ceiling is for this team. @NC State, Ohio St, @Lousiville, USC, and @Clemson are all losable or likely losses.

Nobody else in the ACC is worth mentioning

CFP Teams: Clemson

 

TLDR: Michigan, Texas, Georgia, Clemson

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Michigan

Texas

FSU

USC

 

9-3 Alabama blows out 11-1 Georgia in the SEC championship game, knocking them out of the top 4. Michigan is undefeated, and the other three have one loss. 

Edited by Ill
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1 hour ago, perfectchaos007 said:

Georgia- Brock Bowers is unstoppable, and they have a charmin soft schedule. They enter the SECCG 12-0

Ohio State- I just don’t see them losing to Michigan 3 years in a row. 

Michigan- They don’t make the Big10 CCG, but 11-1 is good enough for them to get in

Alabama- After losing to Texas in week 2, they get on track in a hurry and win the West. they upset Georgia in the SECCG, but both teams end up in the playoffs 
 

 

This is a horror story. So it's probably correct, given our luck.

Plus, this is one (of many) ways that TCU embarrassing themselves on the biggest stage last year might provide for unintentional consequences and the committee going with blue chips who lost to themselves who they know will be competitive versus one of the dark horses going undefeated.

Edited by animaltobacco11
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In seed order Georgia, Texas, Michigan, Alabama.

Georgia, duh.  Their toughest game before the SEC championship game is Tennessee.  Two time champ, they are a lock even if they go 12-1 and don't win the conference.   It's difficult to contrive a scenario where they don't get in.

Texas.  We will be favored in every game except 1 and its an out of conference game against one of the all time great programs who is still in the midst of probably the most dominant run in the BCS/CFP era.  We've underachieved for over a decade but this is the strongest roster since 2009 where we were one of the two best teams in the country.  I think we are one of the four best this year.

Michigan.  Easy-ish schedule, a couple of tough games Penn State (road) and Ohio State (home).  After that they are probably double digit favorites in every game.

Alabama.  I do think Saban still has it.  I absolutely think he would rather have a great QB than have to play bully ball and try to win with a ground game and a defense but he is gonna try and make do with what he has and I like that approach rather than morons trying to run their 'systems' with whatever guys happen to be on the roster.  SEC West is still tough though and this is the seed I have the least confidence in just because of their road to get there.

 

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Georgia - best team in the country

Ohio State - name one season when Ohio state wasn’t in serious contention for the CFP at the end of the year. I’ll wait. Michigan loses to them and gets upset somewhere along the way

Bama - was it Twain that said “rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated”? It’s fucking bama. They are loaded with talent and they finally feel like they have something to prove. They’re winning it all imo. 
 

Texas - holy living fuck if we don’t make the cfp with this much talent and that schedule.

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4 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Texas - holy living fuck if we don’t make the cfp with this much talent and that schedule.

This is a weird take.  I'd trade schedules with just about any other team in the nation besides Minnesota.

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Georgia - Because of their schedule and talent.
LSU - Because I want to play the SEC on the way to the final.
Texas - Cause if Steve does not fuck it up with his lack of adjustments during games everything is in place for us to be there.
Michigan - That rivalry always seems to go on long streaks

My dream scenario is beating Alabama, LSU and Georgia on the way to a championship and see who in the media dares ask if we are ready for the SEC. We know aggy will still ask and assert it even under my dream scenario.

 

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35 minutes ago, texifornia said:

I would not. You have a lot of faith in the Big XII midfield.

I think it is better than most midfields, but even if you don't it is still one extra conference game, a CCG against #2, and Bama OOC.

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  • immamac featured this topic

Georgia - I don't see how they lose until the CCG and a loss there would still keep them in. But they are due for a step back.
Ohio State - they just always manage to get their ass into the playoff
Washington - Pac going to be a dogfight but I really like Penix and Deboer
Clemson - ND and FSU at home. Garbage the rest of the schedule. They sucked last year at QB and OC and still went 11-3.
 

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3 hours ago, Ill said:

Michigan

Texas

FSU

USC

 

9-3 Alabama blows out 11-1 Georgia in the SEC championship game, knocking them out of the top 4. Michigan is undefeated, and the other three have one loss. 

Sec ain’t getting left out dawg fuck USC

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7 hours ago, MuellerHorn said:

Drew Tate. He was a fun watch. From Baytown. He was a hell of a high school QB. I hadn't realized he was committed to ATM before Slocum was canned.

- - -

1. Michigan

2. UGA

3. Texas

4. Clemson

I originally put USC, but I don't believe they'll get out without two losses.

Baytown Lee had a hell of a run of quarterbacks under Olin.  Four consecutive guys who ended up starting at Baylor/Arkansas/Kansas State/Iowa.

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