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Time to let NOLA go?


Nice Guy Eddie

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19 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

So just toying around with numbers on this:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGMP35380

1.  The annual GDP for the area is  about $82 billion (not a perfect representation because it includes Metarie)

2.  There are 41,000 hotel rooms in New Orleans area (according to Google, not perfect I know)

3.  According to the hospitality industry, right now 65% occupancy is pretty normal 

https://www.ahla.com/news/report-hotels-continue-recover-2023-industry-begins-new-era-operations#:~:text=Average hotel occupancy is expected,from 2.35 million in 2019.

4.  The bond rate for the US government right now is about 4.53% on a 30 year.  

 

So economically does it make sense to invest in the area?  Obviously, this depends on the cost of the improvements, but losing 82 billion in GDP sure isn't great.  I have no idea the amount it would cost to make this sustainable so I arrived at a completely arbitrary number of $100B (I'm sure there are feasibility studies out there).  If my math is correct (a big if), in order to satisfy the bond over the 30 year term for this sort of cost improvement would mean a hotel surcharge of $43.00 per night per room.  Obviously, this is a simplified way to look at it, and the actual financing of such a project would be dramatically more complex (and hotel tax to my knowledge is generally more of a local tax, I just needed reasonable way to demonstrate cost repayment so I used that).  

 

 

 

I don’t understand what this is trying to solve for. The levee reconstruction cost the Corp of Engineers something like $15B - it will need to be bolstered again soon and will be expensive but I’d doubt anything close to $100B over the next century. 

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4 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

I don’t understand what this is trying to solve for. The levee reconstruction cost the Corp of Engineers something like $15B - it will need to be bolstered again soon and will be expensive but I’d doubt anything close to $100B over the next century. 

I was just thinking in terms of a more permanent solve.  The most expensive infrastructure public works project I could think of was the Big Dig in Boston, which was complete about in 2007.  At the time, it came in at about 25 billion, and had cost over runs, and significant delays.  Given it's 16 years later, with inflation, and frankly a larger project, I took a thumb in the air and said $100 billion.  Again, that's a complete stab in the air.  

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

….. and like, if only the people of Austin were the type of go-getters to engineer themselves out of the situation, Lake Travis would not be so low, and you wouldn’t have a string of an excess of 100° temperatures. They haven’t done so by now, so the only hope is the federal government bail out in Austin. 

I see I upset someone that lives in NOLA. Yes, climate change is negatively impacting Austin with 100 degree weather similarly in how water levels rising from climate change are negatively impacting NOLA. Great comparison.

The differences is Austin didn’t build a city on the face of the sun. NOLA did build a city below sea level. Knowing this, you would think the main impetus of the entire city, and maybe state, would be to solve this problem with all their resources considering the aforementioned climate change and rising sea levels, you know, like the Dutch did hundreds of years ago. 

But like I pointed out, trying to tip toe around the CR implications, the city and state are not the type of people to make this happen. To be fair, this seems like more of an national trait these days. Ignore the problem, pretend it doesn’t exist, and cry for help when it’s too late. I could be wrong, maybe Louisiana launches the biggest infrastructure project 

 

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22 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I see I upset someone that lives in NOLA. Yes, climate change is negatively impacting Austin with 100 degree weather similarly in how water levels rising from climate change are negatively impacting NOLA. Great comparison.

The differences is Austin didn’t build a city on the face of the sun. NOLA did build a city below sea level. Knowing this, you would think the main impetus of the entire city, and maybe state, would be to solve this problem with all their resources considering the aforementioned climate change and rising sea levels, you know, like the Dutch did hundreds of years ago. 

But like I pointed out, trying to tip toe around the CR implications, the city and state are not the type of people to make this happen. To be fair, this seems like more of an national trait these days. Ignore the problem, pretend it doesn’t exist, and cry for help when it’s too late. I could be wrong, maybe Louisiana launches the biggest infrastructure project 

 

You should be a little more careful with your dog whistles. If we can all hear it, it's not being effective.

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7 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

President Coolidge came down in a railroad train

With a little fat man with a note pad in his hand

President Coolidge say "Little fat man ain't it a shame"

"What the river has done to this poor cracker's land"

 

Guy Forsyth does a hell of a cover of this song.  Very pretty.

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1 hour ago, Deej said:

What if, and I'm.just spitballing here, we swapped NO for College Station? Just pick everything up and move them. 

I guarantee you don't want all of New Orleans. French Quarter to uptown to maybe Lasalle is fine. Take the cooks and lose most of the residents.

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Last time I looked I10 ran East and West pretty much through the middle of Houston, so I'm not sure that anything on it would be considered north Houston.  Besides none of the good wiggly establishments are on I10 anywhere.

Oh…I didn’t say they were any of the good ones.
That’s the charm of that stretch of…businesses. If you’d like a dance from a gal with a stabbing scar, you have lots of options.
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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Oh…I didn’t say they were any of the good ones.
That’s the charm of that stretch of…businesses. If you’d like a dance from a gal with a stabbing scar, you have lots of options.

You haven't really lived until you've experienced a lap dance from a fair lass with a homemade C section.  Afterwards, you may not want to either, but the sun rises.  

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You haven't really lived until you've experienced a lap dance from a fair lass with a homemade C section.  Afterwards, you may not want to either, but the sun rises.  

For Texas I will.

Also, some of y’all really don’t get the city we’re taking about. NOLA is simultaneously the greatest, and the worst, city on earth. The fact that my mother, a great cook and real beauty who took no shit from anyone and also was sketchy as shit, was from NOLA, has perhaps a little influence on my assessment.
So, we must save it. And we must let nature trash it. Both things will happen. As they always have.
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1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

I see I upset someone that lives in NOLA. Yes, climate change is negatively impacting Austin with 100 degree weather similarly in how water levels rising from climate change are negatively impacting NOLA. Great comparison.

The differences is Austin didn’t build a city on the face of the sun. NOLA did build a city below sea level. Knowing this, you would think the main impetus of the entire city, and maybe state, would be to solve this problem with all their resources considering the aforementioned climate change and rising sea levels, you know, like the Dutch did hundreds of years ago. 

But like I pointed out, trying to tip toe around the CR implications, the city and state are not the type of people to make this happen. To be fair, this seems like more of an national trait these days. Ignore the problem, pretend it doesn’t exist, and cry for help when it’s too late. I could be wrong, maybe Louisiana launches the biggest infrastructure project 

 

this is lazy and not well researched. every part of nola most people would visit is above sealevel.

most structures in the city are raised above sealevel. 

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2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

New Orleans is a great city. If it dies, they’ll just turn Baton Rouge into some Louisiana version of Southlake. 
 

Original structures, history means something. New Orleans is the most European city in the US and it’s a 5 hour drive from Houston. We all need this. 

Thank you. I fucking love New Orleans. And I hate Bourbon Street. When you're there you can just tell that you're in a genuine place with a genuine vibe. Honestly nowhere in Texas comes close to it. Yeah it has a lot of nastiness but you just gotta take that in stride.

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36 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Why must you sound like an ignorant anti-perspicacity pustule?  This is not your normal gig.

The fact that for the second time in over 30 years salt water intrusion is going up the Mississippi - has not one thing to do with the decision to settle New Orleans in the 1700s.  But move those goalposts to cover your comments that even the Cleti likely find devoid of thought.  I will try to educate you. The fact that the city is not built on higher ground was not a problem  after it was built. The United States government for reasons having more to do with commerce and benefiting the rest of the country, decided to change the course of the Mississippi post-1928.  That change destroyed the ability of the river to deposit alluvial soil in the delta, the system that created a many miles marsh barrier between hurricanes and the city. Every mile of Marshland lowers one foot of on-coming storm surge. Put another way, a 20 foot short storm surge with 20 miles of marsh between the city and the storm is a nothing burger.  The petroleum industry helped destroy the marshes around New Orleans, and entities other than the city of New Orleans changed the course of the river that helps destroy the ability of the Mississippi to deposit soil and create miles of marshlands in the Delta that protect the city from even large storms. 

Let’s recap.   The city was colonized and was never at risk from the gulf like it is now. The city after colonization was never at risk from the gulf like it is now for centuries. Federal law says that local and state interests cannot unilaterally implement many of the changes you think still need to be done, due to reasons beyond the control of the local entities. The corp of engineers has authority over anything having to do with navigation and also with flood protection.  Not only can we not change things to our whims,  if businesses and people are damaged from most corp fuck ups (if they can find anyway to say it has anything to do with navigation ) the United States government and the Corps of Engineers are immune from suit because of that damage done to us.

Now, we all occasionally post something that makes people laugh and point at us as if we were ignorant shit gibbons.   This is just your turn. I have explained to you that the state and the the city can only do so much to protect the city, because the Corps of Engineers has jurisdictional authority over almost all of that.  

And I unfortunately have to remind you that the Corp actually finished several billion dollars worth of work building that flood protection around the city.  I also must remind you that a  recent category three hurricane (Ida) came through and that there were no storm problems or flooding problems due to the corp’s prior work. Since that work has been long completed after much study (and after billions of dollars spent), you are going to have to explain to us exactly what additional hurricane flood protection need to be built by the lazy locals.  Because you appear to be under the assumption that all of the billions of dollars worth of storm surge work that has been done to protect metropolitan New Orleans was not done. It is sort of a mystery to me how you could think that way, given the fact that after Katrina all local entities and parish and city and state governments were working with the federal government to try to protect the city from then till the end of time.  I would also like to hear your very educated opinion as to why none of that occurred, and why we in New Orleans are apparently at fault for not pursuing a fix to avoid those climate change hurricanes things that - ya know - we already did in connection with the United States government. 

Finally, I would like to hear how you can give an analogy of building a city on the sun to this same situation, at least, without jabbing yourself in the nuts with an ice pick when you type while screaming, “I’m so fucking stupid!”

I especially like the part where you blame the victims for being victims.  I want to hear more about that.  I want to hear more about why people living in New Orleans today are responsible because people who lived in New Orleans many decades and centuries ago built there.   Exactly how many Mr. Peabody Way Back Machines do we need to build?   A little help there please Neonmoon, some of us can’t keep up.

 

 

tldr, Sorry for New Orleans, Glad New Orleans is gone, or get me a softshell crab poorboy.

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Why must you sound like an ignorant anti-perspicacity pustule?  This is not your normal gig.

The fact that for the second time in over 30 years salt water intrusion is going up the Mississippi - has not one thing to do with the decision to settle New Orleans in the 1700s.  But move those goalposts to cover your comments that even the Cleti likely find devoid of thought.  I will try to educate you. The fact that the city is not built on higher ground was not a problem  after it was built. The United States government for reasons having more to do with commerce and benefiting the rest of the country, decided to change the course of the Mississippi post-1928.  That change destroyed the ability of the river to deposit alluvial soil in the delta, the system that created a many miles marsh barrier between hurricanes and the city. Every mile of Marshland lowers one foot of on-coming storm surge. Put another way, a 20 foot short storm surge with 20 miles of marsh between the city and the storm is a nothing burger.  The petroleum industry helped destroy the marshes around New Orleans, and entities other than the city of New Orleans changed the course of the river that helps destroy the ability of the Mississippi to deposit soil and create miles of marshlands in the Delta that protect the city from even large storms. 

Let’s recap.   The city was colonized and was never at risk from the gulf like it is now. The city after colonization was never at risk from the gulf like it is now for centuries. Federal law says that local and state interests cannot unilaterally implement many of the changes you think still need to be done, due to reasons beyond the control of the local entities. The corp of engineers has authority over anything having to do with navigation and also with flood protection.  Not only can we not change things to our whims,  if businesses and people are damaged from most corp fuck ups (if they can find anyway to say it has anything to do with navigation ) the United States government and the Corps of Engineers are immune from suit because of that damage done to us.

Now, we all occasionally post something that makes people laugh and point at us as if we were ignorant shit gibbons.   This is just your turn. I have explained to you that the state and the the city can only do so much to protect the city, because the Corps of Engineers has jurisdictional authority over almost all of that.  

And I unfortunately have to remind you that the Corp actually finished several billion dollars worth of work building that flood protection around the city.  I also must remind you that a  recent category three hurricane (Ida) came through and that there were no storm problems or flooding problems due to the corp’s prior work. Since that work has been long completed after much study (and after billions of dollars spent), you are going to have to explain to us exactly what additional hurricane flood protection need to be built by the lazy locals.  Because you appear to be under the assumption that all of the billions of dollars worth of storm surge work that has been done to protect metropolitan New Orleans was not done. It is sort of a mystery to me how you could think that way, given the fact that after Katrina all local entities and parish and city and state governments were working with the federal government to try to protect the city from then till the end of time.  I would also like to hear your very educated opinion as to why none of that occurred, and why we in New Orleans are apparently at fault for not pursuing a fix to avoid those climate change hurricanes things that - ya know - we already did in connection with the United States government. 

Finally, I would like to hear how you can give an analogy of building a city on the sun to this same situation, at least, without jabbing yourself in the nuts with an ice pick when you type while screaming, “I’m so fucking stupid!”

I especially like the part where you blame the victims for being victims.  I want to hear more about that.  I want to hear more about why people living in New Orleans today are responsible because people who lived in New Orleans many decades and centuries ago built there.   Exactly how many Mr. Peabody Way Back Machines do we need to build?   A little help there please Neonmoon, some of us can’t keep up.

 

My post was too CR. Deleting it 

You are right. I am wrong 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Neonmoon
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5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I do enjoy the verbosity of lawyers when the twinge of an argument plucks their ass. 

Nothing in your large paragraph refutes the truth that New Orleans, or parts of it, were built below sea level. You can recite the entire history of Acadia for all I care, but it doesn’t change the current situation. Is it the current citizens fault? Of course not. And you are correct. As you astutely pointed out, the government has already spent billions trying to keep the city dry. It will take billions more.

I was wrong. The people, city or state, cannot solve this themselves. My point, which was terribly expressed, is that in a state where the majority of its citizens are actively trying to dismantle the Federal government, I wouldn’t put money on the whole water issue being resolved. And if I were you, I would move. 

To the original question, is it worth it? My vote is no. 

I realize that, as someone that lives in New Orleans, and probably loves New Orleans, I sound like an asshole. I fully admit to being an asshole and pretty ignorant in general. That being said, I don’t see this one ending too well for New Orleans. 

 

 

 

 

I just want to point something out, when we spend billions of dollars on infrastructure projects where do you think the money goes?  It doesn't wind up in North Korea's coffers, it winds up in for profit business, which in turn employees American workers.  When we issue bonds for this sort of stuff, the largest buyer of these bonds are generally speaking institutional investors, like pension funds.  Sure, there is foreign investment in them, because it's traded on open markets, but that foreign investment only serves to strengthen the perception of international value in the US dollar, which in turn helps to make the US Dollar the international reserve currency.  When we make an investment in ourselves, it does several things that are good; we make the needed improvement, we generate jobs, we generate investment income, and we strengthen our own marketability financially.  Can it go bad, yeah, it can, but if we don't make these sort of investments buying into our own future, that ain't good either.  

The best financial decision the US ever made was with the interstate highway system.  It cost billions, probably adjusted would be trillions.  Now imagine if we didn't make that investment.  

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12 hours ago, BamaATL said:

It's a really big problem with big emotions for the people from there and live there.  After Katrina, like I presume many, in the back of my mind I at least thought to myself that rebuilding may not be a great idea.  Don't get me wrong, I've greatly enjoyed visiting New Orleans, and I think it's unique atmosphere and culture are an important part of our overall cultural landscape.  It's pretty clear that climate and changing conditions are making this potentially unsustainable under current circumstances.  

What it boils down to is what is this worth to us as a society?  I'm of the belief that there is quite literally nothing that can't be done, it's just a matter of what it is going to cost.  Is it possible to provide a long term sustainable solution, certainly yes, the bigger question is it affordable?  Even if it's a massive cost, does that investment reap rewards, not just in the near term over the long haul (not just financially but culturally)?  It's easy to single out a place under obvious threat like this, and in current crisis, but before we all single New Orleans out, we need to consider that there are other places facing enormous challenges when it comes to water, like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Southern California, etc.  Are we simply going to start abandoning all these places, I doubt it.  

To me, it's potentially a precedent setting sort of thing.  If we yield, and leave New Orleans to nature's fate, what are we going to do in the face of other challenges?  We have to be careful as we geo-engineer as there are environmental consequences, but I believe we can do this successfully.  

https://www.wwno.org/the-debris/2015-06-08/katrina-the-debris-green-dot

The Urban Land Institute developed a plan for New Orleans that advocated for letting nature reclaim parts of New Orleans.  To say that it was politically unpopular is an understatement. 

BNOBgreendotmap_1.png

Coincidentally, today I happened to Google "build water pipeline across the U.S." thinking about the drought conditions in the West.  Didn't get a chance to read what came up before I got interrupted.

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6 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

https://www.wwno.org/the-debris/2015-06-08/katrina-the-debris-green-dot

The Urban Land Institute developed a plan for New Orleans that advocated for letting nature reclaim parts of New Orleans.  To say that it was politically unpopular is an understatement. 

BNOBgreendotmap_1.png

Coincidentally, today I happened to Google "build water pipeline across the U.S." thinking about the drought conditions in the West.  Didn't get a chance to read what came up before I got interrupted.

On the one hand, a lot of that was fucking stupid. Leaving out swaths of Broadmoor, Gentilly and 7th ward seem as absurd now as they did almost twenty years ago. Moon Landrieu lived in Broadmoor! But the lower 9 and parts of New Orleans East? Yeah, the city had been stagnating for fifty years by K and those neighborhoods had been in steep decline and there should have been a conversation about how much territory the city could properly administer going forward. Instead we punted and let Brad Pitt rebuild the 9 with a bunch of shitty houses. 
 

Also, pretty crazy how some of those proposed greenways actually ended up being built. Lafitte Greenway is one of my favorite things that’s happened in the past decade.  

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5 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

https://www.wwno.org/the-debris/2015-06-08/katrina-the-debris-green-dot

The Urban Land Institute developed a plan for New Orleans that advocated for letting nature reclaim parts of New Orleans.  To say that it was politically unpopular is an understatement. 

BNOBgreendotmap_1.png

Coincidentally, today I happened to Google "build water pipeline across the U.S." thinking about the drought conditions in the West.  Didn't get a chance to read what came up before I got interrupted.

I don't know any of the particulars related to this specific problem, other than to say I know that it needs a solution and I know it's not going to be cheap.  I also know that in order for there to be a realistic solution, it's not gonna make everyone happy.  

I guess the best way I know how to put this is if you have a rental property, it's generating revenue, but it's got a bad foundation that is going to fail, you have basically two options.  The first is to let it fail, and then you are left with nothing.  The second is to make an investment in fixing the problem and continue on in revenue generation, with the knowledge that over time you will not only get a return on the repair but and increase in the value of the property.  I think most rational people would choose the latter scenario.  

The issue is obviously far more complex than that, but I think the basic logic is sound.  

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9 hours ago, Smax said:

 

 

Build the wall?

We're gonna build a wall around New Orleans.  And we're gonna get France to pay for it.  (checks notes).  Dammit!  We're gonna get the Government of Louisiana to pay for it!  (checks notes-bankrupt, corruption, grift).  Dammit!  Okay, we're gonna have the Pike House pledges from Tulane pay for it.  Good, then it's settled.  

Ocean Infinity and their partner company here in Austin are being deployed by NOAA to model out how bad this can get with the salt water going the wrong way.  It's uh...how you say...far worse than anybody could have predicted.  This wasn't supposed to happen for another 20 years.  But then, not much this season was supposed to be physically possible yet.  

Good news is we found that lost shaker o' salt.  

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17 hours ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Last time I looked I10 ran East and West pretty much through the middle of Houston, so I'm not sure that anything on it would be considered north Houston.  Besides none of the good wiggly establishments are on I10 anywhere.

There are a couple on the east side that were rough about 25 years ago. I shudder to think what they'd be like today. 

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The most interesting thing about NOLA is that from a career and industry perspective, there isn't a ton there to make a great living and get rich. There is big healthcare and Entergy, and maybe a couple of other second tier options.

It seems the major industry is tourism and hospitality and food/drink with Mardi Gras, festivals and out of town dollars followed by dock workers at the Port of NO.

Not sure you'd lose much economically, but culturally how do we put a price tag on NOLA?

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On 9/24/2023 at 11:52 AM, Armybrat said:

So how are the Italians’ efforts going to preserve Venice?

Time will tell but this may only be temporary...

washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2022/11/26/venice-floods-mose-barrier-climate/

https://www.engineering.com/story/venices-tide-barrier-has-already-cost-6-billion-euros-will-it-work

 

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On 9/24/2023 at 11:59 AM, MissingInAction said:

Humans are parasites upon mother earth, and she's getting a fever to get rid of us.

I mean, at this point, she's just trying to reclaim areas that human intervention created. Some places will need to be abandoned and relocated, but the city can and should survive in a different form. I doubt any agreements can ever be made or sufficient funding provided, so it'll just end up being a clusterfuck with lots of people losing everything, because humans suck.

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On 9/24/2023 at 10:03 AM, Biff Tannen said:

This is going to be a massive issue in the next decade or so.  Climate change is also going to bring us problems we haven't even imagined yet.  It's going to be a huge test for humanity.  I don't think we will pull it off, at least not without a LOT of death.  

Hi Greta. 

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42 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Petty and ignorant.  

The only two boxes left to check.

Petty. I'm not a doomsdayist. It serves no purpose. New Orleans notwithstanding, climate change is not going to be “a massive issue in the next decade”. 

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