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Israel-Hamas war thread


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1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

This whole thing is the plot from a book I picked up at the airport.  Main character has to save the day from Russia generals trying to detonate a suitcase nuke in the ME to draw the Americans back into a drawn out campaign with Israel and divert resources from Ukraine.  I just fucking read this a few months ago.  

Probably a Brad Thor novel.  I've never read any of his stuff, but have seen it in airports, and every cover I've seen resembles the plot you just outlined.

 

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Probably a Brad Thor novel.  I've never read any of his stuff, but have seen it in airports, and every cover I've seen resembles the plot you just outlined.

 

Back before Netflix let you download shit to watch later, I'd read a couple books a week when I traveled for work. I read the first half dozen or so of his books. Entertaining, like most books of the genre, but not nearly as well researched as say the OG Clancy books. Dalton Fury's books were better as he was actually Ex-Delta, but he passed away  (fuck cancer) in 2017.  

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1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

What atf letter? I can’t find anything on the google machine. 

Don't know either - Google is full of too much stuff from past years, but a few days ago a neighbor who co-owns a gun store in the area mentioned that the ATF is worried about cartel activity later this year, so it could be related to that. He seemed to think it was related to one cartel moving against another, but he has a lot of stories about shit going down in Mexico, and I doubt the ATF is feeding him information, and any notices about travel would be put out by the State Department.  He could probably write some interesting novels though.

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My cousin that lives in Tel Aviv says he received an advisory to collect 3 days worth of food and water etc. I don’t know if that means something is imminent or just general wartime preparedness. FWIW he says he’s not that surprised by the attack. He’s lives there for a couple years and says tensions have risen recently. 

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3 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Back before Netflix let you download shit to watch later, I'd read a couple books a week when I traveled for work. I read the first half dozen or so of his books. Entertaining, like most books of the genre, but not nearly as well researched as say the OG Clancy books. Dalton Fury's books were better as he was actually Ex-Delta, but he passed away  (fuck cancer) in 2017.  

I've tried to explain to younger people the difference between OG Clancy and the later Clancy (in name only) stuff as well as others who have jumped into the mix, and it's hard.  I don't know if it's partly the time that stuff was written in, or how much detail went into Clancy novels, or both, but they view the whole genre as schlock.

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4 minutes ago, Boss Hogg said:

My cousin that lives in Tel Aviv says he received an advisory to collect 3 days worth of food and water etc. I don’t know if that means something is imminent or just general wartime preparedness. FWIW he says he’s not that surprised by the attack. He’s lives there for a couple years and says tensions have risen recently. 

They announced that across the nation. Started in the north last night. But I believe everyone should have 5 days of food, water, etc all the time. 

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Confirmed my buddies cousin's fiance was murdered, found the body in Be'eri Massacre

He was on duty and tasked to go help defend Kibbutz Be'eri. 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/testimonies-from-beeri-massacre-expose-deep-trauma-predating-israels-creation/
 

I can’t “like” that post at all, even though in-depth” knowledge is attached. Sorry for his loss.

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14 minutes ago, msucolt45 said:

I’m just worried about the potential “hornets nest” that might bring other countries to be involved. No boots on the ground for this, at least not yet. Just saying!

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What if it's aggy boys in boots and shorts?

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Well, the "What about Free Speech on Campuses?" debate just took a weird fucking turn.  

Speaking of that, this will be incredibly insightful panel of serious, serious people.  Probably gonna be a dick or two in the audience but come to our alma mater and listen to some inside baseball on all of this.  Amazing who they got together on such short notice.  Brisket's buying beers afterwards.  

https://www.clementscenter.org/event/israels-9-11-the-hamas-terrorist-attacks-and-the-future-of-mideast-security/

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14 minutes ago, Viper said:

 

 

Theis was back in 2010, I think you see the seeds of all the university groups coming out in support of rape and child murder as students like this grew in number and influence. I had to watch twice to make sure I heard it right. Her response at the end was chilling. 

 

 

God damn, credit to her for finally having the balls to admit she is for Hamas and Hezbollah, and good for him to continue pushing 

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8 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

 

 

NoCR, "Hey look the Pro-Hamas rally in Dearborn drew a bigger crowd than the President's UAW rally!"  

Seriously though, Detroit has a disproportionately large Palestinian population (reminds me of the Somalis in the Twin Cities).  But that video is a pretty weird fucking sight, in all honesty.  I am morbidly curious as to what I'm gonna see/hear on campus tomorrow and Thursday from student/student groups.  I'm sure there's assistant professors fumbling with scotch tape right now to get the right signage posted on their office windows for all to see.  

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54 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

That’s not what the discussion is about and you know it. 

Uh, no.   My reply (albeit short and sweet) to Armybrat was about one thing—whether Iran is funding Hamas.  That money (obviously) is fungible goes to the heart of it.  Nothing political about that.  Nice try, though.  If there’s a discussion about whether the US or the world should do something about Iran’s role in this then that would be political.  I avoid the political discussions in Surly like the plague and I won’t engage in that discussion.  And by the way, apologies in advance if I missed them, but I didn’t see your “CR is ——> way” remark to the 20+ smarmy posts about neocons and other right wingers in this thread.  Those posts are as political as it gets.  

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2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm not sure about that.

For one thing, I don't think it's at all clear that Iran is coordinating this.  Iran supports Hamas; that's apparent.  But I don't know that Iran put Hamas up to this.

If Iran were coordinating this, it seems to me that you'd also have Hizbullah also attacking Israel from the north.  The fact that you don't see anything more than a handful of rocket attacks--something that could be put together on a very spur-of-the-moment basis--indicates to me that Hamas may have completely Leroy Jenkinsed this shit.

But for another, Israel has its hands full right now.  It still has infiltrators trying to kill Israelis in Israel. It doesn't yet have its defenses fully manned in the north.  I don't think it really wants to bite off a full-scale war against a major regional power without first securing its own situation.

Yes.  Dan Senor's assessment was this was 1) a 50th anniversary-Tet offensive styled surprise attack and 2) it was for the express purpose of slowing down Israel-KSA normalization.  

Hamas is Iran's puppet, but with Hizbollah not involved directly or any clear signals that Russia or China directed Iran to order this, this seems like the most plausible rationale.

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43 minutes ago, HouTex said:

Uh, no.   My reply (albeit short and sweet) to Armybrat was about one thing—whether Iran is funding Hamas.  That money (obviously) is fungible goes to the heart of it.  Nothing political about that.  Nice try, though.  If there’s a discussion about whether the US or the world should do something about Iran’s role in this then that would be political.  I avoid the political discussions in Surly like the plague and I won’t engage in that discussion.  And by the way, apologies in advance if I missed them, but I didn’t see your “CR is ——> way” remark to the 20+ smarmy posts about neocons and other right wingers in this thread.  Those posts are as political as it gets.  

They were reported. And the very first post was very much an attempt to spur a political discussion. Troph’s response was factual. I don’t recall yours. I quoted the responses because they were continuing to derail the thread. 
 

Good day, sir. 

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3 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

“But what was the strategic motivation?  What’s the next move?”  As if we’re talking about Gary Kasparov and not terrorists mass murdering civilians of a country that has a million times more military might than they do.

I don’t think this was the first shoe to drop in their master plan.  They sought vengeance on people they hate, and they’re going to get wiped out now.  It wouldn’t exactly be a new paradigm for how these things go.

Yep.  We aren’t talking about the brightest group of people.  Lot of inbreeding for generations.  One third marry a first cousin. 

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2 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

“But what was the strategic motivation?  What’s the next move?”  As if we’re talking about Gary Kasparov and not terrorists mass murdering civilians of a country that has a million times more military might than they do.

I don’t think this was the first shoe to drop in their master plan.  They sought vengeance on people they hate, and they’re going to get wiped out now.  It wouldn’t exactly be a new paradigm for how these things go.

Terrorists want to terrorize people. 

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2 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

“But what was the strategic motivation?  What’s the next move?”  As if we’re talking about Gary Kasparov and not terrorists mass murdering civilians of a country that has a million times more military might than they do.

I don’t think this was the first shoe to drop in their master plan.  They sought vengeance on people they hate, and they’re going to get wiped out now.  It wouldn’t exactly be a new paradigm for how these things go.

Can we just skip forward to Iran finding out? 

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3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm not sure about that.

For one thing, I don't think it's at all clear that Iran is coordinating this.  Iran supports Hamas; that's apparent.  But I don't know that Iran put Hamas up to this.

If Iran were coordinating this, it seems to me that you'd also have Hizbullah also attacking Israel from the north.  The fact that you don't see anything more than a handful of rocket attacks--something that could be put together on a very spur-of-the-moment basis--indicates to me that Hamas may have completely Leroy Jenkinsed this shit.

But for another, Israel has its hands full right now.  It still has infiltrators trying to kill Israelis in Israel. It doesn't yet have its defenses fully manned in the north.  I don't think it really wants to bite off a full-scale war against a major regional power without first securing its own situation.

Plus, I think it takes 7 days for a carrier task force to go from Norfolk to the ME.

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