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Posted
42 minutes ago, linux said:

Also centrifuges are delicate if they are running, I don't think them being in a stored position makes them delicate.

They certainly are finely crafted, but if they're not spinning I would imagine they can be "packed" into a storage/shippable state. What makes them so vulnerable while spinning is that they spin at >50,000 RPM and the smallest bump can send all that kinetic energy out of control. 

Given the degree of saber rattling leading up to this attack I would be shocked if Iran had em spun up. No doubt getting bombed is not great for high grade technical equipment, but once they're that far up the enrichment cascade it doesn't take as many centrifuges to get to bomb grade so they could probably lose a few without severely setting things back. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Oh, I don't think we were necessarily aiming for a vent shaft or anything like that. But we were definitely aiming to have each pair of bombs follow the other to maximize the overall penetration. 

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Posted
8 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

What the former Intel leaders said was that a mysterious laptop, with no digital forensic chain of custody, shows up with a bunch of embarrassing, but not criminally inculpatory information on it has the earmarks of a Russian disinformation campaign.

They were, ultimately, wrong.  Unlike Fox News and election disinfo and half the other shit they spew, they did not know they were wrong ahead of time and spew it anyway.

The only people that knew the Steele Dossier was bullshit were Steele and I guess some of his sources.  People were credulous of it, but, again, unlike Fox News, they didn't KNOW it was bullshit before they started spewing.

What Fox News routinely does is disinformation, intentionally wrong information.  The rest is just being conventionally wrong, something Fox rarely admits to.

Below is part of the wiki description of the steele dossier.  It was raw intelligence and many of the allegations were confirmed by Mueller.  There is real journalistic criticism towards Buzzfeed concerning their decision to release the document. 

 

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Posted
9 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

...Top Gun Maverick style (aiming for the same hole).

Put a pic of South Austin's mom on the target and the Surly Horns horn dogs will take care of it.

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Posted (edited)

Are we sure it’s a good thing to shatter the President’s notion that he successfully nuked Iran into the Stone Age?  I mean, we either did, in which case there’s no need for us to get further entangled, or he thinks we did, in which case there’s no need for us to get further entangled.

Edited by Goredho
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Posted
9 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

What the former Intel leaders said was that a mysterious laptop, with no digital forensic chain of custody, shows up with a bunch of embarrassing, but not criminally inculpatory information on it has the earmarks of a Russian disinformation campaign.

They were, ultimately, wrong.  Unlike Fox News and election disinfo and half the other shit they spew, they did not know they were wrong ahead of time and spew it anyway.

The only people that knew the Steele Dossier was bullshit were Steele and I guess some of his sources.  People were credulous of it, but, again, unlike Fox News, they didn't KNOW it was bullshit before they started spewing.

What Fox News routinely does is disinformation, intentionally wrong information.  The rest is just being conventionally wrong, something Fox rarely admits to.

Not to sidetrack the thread further, but I think this is misleading. Nobody actually knows what happened. The most likely theory has always been that someone hacked Hunter's email and loaded up genuine emails along with a bunch of bullshit on a laptop that might have been stolen from Hunter or might've been another laptop entirely. What's pretty clear is someone tampered with the data on the laptop.  It might've been Russians, it might've been GOP operatives. We don't know and probably never will. Marcy Wheeler has a good summary of all the knowns and unknowns here: https://www.emptywheel.net/2025/01/24/embarrassingly-wrong-the-ongoing-misinformation-campaign-about-the-hunter-biden-hard-drive/.

 

 

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Posted

You have to know that communications are being monitored at all times in the region, most likely everywhere actually, and some higher up asked about the condition of the facility after the strike and the reply was “Everything is perfectly all right now. We’re fine. We’re all fine here now, thank you. How are you?”

Between satellite imagery of the activity around the sites and recovered conversations about the work to be done they’ll know in short order how effective the strikes were. I doubt the Iranians are sophisticated enough or have the organizational discipline to keep it quiet for long. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, victory88 said:

Daily reminder of that Netanyahu is charged with numerous war crimes and is starving an entire population.  Not only are they starving an entire population, they are using food trucks as bait to shoot civilians.  Want to know how sick this gets, Israel has observation decks where their citizens can watch this happen.  

Israel has murdered and killed more journalists than world war 1, world war 2, Vietnam war, and Afghanistan war, Iraq war combined.

Israel has killed 233 UN aid workers.  Most recent one was shot driving a UN aid truck.  Who is the terrorist again?  Or is that word only for Muslims?

 

 

 

Thanks for sharing this.  Anyone who is extremely hawkish needs to volunteer themselves and their sons and daughters for these wars moving forward.  It always amazes me that people like Mark Levin, for instance, are ready to volunteer everyone else but themselves in conflicts such as these.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

You have to know that communications are being monitored at all times in the region, most likely everywhere actually, and some higher up asked about the condition of the facility after the strike and the reply was “Everything is perfectly all right now. We’re fine. We’re all fine here now, thank you. How are you?”

Between satellite imagery of the activity around the sites and recovered conversations about the work to be done they’ll know in short order how effective the strikes were. I doubt the Iranians are sophisticated enough or have the organizational discipline to keep it quiet for long. 

Vast portions of this thread are dedicated to the idea that Iranians hid information on their nuclear program from inspectors with the IAEA under the previous agreement despite all audited and reported findings suggesting compliance with the agreement. No substantive proof of their non-compliance as ever been publicly disclosed. Assuming all of this was correct, it would be foolish to believe that Iran isn't sophisticated enough to continue to hide the true state of their nuclear program. 

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Posted

I figured it would be good to plug one of the really good youtube channels that started up with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The end of this particular video discusses the most recent strike. 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

You have to know that communications are being monitored at all times in the region, most likely everywhere actually, and some higher up asked about the condition of the facility after the strike and the reply was “Everything is perfectly all right now. We’re fine. We’re all fine here now, thank you. How are you?”

Between satellite imagery of the activity around the sites and recovered conversations about the work to be done they’ll know in short order how effective the strikes were. I doubt the Iranians are sophisticated enough or have the organizational discipline to keep it quiet for long. 

Just gotta circle back on this for another datapoint - NYT has reported that the pentagon (link to mediaite's story, because I don't have a NYT sub) was literally feeding trump fake attack plans because they were so worried about him leaking on truth social

So, once again, lol at "organizational discipline". Lmao, even.

 

Our so-called """organizational discipline""" resulted in Iran having plenty of heads up to relocate their nuclear stockpile and us not materially slowing down their ability to produce a bomb. So we spent probably upwards of a couple billion dollars between all the support crew and equipment used, didn't achieve the stated strategic goal, and did it all without congressional approval. Wow what sophistication!!!

Edited by Captainant
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Posted
11 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think it is fair to call it a failure even if it didn't result in complete destruction of the facility. I also don't know what the purpose of randomly dropping smaller bombs are dirt would be. By all accounts, this was an extraordinary tactical success and a well coordinated strike. I doubt any of the military planners seriously expected there to be a high chance of complete destruction of the facility. 

They didn’t need to completely destroy the place, they knew dear leader would just say it was and half the country will believe it or pretend it’s true. And don’t @ me about fucking cloak room, this is the President of the fucking United States reporting on matters of international conflict with nuclear implications. 
 

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Posted
35 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

You have to know that communications are being monitored at all times in the region, most likely everywhere actually, and some higher up asked about the condition of the facility after the strike and the reply was “Everything is perfectly all right now. We’re fine. We’re all fine here now, thank you. How are you?”

Between satellite imagery of the activity around the sites and recovered conversations about the work to be done they’ll know in short order how effective the strikes were. I doubt the Iranians are sophisticated enough or have the organizational discipline to keep it quiet for long. 

I have no doubt that we have a reasonably accurate damage assessment in hand.  I’m just not sure it’s in the President's hand, and if it is, if it would be allowed to contradict the result he proclaimed shortly after the attack.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Just gotta circle back on this for another datapoint - NYT has reported that the pentagon (link to mediaite's story, because I don't have a NYT sub) was literally feeding trump fake attack plans because they were so worried about him leaking on truth social

So, once again, lol at "organizational discipline". Lmao, even.

 

Our so-called """organizational discipline""" resulted in Iran having plenty of heads up to relocate their nuclear stockpile and us not materially slowing down their ability to produce a bomb. So we spent probably upwards of a couple billion dollars between all the support crew and equipment used, didn't achieve the stated strategic goal, and did it all without congressional approval. Wow what sophistication!!!

I get it. You hate all things associated with the current administration. I made no assessment of our own organizational discipline. You can point out the gaffes with Signal, and I would point out that no one saw the B2 raid coming when it did. 
 

Iran moving what material it had produced isn’t some 4D chess move. It was the obvious thing to do once they realized that their air defenses were useless and that their nuclear sites were targeted. The very fact that they were moved at all suggests the Iranians weren’t as confident in the bomb proof nature of their facilities as many on this board or knew at the very least that they’d have to dig it out. 
 

Supposing that that material did in fact make its way out of Fordow then there is still value in destroying or at least significantly delaying the use of those and other facilities for the foreseeable future. You don’t just throw you hands up and say “Fuck it” if one cow makes it out of the barn.

Lastly, it doesn’t take a lot of creative signals intelligence or satellite imagery to determine if a lot of concrete rebar etc is being ordered, sent to and delivered to places like Fordow or Natanz.

 

Posted
29 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

it would be foolish to believe that Iran isn't sophisticated enough to continue to hide the true state of their nuclear program. 

Hope for the best and plan for the worst, but as a spectator, it’d be foolish to think Iran can do anything right after watching them repeatedly get owned by a tiny nation over the last 3 months. Iran is a pariah a step above the Norks, but not much. 

Posted
7 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I have no doubt that we have a reasonably accurate damage assessment in hand.  I’m just not sure it’s in the President's hand, and if it is, if it would be allowed to contradict the result he proclaimed shortly after the attack.

That’s fair. Now take the other view and suggest that SigInt probably picked up someone saying everything is fine, someone who knew they were being monitored, and that someone at DIA decided to leak that in a report because they don’t like the POTUs. 
 

That’s why I said the truth is that the program probably wasn’t destroyed, but was knocked on it ass for a while. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, 'stache said:

They didn’t need to completely destroy the place, they knew dear leader would just say it was and half the country will believe it or pretend it’s true. And don’t @ me about fucking cloak room, this is the President of the fucking United States reporting on matters of international conflict with nuclear implications. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.8d8409bd2dad4e32635eecbf1d4c932f.jpeg

Isn’t the assessment based on satellite radar that’s accurate down to like a couple inches or better? Like… the fuck?

Posted
37 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Vast portions of this thread are dedicated to the idea that Iranians hid information on their nuclear program from inspectors with the IAEA under the previous agreement despite all audited and reported findings suggesting compliance with the agreement. No substantive proof of their non-compliance as ever been publicly disclosed. Assuming all of this was correct, it would be foolish to believe that Iran isn't sophisticated enough to continue to hide the true state of their nuclear program. 

That’s a lot of assuming, and the Israelis have shown both the willingness and ability to hack their systems, track their personnel and lure their leadership into target sites. 
 

All that to say that such absolutism is dangerous. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, B00M said:

Isn’t the assessment based on satellite radar that’s accurate down to like a couple inches or better? Like… the fuck?

Signals intelligence means people talk, and we capture the conversations. They’re most certainly talking about the damage to those facilities. The only question is whether they’re being caught out or if they’re making deceptive communications. Add that to other observable means. 

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