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Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition


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54 minutes ago, Warrrshington said:

Sark used to mock one of UW’s players who had a stutter in front of the team. The guy was gonna quit when Petersen came in and coach Pete found the guy a tutor. He stayed and flourished.
 

Great guy that sark. Not in over his head at all🤣

Username suggests it was you simple jack. 

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37 minutes ago, alphahydro said:

If I am a UW fan, these would be my concerns. 

1) We (UW fans) are excited to see UW against Texas' secondary.  But wait.  You're telling me Texas' passing attack is about as good as UW's on a given play?

EWERS 71% completion    9.0 AVG    3.5:1 TD:INT    162.6 Rating

PENIX   66% completion   9.1 AVG   3.66:1 TD:INT    161.4 Rating

But, we have so many weapons.  We (UW) have 4 WR/TE with 30+ Receptions and 10+ yards per reception

Wait, so does Texas?  And our pass defense isn't much better than theirs? 

But the Oregon game showed you can't defend our WR/TE and stop the run game. 

Wait, you're saying the same thing applies to us when Texas has the ball?  And Texas has a better run game than us and a better run defense?

---------------

this starts to look like a stalemate/relatively even matchup, similar to Oregon.  And you have to start looking at individual matchups (J. Sanders prolly being the most obvious positive one for Texas - and if they really are bad at tackling, you start to look at some of Texas' possible game breakers), coaching quality (one place where it looked like Oregon suffered in the games I watched).   And maybe how was UW able to play/defend against good passing attacks.  (basically USC/Oregon/AZ/Oregon state).  And frankly, you have to start looking at the difference between Brooks and the remaining RBs, imo.  Arizona seemed to do a lot of damage late with their bruising RB. 

In my experience in games like this, the first half will likely be a defensive battle. The announcers will say something dumb going into halftime like "We were expecting a shootout, but these defenses had other ideas.." Then, the party starts in the second half once both teams make adjustments and they both still end up over 30 points. 

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35 minutes ago, alphahydro said:

If I am a UW fan, these would be my concerns. 

1) We (UW fans) are excited to see UW against Texas' secondary.  But wait.  You're telling me Texas' passing attack is about as good as UW's on a given play?

EWERS 71% completion    9.0 AVG    3.5:1 TD:INT    162.6 Rating

PENIX   66% completion   9.1 AVG   3.66:1 TD:INT    161.4 Rating

But, we have so many weapons.  We (UW) have 4 WR/TE with 30+ Receptions and 10+ yards per reception

Wait, so does Texas?  And our pass defense isn't much better than theirs? 

But the Oregon game showed you can't defend our WR/TE and stop the run game. 

Wait, you're saying the same thing applies to us when Texas has the ball?  And Texas has a better run game than us and a better run defense?

---------------

this starts to look like a stalemate/relatively even matchup, similar to Oregon.  And you have to start looking at individual matchups (J. Sanders prolly being the most obvious positive one for Texas - and if they really are bad at tackling, you start to look at some of Texas' possible game breakers), coaching quality (one place where it looked like Oregon suffered in the games I watched).   And maybe how was UW able to play/defend against good passing attacks.  (basically USC/Oregon/AZ/Oregon state).  And frankly, you have to start looking at the difference between Brooks and the remaining RBs, imo.  Arizona seemed to do a lot of damage late with their bruising RB. 

well and if you look at the turnover stats and if you extrapolate from Texas run defense what could happen it's a dangerous match up for WA. Texas is built to compete in the SEC now and this is not an SEC SEC response (fuck those bitches) but to say that means stop the run without any extra help and then isolate the passing game and create more predictable play calling. Texas can rush the passer well at times, and WA throws deep more (not exclusively).  Texas has an opportunistic defense when it comes to turnovers - I posted about those stats earlier.  If Texas can shut down the run, turn some series into 3rd and long then magic can happen. WA has an even turnover margin and Texas is plus 0.5 per game. Something will have to give there. I have no reason to believe Texas offense will disappear in a big game, even though my PTSD wants to believe it will happen. If the Texas D shows up to play like it can, WA could be in a world of hurt.

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1 hour ago, Warrrshington said:

Sark used to mock one of UW’s players who had a stutter in front of the team. The guy was gonna quit when Petersen came in and coach Pete found the guy a tutor. He stayed and flourished.
 

Great guy that sark. Not in over his head at all🤣

You are going to really hate him when he tears out your soul in a few weeks. 

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5 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

In my experience in games like this, the first half will likely be a defensive battle. The announcers will say something dumb going into halftime like "We were expecting a shootout, but these defenses had other ideas.." Then, the party starts in the second half once both teams make adjustments and they both still end up over 30 points. 

That leads me to the second thing I would be worried about if I were a UW fan - assuming neither team sprints out to an early lead, do we (UW) have the depth in the second half to stay even in a close game with Texas? 

Or, do all the sudden the fresh front 7 of Texas start getting to Penix enough to disrupt our gameplan?  (From what i've seen, he does seem to throw at least 2 balls up for grabs each game when he gets pressured).

Everyone can have their own opinion on this, but after watching the P12 and SEC championship games, I remember thinking wow, the difference at the LOS is not subtle. 

If you skip to any part in these games, to me, the size, athleticism, speed, and violence in the DL and LB just seems to be on a different level.  I think some of this is due to depth.   (I was gonna post the OU game, but I didn't want to ruin anyone's day.  But I think you see something similar to teh Bama game in that game when it comes to speed, size, and violence on defense throughout the game).  

 

Of course UW can win this game going away if Ewers has a bad game, or there are a few unlucky breaks, etc.  But these are the things that would give me pause if I were a UW fan - thinking we had to play Texas 50 times, how would the game turn out on average. 

 

 

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Quinn doesn't need to be elite for Texas to win this game. UW needs Trice (or Durfee if you believe in unicorns) to be a wrecking ball for UW to have a chance to blow us out. I think Trice can do it, but our OL is gonna be healthier than they've been since the Bama game and they're more experienced now too.

If Penix is off, this game can get out of hand by the end of the first half. Unless we don't get it done in the redzone when given the opportunities.

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9 minutes ago, troph said:

well and if you look at the turnover stats and if you extrapolate from Texas run defense what could happen it's a dangerous match up for WA. Texas is built to compete in the SEC now and this is not an SEC SEC response (fuck those bitches) but to say that means stop the run without any extra help and then isolate the passing game and create more predictable play calling. Texas can rush the passer well at times, and WA throws deep more (not exclusively).  Texas has an opportunistic defense when it comes to turnovers - I posted about those stats earlier.  If Texas can shut down the run, turn some series into 3rd and long then magic can happen. WA has an even turnover margin and Texas is plus 0.5 per game. Something will have to give there. I have no reason to believe Texas offense will disappear in a big game, even though my PTSD wants to believe it will happen. If the Texas D shows up to play like it can, WA could be in a world of hurt.

I think this was Oregon's strategy in the P12 CG.   I'm not sure it worked out for them.  But it's hard to second guess when I know so little about either team.  I think defending UW is about picking your poison, and you'd be crazy not to try to stop the run without help. 

I don't know that Texas' strength at DT is going to be hugely disruptive, at least not early in the game.   But shit idk.  It does seem like Penix can panic when you get pressure up the middle.   I think one of the keys is can we limit the short game just enough without overcommitting via athleticism and the limit the run game just enough bc of the strength of the Dline. 

If we can't, there's just a lot to defend.  The Arizona game is pretty scary.  UW didn't score too many points, but holy shit did they march the ball down the field at will (if i'm thinking of the right game). 

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1 minute ago, alphahydro said:

I think this was Oregon's strategy in the P12 CG.   I'm not sure it worked out for them.  But it's hard to second guess when I know so little about either team.  I think defending UW is about picking your poison, and you'd be crazy not to try to stop the run without help. 

I don't know that Texas' strength at DT is going to be hugely disruptive, at least not early in the game.   But shit idk.  It does seem like Penix can panic when you get pressure up the middle.   I think one of the keys is can we limit the short game just enough without overcommitting via athleticism and the limit the run game just enough bc of the strength of the Dline. 

If we can't, there's just a lot to defend.  The Arizona game is pretty scary.  UW didn't score too many points, but holy shit did they march the ball down the field at will (if i'm thinking of the right game). 

Texas has stopped the run with minimal fronts all season long. If Texas can't do that to WA then go ahead and give WA the game.

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another possibility - other schools have found success by bringing an extra defender up the middle.  Can we simulate that pressure just by stunting DTs against their undersized center?  just grasping at straws / trying to figure out where there might be an advantage.  But their OL seems to have performed really well all season. 

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As usual, you make good points. A bit lost in all the excitement is how great this season has been regardless of what happens in New Orleans and hopefully Houston.
I'm made my prediction here already, and I openly admit, that i think Michigan's uniforms are the second best in the country.
I'd love nothing more than to watch the Storm Troopers take the field against Blue again like I did in the 04 Rose Bowl.  
Let's fucking go!

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Out of all this talk about Washington, I’m not reading much about their line play on either side of the ball. Texas can help out its secondary if it can control the line of scrimmage with just 4.  Penix and this unstoppable offense looked pretty average in more than a few games this year.
 

And we’re supposed to ignore the fact that they had something like 8 one score games? Ask the Vikings how well that worked out for them in last year’s playoffs against the Giants

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This UW team is really hard to figure out.  They basically play barely good enough to win, regardless of how good or bad the opponent is.  

I think a lot of this depends on just how good Oregon really is.  If Oregon truly is as good as all their so-called advanced metrics say they are, then this UW team must be pretty good.  Even Booger said himself that UW dominated on both lines in the Pac-12 championship game.  But then he later said UW does not play big boy football.  So doesn't sound like he even listens to himself talk.  

If Oregon is grossly overrated, then Texas will have an easy game.  

 

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1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

Maybe by comparison to the other CFP HCs, he’s not a strong recruiter but I think you’re overstating the case. The one full recruiting class was ranked about where UW has been forever. 

Be skeptical all you'd like. You've been away for awhile and I don't know what you followed or remember. My view on his recruiting capabilities are buoyed by the offline views of those I know who are paid to know their shit when it comes to recruiting. He doesn't like recruiting and he doesn't prioritize it. 

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1 hour ago, alphahydro said:

another possibility - other schools have found success by bringing an extra defender up the middle.  Can we simulate that pressure just by stunting DTs against their undersized center?  just grasping at straws / trying to figure out where there might be an advantage.  But their OL seems to have performed really well all season. 

I think Texas should bring pressure in the passing game. I was solely talking about the run game. If Texas has devote more than the minimum to stop the run it'll be a long night.

just finished the first half of the bama game. Texas pressured Milroe 11 times. according to Fowler's commentary, more than half his pass attempts in the first half. Penix can make plays, but that kind of pressure would be really, really good for the horns.

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1 hour ago, alphahydro said:

another possibility - other schools have found success by bringing an extra defender up the middle.  Can we simulate that pressure just by stunting DTs against their undersized center?  just grasping at straws / trying to figure out where there might be an advantage.  But their OL seems to have performed really well all season. 

I haven’t watched a ton of Washington, but teams have had success bringing second level blitzes up the middle. That is a lot different than bringing a safety down to help vs the run. 

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1 hour ago, Vertigo said:

In my experience in games like this, the first half will likely be a defensive battle. The announcers will say something dumb going into halftime like "We were expecting a shootout, but these defenses had other ideas.." Then, the party starts in the second half once both teams make adjustments and they both still end up over 30 points. 

Which probably means the winner of this game, like most big games, will be the team that can run ball.. all the BS in this thread is mostly about the passing games (mine included), but the bowl game was decided by Washington’s ability to run the ball 

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I just finished watching the bama game, damn we have some ballers. ant hill had TWO sacks in the second half and after over running the QB lane and giving up a nice run he settled down and contained and got the sack. Mitchell is a hoss. X was nails in the first half. OL was great in pass pro and late in the game run blocking. Dbacks were opportunistic all night. Quinn Ewers looked heisman worthy and Sanders was in some kinda beast mode (all year).

and btw, Milroe - except two INTs which Texas has been able to reproduce against other QBs - looked pretty damn good. designed draws, he scrambled well and led a surge in the second half. He looked like he did against Georgia and Auburn. This idea that Bama got better in a way that other teams did not is completely horseshit.

FUCK IT.

LET'S GO!!!!

 

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1 hour ago, Codaxx said:

I haven’t watched a ton of Washington, but teams have had success bringing second level blitzes up the middle. That is a lot different than bringing a safety down to help vs the run. 

Yeah, i didn't meant to reply to Troph.  I was adding on a thought to my last post and he happened to post right before I did. 

Here's how i see it -

1) UW didn't gash Oregon on the ground.  But they ran at a nice clip, and if you can run like UW did, you get in a lot of favorable down and distances.  And that makes them really tough to defend.  No one's worried about UW's RB going for 275.  But if you get outnumbered vs the run, you should be worried about the UW running back keeping the UW offense ahead of the sticks.  That's the risk of defending their rush with an honest front - you don't get gashed on the ground, they are just able (potentially) to run just enough to put themselves into positions that limit what you can call on defense.  (esp if you don't communicate well and get lost in the pulling and presnap motion, which is what looked to me like what happened to Oregon).

Or that's how i see it.  I haven't looked at the play by play, but that's kinda how i felt during P12CG (my guess it's part of the reason UW went 10-15 on 3rd).  I don't have any real concerns about getting wrecked by the UW run game directly.  I think the Texas front should do just fine against Oregon's run game.  I think it will be interesting to see how often UW runs the ball, but I personally don't really see it as a key to the game.  *knock on wood* In large part because I think Penix can still be deadly on third and long.  Obviously it's still better than 3rd and short...but idk.  will be interesting to watch that aspect of the game unfold.  obviously texas is not going to sell out to stop the run.  Just a matter of how much better they can do compared to Oregon without bringing extra men. 

2) regarding my comment, which in retrospect was kinda stupid. 

UW knows the opposing team is going to try to bring pressure up the middle to disrupt Penix.  The risk of bringing a safety is pretty obvious.  if you bring a LB, they love to run drag routes over the middle (from what i've seen in 2 games, lol).  I don't think Texas wants to gamble by bringing a safety, and i was just thinking out loud of ways that our advantage at DT would translate into getting pressure on Penix on passing downs.  If, esp late in a close game, our depth and DT quality allows us to get pressure up the middle without bringing a LB, that could be key.  But idk.  just spitballing. 

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@alphahydro Texas got insane pressure with 4-5 on Bama with Ant Hill spying Milroe as the 5th. Texas plays like that on the front and wowza. Shit Texas had five sacks and missed three more where Milroe slipped out. I get Penix is better and their line is too but give us 3 sacks with a 4 man front (maybe a 5th) and I’ll consider that good enough to win. 

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The shit talk bringing up the last twenty years when you haven’t won shit in over twenty years is the most aggy shit talk ever. Washington biggest win in the last 9 games was a 10 point blowout, the other 8 were 9 points or less. Hardly impressive at all. I’ve been saying it since we drew them, it will be a close game with Texas pulling away in the 4th to a 14 point win. Something around 38-24. 

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22 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Aside from Washington’s passing attack. I hate having a full month off. It’s nice to heal up but we were getting into the butt fucking groove and wrecking shop. That’s a long time off 

But it means more time for meaningful discussion with our opponent’s fans!! Isn’t that nice! 

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1 hour ago, Warrrshington said:

Longhorn fans high and mighty after getting buttfucked by schools like TCU and Baylor for the last twenty years. You and USC make the media jizz themselves over nothing every fucking year. You finally (kind of) did something this time. Good job👌

No mention of Oklahoma State? See this is what I meant earlier about our opponents never being given any respect.

And speaking of which why are you so high and mighty about TCU you snotty arrogant fuck? Do you think you are better than TCU? Typical West Coast elitism.

I can't wait for Texas to knock that shitty self satisfied grin off your elitist northwest face. Seattle with your grunge music and your coffee...think you are so good.

Baylor though...fuck them...and our record against them in the past 20 years is 14-6. I don't think a 6-14 record is buttfucking somebody. They typically only do that to women in an nonconsenting manner, not other football teams. So you can disrespect them.

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5 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Out of all this talk about Washington, I’m not reading much about their line play on either side of the ball. Texas can help out its secondary if it can control the line of scrimmage with just 4.  Penix and this unstoppable offense looked pretty average in more than a few games this year.
 

And we’re supposed to ignore the fact that they had something like 8 one score games? Ask the Vikings how well that worked out for them in last year’s playoffs against the Giants

O-Line for UW is strong in pass pro, mobile for screen game and pulling but not much as drive blockers in the running game. DL can mostly hold their ground and absorb blocks to let the LBs stay clean. One dangerous edge rusher. I think Texas should win most of the line battles and could dominate the LOS. 

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1 hour ago, Warrrshington said:

Longhorn fans high and mighty after getting buttfucked by schools like TCU and Baylor for the last twenty years. You and USC make the media jizz themselves over nothing every fucking year. You finally (kind of) did something this time. Good job👌

Literally just two years ago, Washington went 4-8. Their losses were to vaunted teams like Montana, Colorado, and Washington State.

I thought you guys were supposed to be smart. Have some perspective, pup.

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5 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

This UW team is really hard to figure out.  They basically play barely good enough to win, regardless of how good or bad the opponent is.  

I think a lot of this depends on just how good Oregon really is.  If Oregon truly is as good as all their so-called advanced metrics say they are, then this UW team must be pretty good.  Even Booger said himself that UW dominated on both lines in the Pac-12 championship game.  But then he later said UW does not play big boy football.  So doesn't sound like he even listens to himself talk.  

If Oregon is grossly overrated, then Texas will have an easy game.  

 

Booger did not say they can't play big boy football. He said he is not sure if they are ready to play big boy football because they have not played lines like those that Michigan, Alabama and Texas have. He said if they can't then that will be their weakness.

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Well, we just finished up most of a wildly successful year.  We went into Bama and buttfucked them to the tune of a 10 point win when we had the ball for the last 8 minutes and clowned them when they couldn't stop us on the ground after we threw all over their ass when they thought they could cover us straight up.  Would have been 17 points if we wanted it to be.  Could have been 28 if we didn't drop 2 TD's and an interception. 
Then, we literally laid waste to the big 12.  We now have scoreboard on every single team left in that shit ass conference and we got to boo Yormark off the stage while ironically chanting SEC SEC SEC at those fucking left behind dipshits.  I'm going to pretend, for the sake of happiness that the last 78 seconds of the OU game didn't happen.  Lets agree to never speak of that again. 
Basically, what it boils down to is Texas is pretty likely the best team in the country, we have a great offensive mind for a head coach that's awesome when he gets plenty of time to prepare, a loaded roster and the best team we've had in 15 years (this team is better than 09) while being headed into an SEC that we are going to skullfuck.  But first, we lay waste to Washington on January 1, 2024 in the Sugar Bowl, before going ahead and likely taking care of Bama in Reliant Stadium in Houston.
Game week notes and threads and thoughts and the like go here.  Hook Em high like an eagle soars!

Thumbs up from me for the ancient Hornfans reference “Fly high like an eagle soars”
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1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

Texas vs Washington Sugar Bowl Preview | Joel Klatt Previews the College Football Playoff Semifinal

 

If Texas gets pressure on Penix, Texas wins, if they don't, Washington wins.  I agree. set up third down pressure with success on first and second down. take away the run, make it a non factor and then pressure the fuck out of Penix. give up a play, forget and try again. we need 3-4 quality stops and 1 turnover/special teams momentum changer and we win. can it be done? especially the pressure on Penix? strength on strength? we will see. He's gonna have to score 35+ to win.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, troph said:

If Texas gets pressure on Penix, Texas wins, if they don't, Washington wins.  I agree. set up third down pressure with success on first and second down. take away the run, make it a non factor and then pressure the fuck out of Penix. give up a play, forget and try again. we need 3-4 quality stops and 1 turnover/special teams momentum changer and we win. can it be done? especially the pressure on Penix? strength on strength? we will see. He's gonna have to score 35+ to win.

 

 

Interior pressure and stop the run. Washington played a game against Arizona st at home and failed to score an offensive touchdown. Confuse Penix pre snap, get in his face, he will give the ball to us. I could see Washington getting into a bind early if our offense is clicking. 

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15 minutes ago, troph said:

If Texas gets pressure on Penix, Texas wins, if they don't, Washington wins.  I agree. set up third down pressure with success on first and second down. take away the run, make it a non factor and then pressure the fuck out of Penix. give up a play, forget and try again. we need 3-4 quality stops and 1 turnover/special teams momentum changer and we win. can it be done? especially the pressure on Penix? strength on strength? we will see. He's gonna have to score 35+ to win.

 

 

Here is a quick breakdown using Pts per Drive (unadjusted)

Michigan: 3.61 pts (5th) ..defense:  0.81 pts (1st)

Texas: 2.98 pts (14th).. defense  1.45 (13th)

Washington: 3.45 pts (6th).. defense 2.03 (45th)

Bama: 2.80 pts (25th)... defense 1.64 (19th)

 

https://www.bcftoys.com/2023-ppd/

Edited by Codaxx
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25 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Here is a quick breakdown using Pts per Drive (unadjusted)

Michigan: 3.61 pts (5th) ..defense:  0.81 pts (1st)

Texas: 2.98 pts (14th).. defense  1.45 (13th)

Washington: 3.45 pts (6th).. defense 2.03 (45th)

Bama: 2.80 pts (25th)... defense 1.64 (19th)

 

https://www.bcftoys.com/2023-ppd/

Klatt did not address Texas can score more easily on Washington than Washington can on Texas (which is what those stats suggest). But layered into that is some amount of defensive pressure to get TOs and stops. 

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2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Texas vs Washington Sugar Bowl Preview | Joel Klatt Previews the College Football Playoff Semifinal

 

I do not agree with his analysis. Everyone is focusing in on the Texas defense but not Washington's lack of a defense against our offense. 

I think this comes down to Texas not turtling after they take a 2 score lead. Washington can put up points in a hurry and if we do the turtle shit that we have been known for, that can be a dangerous combo. 

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Klatt did not address Texas can score more easily on Washington than Washington can on Texas (which is what those stats suggest). But layered into that is some amount of defensive pressure to get TOs and stops. 



Yeah, uh, Wash is the #1 passing offense in the country and we are the 95th?? ranked passing defense. We struggled with Kstate and Wil Howard. Not sure I agree that we can score more easily than them.
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3 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:

 

 


Yeah, uh, Wash is the #1 passing offense in the country and we are the 95th?? ranked passing defense. We struggled with Kstate and Wil Howard. Not sure I agree that we can score more easily than them.

 

 

Washington passing defense is 120th. Our passing offense is 18th. We have the number 13 scoring defense to Washington’s 48. So why can’t we do the same thing to them?

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