Jump to content

2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


Recommended Posts

Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Obama and Bill need to play elder statesman and get everyone on board with Harris. A month is not long enough for an open convention. Dem warfare. Dems in disarray. Every chuckle fuck will throw their name in 

Chucklefuck talk not going away.

  • Haha 2
Posted
41 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Reminder that the Trump/Vance ticket is incredibly easy to campaign against if you are capable of delivering the message:

'

Sassy GIF by reactionseditor

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Posted (edited)

Not endorsing his own vice president would be completely shitty. The only good thing that comes out of that is if Whitmer, Newsom, and any other options all throw their support behind her and say they will not seek the nomination. 

Edited by mdmost
  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
1 minute ago, troph said:

I think we vastly downplay the anti-trump vote causing undecideds to vote Biden. When push comes to shove the net negative for trump will carry the day for many. Will those same moderates vote for Harris, I honestly don't know. What we do know is black women carried HRC and suburban white women ate HRC alive. I would expect that to hold true for Harris as well.

I tend to think the vast majority of those voters are voting blue no matter who. By definition, the anti-Trump vote is driven by...Trump, not the other guy/gal.

Some, primarily men, will likely break off due to race and/or gender. I doubt you ultimately see a major white woman defection. This is a very different country for women than it was 8 years ago, as youl obviously well know, and the electorate has changed. The entire 18-25 cohort couldn't even vote in 2016. Most under 30's couldn't or didn't. Millions of older voters have died since then. Less white, on balance. There has not been a decades-long coordinated right wing media onslaught building hatred of Kamala Harris nationally like there was for Hillary Clinton.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Posted
1 minute ago, mdmost said:

Not endorsing his own vice president would be completely shitty. 

Yeah, I take that Newsmax reporter with a massive grain of salt.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
Just now, gmr548 said:

Yeah, I take that Newsmax reporter with a massive grain of salt.

Yep. Even Biden isn’t dumb enough to completely piss off the most reliable voting bloc of your party by not endorsing your female black VP. Black women will love that! 

Posted
15 minutes ago, Texaus said:

Also, just like there will be a lot of silent dem votes from women because of the abortion issue, there will now be a lot of silent trump votes because of race.    

Trump already has all the racists on his side.

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
Posted
5 minutes ago, sidis said:

consider this my official exploratory committee effort...

would you assholes consider voting for me?

What is your position on nuking Oklahoma and giving College Station to North Korea?

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

Those of you saying a brokered convention would be better than Harris absolutely do not understand politics and are going to drive me to drink an unhealthy amount of alcohol.

Fucking a.

A mini primary or whatever the fuck is the absolute worst idea possible. If it isn’t Joe then it needs to be Kamala. Anything else has a zero percent chance of winning the election.

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

What is your position on nuking Oklahoma and giving College Station to North Korea?

Giving Louisiana a chunk of East Texas that includes College Station probably improves the intelligence of both states. 

Posted

There is zero chance, less than zero, that Biden would refuse to endorse his VP if he’s stepping aside. What an insanely stupid thing to say.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted
13 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I tend to think the vast majority of those voters are voting blue no matter who. By definition, the anti-Trump vote is driven by...Trump, not the other guy/gal.

Some, primarily men, will likely break off due to race and/or gender. I doubt you ultimately see a major white woman defection. This is a very different country for women than it was 8 years ago, as youl obviously well know, and the electorate has changed. The entire 18-25 cohort couldn't even vote in 2016. Most under 30's couldn't or didn't. Millions of older voters have died since then. Less white, on balance. There has not been a decades-long coordinated right wing media onslaught building hatred of Kamala Harris nationally like there was for Hillary Clinton.

you may be right about white suburban women. abortion changes everything.

I do think though there are moderate voting men who are undecided but only because they just haven't had the internal conversation but if they go to the ballot box they are never (again) trumpers. they may stay home because they don't even realize they think the quiet parts to themselves.

and you are correct about the HRC hate machine, but "not another black president" will light quickly. and then the question is will that increase turnout, maybe, maybe not. those may already be voting.

there's already a good chance some true racists are sitting out because of JDV.

who the fuck knows.

 

Posted
43 minutes ago, troph said:

Maybe its PTSD from HRC and post-Obama backlash, but god I hope we don't run into a racist/sexist anti-Harris buzz saw (among suburban white women and others) in swing states. The number of women who might vote for a man (Dem) but will simply say a woman (per se) isn't qualified to be POTUS might shock us all.

I mean, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.  

Obama won in 2008 against a goddamned war hero.  He won again against a very generic Republican.  And both times, he won pretty handily.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 despite (1) having the distinct handicap of being Hillary Clinton, which is to say a person against whom a GOP rage machine had been pointed for the previous quarter-century (into which, it must be said, she played perfectly), (2) running a spectacularly bad campaign which saw her completely ignore the three states that everyone knew to be the tipping-point states in the EC, and (3) having Jim Comey announce the reopening of an FBI investigation without any real justification and in contravention of Bureau guidelines just ten days before election day.

I'm not saying there aren't racists and misogynists in America.  But I am saying that there's strong evidence that they aren't an electoral majority.

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I mean, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.  

Obama won in 2008 against a goddamned war hero.  He won again against a very generic Republican.  And both times, he won pretty handily.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 despite (1) having the distinct handicap of being Hillary Clinton, which is to say a person against whom a GOP rage machine had been pointed for the previous quarter-century (into which, it must be said, she played perfectly), (2) running a spectacularly bad campaign which saw her completely ignore the three states that everyone knew to be the tipping-point states in the EC, and (3) having Jim Comey announce the reopening of an FBI investigation without any real justification and in contravention of Bureau guidelines just ten days before election day.

I'm not saying there aren't racists and misogynists in America.  But I am saying that there's strong evidence that they aren't an electoral majority.

non sequitur.

Trump was the backlash. Pulse nightclub was the backlash. El Paso was the backlash. Charlottesville was the backlash. All PTSD inducing. The fact that Obama was a wildly popular two term president unleashed a furry of backlash.

HRC - yes I agree with all you said, and white women still didn't vote for her like you would think they should have. How women (who vote Dem from time to time) wouldn't vote for a qualified woman is PTSD inducing for some of us. If sexism wasn't a factor, even with the headwinds you mention she wins. Again, PTSD inducing.

so again, your response wasn't a response.

 

 

Edited by troph
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
Just now, troph said:

you may be right about white suburban women. abortion changes everything.

I do think though there are moderate voting men who are undecided but only because they just haven't had the internal conversation but if they go to the ballot box they are never (again) trumpers. they may stay home because they don't even realize they think the quiet parts to themselves.

and you are correct about the HRC hate machine, but "not another black president" will light quickly. and then the question is will that increase turnout, maybe, maybe not. those may already be voting.

there's already a good chance some true racists are sitting out because of JDV.

who the fuck knows.

 

On the undecided bit I am with you. I think there's a small but nontrivial chunk of voters that will move from D to R, or break from undecided to R, over race/gender. They are mostly men and mostly older. That's why I've mentioned my base case is that Kamala Harris, should she be the nominee, might be a half step back in horse race polling in the blue wall states in the short term. Not enough out there to really say though. It's possible likely gains among women, POC, and youth overcome that.

I just don't buy a major defection from women given the widening split among men and women politically. In particular with younger voters.

"Not another black president!" will sadly be a thing but 99% of those people are already proudly supporting Trump.

Posted
21 minutes ago, mdmost said:

But if she's POTUS already? That's why Biden should just step down. Make her POTUS so it's not a foreign concept to have a woman president. 

Joe is not going to let his legacy be that he served less than one full term as president. He deserves no less. If he has the grace to step aside then he’s earned the respect of letting him serve out his term with dignity and honor.

People are stupid but they’re not so stupid that they couldn’t see through the stunt of Joe resigning to make Kamala president in an attempt to confer upon her some sort of artificial incumbency. And what message would it send if the first female president got there by having it handed to her and not by winning a presidential election? I don’t see the public responding well to that.  

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I mean, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.  

Obama won in 2008 against a goddamned war hero.  He won again against a very generic Republican.  And both times, he won pretty handily.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 despite (1) having the distinct handicap of being Hillary Clinton, which is to say a person against whom a GOP rage machine had been pointed for the previous quarter-century (into which, it must be said, she played perfectly), (2) running a spectacularly bad campaign which saw her completely ignore the three states that everyone knew to be the tipping-point states in the EC, and (3) having Jim Comey announce the reopening of an FBI investigation without any real justification and in contravention of Bureau guidelines just ten days before election day.

I'm not saying there aren't racists and misogynists in America.  But I am saying that there's strong evidence that they aren't an electoral majority.

I'd also add that there being a slice of racists or misogynists in the electorate is not an inherent reason to not go forward with a mixed race, female nominee. That's "letting the terrorists win" so to speak.

You go out in a sprint campaign that just got a shot in the arm, draw a contrast with Trump, and win over the ~10% of voters still undecided. If 30% of them break GOP due to a nonwhite woman on the ballot, you need to make sure you get the other 70%.

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
Just now, gmr548 said:

On the undecided bit I am with you. I think there's a small but nontrivial chunk of voters that will move from D to R, or break from undecided to R, over race/gender. They are mostly men and mostly older. That's why I've mentioned my base case is that Kamala Harris, should she be the nominee, might be a half step back in horse race polling in the blue wall states in the short term. Not enough out there to really say though. It's possible likely gains among women, POC, and youth overcome that.

I just don't buy a major defection from women given the widening split among men and women politically. In particular with younger voters.

"Not another black president!" will sadly be a thing but 99% of those people are already proudly supporting Trump.

agree on second paragraph, past results will not be predictive of future results because of Dobbs.

I think "not another black president" may suppress the vote. Keep in mind, not everyone is overtly racist. most racist shit is pretty well hidden, even to the person doing racist shit. so I'm talking about simply dampening enthusiasm and having more "stay at home voters" than those that will switch.

It's like the HRC shit - total sexist bullshit in some cases with "I don't know, I just don't like her." that will happen with Harris on race and gender.

Posted

Halperin is making shit up

Deadline Whitehouse reported today that Dems are facing an enthusiasm problem in the blue wall states. Dem parties in those states are having trouble getting folks to do phone banks, help with mail campaigns, knock on doors and are begging the national party for some sort of enthusiasm. 

This campaign needs a shot in the arm and that’s Harris/Shapiro

 

  • Hook 'Em 8
Posted
11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If someone is willing to vote for America’s Hitler over a black woman, sorry to tell you that they likely weren’t voting Dem anyhow 

Have you met white women before?

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 3
Posted
52 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Jesus. Yes, that's the point, the lack of national name recognition for Shapiro is not as big of a deal because he is well known and liked in Pennsylvania. You may have heard that the results in PA are somewhat important in this election given the Electoral College implications. To the extent that a VP moves the needle, and I don't think it's very much, that is a value add over the Governor of KY who is a JAG in the minds of undecided voters in swing state.

Then just say he's a "popular governor in a swing state".  Why would you add that he has "name recognition"?  Of course he has name recognition in the state he governs.  

Or did I miss the part where people on here were clamoring for a candidate who didn't have name recognition in his/her home state?

Either way, I wouldn't worry about PA... it's also Taylor Swift's home state and she's free between August 20th and the election.  Swifties activate!

Posted
1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Halperin is making shit up

Deadline Whitehouse reported today that Dems are facing an enthusiasm problem in the blue wall states. Dem parties in those states are having trouble getting folks to do phone banks, help with mail campaigns, knock on doors and are begging the national party for some sort of enthusiasm. 

This campaign needs a shot in the arm and that’s Harris/Shapiro

 

Maybe we could just airdrop/scatter cocaine over said states.  Raid Don Jr's stash, drop it over 6 states = victory.

Posted
1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

I'd also add that there being a slice of racists or misogynists in the electorate is not an inherent reason to not go forward with a mixed race, female nominee. That's "letting the terrorists win" so to speak.

You go out in a sprint campaign that just got a shot in the arm, draw a contrast with Trump, and win over the ~10% of voters still undecided. If 30% of them break GOP due to a nonwhite woman on the ballot, you need to make sure you get the other 70%.

troph household LOVES Kamala (I don't recall if she was on the super tuesday ballot in 2020 but if she was my wife voted for her, or would have), we are all in. I'm just talking politics.

to your second point, that is an observant angle there - instead of thinking about the downsides to timing, if you come out swinging hard and land some punches (and have a nice october surprise) then you might catch the otherside a bit and there's not enough time to cycle through to the next iteration.

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Joe is not going to let his legacy be that he served less than one full term as president. He deserves no less. If he has the grace to step aside then he’s earned the respect of letting him serve out his term with dignity and honor.

People are stupid but they’re not so stupid that they couldn’t see through the stunt of Joe resigning to make Kamala president in an attempt to confer upon her some sort of artificial incumbency. And what message would it send if the first female president got there by having it handed to her and not by winning a presidential election? I don’t see the public responding well to that.  

It'd also be a legitimate governance problem. Both houses of Congress have to approve a VP appointment. GOP House isn't appointing shit. So now we're operating with no VP, meaning among other things there's no one to break 50-50 ties on things like judicial votes that need to be passed the rest of the term, and Mike Johnson a heartbeat from the Presidency. And it's just a look of dysfunction. No thank you.

Biden and team can govern, Kamala can campaign full time. She'd need to focus on that anyway.

Edited by gmr548
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Have you met white women before?

if they swing (vote), they aren't reliable to a Harris ticket.

 

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I think like Pancho said, you can’t just be scared that people won’t vote for her bc she’s a black woman. This is not a usual election. Voters, especially the younger ones, have been screaming for a younger candidate. You have one. Roe is the biggest issue front and center. A woman can make that argument. 

You need the enthusiasm and the shot in the arm. An open primary isn’t going to do anything but cause hurt feelings. 

it's a foregone conclusion this is the only way. Harris/Shapiro, maybe Harris/Kelly.

Edited by troph
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, troph said:

troph household LOVES Kamala (I don't recall if she was on the super tuesday ballot in 2020 but if she was my wife voted for her, or would have), we are all in. I'm just talking politics.

to your second point, that is an observant angle there - instead of thinking about the downsides to timing, if you come out swinging hard and land some punches (and have a nice october surprise) then you might catch the otherside a bit and there's not enough time to cycle through to the next iteration.

Think of it this way:
 

I mean, for fuck's sake, a board of Texas fans should understand the damage a backup QB can inflict.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

Has there been polling on Harris with white women?

White women voted for Obama in large numbers, so why would they not vote for Harris?

Mostly has just felt like Doomerism at its finest 

Posted
38 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Not endorsing his own vice president would be completely shitty. The only good thing that comes out of that is if Whitmer, Newsom, and any other options all throw their support behind her and say they will not seek the nomination. 

I think the better move is to not endorse anyone and ‘let the people decide’. Just passing the torch I think is just as easy to alienate a constituency that you need to win the election 🤷🏼‍♂️

Posted
2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Has there been polling on Harris with white women?

White women voted for Obama in large numbers, so why would they not vote for Harris?

she has a vagina.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Has there been polling on Harris with white women?

White women voted for Obama in large numbers, so why would they not vote for Harris?

The same reasons they didn’t vote for Hillary.

Harris can certainly win without them though. To me the bigger issue for her to address is the rust belt, which is why Shapiro is the obvious choice for VP.

1 minute ago, troph said:

she has a vagina.

Troph gets it. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Mostly has just felt like Doomerism at its finest 

Must be.  Not white women specific, but looks like she does well with women in general, so that should ease some minds.

SEX__1_.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

I think the better move is to not endorse anyone and ‘let the people decide’. Just passing the torch I think is just as easy to alienate a constituency that you need to win the election 🤷🏼‍♂️

Endorsing isn’t saying dont have an open convention. No matter what, he should endorse Harris. Why the fuck wouldn’t he endorse his own VP? What does that say about her and how he thinks of her? 
 

“I think the people should choose, but of course I endorse Kamala Harris. She’s tremendous, and there’s a reason I picked her to be my VP. And I think having a woman lead us through the right’s attack against women’s rights isn’t just the right thing for America, it’s the necessary thing for America.”

 

it’s not fucking hard. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
  • Hook 'Em 7
  • Like 1
Posted
Just now, hobbes2702 said:

The same reasons they didn’t vote for Hillary.

I don't believe that.  Hillary was a flawed candidate, and her gender was not the reason she lost.

She lost because people wanted someone new, and she was lugging around 20+ years of baggage.

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Has there been polling on Harris with white women?

White women voted for Obama in large numbers, so why would they not vote for Harris?

Because they don’t want to fuck her.

This isn’t GenZ we’re talking about

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

I don't believe that.  Hillary was a flawed candidate, and her gender was not the reason she lost.

She lost because people wanted someone new, and she was lugging around 20+ years of baggage.

And most of that baggage was the right hating on her because she was a woman who tried to have a prominent place in politics. They haaaaaaaated that. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
20 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

@sidis 

You motherfukers better chill. 

You’re not going to be able to combat the kind of self loathing that can only come from growing up in Jasper and Lufkin. 

  • Haha 4
Posted
2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I don't believe that.  Hillary was a flawed candidate, and her gender was not the reason she lost.

She lost because people wanted someone new, and she was lugging around 20+ years of baggage.

And she ran a bad campaign and Comey threw a huge wrench into things 

  • Hook 'Em 4


×
×
  • Create New...