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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This is all true, but this new forecast is notable because it is a significant improvement in Democratic odds from his previous model runs.  The momentum here is clear and undeniable.

I didn't discuss trends and was careful not to do so. 

image.png.488f4024802b6ad352d974a2f56ec0bd.png

That's bullshit and should be ignored.

Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Wait, so now it's NOT about the truth of her statement?

It's about both the truth of the statement and the subject matter. If she's lying, that simply aggravates the problem.

She shouldn't ignore immigration, but making it the first issue in her speech and trying the same strategy that failed for Biden is a mistake. Instead of that mistake, she should have done what Beto did in 2018. You will still lose Texas but you'd overperform nationwide and in the swing states.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

He won't.  They won't.  They are insane extremist purity-testers.  Just like the actual fringe on the right that doesn't like Trump because he's not extreme-right enough.  They are coalition blackmailers, pure and simple.  Bending to them is a losing and wasteful strategy.  So don't waste time with it.

 

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It sounds like you’re doing the GOP’s work to make sure turnout is low. This is basically Kamala the Cop all over again. 

Guys, I'm shocked he found a way to bring Israel back up as THE wedge issue in Michigan. 

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Posted
20 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Do you think the border has no issues? We absolutely have a smuggling issue at the border? That's not only people looking for a better life. Some of it is people who are in forced labor situations. Some of it is drugs making it into the country. Do you think Eagle Pass or El Paso are enjoying being way stations for migrants? We have to clean up the entire system and make it where people don't have to rely on coyotes to get them into the country. She is more likely to bring that than anyone else. She is going to push for more technology and agents at the border to make the system better. You can't stick your head in the sand about the situation to our south. It is a problem and it needs fixing. 

"No issues" does not equal full-blown shit your pants when you live thousands of miles away crisis.

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Posted
12 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Yeah, no fucking way. I'm fully on the ledge with Brisket and even I know it's at least 50-50, which is still an abomination, but way more realistic than this bullshit.

I feel the same, but I think the Silver stuff is nice push back to remind us that we are in the middle of a hype train right now.  We have a bit of an over inflated sense of things.

Posted
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I thought you wanted to discuss Shapiro and the other issues listed on the poll you posted. Even on immigration, though, I don't think Kamala wins any voters by trying the same thing that didn't work for Joe Biden.

Admittedly, I am all over the place this morning.

Re: immigration - "the same thing that didn't work for Joe Biden" = winning the Rust Belt?

Re: Shapiro - as the article I posted asks: why is Shapiro the only target of said Uncommitted movement?

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

"No issues" does not equal full-blown shit your pants when you live thousands of miles away crisis.

Brother, people have been shitting their pants about things that don't affect them directly for centuries. It is absolutely an issue that mainstream Americans care about and one she is going to get absolutely hammered on. So yes, people who have fears about it, valid or not, want to know her position on it. 

Edited by mdmost
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Posted
5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Beshear and Walz are 1a and 1b for me right now, with Shapiro well behind (though I'd still be fine with him, personally).  I don't know this with any confidence, but I feel like Beshear can probably appeal to suburban/exurban and rural voters a little better than Walz can (tough I think Walz will be great at it, as far as Democrats can be). He's younger and that family photo could not possibly be more appealing to undecided voters who are somewhat racist but don't want to think of themselves as racist. Part of this is that I also think Beshear would also make a very strong future Presidential candidate, but he's term limited where he's at and running for Senate would be a step sideways at best. Walz seems like he rules, but he doesn't have the same political potential that Beshear has. But what the fuck do I know, I'd be extremely happy with either of them as the VP pick. 

That is 100% where I'm at regarding Beshear.  With the racial (not racist but racial) horse trading we have going on here, Beshear appeals directly the white suburban voters (women) and one reason is because he's good looking and has a good looking family.  (Let's be honest, looks matter here.  Harris is good looking and telegenic, too.)  These passive white voters will start paying attention in September and October and they'll see this:

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSFEFyLIGiJilUEFjQMkQ-

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Posted

My two cents re the immigration talk: I agree with chainsaw in that I liked Beto's messaging better and the Dems behavior toward the border under Biden has been Dumb Politics by giving in to GOP framing on the issue. But I just don't really have a problem with Kamala picking up the "Trump is the one who fucked up immigration reform" message at this point. The sad fact is that even many Democratic voters are pretty low-key racist when it comes to immigration (because Dems have fucked the messaging on this so badly for so long).  We've only got 100 days and we're not changing anyone's minds in that period. Saying "hey we had a solution and Trump fucked it up" and redirecting to other issues we're better on is the right politics right now. If we get a trifecta any immigration bill isn't going to be nearly as bad as what was agreed upon because Republicans won't have the leverage they had this year and it's known now that they don't believe in their own proposed solutions. 

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Posted
Just now, chainsaw said:

It's about both the truth of the statement and the subject matter. If she's lying, that simply aggravates the problem.

She shouldn't ignore immigration, but making it the first issue in her speech and trying the same strategy that failed for Biden is a mistake. Instead of that mistake, she should have done what Beto did in 2018. You will still lose Texas but you'd overperform nationwide and in the swing states.

It blows my fucking mind that you're just assuming she's lying about something easily provable in a campaign speach. That this is your default. Outside of the fact that this is such a specific, weird concern to conjure up out of thing air, you are absolutely demonstrating that incapable of arguing in good faith about her policy. 

She spoke for an hour and you're worried about what she led with. Listen, I'm not sure what your background is, but there are a LOT of books and classes given on how to perform for a crowd, and you start slow and build up to a crescendo so everyone is losing their shit and leaves the event amazed and overwhelmed by what they experinced. There's litearlly a science to it. So if she led with that, I'd argue that's great. Becuase she probably finished with Women's Rights. 

Biden won a presidency. Beto lost a Senate race. What failed for Biden was because people couldn't get over the fact they were watching a man in mental decline before their very eyes. That isn't Harris. 

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Screenshot_20240731_101527_Chrome.thumb.jpg.d0498e3875d7efcb777611cd16832c06.jpg

I've been told by an authoritative (or is that authoritarian?) source Christians don't vote.  So who cares?

Posted

This photo is from 2011 when she was CA AG

image.png.baf86cba0bdd35fbc9ba5ad9d9c128cb.png

I don't think it's too much of a stretch to think they also showed her the tunnels, and from there it's an easy leap to conclude that fences/walls aren't failsafe. If you're pissing your pants because you think she may have made up a trip to the border, I'm thinking you're better off posting on 4chan or somewhere. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

the "tough border bill" idea

it's not about being "tough on the border" you fucking twit.

It's about calling out Trump and the GOP for not being serious about solving their biggest issue. They had a deal to address it and TRUMP KILLED IT BECAUSE HE THOUGHT IT WOULD HURT HIM POLITICALLY.

She's pointing out that Trump and the GOP only exist to bitch and complain and not actually solve problems. It's powerful and effective for swing voters who are the ones who will decide this election.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Brother, people have been shitting their pants about things that don't affect them directly for centuries. It is absolutely an issue that mainstream Americans care about and one she is going to get absolutely hammered on. So yes, people who have fears about it, valid or not, want to know her position on it. 

Madam vice-president, what's your stance on the border?

Harris:  Don't hire illegals, stay away from drugs, don't engage with sex traffickers.  Next question.

Posted
46 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

And the thing is that if you're a conservative who doesn't want your kid exposed to what you consider degenerate content, this is exactly the type of thing you should tell your kid about something like this. That's boring and they'll just go "huh, ok" and forget about it. But if you get angry and start ranting about how it's filthy and they're not allowed to see it, what the fuck do you think they're going to want to do? 

Monitor your porn usage?

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Posted
Just now, The Dog said:

It's about calling out Trump and the GOP for not being serious about solving their biggest issue. They had a deal to address it and TRUMP KILLED IT BECAUSE HE THOUGHT IT WOULD HURT HIM POLITICALLY.

 

Also she doesn't HAVE to hold onto that promise to pass the same exact border bill, because if Dems win the House, Presidency and the Senate goes 50/50 (-Machin, Tester/Brown/Gallego/Baldwin/Slotkin/Casey/Rosen all win), then they can pull out the best parts of the bill and pass their own version.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Madam vice-president, what's your stance on the border?

Harris:  Don't hire illegals, stay away from drugs, don't engage with sex traffickers.  Next question.

And on the easy follow-up to that: Madam vice-president, what's your plan for the border?

Because no plan is not a plan just to appeal to a minority of progressives who apparently want nothing to be changed at the border.

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Posted

I'm for open borders (within reason, like check in at the border and check in every now and then), but I know it's not a winning position, even among most democrats and even some real liberals. I'm not a big fan of the Biden/Harris position on immigration, but I also know the political realities, and they are doing and saying what has to be done and said to win this election, which is of paramount importance.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Voters Generally Like Biden's Immigration Plan, but Few Think It's a  Pressing Concern

All of you who think immigration is a losing issue for her, please point out which of any of these measures is a bad thing to try to enact?

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Posted
3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

All of you who think immigration is a losing issue for her, please point out which of any of these measures is a bad thing to try to enact?

Democrats approve of every issue by 59% or higher.  BILL BAD! 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

it's not about being "tough on the border" you fucking twit.

It's about calling out Trump and the GOP for not being serious about solving their biggest issue. They had a deal to address it and TRUMP KILLED IT BECAUSE HE THOUGHT IT WOULD HURT HIM POLITICALLY.

She's pointing out that Trump and the GOP only exist to bitch and complain and not actually solve problems. It's powerful and effective for swing voters who are the ones who will decide this election.

The Office Thank You GIF

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Posted
1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Make sure you keep your precious spawn away from all museums then. They might catch glimpses of some naughty things 

So enchubben thought he saw a ball sack then became enchubbenned, and that France's fault?

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Posted
6 minutes ago, mdmost said:

And on the easy follow-up to that: Madam vice-president, what's your plan for the border?

Leave it up to the states, you know state's rights and all that shit.  It seems only one state has a problem so maybe they can take pointers from those that don't.

Posted
11 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Voters Generally Like Biden's Immigration Plan, but Few Think It's a  Pressing Concern

And to be clear, here's how to read that.

1) Most Americans support these sort of measures (at least the first half of them listed).

2) Of the measures that don't get majority support, the reason that is the case is because Republicans don't support them because they are not tough ENOUGH.

FFS, this is a good slate of policies to most Americans, and support would be even HIGHER if Republicans hadn't been fed a non-stop diet of "all brown people are bad" for the past 25 years.  The fringe who thinks "no, these are too draconian" is even less relevant than the GQP fringe that thinks any policy short of "shoot them all at the border" is pussy weakness.

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Posted
1 minute ago, MissingInAction said:

So enchubben thought he saw a ball sack then became enchubbenned, and that France's fault?

balzac?

france?

fault?

65bfe0e409f54a83a5eb1d996c1378a6.gif
 

FRENCH LITERATURE, PIERRE!!!!!!!!!

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Posted
6 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

My two cents re the immigration talk: I agree with chainsaw in that I liked Beto's messaging better and the Dems behavior toward the border under Biden has been Dumb Politics by giving in to GOP framing on the issue. But I just don't really have a problem with Kamala picking up the "Trump is the one who fucked up immigration reform" message at this point. The sad fact is that even many Democratic voters are pretty low-key racist when it comes to immigration (because Dems have fucked the messaging on this so badly for so long).  We've only got 100 days and we're not changing anyone's minds in that period. Saying "hey we had a solution and Trump fucked it up" and redirecting to other issues we're better on is the right politics right now. If we get a trifecta any immigration bill isn't going to be nearly as bad as what was agreed upon because Republicans won't have the leverage they had this year and it's known now that they don't believe in their own proposed solutions. 

I agree with pretty much all of that.  

This discussion started as whether a Kamala immigration commercial should be on-line or broadcast.  I said on-line, because I think it's a message that should be targeted, rather than a central theme, because it is divisive within the Democratic Party. I think Biden's approach was too Republican and I am sure more labor-oriented Dems would say it didn't go far enough.  I think Harris has to address it, but she needs to be extremely cautious.  

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Leave it up to the states, you know state's rights and all that shit.  It seems only one state has a problem so maybe they can take pointers from those that don't.

How do you think our stupid state and that broke dick fuckface at the top would treat the border and the people crossing it if he was allowed to? It is absolutely a federal issue and requires a federal response. And it's not just Texas. It's Arizona, New Mexico, California, and Florida. 

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Posted

As a card carrying member of team Walz, I'm coming around to the idea that Beshear is probably a better pick.  Walz unencumbered of being on the ticket can likely be a more galvanizing force to the electorate as a surrogate.  Beshear can effectively communicate Harris' message and doesn't need to have the juice Walz does as he's just supporting Harris.

I'd be fine with Shapiro as well, but I think like Walz, maybe being unencumbered also helps Shapiro help the campaign because he's got juice similar to Walz and maybe it's just better to let both of them loose, no limitations.

Beshear as VP and Walz and Shapiro as surrogates optimizes the value of all three of them.

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Posted
1 minute ago, mdmost said:

How do you think our stupid state and that broke dick fuckface at the top would treat the border and the people crossing it if he was allowed to? It is absolutely a federal issue and requires a federal response. And it's not just Texas. It's Arizona, New Mexico, California, and Florida. 

This.  I'm very against giving states leeway on the border.  It is a border between the United States and another country - therefore, it is a federal government issue.  Why would a Harris admin just give Abbott more leeway to be extra cruel??

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And to be clear, here's how to read that.

1) Most Americans support these sort of measures (at least the first half of them listed).

2) Of the measures that don't get majority support, the reason that is the case is because Republicans don't support them because they are not tough ENOUGH.

FFS, this is a good slate of policies to most Americans, and support would be even HIGHER if Republicans hadn't been fed a non-stop diet of "all brown people are bad" for the past 25 years.  The fringe who thinks "no, these are too draconian" is even less relevant than the GQP fringe that thinks any policy short of "shoot them all at the border" is pussy weakness.

Just so we are clear, what percentage do you consider the "fringe"?  25% of Democrats?  Am I getting that right? 

Posted
1 minute ago, mdmost said:

How do you think our stupid state and that broke dick fuckface at the top would treat the border and the people crossing it if he was allowed to? It is absolutely a federal issue and requires a federal response. And it's not just Texas. It's Arizona, New Mexico, California, and Florida. 

I’ll just go back to my original point. I don’t give a flying fuck about the border and think people that shit their pants over it are pussies that got hood-winked by good old fashioned propaganda.   I’m sure there’s some bad shit going on down there and those that live close to the border have reasons to be concerned. But some jackass in Iowa worrying about the border is just weird. 

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Posted
Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

I’ll just go back to my original point. I don’t give a flying fuck about the border and think people that shit their pants over it are pussies that got hood-winked by good old fashioned propaganda.   I’m sure there’s some bad shit going on down there and those that live close to the border have reasons to be concerned. But some jackass in Iowa worrying about the border is just weird. 

From what I've seen, the people who actually live in border cities seem to be the most liberal toward the border.

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Posted
28 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Saying "hey we had a solution and Trump fucked it up" and redirecting to other issues we're better on is the right politics right now

Fucking this.

We tried to fix the Border issues and he shitcanned it. Hammer it home. There are quotes aplenty attesting to this fact.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I’ll just go back to my original point. I don’t give a flying fuck about the border and think people that shit their pants over it are pussies that got hood-winked by good old fashioned propaganda.   I’m sure there’s some bad shit going on down there and those that live close to the border have reasons to be concerned. But some jackass in Iowa worrying about the border is just weird. 

I think pretty much everyone on this thread agrees with this. But it isn't relevant to the current discussion. It may be weird, but it is a concern for voters and has to be addressed. And from a governing standpoint it should be addressed because there are actual problems. And from a humanitarian perspective it should be addressed because the current situation creates adverse conditions for both those migrating and those already here. 

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I’ll just go back to my original point. I don’t give a flying fuck about the border and think people that shit their pants over it are pussies that got hood-winked by good old fashioned propaganda.   I’m sure there’s some bad shit going on down there and those that live close to the border have reasons to be concerned. But some jackass in Iowa worrying about the border is just weird. 

Cool. Well we've done next to nothing about fixing our immigration system in over 20 year so people can actually legally get into the country faster so I'm sure things will remain exactly the same and what she says makes zero difference. 

Edited by mdmost
Posted
54 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Screenshot_20240731_101527_Chrome.thumb.jpg.d0498e3875d7efcb777611cd16832c06.jpg

Why would the WH condemn another country's opening ceremony?  It wasn't anti-American. 

Imagine if Iran or Saudi Arabia were mad about our opening ceremony in 2028? I can tell you what the GOP response to that would be:

Meh Chelsea Peretti GIF by Brooklyn Nine-Nine

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Posted
3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Cool. Well we've done next to nothing about fixing our immigration system in over 20 year so people can actually legally get into the country faster so I'm sure things will remain exactly the same and what she says makes zero difference. 

Every time there's a good bipartisan solution (Bush's guest worker program, Obama's Comprehensive Immigration Reform, Biden's bipartisan border bill), the far right nukes it into oblivion. 

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, mdmost said:

How do you think our stupid state and that broke dick fuckface at the top would treat the border and the people crossing it if he was allowed to? It is absolutely a federal issue and requires a federal response. And it's not just Texas. It's Arizona, New Mexico, California, and Florida. 

Abbott hasn’t done shit for Texas’ northern or eastern borders. Those people just come over at will.  Some of them may be good people, I guess. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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