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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

PA

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Harris
47%
Trump
47%
Oliver
1%
Stein
0%

“In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will now vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris. Between 9% and 13% of Biden 2020 voters in the nine states polled now say they will vote for Trump, while between 4% and 10% of Trump 2020 voters now say they will vote for Kamala Harris.

Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in every state polled. Between 85% and 91% of 2020 Trump voters now say they will vote for Trump again in November, compared to between 79% and 88% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.

The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issues in each state.”

bb646a2e23975d75274cf4a41a22e4bf.gif

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Posted
1 minute ago, heso said:

Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in every state polled. Between 85% and 91% of 2020 Trump voters now say they will vote for Trump again in November, compared to between 79% and 88% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.

Episode 8 Nbc GIF by The Office

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Posted
25 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

This is somewhat depressing but shows why we have got to continue to work to turn Texas blue:


bafkreictcqcjpb5ltw4lkcl2cuh3kt5sil3old6bd6kborxlo3xynz57yq@jpeg

 

 

22 minutes ago, Chopper said:

I thought I'd have my exit strategy in place by now, if needed, but it's been delayed by unforeseen circumstances. As if we don't have enough to worry about now, the projected map for 2032 looks quite challenging without a major shift.

image.png.098a1f0c341d82554e43a86bea2819d1.png

I'm not sure I buy this as an obvious death knell. I don't think it's accounting for people fleeing Texas because of climate change, and Texas does continue to creep right as the olds die. Sure, folks are coming in, but a fuck ton of youngs are leaving and not returning. That should also create more housing for those fleeing blue wall states. But overall, shit doens't feel right. Old people are going to die in Florida, and we expect younger people are going to say "Yes, I need to move to the state that has 3 major hurricanes a year and insurance costs are insane."

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Posted (edited)

Full article on substack: https://thecycle.substack.com/p/the-gops-2024-achilles-heel

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The GOP's 2024 Achilles Heel

Why Trump's Take Over of the RNC May Cost Republicans Big in 2024

Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭

Sep 24, 2024

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When the news that the Trump family had turned the Republican National Committee into a Trump family business, I was ecstatic.

Why?

As my buddy Rick Wilson would tell you, everything Trump touches dies, and I knew the RNC would be no different.

Despite dropping her real last name (Romney) and being willing to help Trump and his associates conspire to submit fake Electors as part of Trump’s broader plot to stay in power, Trump dumped then-RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel and handed the keys to the entire Republican Party’s kingdom to Lara Trump, whose only qualification for the post is that she is part of the Trump family’s crime cabal.

Now, I need to explain exactly why I was so happy that day, and to do that, I need to go into some brief nerd background.

In my area of political science we spend a lot of time, I mean A LOT, measuring campaign activities to see if they affect voter turnout and vote choice. As campaigns first evolved into the TV era, and then into the digital age, these empirical studies have subjected all kinds of hypotheses about voter turnout and vote choice to empirical and experimental scrutiny.

I won’t bore you with that research history aside from to tell you that by far the things that affects turnout and vote choice (persuasion) the most is in-person GOTV (Get Out The Vote) field programs.

I knew that in 2020 when Democrats made the decision to suspend virtually all of its in-person field work due to the pandemic, which is why I immediately panicked.

Now, don’t get me wrong, suspending in person events in the midst of a global pandemic makes absolute sense, especially because the demographic most susceptible to death from COVID, the elderly, are also the vast majority of people that volunteer to knock on strangers’ doors to get them to vote.

However, since the Republican Party was no longer a political party, and now a cult, Republicans decided that since COVID was a hoax and not something that could ever happen to them.

Anti-science Republican governors reopened their states at the height of the pandemic and in the process killed and sickened many Republicans, who believed their lies and thus left themselves intentionally vulnerable to dying.

https://www.axios.com/2022/03/25/coronavirus-pandemics-politics-masks-vaccines-deaths

While Democrats transitioned to less effective, virtual field operations like texting and phone banking, Republicans kept running full steam ahead. They even resumed Trump’s rallies, each of which became super spreader events.

As soon as I realized we were going to unilaterally suspend our in-person field, I got a sick feeling in my gut because I suspected it would hurt Democratic Party performance, especially down ballot where interest in elections are much, much lower. Indeed, I flew right into the belly of the COVID beast, Texas, BEFORE there was a vaccine so I could make a personal appeal to Texas House and state legislative candidates to find a way to conduct in-person field.

As I watched 19 districts break for Biden but elect Trump cronies to the House as well as the underperformance Democrats suffered in state legislative races I learned a big lesson about the tremendous importance of in-person field and especially the powerful advantages that can fall to one party when the other party’s field game is absent or inept.

That brings us back to the present.

There is something you should know about the Republican National Committee. Until recently, it was the primary organizer for the entire Republican Party’s largely effective in-person field operation. Indeed, the RNC was so good at field that in the 2016 cycle they entirely handicapped the under-funded and chaotic mess that was the Trump campaign that cycle, essentially handicapping Trump from the ineptness of his own operation.

Now, some people would have looked at the RNC’s field operation and think, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” but that is not what happened once Lara Trump took over.

Still reeling from the mistakes Trump forced onto the RNC in 2020 with his lies about early voting and mail-in voting, Ronna McDaniel knew she had a big hill to climb to fix Trump’s damage. The results of the 2022 midterms proved that Trump’s election lies were having durable effects on Republican voters, who continued to shift away from early and absentee voting and towards Election Day only voting.

The reason the Republican Party invented absentee and early voting was because relying on a largely apathetic electorate to vote on one special day is bad strategy that produces sub-optimal outcomes.

It took a long time for Democrats to copy Republicans and begin to push early and absentee voting hard in states where they had legislative powers to make electoral reforms.

The Trump takeover of the RNC does seem to have undermined the GOP’s 2024 cycle in-person field operation. 👇

https://apnews.com/article/trump-political-action-committees-voter-canvassing-musk-0c1c095a6516b7bcbc80bf94fe0fe45a

As soon as the Republican National Committee became the Trump National Committee, Sheriff Lara, who again has 0 qualifications for her post other than slavish loyalty to her Orange Daddy, defunded two of the RNC’s key operations: early vote “harvesting” and minority outreach operations.

Instead of focusing on turning out the vote, the 2024 version of the RNC is mission focused on suppressing the vote, shifting both attention and resources to building infrastructure to contest the results off the 2024 cycle and building voter intimidation infrastructure, which they call their poll watchers program.

So, if the RNC has divested from in-person field organizing, who exactly is running the GOP’s field outreach this cycle?

The answer to that should fill you with glee because it is, apparently, Elon Musk’s superPAC and right wing grifter and Turning Point USA president Charlie Kirk.

Yes, Republicans have turned their once enviable organizing duties out to the private sector and to people with no experience with field organization, the most logistically complex elements of the modern campaign.

Meanwhile, over at the Democratic National Committee Chair Harrison has built and funded what will be, by far, the most extensive and comprehensive national field program in the party’s history.

Howard Dean dreamed about a 50 state vision for the DNC. Jaime Harrison actually built it.

Its real. Its here. And its about to face off against an RNC that has been gutted and turned into a piggy bank for Donald Trump.

I’ll keep you posted.

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SFHaine

20 hrs ago

Thanks so much!!

Even though you and Simon Rosenberg constantly remind me to “ worry less and do more” , the recent NY Times poll has EVERYONE depressed again … even though I’m pretty sure new voter registrants haven’t been included in the LV models —yet — ( & certainly not the registered voter models).

And if one more (male) pundit says “ Dobbs is #9 on the important list” I know women are not just engaged - they’re enraged!!

Thanks!

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Mark Lee Witten

Mark Lee Witten

7 hrs ago

I live in battleground AZ and have been visited at my home twice by Harris volunteers. I have not seen anyone from Traitor Trump’s side!

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ETA tl;dr - The Trumps eliminated the GOP's very effective in-person field organization and outsourced it to Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk's organizations while the Democrats have built a massive 50-state field organization:

 

Edited by The Dog
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Posted
1 minute ago, heso said:

The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled.

Great! I'm sure everyone is excited at how Biden/Harris turned around the absolute dumpster fire left from the Trump administration. Oh what's that....?

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

And if they think Biden has enabled Netanyahu then wait until six months into a Trump presidency.  Gaza will be completely gone.

 It's a smart real estate move. Runoff your nig blacks then build high rise condos. No brainer. Should work in Gaza for his brother from another mother.

I fucking hate Netanyahu.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

I'm not sure I buy this as an obvious death knell. I don't think it's accounting for people fleeing Texas because of climate change, and Texas does continue to creep right as the olds die. Sure, folks are coming in, but a fuck ton of youngs are leaving and not returning. That should also create more housing for those fleeing blue wall states. But overall, shit doens't feel right. Old people are going to die in Florida, and we expect younger people are going to say "Yes, I need to move to the state that has 3 major hurricanes a year and insurance costs are insane."

aren't you a ray of sunshine. 🫶

Posted
11 minutes ago, South Austin said:

You had sex with that lady, didn't you?

Why are you the past tense here?

7 minutes ago, heso said:

PA

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Harris
47%
Trump
47%
Oliver
1%
Stein
0%

“In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will now vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris. Between 9% and 13% of Biden 2020 voters in the nine states polled now say they will vote for Trump, while between 4% and 10% of Trump 2020 voters now say they will vote for Kamala Harris.

Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in every state polled. Between 85% and 91% of 2020 Trump voters now say they will vote for Trump again in November, compared to between 79% and 88% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.

The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issues in each state.”

bb646a2e23975d75274cf4a41a22e4bf.gif

Fucking PA.

2 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

aren't you a ray of sunshine. 🫶

I mean, comparied to the original post, yeah, I feel like I'm pretty sunny on that topic. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

I'm not sure I buy this as an obvious death knell. I don't think it's accounting for people fleeing Texas because of climate change, and Texas does continue to creep right as the olds die. Sure, folks are coming in, but a fuck ton of youngs are leaving and not returning. That should also create more housing for those fleeing blue wall states. But overall, shit doens't feel right. Old people are going to die in Florida, and we expect younger people are going to say "Yes, I need to move to the state that has 3 major hurricanes a year and insurance costs are insane."

The olds will keep moving to FL because it's ingrained into their brains to do that.  Although, three hurricanes per year and $2K per month just in home insurance might change that.  Keep in mind those olds move from the NE and Midwest and lean heavily Republican, which just makes those areas more Democratic.  

I do think there will be long term migration patterns out of states that are blast furnaces.  

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Posted

I wouldn’t start worrying about 2032 and the electoral college. States like TX and FL are circling the drain in many ways. Not all but many. People are starting to leave FL because home ownership costs are too high partially due to DeSantis’ poor policies. Maybe someday in Texas our voters will realize how badly the state has been managed in the last 25 years under GOP leadership.

and as always, the parties and platforms will shift to find an approximate 50/50 equilibrium.

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Posted
Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

The olds will keep moving to FL because it's ingrained into their brains to do that.  Although, three hurricanes per year and $2K per month just in home insurance might change that.  Keep in mind those olds move from the NE and Midwest and lean heavily Republican, which just makes those areas more Democratic.  

I do think there will be long term migration patterns out of states that are blast furnaces.  

Old people's finances aren't what they used to be, dude. The late 40's and 50 year olds looking to retire in 10 years aren't going to be in the same financial position as the olds who've been in florida for 20-30 years now, imo. And the ones with the money likely will be NY types, so probably Democrats. Which was the case before Trump Brain infected this sect of boomers. Anyway, it's one thing to be a frog in boiling water the last 10 years as FL insurance has gone apeshit, but it's another to look at your finances and say "Yes, I can afford 4k a month in expesnes that aren't a mortgage or rent in retirement." 

 

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Chopper said:

I thought I'd have my exit strategy in place by now, if needed, but it's been delayed by unforeseen circumstances. As if we don't have enough to worry about now, the projected map for 2032 looks quite challenging without a major shift.

image.png.098a1f0c341d82554e43a86bea2819d1.png

Yeah, but that blue Texas sure looks pretty, doesn’t it?  Imagine if we can flip it…

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Posted
Just now, LCHorn said:

Yeah, but that blue Texas sure looks pretty, doesn’t it?  Imagine if we can flip it…

We can and we will, as old people die off and the bulk of the growth happens in suburban counties. I'm comfortable saying Williamson County will never go red again. We'll get there soon with Tarrant, Fort Bend, and Hays.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Old people's finances aren't what they used to be, dude. The late 40's and 50 year olds looking to retire in 10 years aren't going to be in the same financial position as the olds who've been in florida for 20-30 years now, imo. And the ones with the money likely will be NY types, so probably Democrats. Which was the case before Trump Brain infected this sect of boomers. Anyway, it's one thing to be a frog in boiling water the last 10 years as FL insurance has gone apeshit, but it's another to look at your finances and say "Yes, I can afford 4k a month in expesnes that aren't a mortgage or rent in retirement." 

 

I think you're underrating the sheer number of people who own homes in high cost areas who are going to retire in the next 10-15 years.  They might be upper middle class types but they'll have +$1M in home equity and they're moving somewhere.  You are right about Florida, though.  The whole premise of retiring there was that it was cheap to buy but that's not cheap and then you add in the insurance and/or POA dues you're seeing.

I'm down on FL's immediate future, actually.

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Posted

Only way the GOP gets back the suburbs is if they completely reinvent themselves and purge the racism in the same way that the Dems did, costing them the south for a generation (in truth it has cost them the south for much longer)

Posted
3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

so a +2 shift to Trump for 2020 voters? That's concerning. 

That really does not smell right to me. 

That's just my gut talking.  And the 2 cups of coffee

Season 2 GIF by The Simpsons

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I think you're underrating the sheer number of people who own homes in high cost areas who are going to retire in the next 10-15 years.  They might be upper middle class types but they'll have +$1M in home equity and they're moving somewhere.  You are right about Florida, though.  The whole premise of retiring there was that it was cheap to buy but that's not cheap and then you add in the insurance and/or POA dues you're seeing.

I'm down on FL's immediate future, actually.

Well, if you have a million dollar's in equity, where would you buy to retire? Certainly not hot AF Texas? Not when you're not moving here for work and cheap housing. To that end, sure I see some of the SEC states like TN, NC, GA, and maybe even WVU, which I've discussed before, being attractive options. But I still think so would the blue wall states, the Pacific NW, etc. That's why I raise my eyebrow at that whole chart. 

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Posted
52 minutes ago, quigley said:

There's a correlation, but it's not as strong as those with education think it is.

But if an intelligent person is never taught how to think critically, what’s the difference between them and a dumb person?

Posted
52 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

There is no way a reasonable electorate could objectively look at these two candidates and choose Trump 

So, the fact that the polling is this close tells me that: 

A. The polling is WAY out of line with reality,

B  American democracy is a failing/failed experiment,

C. Both A & B

I'll be in my bunker.

B2. 40% of the electorate is a heavily-armed hive-mind under the control of some historically awful people who are just getting warmed up...

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Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, if you have a million dollar's in equity, where would you buy to retire? Certainly not hot AF Texas? Not when you're not moving here for work and cheap housing. To that end, sure I see some of the SEC states like TN, NC, GA, and maybe even WVU, which I've discussed before, being attractive options. But I still think so would the blue wall states, the Pacific NW, etc. That's why I raise my eyebrow at that whole chart. 

Tennessee is apparently taking in a lot of the California "political refugees" - cheaper than TX/FL and better weather than TX/FL/AZ. 

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Posted

For the olds on this board, just know that Chappell Roan is very, very popular right now with the youngs.

She is absolutely getting roasted for her “both sides” comments and tried to clean it up yesterday and is getting more roasted. The young ones aren’t having this “both sides” horseshit so good on them.

You can’t poll them very well, but every once in a while there’s something that shows you where their minds are.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

For the olds on this board, just know that Chappell Roan is very, very popular right now with the youngs.

She is absolutely getting roasted for her “both sides” comments and tried to clean it up yesterday and is getting more roasted. The young ones aren’t having this “both sides” horseshit so good on them.

You can’t poll them very well, but every once in a while there’s something that shows you where their minds are.

That girl needs a PR team, badly.  Or a new one, because she really dropped the ball.  Even my friends who are all diehard Dems were discussing her on Saturday night and really not happy with her saying LGBT/trans rights are so fucking important and then dropped a "both sides" and "not endorsing" right after.

Like girl, what? 

These "both sides" people have to realize it's Harris or Trump.  There is no third option that's going to win.  No one is asking her to campaign with Harris or love every single one of her policies, especially because - shocking, I know - she's a 26 year old whose letting Israel/Gaza influence her decision more than LGBT rights at home. 

Harris is not perfect.

Trump is fucking evil. 

Just say "I will be voting for Kamala because of her stance on LGBT issues and democracy, even if I do not agree on her Israel stance, and Trump will be worse on every one of those issues and more" 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Tennessee is apparently taking in a lot of the California "political refugees" - cheaper than TX/FL and better weather than TX/FL/AZ. 

Sure. For now. But that's not really what we were talking about, we were talking about people with the means to retire in 10-15 years after a ton of Boomers die. 

I won't lie, Tenn would be high on my list of places to retire, except for its fucking politics. I'll be eyeballing that shit for the next 10 years. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Some movement

 

 

Let me summarize the entire country right now:

"There seems to be real momentum to the left in almost every state in the country, even ruby red ones...except PA."

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Posted
26 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, if you have a million dollar's in equity, where would you buy to retire? Certainly not hot AF Texas? Not when you're not moving here for work and cheap housing. To that end, sure I see some of the SEC states like TN, NC, GA, and maybe even WVU, which I've discussed before, being attractive options. But I still think so would the blue wall states, the Pacific NW, etc. That's why I raise my eyebrow at that whole chart. 

Yeah, those middle climate states, particularly NC, TN, and GA.  TX will still see in influx due to people moving for jobs but FL has no real economy to speak of.  

Posted
On 9/24/2024 at 11:33 AM, closetohumping said:

image.thumb.png.e296433ec4eef51986f9865ab94522a7.png

Teddy and Lincoln were both avid wrestlers so it looks they are about to fuck Trump up.

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Posted
17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Sure. For now. But that's not really what we were talking about, we were talking about people with the means to retire in 10-15 years after a ton of Boomers die. 

I won't lie, Tenn would be high on my list of places to retire, except for its fucking politics. I'll be eyeballing that shit for the next 10 years. 

I had Nashville on my short list of places to retire.  (I had a thread about it in on the travel board.)  Lots of positives but the main negatives were state politics.  While Nashville proper is fine, the suburbs are becoming the capital of MAGAstan and Nashville isn't big enough to balance out the state like Atlanta or Phoenix.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, those middle climate states, particularly NC, TN, and GA.  TX will still see in influx due to people moving for jobs but FL has no real economy to speak of.  

NC on our list of potential landing spots in 5-10 years, before the kids get into middle/high school.

Posted
Just now, hookem2010 said:

NC on our list of potential landing spots in 5-10 years, before the kids get into middle/high school.

Asheville currently at the top of our fantasy retirement list.  

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, those middle climate states, particularly NC, TN, and GA.  TX will still see in influx due to people moving for jobs but FL has no real economy to speak of.  

I'm not sure Texas is going to have an influx of people for jobs. Texas's "Pro Business" climate is a fucking house of cards. They're going to have a hard time attracting young, educated women to work here, and as a result companies are going to stop expanding or relocating here. Climate change isn't going to do O&G any fucking favors, either. 

And we haven't even gotten to Texas's fucking pending water crisis, which people are just now realizing along the Colorado river that it's a Right Now problem, not a "down the line" problem. 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Xminus6 said:

I'm not sure how you can be Extremely Motivated but have No Candidate Choice. 

"I am extremely motivated to vote against Trump and Harris!"

Gives major Anastasis vibes.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I do note that, while 2022 is not 2020, on this date in 2022, Fetterman was leading 49-45 in the polling average, and he ultimately won by 5.  But somehow the polling narrowed to a tie a month later when engagement was the highest and then Oz up 0.3 pre-Election Day. 

On this date in 2022, Kelly was up 6 points in the average, and ultimately won by 5.  BUT AGAIN - polling narrowed to a statistical tie on November 7 and Masters up 0.3 pre-Election Day.  

On this date in 2022, Laxalt was up 1.2 and OH LOOK, it dropped into a statistical tie a month later, with Laxalt up 2.7 pre-Election Day.  CCM won by 0.8

Kansas abortion referendum - it's 50/50!!!!! It lost by 18 points. 

It's just fucking clicks and engagement.  A tied or close race close to the election = more clicks, more eyeballs, more revenue, more TV time. 

It's a compelling argument, and hardly unbelievable. But I do ask this question honestly; if that was entirely true, then why are we not seeing similar behavior in the polling in all the other swing states? 

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It's a compelling argument, and hardly unbelievable. But I do ask this question honestly; if that was entirely true, then why are we not seeing similar behavior in the polling in all the other swing states? 

I'm not sure what you mean here - every single swing state is somehow Harris +2 to Trump +2.   

Michigan - Harris +1, +2, +1, Harris +8, Harris +5, Harris +3 
Wisconsin - tie, Trump +2, Harris +7, Harris +6, Harris +6, Harris +1, Harris +3 
North Carolina - Harris +1, Trump +2, tie, Trump +1, tie, Trump +4 Harris +2
Georgia - Harris +2, Trump +3, Trump +2, tie, Trump +2, Trump +1 
Arizona - Trump +5, tie, Trump +1, Harris +1, Harris +2, Trump +2

It's like throwing a red dart and a blue dart at a board that says +2/3, +1, tie and publishing a poll.  Because those results keep driving the conversation

Edited by Js1
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Posted
45 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

We can and we will, as old people die off and the bulk of the growth happens in suburban counties. I'm comfortable saying Williamson County will never go red again. We'll get there soon with Tarrant, Fort Bend, and Hays.

In the 2020 presidential election Hays went Biden by 11%.  Williamson went Biden by 2.3%. Hopefully, Williamson will get bluer, but Hays is much bluer currently.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I'm not sure what you mean here - every single swing state is somehow Harris +2 to Trump +2.   

Michigan - Harris +1, +2, +1, Harris +8, Harris +5, Harris +3 
Wisconsin - tie, Trump +2, Harris +7, Harris +6, Harris +6, Harris +1, Harris +3 
North Carolina - Harris +1, Trump +2, tie, Trump +1, tie, Trump +4 Harris +2
Georgia - Harris +2, Trump +3, Trump +2, tie, Trump +2, Trump +1 
Arizona - Trump +5, tie, Trump +1, Harris +1, Harris +2, Trump +2

It's like throwing a red dart and a blue dart at a board that says +2/3, +1, tie and publishing a poll 

What I meant, specifically, was that in other swing states we've seen shifts and movements towards Harris. PA hasn't moved a lick.  The polls you've listed above, they move around, there's outliers, but it's still a general trend. Even if it's a trend and then settles. 

But most of the stuff coming out at PA is literally at 50/50, over and over. 

Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, F250 said:

Teddy and Lincoln were both avid wrestlers so it looks they are about to fuck Trump up.

I'd love to see Washington have a go at this clown.

Lincoln could just about literally tear him limb from limb. Lincoln could take the end of an axe's handle in his hand then hold it, with axe head at the other end, horizontally from his shoulder. One of the notes from his autopsy reveal just how extraordinarily large and developed his arms were. 

Teddy would cuff him around the room until Trump cried.

Edited by RomaVicta
coherence
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Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

What I meant, specifically, was that in other swing states we've seen shifts and movements towards Harris. PA hasn't moved a lick.  The polls you've listed above, they move around, there's outliers, but it's still a general trend. Even if it's a trend and then settles. 

But most of the stuff coming out at PA is literally at 50/50, over and over. 

Are you telling me that our country is in the hands of Steelers and eagles fans?

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'm not sure what you mean here - every single swing state is somehow Harris +2 to Trump +2.   

Michigan - Harris +1, +2, +1, Harris +8, Harris +5, Harris +3 
Wisconsin - tie, Trump +2, Harris +7, Harris +6, Harris +6, Harris +1, Harris +3 
North Carolina - Harris +1, Trump +2, tie, Trump +1, tie, Trump +4 Harris +2
Georgia - Harris +2, Trump +3, Trump +2, tie, Trump +2, Trump +1 
Arizona - Trump +5, tie, Trump +1, Harris +1, Harris +2, Trump +2

It's like throwing a red dart and a blue dart at a board that says +2/3, +1, tie and publishing a poll.  Because those results keep driving the conversation

Also, polling increasingly is a measure of who is answering their cell phone, and pollsters then have to eyeball/back of the napkin that data into how the electorate might vote in November. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

In the 2020 presidential election Hays went Biden by 11%.  Williamson went Biden by 2.3%. Hopefully, Williamson will get bluer, but Hays is much bluer currently.

From my lawyer perspective, Hays County is much bluer because of all the down-ballot local races the Dems won in 2022, including a sweep of the judiciary. 

Sure, Biden won by a bit in Wilco.  But as far as I know the local officials are all still blood red.  And there are three incumbent Republican district judges up for re-election in November, and it doesn't look like any of them even drew a Democratic challenger.  

So I'd actually still call Wilco a red county, but one that actually held its nose and voted for Biden because Trump was awful enough to make them do it.  They may do it again, but I don't think the local offices are swinging blue any time soon.

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

What I meant, specifically, was that in other swing states we've seen shifts and movements towards Harris. PA hasn't moved a lick.  The polls you've listed above, they move around, there's outliers, but it's still a general trend. Even if it's a trend and then settles. 

But most of the stuff coming out at PA is literally at 50/50, over and over. 

Have you noticed (maybe it's just me?) that as soon as 2-3 polls come out showing Harris pulling away a tiny bit in PA, a bunch of polls come out tied or Trump leading? 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Trump hasn't led a PA poll in 538's polls in 10 days. 6 polls with Harris ahead, 4 ties.  Trump has never led the 538 average in PA against Harris. 

RCP and Nate Silver are probably the most bullish in Trump's favor and neither of them have Trump leading in PA.

Edited by Js1
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