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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I swear if this did happen, his percentage of black voters would probably triple.  Because nothing about that fat piece of shit makes sense. 

North Carolina Robinson GIF

Posted
I swear if this did happen, his percentage of black voters would probably triple.  Because nothing about that fat piece of shit makes sense. 

NY Times/CNN: “Raw, powerful, refreshing language from the Republican nominee. Will Harris be able to respond before Election Day?”
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Posted
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Joshua Smithley is PA's version of Jon Ralston.  His estimate is Dems need a 390,000 vote firewall (solely Dem returns - Rep returns, not including indies) to feel good heading into Election Day on the presidential side and 350,000 to feel good on the Senate side.  Obviously if the indies break 55-45 for Harris, it builds the firewall a little more, but you don't want to project independents like that. 

 

 

I'm a little sleep deprived, am I reading this right or did the firewall just grow? The tweet says "raw new drop" But it looks to me like their firewall grew? Explain it to me like I'm 5.

Posted
10 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

This is a flawed concept. Before Trump got permanently suspended from Twitter, he had like 100 million followers. He still has over 91 million followers on Twitter, but they de-platformed him. Just becuase he's a narcissist and only posts on Truth Social, doesn't mean that his message isn't attractive to vast amounts of people, or that or that his message isn't getting to massive amounts of people. It just means Truth Social is small. 

If he had "low ratings" he wouldn't be a lock for 46% of the electorate. 

Twitter, the place overrun with bots, is a poor metric for popularity these days. That he had 100 million followers and nobody followed him to truth social is precisely my point, he doesn't have an audience, he has a crowd already gathered that he was speaking to.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

I'm a little sleep deprived, am I reading this right or did the firewall just grow? The tweet says "raw new drop" But it looks to me like their firewall grew? Explain it to me like I'm 5.

I believe it shows how many ballots are returned by each group D/R/I. And Ds outnumbered Rs by 30k

Edited by hookem2010
Posted
1 minute ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

I'm a little sleep deprived, am I reading this right or did the firewall just grow? The tweet says "raw new drop" But it looks to me like their firewall grew? Explain it to me like I'm 5.

It grew about 30k votes from yesterday. It was def a huge dump of votes. Like he said, it may not be sustainable but we’ve been seeing a good 10-15k net per day before this. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

I'm a little sleep deprived, am I reading this right or did the firewall just grow? The tweet says "raw new drop" But it looks to me like their firewall grew? Explain it to me like I'm 5.

Yes, it grew a lot. 

2 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

Twitter, the place overrun with bots, is a poor metric for popularity these days. That he had 100 million followers and nobody followed him to truth social is precisely my point, he doesn't have an audience, he has a crowd already gathered that he was speaking to.

Oh for fuck's sake, man. He hasn't posted in over 4 years there or so and he's still a top 5 or top 10 follow, irrespective of fucking bots or not. He has almost as many follows as Taylor swift. I can't believe you're saying a guy who is going to get 70+ million votes has no appeal and no audience. I fucking wish that were the case. 

No one followed him to Truth Social beause Truth social has NO ONE ELSE THERE. No other personalities, celebritires, experts, news agencies, etc. You can rave all you want about a specific burger, at a specific restaurant, but if that chef moves 2 hours away and offers only that one burger as the dish in his new location, people aren't going to make the effort to fucking follow that preson in massive numbers. 

Posted
20 minutes ago, Foosters said:

The dem party or candidates only have to state that they disagree with the court findings and are open to future laws to address it. Disagreeing with a court order and enforcing that order are not at odds with one another.

I'm not arguing the issue itself but rather the political reality of needing to win elections.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

I'm a little sleep deprived, am I reading this right or did the firewall just grow? The tweet says "raw new drop" But it looks to me like their firewall grew? Explain it to me like I'm 5.

"raw net" is the thing that "dropped" (meaning, the information was published, "taylor swift album just dropped" and not meaning that it decreased). It's stupid slang. But the "raw net" actually increased ("jumped") for Dems.

Posted
8 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

I believe it shows how many ballots are returned by each group D/R/I. And Ds outnumbered Rs by 30k

 

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It grew about 30k votes from yesterday. It was def a huge dump of votes. Like he said, it may not be sustainable but we’ve been seeing a good 10-15k net per day before this. 

appreciate it, that's what I thought but the wording kinda threw me off, cause drop can mean "incoming" or also "going down."

Posted
Just now, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

 

appreciate it, that's what I thought but the wording kinda threw me off, cause drop can mean "incoming" or also "going down."

It was a drop of new ballots. I believe it only updates once a day so he reports on it in the morning 

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Posted
57 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

And I have yet to see anyone mention that damn near every single key election country-wide since 2021 has had actual results to the left of the polls.  I get that this is an election year, but to completely ignore that reality is wild.

Ever since Dobbs.  It's like it mattered or something.

What pisses me off is that every single pollster knows this yet people like Frank Luntz are back again telling us how this is 50/50 despite Harris leading and then factoring in the hidden Dobbs vote.  Abortion doesn't show up in polling because people are lying about it.  There's no other explanation.

Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

No one followed him to Truth Social beause Truth social has NO ONE ELSE THERE

THAT'S THE FUCKING POINT. THE ENTIRE POINT OF TRUTH SOCIAL WAS DONALD TRUMP SAYING "FUCK IT, I'LL BUILD MY OWN AND EVERYONE WILL FOLLOW" AND NOBODY FOLLOWED. DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T BRING IN THE RATINGS.

Edited by WelfareBuysMyWeed
Posted

The worst part is even when someone is personally negatively affected by republican policies, most of the time they don't change how they vote. Hell, I barely trust that Victoria will vote Harris. For every Victoria there's probably three others who are still going to vote republican. Case in point: Uvalde.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Ever since Dobbs.  It's like it mattered or something.

What pisses me off is that every single pollster knows this yet people like Frank Luntz are back again telling us how this is 50/50 despite Harris leading and then factoring in the hidden Dobbs vote.  Abortion doesn't show up in polling because people are lying about it.  There's no other explanation.

Republicans and their media and polling mouthpieces have been telling us for 2 years that abortion doesn’t matter and then an election happens and they go all shocked pikachu face 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Republicans and their media and polling mouthpieces have been telling us for 2 years that abortion doesn’t matter and then an election happens and they go all shocked pikachu face 

What's infuriating about Frank Luntz is he's a good pollster and knows better.  He was wrong in 22, admitted he was wrong, and admitted why.  Now here he is again with the 50/50 narrative.  Gotta stay on TV, bills to pay, etc.....

Posted

repeated claims on here that media promotes 50-50 as it generates clicks.  biggest evidence against that: 2016 and 2020 were not promoted as 50-50s, even though they probably should have been.  Clinton has 71% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Biden has 89% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

why did these pundits suddenly realize 50-50 generates more clicks?  biden was never close to 50-50 the whole year, clinton pinched down toward 50-50 twice, but spent much more time in the 75% range.

Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

I'm so sorry for this woman, but honestly this line:

“That is the sole reason that I’m voting for her,” Victoria said. “I’m 30 years old going through this.”

Honestly? Kinda fuck her for that. That's the ONLY reason you found to not vote for trump, because it personally affected you? Well my brown ass has been catching racist splatter from trump's rifle since 2016. Sorry you had to lose a baby before you realized the orange dipshit was hurting people, but perhaps you should take from this that shit that sucks doesn't just suck for you. There are so, so many reasons to not vote for trump if you give just even a tiny shit about anybody else who isn't you.

Yeah it sucks that so many people are like this, but that's how it is. And if we want to win and enact policies that we like, we need to win a bunch of votes from voters like this. The good news is it can be done without actually substantively watering down the policies we champion out of a misguided effort at triangulation, because these voters don't know shit about policy. They want someone who they think will care about them and they want to support candidates and policies they think are popular. It's really that simple. 

Edited by wildcat09
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Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Agreeing to gender affirmation surgery for prisoners or govt-issued insured recipients, is a loser issue for Dems. Most Americans struggle with this issue and believe it's not a life saving treatment especially for prisoners. Dems should be clear that tax dollars won't go to federal prisoners for these treatments.

 

Dems don’t need to be “clear” about their position on this because no one is talking about it. 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Dems don’t need to be “clear” about their position on this because no one is talking about it. 

THIS. Dems do not have to respond to every fucking weird accusation Trump makes.  Don't give it life. 

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Ever since Dobbs.  It's like it mattered or something.

What pisses me off is that every single pollster knows this yet people like Frank Luntz are back again telling us how this is 50/50 despite Harris leading and then factoring in the hidden Dobbs vote.  Abortion doesn't show up in polling because people are lying about it.  There's no other explanation.

There are other explanations. We certainly hope that there is a “hidden Dobbs vote,” and there is reason to believe that, but we don’t know it.
Trump support could also be undercounted by 3, which has also been true in the past.
Also - polling has been off by an average of 2-3pts over the last five presidential elections. 
If Harris gets a normal miss in her favor in the swing states (more or less consistent with post Dobbs results), she wins 312-350 EVs, and puts another 20-30 
If Trump gets a normal miss in his favor (which has been historically the case) he gets around 300.

And of course if the polls are exactly correct right now she would win 279 EVs, but then it’s a jump ball and there are certification fights. 

No matter what happens on Election Day, it’s going to be pretty grim between 11/5 and mid February. But the important thing for Democrats right now is to stop fretting about why Trump support isn’t collapsing and focus on GOTV. He’s more likely to be behind than ahead right now and I’d rather be in our shoes than theirs.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The last fucking thing Dems need to do is let Trump dictate the conversation. Jesus Christ, Eddie.

Yeah, I don't want Harris to be parsing out how much she supports human rights for trans people or prisoners. 1) she is (hopefully) more progressive than the average voter 2) it's not really something I want to see her negotiate on, 3)the average voter will eventually change, 4) for anyone for which it is a deal breaker, they will have dozens of other excuses to not vote for her.  Nobody is looking at their ballot saying "hm, economy, abortion, and prisoner sex changes - those are my issues." 

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Posted

CNN has now pivoted October 23 to dueling town halls instead of a debate, since Trump has said no more.

Harris said yes, Trump hasn't responded

New YorkCNN — 

With former President Donald Trump ruling out any more presidential debates between now and Election Day, CNN shifting course Thursday and invited both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris to participate in town hall events with voters.

Harris immediately accepted the network’s invitation.

“Trump may want to hide from the voters, but Vice President Harris welcomes the opportunity to share her vision for a New Way Forward for the country. She is happy to accept CNN’s invitation for a live, televised town hall on October 23 in Pennsylvania,” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a statement.

The network said the town halls will take place before a live audience of persuadable and undecided voters from Pennsylvania.

“We continue to believe the American people would benefit from hearing more from the two major candidates for President of the United States and so CNN has extended invitations to both Vice President Harris and President Trump’s campaigns to participate in separate CNN Town Halls on October 23,” CNN said in a statement on Thursday.

The network previously proposed a debate between Harris and Trump in Atlanta on October 23. Harris quickly accepted the invite, but Trump repeatedly shrugged it off, despite the Harris campaign’s attempts to goad him into participating.

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Posted

Saw one of these today in North Raleigh, lol

IMG_0167.thumb.webp.45b0cea72c4dc844084bf7bb572f0c37.webp
 

it is remarkable how much more Harris/walz stuff there is. Raleigh is blue but it’s a coalition of just enough black people and j crew whites to outbalance the southern heritage whites. And as far as signs, I see more of the moms for liberty school board wackjobs than Trump.

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Posted
Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Oh, and this is important- from the great Jane Coaston

 

One thing I did thing was important - 

If Trump thinks he's winning bigly, then why did he say Harris should drop out over the 60 Minutes interview?

His Truth Social meltdowns always tell the story more than what campaign insiders say.  Their job is to project confidence - we are winning! Bigly!  The polls we doctor to show Trump show him winning with yuge margins.

Then Trump goes on social media and declares Harris should be disqualified or should drop out for XYZ reasons.  Why bother if you're "winning?" 

Posted
43 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

THAT'S THE FUCKING POINT. THE ENTIRE POINT OF TRUTH SOCIAL WAS DONALD TRUMP SAYING "FUCK IT, I'LL BUILD MY OWN AND EVERYONE WILL FOLLOW" AND NOBODY FOLLOWED. DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T BRING IN THE RATINGS.

Exactly.

I think of it as that stupid tv show you might pause on if switching the channel and see it but only the few people that go to his rallies are tuning in on purpose.

The fact that his message is copied over to twitter is the only thing that makes him relevant.  If that wasn’t happening his reach craters.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Celery Man said:

Saw one of these today in North Raleigh, lol

IMG_0167.thumb.webp.45b0cea72c4dc844084bf7bb572f0c37.webp
 

it is remarkable how much more Harris/walz stuff there is. Raleigh is blue but it’s a coalition of just enough black people and j crew whites to outbalance the southern heritage whites. And as far as signs, I see more of the moms for liberty school board wackjobs than Trump.

There's one of these in my neighborhood apparently as of yesterday, my wife mentioned it to me.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

There are other explanations. We certainly hope that there is a “hidden Dobbs vote,” and there is reason to believe that, but we don’t know it.
Trump support could also be undercounted by 3, which has also been true in the past.
Also - polling has been off by an average of 2-3pts over the last five presidential elections. 
If Harris gets a normal miss in her favor in the swing states (more or less consistent with post Dobbs results), she wins 312-350 EVs, and puts another 20-30 
If Trump gets a normal miss in his favor (which has been historically the case) he gets around 300.

And of course if the polls are exactly correct right now she would win 279 EVs, but then it’s a jump ball and there are certification fights. 

No matter what happens on Election Day, it’s going to be pretty grim between 11/5 and mid February. But the important thing for Democrats right now is to stop fretting about why Trump support isn’t collapsing and focus on GOTV. He’s more likely to be behind than ahead right now and I’d rather be in our shoes than theirs.

The main reason I think the polls are overestimating Trump and underestimating Harris is that there are no other indicators really that he's even close at this point. His small dollar fundraising sucks, the enthusiasm with his base is clearly down, they've got no serious GOTV operation to speak of, etc. I'm concerned about the senate, and I'm concerned that they may be able to keep it close enough in few enough states to give SCOTUS a pretext to try to throw it to him, but there's literally no reason to think he's actually seriously competitive in the EC right now other than a bunch of polls being run by people openly saying "look this has a high MOE and we really have no fucking idea" because polling is obviously broken due to the myriad reasons we've discussed over and over here. 

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Posted
20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

THIS. Dems do not have to respond to every fucking weird accusation Trump makes.  Don't give it life. 

I've seen tons of the Kamala Trans prison commercials on TV in CA. Which seems like an odd way to spend your money. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Foosters said:

I've seen tons of the Kamala Trans prison commercials on TV in CA. Which seems like an odd way to spend your money. 

I seriously think it's because all their money is coming from Elon and the rest of the paypal mafia, who are all obsessed with their hatred of trans people and think the anti-trans shit works politically.

It's probably not a good idea to rely so heavily on a group of people who thought Blake Masters would appeal to voters.  

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Posted
1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

I seriously think it's because all their money is coming from Elon and the rest of the paypal mafia, who are all obsessed with their hatred of trans people and think the anti-trans shit works politically.

It's probably not a good idea to rely so heavily on a group of people who thought Blake Masters would appeal to voters.  

to clarify, Elon hates transpeople, because he hates his own children.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Saw one of these today in North Raleigh, lol

IMG_0167.thumb.webp.45b0cea72c4dc844084bf7bb572f0c37.webp
 

it is remarkable how much more Harris/walz stuff there is. Raleigh is blue but it’s a coalition of just enough black people and j crew whites to outbalance the southern heritage whites. And as far as signs, I see more of the moms for liberty school board wackjobs than Trump.

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I seriously think it's because all their money is coming from Elon and the rest of the paypal mafia, who are all obsessed with their hatred of trans people and think the anti-trans shit works politically.

It's probably not a good idea to rely so heavily on a group of people who thought Blake Masters would appeal to voters.  

If I had to hazard a guess, there's a non negligible number of Arizona residents who commute to work or otherwise spend a lot of time in California media markets. Probably orange county landlords who think they're avoiding CA tax rates.



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