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FINAL 2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #4 /#3 (CFP/AP/Coaches)


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Posted

I can see it either way.  If you force intraconference games in the first round you reduce the possibility of having them in the QF and SF

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Posted
Just now, heso said:

There is zero chance they have an uga - Tenn rematch in the 1st round. 

This. They’ll move someone up or down to avoid an SEC-SEC or B1G-B1G matchup in round 1. Especially a regular season rematch 

Posted
1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

There is literally not a single objective rating set that exists which has Illinois better than every Big 12 team. It's an absurd thing to say. 

Yea I’m not going to die on that hill fighting for Bert and the Illini. Maybe 11-1 was a bit much, maybe not. but it’s not at all absurd to expect that they, and half a dozen other big ten teams would be at the top of the big 12, with a shot at the playoff. 

the big 12 has a losing record ooc to the big ten, acc, and pac 12. They are 2-2 against the sec with their wins being arky & miss st. Colorado got beat handily by Nebraska. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Perhaps you never heard of this CFP metric call the eye test. 

Not familiar with that one. I am quite familiar with their metric of “whatever, we do what we want” 

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Posted

So there is a potential this weekend for Texas, Oregon, SMU, and Arizona State to all immediately walk into their new conferences and win them?

I'm beginning to see why some of the old schools didn't favor allowing the new schools into their conferences. 😀


 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

So there is a potential this weekend for Texas, Oregon, SMU, and Arizona State to all immediately walk into their new conferences and win them?

I'm beginning to see why some of the old schools didn't favor allowing the new schools into their conferences. 😀


 

Some ACC schools didn't want SMU, so it's pretty damn funny that they ran through it and hopefully closes it out this weekend.

I'm pretty sure aggy was the only SEC school butthurt about the new adds, UT in particular.

I know the BIG was hestant at first about UO and UW but my guess is they're fine considering the money.

The Big XII was ecstatic to get the four corners. 

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Posted
39 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

So there is a potential this weekend for Texas, Oregon, SMU, and Arizona State to all immediately walk into their new conferences and win them?

I'm beginning to see why some of the old schools didn't favor allowing the new schools into their conferences. 😀


 

I'm super grateful we only had to face Big Ten teams that all kind of feel the same, instead of jumping from Air Raid to smashmouth to West Coast to RPO to whatever voodoo goes on in Tempe/Tucson.

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Posted
2 hours ago, WBT said:

I can see it either way.  If you force intraconference games in the first round you reduce the possibility of having them in the QF and SF

Well, you can't have four Big 10 teams, and also avoid conference rematches later on. Those Big 10 teams are going to lose

Posted
11 minutes ago, satyanash said:

 

He has Georgia playing a 17 game season. No way Bama loses to Pedo, no way Ohio State beats Tenn, and of course if Texas cracks the code in the CCG they won't fall to Georgia in the playoffs.

Posted
6 hours ago, statsman said:

Alabama would be a ten point favorite over BYU in a neutral site game. They would be a TD favorite over the highest rated B12 team, ISU

They'd be ~ 5 pt favorite over Colorado (neutral site).

Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:

I think some of you are underestimating the Big XII.

While there is no great team it is a pretty solid conference top to bottom.

The funny thing about the Big 12 is that teams like Iowa State, Arizona State, BYU etc would be thought better of if they had a win over say Texas, or Oklahoma on their resume.  It's the problem for a conference that has no helmet cache.

Edited by Surly Bevo
Posted
45 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

He has Georgia playing a 17 game season. No way Bama loses to Pedo, no way Ohio State beats Tenn, and of course if Texas cracks the code in the CCG they won't fall to Georgia in the playoffs.

lol, the Bama that lost to Vandy and scored 3 points against OU? 

s-e-c s-e-c s-e-c

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Posted
5 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

The problem is you are equating top team strength with overall conference quality. It's probably because you are doing the same thing the media does and completely undervaluing the difficulty of beating a slate of competent teams compared to beating one or two great teams and a bunch of scrubs.

Ask Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Ohio State, etc. about having to play all those teams in the #25-#50 range. It's not easy to beat them all without slipping up. A schedule with one great team and a bunch of scrubs is incredibly easier to manage than a schedule with no great team but 10 good ones. Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana all had just as easy or easier schedules to go 10-2 against than Iowa State did. And that's why. 

No I'm not at all. I've said the SEC is the best conference because it has the top end teams and even the bottom teams are talented and can rise up and bite you. 

The big 12 doesn't have any top teams and the entire conference is g5 level talent. Their "top" 2 teams wouldn't place top 5 or 6 in the SEC or Big 10. So what are the rest of the teams? They're a bunch of scrubs teams. It's a basketball conference now. 

So for the playoffs discussion it's important to note when a team has to play a conference slate of talented teams vs a conference slate of scrubs teams. 

The best win between ISU and AZ St is Iowa, who only played 1 team that finished in the top 8 in the Big 10 and lost to them by 28 points. It's a garbage conference. 

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, heso said:

 

the big 12 has a losing record ooc to the big ten, acc, and pac 12. They are 2-2 against the sec with their wins being arky & miss st. Colorado got beat handily by Nebraska. 

That's the point. Not even 1 Big 12 team can match the talent level of even Aggy. They got raided by the portal and NIL and have zero wins as a conference against any teams that will even be considered for the playoffs outside of SMU, which itself has played nobody. They didn't play Clemson or Miami, the only two teams in the ACC who could be considered able to challenge the top 5 in the Big 10 or SEC. That's why I believe SMU gets handled on Saturday and Clemson goes to the playoff. 

If Texas hosted a first round playoff game would you feel more confident if they hosted ASU/ISU/SMU or Ole Miss/Alabama/South Carolina? 

Every Texas fan would want the first 3 because obviously the last 3 are far more talented and better teams. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, heso said:

lol, the Bama that lost to Vandy and scored 3 points against OU? 

s-e-c s-e-c s-e-c

They overlooked and underestimated OU, a team with much more talent than its record would indicate. A recipe for getting upset, especially on the road. Their performances against Auburn and Georgia are ore indicative of how they'd approach a playoff game. Meanwhile Pedo really has not been tested. Give me Bama all day.

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Posted
On 11/30/2024 at 11:16 PM, cmontexas said:

If you're Dan Lanning, looks like your options are

A. Iowa State/Arizona State then Boise 

B. Bye then winner of Tennessee/Ohio State

How hard do you gameplan for the Big 10 CCG?

Looks like it'll be a Texas/Oregon battle for NC

Posted
24 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

They overlooked and underestimated OU, a team with much more talent than its record would indicate. A recipe for getting upset, especially on the road. Their performances against Auburn and Georgia are ore indicative of how they'd approach a playoff game. Meanwhile Pedo really has not been tested. Give me Bama all day.

They overlooked OU? When a loss would have almost certainly knocked them out of playoff contention. Right. 

But that’s the mantra of the sec this year. Judge them by their best games, ignore the losses. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, heso said:

They overlooked OU? When a loss would have almost certainly knocked them out of playoff contention. Right. 

But that’s the mantra of the sec this year. Judge them by their best games, ignore the losses. 

I'm not sure they felt that sense of urgency going into that game. I put that on DeBoer, but also you have to credit the sooners for executing their gameplan and never allowing Bama to mount any kind of response. Either way, I don't see Bama losing to any B1G team.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm not sure they felt that sense of urgency going into that game. I put that on DeBoer, but also you have to credit the sooners for executing their gameplan and never allowing Bama to mount any kind of response. Either way, I don't see Bama losing to any B1G team.

There is a difference between being probably better than another team (by the eye test) and being more deserving (by record and performances on the field). Bama has had massive variations in play this year. They have looked like a top 5 team and an unranked team at different points. They have a higher ceiling than the teams we are comparing them to but they also have a lower floor. To reward them for their erratic play is ridiculous. 

Posted
Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

There is a difference between being probably better than another team (by the eye test) and being more deserving (by record and performances on the field). Bama has had massive variations in play this year. They have looked like a top 5 team and an unranked team at different points. They have a higher ceiling than the teams we are comparing them to but they also have a lower floor. To reward them for their erratic play is ridiculous. 

I don't think of playoff qualification as a "reward" when the committee's job is to find the twelve best teams and to arrange the eight best potential matchups for the first two rounds.

"Deserve" got nothing to do with it. I'm not sure I would consider Alabama one of the twelve best teams in the country, but I do think if they did make the playoffs they would beat Pedo State quite easily.

Posted
Just now, chainsaw said:

I don't think of playoff qualification as a "reward" when the committee's job is to find the twelve best teams and to arrange the eight best potential matchups for the first two rounds.

"Deserve" got nothing to do with it. I'm not sure I would consider Alabama one of the twelve best teams in the country, but I do think if they did make the playoffs they would beat Pedo State quite easily.

Almost every team in the playoffs will beat Pedo State easily. They are a joke team playing in a joke conference and they had a joke schedule. That being said, them and Indiana get in because they both had 1 loss regular seasons. That's how it goes sometimes. You can't put half the SEC in the playoffs along with OSU and Oregon. You have to let other teams in who "earned" their shot. 

Posted
1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Almost every team in the playoffs will beat Pedo State easily. They are a joke team playing in a joke conference and they had a joke schedule. That being said, them and Indiana get in because they both had 1 loss regular seasons. That's how it goes sometimes. You can't put half the SEC in the playoffs along with OSU and Oregon. You have to let other teams in who "earned" their shot. 

If they lose by a lot to Oregon, I would hope they get passed up but you're probably right that they will still qualify.

Posted
15 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm not sure they felt that sense of urgency going into that game. I put that on DeBoer, but also you have to credit the sooners for executing their gameplan and never allowing Bama to mount any kind of response. Either way, I don't see Bama losing to any B1G team.

OU gets no credit for anything. In their last 9 games this year they won 3 games. In those 3 wins they beat 5-7 auburn (with a pick 6 in the last 5 mins), they beat 5-7 Maine, and they beat Bama. They lost 6 of 9.

And not only did bama lose to them, they lost to Vandy as well. 

look, I fully expect Deboer to field legit national championship caliber teams at bama in the future. This ain’t one. 

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Posted

I'm resigned to the fact that as long as the 4 best teams make it in each year, I'm not so concerned with who else makes it. We are debating 3 loss teams making it in now. Who gives a shit. This year texas Oregon osu amd Georgia are the 4 best teams and they are all safely in. Whether Alabama or ole miss or a 2 loss Smu also makes it in is just silly. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, UTGrad98 said:

I'm resigned to the fact that as long as the 4 best teams make it in each year, I'm not so concerned with who else makes it. We are debating 3 loss teams making it in now. Who gives a shit. This year texas Oregon osu amd Georgia are the 4 best teams and they are all safely in. Whether Alabama or ole miss or a 2 loss Smu also makes it in is just silly. 

There’s always going be 5 deserving teams as “the 5 conf champs” bc they won their conference and then we are just picking the “best” resume of the remaining couch potatoes or CCG losers for the other 7 spots.

Id rather split hairs on teams 11/12 than watching 2-3 deserving teams miss out on a 4 team playoff bc someone lost on a fluke play or something 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

There’s always going be 5 deserving teams as “the 5 conf champs” bc they won their conference and then we are just picking the “best” resume of the remaining couch potatoes or CCG losers for the other 7 spots.

Id rather split hairs on teams 11/12 than watching 2-3 deserving teams miss out on a 4 team playoff bc someone lost on a fluke play or something 

I personally think that the jury is still out on this.  If UNLV beats Boise State, they will be in as a 19th or 20th ranked team in the AP or coaches poll.  Good for them for winning their ccg, but they should not jump 8 teams because they are the tallest midget.  Conferences may or may not be exposed durning the playoffs, but I’m hoping they are so we can rethink this thing.  Put the best twelve in with no auto bids or committee.  Use the BCS model for 12 and let the battle rumble begin.  I know this is not going to happen, so maybe we could drop the auto bid for a team that doesn’t finish inside the top 15 of either major poll.

Edited by HeHateMe
Derp
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Posted
14 hours ago, The Dog said:

Neither team has any really good wins other than SMU's win at Louisville (who beat Clemson). Both Sagarin and Massey have this game as a toss-up. I think that's due to Clemson's games against USCe and UGA (even though they were losses).

Sagarin has us 4.5 better than Clemson. That isn't a toss up. I think the line being around a FG is fair. FPI and Sagarin actually both have Lousiville higher than Clemson.

Clemson better hope they are better than they've been against our common opponents. Although I think SCAR is good and they played them well.

SMU @ UL - 31-24 

UL @ Clemson - 33-21 

-

Virginia @ Clemson - 31-48

SMU @ Virginia - 33-7

-

Pitt @ SMU - 25-48

Clemson @ Pitt - 24-20 

-

Stanford @ Clemson - 14-40

SMU @ Stanford - 40-10

-

Clemson @ FSU - 13-29

FSU @ SMU - 16-42

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Posted
8 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I'm not sure they felt that sense of urgency going into that game. I put that on DeBoer, but also you have to credit the sooners for executing their gameplan and never allowing Bama to mount any kind of response. Either way, I don't see Bama losing to any B1G team.

But you totally forwsaw the losses to vandy and ou right?  Congrats, you must have really made out on those money lines.

Posted
15 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Is that preference geographically based? 

15 hours ago, JBJ said:

I would bet a #1 B1G would be placed in the Rose Bowl, so not necessarily but mostly geographic is probably correct.

 

Posted
9 hours ago, chainsaw said:

"Deserve" got nothing to do with it. I'm not sure I would consider Alabama one of the twelve best teams in the country, but I do think if they did make the playoffs they would beat Pedo State quite easily.

I'll tell you what has something to do with it: TV eyeballs. Because of their runaway success over the last ten years, 'Bama will produce substantially better Nielsens than Pedo State. Pedo's appeal is Rust Belt; 'Bama's is nationwide. The CFP Selection Committee won't admit it publicly, of course, but that matters. It's the same with Texas, BTW. We don't need it this year, but it's nice to have that Nielsen ace up our sleeves for the times when we do. 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, ztejas said:

Bro Arizona is God fucking awful.

They were pretty darn good last year and have had some good seasons. That’s the difference, there’s no perennial cellar dwellers in the Big XII anymore. Baylor and even KU have learned how to not be terrible all the time. OKST was in the CCG last year and is 0-7 this year. The preseason predictions were largely backwards of where it ended up. That’s what will make the league interesting going forward. The SEC and BIG pecking order is largely permanent. Indiana is the only major outlier this season. 

Edited by 'stache
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Posted (edited)

(Austin Mock) Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings: It’s Alabama vs. SMU, Miami and the ACC

Quote

The College Football Playoff bracket was again flipped on its head in Rivalry Week. So what will the penultimate selection committee rankings look like Tuesday night?

You can’t start a conversation about the rankings without mentioning Ohio State. The Buckeyes, ranked No. 2 last week, lost to rival Michigan for the fourth consecutive year, this time as a three-touchdown favorite. That’s not only going to shake up the top of the Playoff rankings this week, but its ripples will be felt in conference championship weekend, as Penn State is now in the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon. So how far will Ohio State fall? Are the Buckeyes in line to host a home game in the first round? Tuesday’s rankings will give us a clearer picture.

Ohio State wasn’t the only top-10 team to be upset, either. No. 6 Miami blew a 21-0 lead on the road at Syracuse and is now in jeopardy of missing the Playoff, having already cost itself a spot in the ACC title game (sending Clemson to Charlotte instead). The big question will be if Miami (10-2) is ranked ahead of Alabama (9-3), as the at-large bids are filling up and that’s likely where the bubble line will be drawn. It’s never a certainty until the bracket is set, but if the Hurricanes fall behind Alabama, their odds of making the Playoff are slim. Here’s what my model is predicting the rankings will be Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN):

Projected CFP Top 25 after Week 14

1
12-0
   
2
11-1
   
3
11-1
   
4
11-1
   
5
10-2
   
6
10-2
   
7
10-2
   
8
team-logo-158-50x50.pngSMU
11-1
   
9
11-1
   
10
9-3
   
11
10-2
   
12
9-3
   
13
11-1
   
14
9-3
   
15
10-2
   
16
10-2
   
17
team-logo-217-50x50.pngBYU
10-2
   
18
9-3
   
19
9-3
   
20
9-3
   
21
9-3
   
22
9-3
   
23
10-2
   
24
10-1
   
25
8-4
   

Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame should all move up after Ohio State’s loss. Similar to last week, I wouldn’t be shocked if the committee puts Notre Dame over Penn State. I wouldn’t agree with it — and neither would my model — but the committee could use the Irish’s 14-point win at USC as justification. Penn State beat USC by three in overtime earlier in the year.

Does Ohio State fall to No. 5? Or will it be behind Georgia? Some are making the argument for the Buckeyes to fall below Tennessee, like they did in the AP poll, but that’s an incorrect one, in my opinion. Ohio State has two better wins in the committee’s eyes against Penn State and Indiana and the tougher schedule. People might not like it, but Ohio State is still in a good position to host a Playoff game despite the loss to Michigan. In fact, I’d be shocked if that wasn’t the case.

Perhaps the most uncertainty this week involves the ACC title game and the final at-large bid. SMU beating Clemson makes things pretty simple, as the Mustangs would get an automatic bid and first-round bye and Clemson would be out. However, if SMU loses, Clemson is in position to get an automatic bid and SMU would then be pitted against, you guessed it, Alabama for the last remaining spot, if the Tide are indeed ahead of Miami.

I don’t think SMU should be penalized too harshly for a conference championship game loss, but considering how tough Alabama’s schedule is, especially compared to SMU’s, the Crimson Tide are going to be in the conversation. A lot of things will factor into the discussion, of course. If SMU were to lose by multiple scores, I think that likely knocks it out. If it’s a close game, maybe that keeps the Mustangs in.

But there’s the also the fact that Alabama has the name recognition and hails from the SEC. Is that a fair process? Not necessarily. Alabama would again benefit from jumping a team after the conference championship game like last year over Florida State. But the resumes being so close will make this a debate, and if I had to guess, Alabama would get the benefit of the doubt.

As for the rest of the bracket, there is a chance that the Big 12 champion could stay ahead of Clemson, if it wins the ACC title, which would push the Tigers down the seeding list. With the AAC likely out, the winner of the Mountain West will get a spot in the Playoff — and Boise State has a good shot at the No. 3 seed if Clemson prevails in the ACC.

 

 

           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           

 

Edited by satyanash
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Posted
1 hour ago, 'stache said:

They were pretty darn good last year and have had some good seasons. That’s the difference, there’s no perennial cellar dwellers in the Big XII anymore. Baylor and even KU have learned how to not be terrible all the time. OKST was in the CCG last year and is 0-7 this year. The preseason predictions were largely backwards of where it ended up. That’s what will make the league interesting going forward. The SEC and BIG pecking order is largely permanent. Indiana is the only major outlier this season. 

Purdue played in the big ten championship game 2 years ago and went 9-4 the year before that. 

Miss St has finished in the top 25 four times in the last 10 seasons. They were ranked number 1 for 5 weeks in 2014. 

Posted

Alabama has developed Notre Dame type plot armor I guess.

Lose to Vanderbilt? Get blown out by OU? No problem. They should get a shot at the national title because they are Bama!

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