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Posted (edited)

Here's the same author published on his local news channel's site

https://www.local10.com/weather/hurricane/2025/06/26/critical-hurricane-forecast-tool-abruptly-terminated/

The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program and its constellation of three weather satellites provide roughly half of all microwave satellite scans to forecasters. Those go dark beginning next Monday.

“Their loss is a big deal,” says retired National Hurricane Center branch chief James Franklin, who oversaw all NHC hurricane forecasters until his retirement in 2017. “Without this imagery, there will be increased risk of a ‘sunrise surprise,’ the realization from first-light images that a system had become much better organized overnight, but it wasn’t recognized because structural details are so hard to discern from [infrared satellite].”

Microwave data are also used to help “fix” or position the center of storms, a task not always easily or accurately accomplished using visible or enhanced satellite pictures. As the butterfly effect demonstrates, small errors in the initial positioning of a storm can lead to outsized forecast errors in four or five days.

“For weaker systems, [it’s] increased initial position error (in the tens of miles) that will cascade into poorer track forecasts,” warns Franklin.

Microwave data such as those from the DoD Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder are essential to hurricane forecasts, not a nice-to-have. They’re used in a variety of critical applications, including estimating hurricane intensity through AI-driven neural networks like the Deep Multispectral INtensity of TCs estimator or DMINT. In the absence of hurricane hunters, DMINT has been shown to be one of the most crucial tools in a hurricane forecaster’s arsenal for estimating storm intensity, largely because of the microwave data it utilizes.

Though other microwave data will still be available to forecasters, the DoD weather satellites comprise half of all microwave instruments, which means data availability will be sliced in half, greatly increasing the odds of missing rapid intensification episodes, underestimating intensity, or misplacing the storm and degrading forecast accuracy.

While the Department of Defense did successfully launched another weather satellite known as the Weather System Follow-on Microwave (WSF-M) in April 2024, that data isn’t currently available to forecasters and it’s not clear if or when data access will be permitted.

It's gonna be a real fuckin scary hurricane season flying blind. Thank goodness the president has a sterling history with disaster recovery and response.

Edited by Captainant
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Posted
9 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Here's the same author published on his local news channel's site

https://www.local10.com/weather/hurricane/2025/06/26/critical-hurricane-forecast-tool-abruptly-terminated/

 

It's gonna be a real fuckin scary hurricane season flying blind. Thank goodness the president has a sterling history with disaster recovery and response.

Satellite data is woke.

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Posted

Does God have a sense of humor? I’m not sure if He or She has a sense of humor.

Because it is looking far more likely that a giant hurricane is going to switch tracks right after sunset and level Mar-a-Lago.

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Posted

What possible reason could there be for this kind of decision? Is there a huge cost savings, or is the release of this weather data to forecasters some kind of national security risk?

Or is the real reason some bullshit like "weather forecasting is WOKE and we won't allow data to be collected that might further demonstrate anthropogenic climate change"?

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