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Cruz vs Beto


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21 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I bet you like your middle class welfare, though. You know, the kind you don't know about or conveniently forget about. You should thank the government for helping you get where you are in life.

Thanks I needed a good laugh after that Cowboy game.

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1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Here's a good discussion about that purported quote from "ask historians" on reddit:

 

Yea that particular quote is questionable but LBJ undoubtedly was fond of the hard r. He also was undoubtedly racist. It doesn’t change the fact that he was the single most important person in the passing of the civil rights act.

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Not sure why so many people got pissed, but it was a thing around there.   Maybe the family was well-known.

So the prosecutors even said the dude was a dick and didn’t deserve a deal. There are really no legitimate mitigating factors here that justify commuting his sentence other than the obvious non-legit factor that the dude is white in a very brown and black criminal justice system.
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3 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Yea that particular quote is questionable but LBJ undoubtedly was fond of the hard r. He also was undoubtedly racist. It doesn’t change the fact that he was the single most important person in the passing of the civil rights act.

I'm not sure how racist he really was given the legislation he pushed so hard for and his apparent tactic of making the Dixiecrats believe he was one of them up until the CRA.

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4 minutes ago, HouTex2017 said:

Please by all means, name them. 

Mortgage guarantees, student loan guarantees, subsidies in the form of tax breaks. You know, the stuff you never think about.

Oh, and Medicare and Social Security when you get old. Let's count those, too.

Edited by David Dennison
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2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Mortgage guarantees, student loan guarantees, subsidies in the form of tax breaks. You know, the stuff you never think about.

Oh, and Medicare and Social Security when you get old. Let's count those, too.

Funny you should mention student loans. I just put two kids through college. Got zero help. Meanwhile I know of someone who made about the same amount as I did but got all kinds of help because her husband is too lazy to work. 

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2 minutes ago, HouTex2017 said:

Funny you should mention student loans. I just put two kids through college. Got zero help. Meanwhile I know of someone who made about the same amount as I did but got all kinds of help because her husband is too lazy to work. 

Yes, I'm sure you've done it all by yourself without one bit of help from the federal government.

 

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59 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

Give me a fucking break.  It took the GOP to pass the Civil Rights Act. The only reason LBJ pushed the CRA was this statement 

“I'll have them niggers voting Democratic for the next two hundred years”. [Said to two governors regarding the Civil Rights Act of 1964, according to then-Air Force One steward Robert MacMillan]

LBJ was a fucking, corupt, racist pig and the fact you idolize that POS speaks volumes about your ignorance   

 

Yeah, well, LBJ said a lot of things:

"If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you"

LBJ

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14 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It's always funny to me how people in the middle class of a certain political persuasion don't understand that the market would eat them alive if they tried to compete for capital on their own. They really believe that banks would loan them money without a little nudge from Uncle Sam.

Wait until they find out how bridge lending works.  

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34 minutes ago, HouTex2017 said:

Funny you should mention student loans. I just put two kids through college. Got zero help. Meanwhile I know of someone who made about the same amount as I did but got all kinds of help because her husband is too lazy to work. 

Don’t overlook your disability payments because of your sore knee. 

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19 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Someone's been reading Dinesh D'Souza.  The most influential American historian of our day.  

Kevin M. Kruse is a great twitter follow, as he fucking dismantles D'Souza on a regular basis.   He's an actual historian.  Teaches at Princeton. 

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This was done because I was curious what might the voting look like given what we know, total early and mailed in votes by county, and extrapolating some expected voting numbers given some assumptions.(your assumptions may vary of course)  This is probably a very flawed analysis. 

TLDR:

**2.12 million Estimated Expected R to 1.85 million Estimated Expected D from early voting extrapolated by taking known party affiliated voting and applying it to unknown party voting and new voting by respective percentage.

Here is what I did and where I got the data:

Here is a link from the DMN that has the 15 largest county total early and mailed in vote totals. I extrapolated those and here they are with the total number of 4,068,191 votes from those large counties.

What percentage of Beto vs Cruz percentages for previously non R and D voters and new voters should you assign for the votes in those counties? 

Then you would have to assume that the largest counties would be largely more D(Beto)- centric, right with the out in the sticks counties being more R(Cruz)-centric?

15 Big county total vote totals by county:

BEXER 368048
CAMERON 54576
COLLIN 286393
DALLAS 529521
DENTON 228650
EL PASO 139105
FORT BEND 199267
GALVESTON 90166
HARRIS 855711
HILDAGO 114560
MONTGOMERY 138125
NUECES 67630
TARRANT 465817
TRAVIS 368048
WILLIAMSON 162574
Total Votes* 4068191

*SUM from  totals graphic below:

scaletowidth#tl-1115430948607885313;'

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/11/03/early-voting-turnout-dallas-north-texas-counties-double-past-midterm-elections

Also here is an image of the % of the various sub totals by those same counties:

2crwsh0.jpg

 

If you assign R percentage of voters to the addition of the green + yellow columns in the same ratio as the R's and D's voted by county of the raw you get the extra percentage of the vote to add to respective party totals.  So original R percentage added to the R/R+D percentage= expected R vote percentage * total vote per county, then adding up for the total R expected early vote.(then next column is then D percentage of voters)

For the D's you do the same:

you assign D percentage of voters to the addition of the green + yellow columns in the same ratio as the D's voted by county of the raw you get the extra percentage of the vote to add to the D totals.  So original D percentage added to the D/R+D percentage= expected D vote percentage * total vote per county, then adding up for the total D expected early vote.

You get these expected percentages with no EXTRA Beto effect, just adding the green and yellow and then multiplying that by the R percentage and the D percentage respectively.(also ignoring the noise "mixed" columns that seem to be a virtual wash and are why the two columns below don't add to 100%)

 

BEXER                       48.1848948375   49.1151051625
CAMERON                       23.7067395264   71.2932604736
COLLIN                       69.4172413793   28.7827586207
DALLAS                       43.6393320965   53.9606679035
DENTON                       70.0245173745   28.2754826255
EL PASO                       20.6803088803   74.1196911197
FORT BEND                       58.5945098039   39.7054901961
GALVESTON                       70.3354409318   27.0645590682
HARRIS                       53.3939163498   44.8060836502
HILDAGO                       15.9775043937   78.7224956063
MONTGOMERY                       85.1982905983   13.3017094017
NUECES                       52.8767888307   43.9232111693
TARRANT                       62.3950617284   35.6049382716
TRAVIS                       30.820626151   66.479373849
WILLIAMSON                       62.5138686131   35.0861313869

 

Multiply those percentages by .01 first, then by the total votes to get these numbers:

BEXER                                 177343.541751434   180767.162248566
CAMERON                                 12938.1901639344   38909.0098360656
COLLIN                                 198806.120103448   82431.8058965517
DALLAS                                 231079.427710575   285733.068289425
DENTON                                 160111.058976834   64651.891023166
EL PASO                                 28767.3436679537   103104.196332046
FORT BEND                                 116759.52185098   79119.9391490196
GALVESTON                                 63418.6536705491   24403.0303294509
HARRIS                                 456897.615536122   383410.586463878
HILDAGO                                 18303.8290333919   90184.4909666081
MONTGOMERY                                 117680.138888889   18372.9861111111
NUECES                                 35760.5722862129   29705.2677137871
TARRANT                                 290646.804691358   165853.855308642
TRAVIS                                 113434.69813628   244676.00586372
WILLIAMSON                                 101631.296759124   57040.9272408759
                                  Total Expected R   Total Expected D
                                  2123578.81322709   1848364.22277291

 

What does it say:

Large counties if their voting by their new and previously non R and D voters are estimated to vote like the R and D percentages then Beto is in trouble since he has not gained a big lead in the biggest counties.**(where the votes are)

**2.12 million Estimated Expected R to 1.85 million Estimated Expected D is a deficit unlikely to be expected to be picked up by Rural Texas voters.

 

 

What does it not say:

Nothing about sized counties 16 and lower but you would expect Texas rural to be at least 50/50 R/D at minimum.(probably more to the R side if history is a guide)

Nobody can exactly predict how the turnout of any of the category percentages actually is. (Keeping it Simple(Stupid) would say you might be able to extrapolate generically for fun to the unknown population similar to the known.)

What the fudge factor should be for Beto excitement?

What the fudge factor should be for Never Trumpers voting for Cruz?

Who will turnout 11/6/2018?

 

aside:  I was using open office to run the spreadsheet from home and didn't take the time to shave the significant digits down.  But it is uniformly large significant digits so that part shouldn't matter.

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Mack Tripper said:


So the prosecutors even said the dude was a dick and didn’t deserve a deal. There are really no legitimate mitigating factors here that justify commuting his sentence other than the obvious non-legit factor that the dude is white in a very brown and black criminal justice system.

If I recall correctly the father, who he attempted to murder, was quite adamant about not killing his son, the sole remaining member of his family. They might have had something to do with it. 

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6 hours ago, zork said:

This was done because I was curious what might the voting look like given what we know, total early and mailed in votes by county, and extrapolating some expected voting numbers given some assumptions.(your assumptions may vary of course)  This is probably a very flawed analysis. 

TLDR:

**2.12 million Estimated Expected R to 1.85 million Estimated Expected D from early voting extrapolated by taking known party affiliated voting and applying it to unknown party voting and new voting by respective percentage.

Here is what I did and where I got the data:

Here is a link from the DMN that has the 15 largest county total early and mailed in vote totals. I extrapolated those and here they are with the total number of 4,068,191 votes from those large counties.

What percentage of Beto vs Cruz percentages for previously non R and D voters and new voters should you assign for the votes in those counties? 

Then you would have to assume that the largest counties would be largely more D(Beto)- centric, right with the out in the sticks counties being more R(Cruz)-centric?

15 Big county total vote totals by county:

BEXER 368048
CAMERON 54576
COLLIN 286393
DALLAS 529521
DENTON 228650
EL PASO 139105
FORT BEND 199267
GALVESTON 90166
HARRIS 855711
HILDAGO 114560
MONTGOMERY 138125
NUECES 67630
TARRANT 465817
TRAVIS 368048
WILLIAMSON 162574
Total Votes* 4068191

*SUM from  totals graphic below:

scaletowidth#tl-1115430948607885313;'

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/11/03/early-voting-turnout-dallas-north-texas-counties-double-past-midterm-elections

Also here is an image of the % of the various sub totals by those same counties:

2crwsh0.jpg

 

If you assign R percentage of voters to the addition of the green + yellow columns in the same ratio as the R's and D's voted by county of the raw you get the extra percentage of the vote to add to respective party totals.  So original R percentage added to the R/R+D percentage= expected R vote percentage * total vote per county, then adding up for the total R expected early vote.(then next column is then D percentage of voters)

For the D's you do the same:

you assign D percentage of voters to the addition of the green + yellow columns in the same ratio as the D's voted by county of the raw you get the extra percentage of the vote to add to the D totals.  So original D percentage added to the D/R+D percentage= expected D vote percentage * total vote per county, then adding up for the total D expected early vote.

You get these expected percentages with no EXTRA Beto effect, just adding the green and yellow and then multiplying that by the R percentage and the D percentage respectively.(also ignoring the noise "mixed" columns that seem to be a virtual wash and are why the two columns below don't add to 100%)

 

BEXER                       48.1848948375   49.1151051625
CAMERON                       23.7067395264   71.2932604736
COLLIN                       69.4172413793   28.7827586207
DALLAS                       43.6393320965   53.9606679035
DENTON                       70.0245173745   28.2754826255
EL PASO                       20.6803088803   74.1196911197
FORT BEND                       58.5945098039   39.7054901961
GALVESTON                       70.3354409318   27.0645590682
HARRIS                       53.3939163498   44.8060836502
HILDAGO                       15.9775043937   78.7224956063
MONTGOMERY                       85.1982905983   13.3017094017
NUECES                       52.8767888307   43.9232111693
TARRANT                       62.3950617284   35.6049382716
TRAVIS                       30.820626151   66.479373849
WILLIAMSON                       62.5138686131   35.0861313869

 

Multiply those percentages by .01 first, then by the total votes to get these numbers:

BEXER                                 177343.541751434   180767.162248566
CAMERON                                 12938.1901639344   38909.0098360656
COLLIN                                 198806.120103448   82431.8058965517
DALLAS                                 231079.427710575   285733.068289425
DENTON                                 160111.058976834   64651.891023166
EL PASO                                 28767.3436679537   103104.196332046
FORT BEND                                 116759.52185098   79119.9391490196
GALVESTON                                 63418.6536705491   24403.0303294509
HARRIS                                 456897.615536122   383410.586463878
HILDAGO                                 18303.8290333919   90184.4909666081
MONTGOMERY                                 117680.138888889   18372.9861111111
NUECES                                 35760.5722862129   29705.2677137871
TARRANT                                 290646.804691358   165853.855308642
TRAVIS                                 113434.69813628   244676.00586372
WILLIAMSON                                 101631.296759124   57040.9272408759
                                  Total Expected R   Total Expected D
                                  2123578.81322709   1848364.22277291

 

What does it say:

Large counties if their voting by their new and previously non R and D voters are estimated to vote like the R and D percentages then Beto is in trouble since he has not gained a big lead in the biggest counties.**(where the votes are)

**2.12 million Estimated Expected R to 1.85 million Estimated Expected D is a deficit unlikely to be expected to be picked up by Rural Texas voters.

 

 

What does it not say:

Nothing about sized counties 16 and lower but you would expect Texas rural to be at least 50/50 R/D at minimum.(probably more to the R side if history is a guide)

Nobody can exactly predict how the turnout of any of the category percentages actually is. (Keeping it Simple(Stupid) would say you might be able to extrapolate generically for fun to the unknown population similar to the known.)

What the fudge factor should be for Beto excitement?

What the fudge factor should be for Never Trumpers voting for Cruz?

Who will turnout 11/6/2018?

 

aside:  I was using open office to run the spreadsheet from home and didn't take the time to shave the significant digits down.  But it is uniformly large significant digits so that part shouldn't matter.

 

 

 

 

I appreciate the efforts but if your math has Beto down by 300k votes in the largest counties through early voting, something is seriously off. Wouldn't that be significantly underperforming Clinton/Trump?

Edited by horncyclist
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5 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:

When do early numbers start coming out?

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katherinemiller/midterms-watch-guide?origin=thum

Some early numbers will pop up at 7pm.   Of course, keep in mind that El Paso won't report anything until 8pm because they're Mountain Time. 

The big counties will take for-fucking-ever to report Election Day totals due to long lines as always.  Republicans will, as usual, scream Democrats are figuring out how many votes they need to rig races for Allred, Fletcher, Beto, etc.

Edited by Js1
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5 minutes ago, HOOK'EMHOOAH said:

I'm about to head to my polling station to put in my ballot for Beto. I'm wearing my Humans against Ted Cruz shirt and my Iraq and Afghanistan Veteran hat. I seriously hope someone tries to come at me with some bullshit. I'm not in the mood for fuck-fuck games today.

That is electioneering and you can be denied your vote if the person in charge at that location so chooses. The shirt, I mean. It's a class C misdemeanor.

 

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

That is electioneering and you can be denied your vote if the person in charge at that location so chooses. The shirt, I mean. It's a class C misdemeanor.

 

Yep.  I'd be iffy.  At worst, bring something to cover it up - like a hoodie or a jacket.  Otherwise, they may turn your ass away.  Especially if is some Bitchy Barbara who thinks Ted looks like a 50s movie star.

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