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Posted
4 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

I really don't understand why any of you are so sure about this. They are literally right on the knife's edge of not being in the playoff. If they get blown out by Georgia they could easily fall 3 spots and get fucked.

There is no way they'd punish a team for making and losing the SEC CG regardless of the margin. Ole Miss and Aggy are in with one conference loss. Bama would be in if they lost the tiebreaker and were resting this weekend. Leaving them out would set an even worse precedent than the UT losing to No. 1 tOSU situation. Maybe if CCG's were officially going to end soon but they are still trying to make those games meaningful and sure af can't let someone be negatively affected especially a blueblood like Bama.

Posted
7 minutes ago, gernblansten said:

Is this one of those things that someone claims and then others just repeat it? Referee Ken Williamson got "permanently suspended" by the SEC after the Georgia-Auburn game. His crew did not officiate the OU-Auburn game, Jeff Heaser's crew did and they continued to officiate games after OU-Auburn. 

That play also didn't turn the game, it was the game's first touchdown. Nowhere near a guarantee that Auburn wins that game if the TD is overturned.

Posted
1 minute ago, 'stache said:

There is no way they'd punish a team for making and losing the SEC CG regardless of the margin. Ole Miss and Aggy are in with one conference loss. Bama would be in if they lost the tiebreaker and were resting this weekend. Leaving them out would set an even worse precedent than the UT losing to No. 1 tOSU situation. Maybe if CCG's were officially going to end soon but they are still trying to make those games meaningful and sure af can't let someone be negatively affected especially a blueblood like Bama.

I can't agree. If they lose like 35-7 to Georgia I think the committee absolutely considers dropping them and they'd be right to do so. I'm not saying they'd ultimately do it but they'd have to consider it considering Bama's very obvious deficiencies.

Posted
1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

The committee's job is to pick the best team of 136 teams, rank it, then pick the best team of the remaining 135 teams, rank it #2, then pick the best team of the remaining 134 teams, rank it #3, and so on and so forth until 25 teams are ranked. The FSU precedent tells us that by "best" they mean "most likely to win in the playoffs" and not just "team that has the most impressive record" (even though the two are highly correlated).

So let's run this thought experiment.

It's hard to argue that Ohio State is not the "best" team. Undefeated in a good conference, and beat good out-of-conference opponents. Has barely trailed all season.

  Reveal hidden contents

1. Ohio State

Of the remaining 135 teams, the only undefeated team is Indiana. Also in a good conference. I'm going to be somewhat controversial here, because if you're asking me whether there's a better team in that 135, I would say yes, and that team is Georgia. My reasoning is simple: in the absence of some really peculiar advantage in terms of matchups or injuries, virtually any playoff team would feel better about its chances against Indiana than it would against Georgia. Maybe that's SEC bias, but I don't think I'm out of line saying that Georgia would be undefeated with Indiana's schedule, while Indiana probably would have dropped a game (or more).

  Hide contents

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

Of the remaining 134 teams, the only undefeated team is Indiana. Who is best among Indiana, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, and Oregon? This is a hard question to answer. In terms of talent, I believe it's Texas A&M, but Indiana has a better QB and a better win (Oregon) than Texas A&M (ND). So I would call 3-4 a tie. If Ohio State beats Indiana in the CCG that should be enough to dock them down to #4 (even though I don't believe it changes the answer to the real question, which is whether opponents are more scared to face Texas A&M than Indiana)

  Hide contents

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

3. Indiana

3. Texas A&M

Of the remaining 132 teams, you have Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon, and BYU each with one loss; Oklahoma, ND, Bama, Miami, Utah, and Vandy with two losses; and Texas, Michigan, and USC with their three losses. Of these teams, the team with the most defensible claims to being "best" are the one loss teams from strong conferences: Ole Miss and Oregon. If I think Georgia is better than Indiana then I should also think losing to Georgia is less bad than losing to Indiana, but on the other hand I can see about half the field of teams preferring to face Ole Miss in a playoff game. More talent, more money, the whole thing. So, I'm going to say Oregon is the "best" team of those 132 and Ole Miss is the "best" team remaining after that

  Hide contents

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

3. Indiana

3. Texas A&M

5. Oregon

6. Ole Miss

Of the remaining 130 teams, you have Texas Tech and BYU each with one loss; Oklahoma, ND, Bama, Miami, Utah, and Vandy with two losses; and Texas, Michigan, and USC with their three losses. I'll be blunt. I think most of the field would rather face one of BYU, Texas Tech, Utah, and USC (the "we like our chances" camp). So I'm going to set them aside for now. A good argument could be made that, of those 130 options, Texas is the team that puts the most fear into everyone else if the game is played in December or January. By the same logic, very good arguments could also be made about Alabama, Miami, and Notre Dame, all of which are teams that can boast recent postseason success (an ability to "peak at the right time") on top of elite talent (the "Fuck" camp). Everyone else (Oklahoma, Vandy, and Michigan) are closer to that "we like our chances" camp.

So, who is "best" among Texas, Alabama, Miami, and Notre Dame? My gut tells me Notre Dame is not the best of those four, but maybe isn't the worst, but then again lost to Miami (but would it lose in December/January)? The same can be asked about Alabama, which is why a loss in December would cut against the idea that it is "best" of the four, even if that loss is to a great team in a conference championship game.

By "best," I mean "strikes the most fear in playoff opponents"

 

jack-nicholson-jack.gif

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

We can’t jump bama.  Can’t punish a team for losing in ccg. Otherwise why play it?  Decline 

Decline? That's a forfeit. Now you have to pay a monetary penalty to the network, have drawn criticism from every major sports outlet in the country, and have been removed from the playoffs anyways. What's your next step? 

Posted
1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Decline? That's a forfeit. Now you have to pay a monetary penalty to the network, have drawn criticism from every major sports outlet in the country, and have been removed from the playoffs anyways. What's your next step? 

 

1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Decline? That's a forfeit. Now you have to pay a monetary penalty to the network, have drawn criticism from every major sports outlet in the country, and have been removed from the playoffs anyways. What's your next step? 

Team has bird flu. Send the next team in our stead

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Posted
2 hours ago, TejasPedro said:

The argument boils down to this, Aggies are regarded as fuck and OU sucks. 
What else is there to discuss, it so freaking simple guys.
For the sake of humanity and all that is pure in the world the Longhorns absolutely deserve to be in the CFP.  

You forgot fuck ND, but otherwise I can I agree with your premise.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

Keep the home games of Ohio State and Michigan because we are owed those. We went to their house, they have to come to ours. 

But cancel ND and anything else moving forward. Replace those games with Minnesota, Florida State, Purdue, or some other shit program that is still a P4 as I thought that’s what the SEC required of at least 1 OOC opponent.

Yeah, but what if that win over ND was highlight of your season?😀

 

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Parker Warby said:

As optimistic as I want to be, FanDual has us at +2500 to get in the playoffs. Don't think it's happening.

I think it's kinda hard to put definitive odds on it until the rankings tomorrow come out. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Parker Warby said:

As optimistic as I want to be, FanDual has us at +2500 to get in the playoffs. Don't think it's happening.

But it means there's still an outside chance. You need the committee to first jump you over Vandy and Miami (admittedly hard because they both dominated their last regular season games against ranked opponents on the road, but your win was better on paper so there is room to make that case) and then root for Georgia to blow out Alabama and Tech to beat BYU. That's the only path I see. Stanford making ND sweat would have been a small insurance policy as well but alas...

Posted
2 hours ago, Newy25 said:


After nearly two decades of watching SEC schools pay players while we refused to play the game I do not want to see Texas play a different game than our peers only to bitch about not making the playoffs. I was in Columbus this year and as fun as that was I would much rather be going to a playoff game.  The Cheese It Bowl just does not do it for me. 

Not sure why you quoted my post, as I sure as shit have not advocated for keeping difficult OOC games if the committee is going to punish those Ls. If a big OOC loss doesn't hurt you, as advertised, keep them. Otherwise, it's obvious they should go and the committee will have fucked up things further in allowing that to happen. 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

We can’t jump bama.  Can’t punish a team for losing in ccg. Otherwise why play it?  Decline 

please explain this. Georgia moved up last year beating Texas in a conference championship game. They jumped Texas, so Texas moved down and Georgia moved up. That is clear evidence that CC games do count. If Bama loses in a tight game, it does not matter. If Georgia boat races them, it is a different situation. Then there is the injury situation that could be an issue, which we have seen. I do not think Texas is getting in. I think it is a single digit chance, but the idea that CCG do not matter is incorrect

Edited by Codaxx
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Posted
9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think it's kinda hard to put definitive odds on it until the rankings tomorrow come out. 

Yeah how do you determine odds on a committee decision? I know vegas is stupid sometimes but what stops the committee from taking Texas at +2500 and putting us in? money trail yadda yadda yadda but inside trading on bets is legal no?

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Posted
1 minute ago, South Austin said:

I personally think Del Conte should ink a 10-year series with East Carolina.

No, we need a P4 "name brand" who is projected to be ass in perpetuity. AAC teams don't help us.

Stanford?

1 minute ago, Zeus said:

Rice-Owls-Logo-1943.png

We need a P4 scrub, dammit! Read the assignment's instructions!

Posted
1 hour ago, SarksJuggs said:

The unfortunate counter argument here is that they beat Georgia & we didn’t.

I've been told that bad loss is most important metric this year....

Posted

I think the most interesting outcome of this week's release will be where they put Ole Miss. If they show any kind of slide, it's like the CFP is tipping their cards that they are going to remove Ole Miss next week. That coupled with Texas at #12 as Klatt predicted would be real telling.

Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

That play also didn't turn the game, it was the game's first touchdown. Nowhere near a guarantee that Auburn wins that game if the TD is overturned.

True.

But it was also blatant, premditated, cheating delivered straight from the Head Coach. That should be enough.

Edited by Orange&White
Posted

Not in favor of canceling but my list of P4 teams we should schedule. These are the only Power schools we have never defeated, would like to see that in my lifetime just to say we did it. 

North Carolina State

Syracuse

Virginia Tech

Minnesota

Northwestern

In the SEC all we lack is South Carolina but we will get them soon. 

 

 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

I think the most interesting outcome of this week's release will be where they put Ole Miss. If they show any kind of slide, it's like the CFP is tipping their cards that they are going to remove Ole Miss next week. That coupled with Texas at #12 as Klatt predicted would be real telling.

Jimmy Sexton would absolutely love this to happen.  It's like Christmas in December.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

Not in favor of canceling but my list of P4 teams we should schedule. These are the only Power schools we have never defeated, would like to see that in my lifetime just to say we did it. 

North Carolina State

Syracuse

Virginia Tech

Minnesota

Northwestern

In the SEC all we lack is South Carolina but we will get them soon. 

 

 

You schedule teams like this to fill in that "P4 requirement" with one year contracts so we play them at home with no return trips.   Dammit I get tired of seeing many of the SEC teams not even having their first road game until October because they lock in the first three games at home and then have their first conference game at home.   Time to do ourselves this favor.  

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

Not in favor of canceling but my list of P4 teams we should schedule. These are the only Power schools we have never defeated, would like to see that in my lifetime just to say we did it. 

North Carolina State

Syracuse

Virginia Tech

Minnesota

Northwestern

In the SEC all we lack is South Carolina but we will get them soon. 

 

 

Missed Illinois, Michigan State, Duke, Florida State, and Cincy. 

Posted

Since everyone else has thrown out every other idea, fuck it... Lets just forgo a bowl game, and instead play ND before the first playoff game and settle who should make it in.   (yes I know this would never happen)   It would be a fuck ton of revenue though...  

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Posted
4 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Spill the tea, what is he saying? IS he saying we should be in over OU? Is he saying ND should be out?

He was basically saying we've played 5 top 10 ranked teams and beat 3 of them. He spoke on losing to Ohio State 14-7 and how we out gained them by 150 yards and nobody else has played them within 2 scores. He also said a lot of the teams that are ahead of us haven't played any ranked teams or if they did they lost. He was mentioning the growth in this team from the beginning of the year to where we currently are now

Posted
Just now, Nueces River Rat said:

You schedule teams like this to fill in that "P4 requirement" with one year contracts so we play them at home with no return trips.   Dammit I get tired of seeing many of the SEC teams not even having their first road game until October because they lock in the first three games at home and then have their first conference game at home.   Time to do ourselves this favor.  

With the SEC going to 9 games they should should institute two rules to be eligible for a 5th home SEC game in any given year. If not have fun going to Athens or Austin every other year.

  • No FCS after September
  • One road P4 game every 2-3 years. 
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Spill the tea, what is he saying? IS he saying we should be in over OU? Is he saying ND should be out?

We aren't making it no matter how hard he lobbies, but I'm glad he's trying.

Edited by David Dennison
Posted
2 minutes ago, MAGS® said:

Since everyone else has thrown out every other idea, fuck it... Lets just forgo a bowl game, and instead play ND before the first playoff game and settle who should make it in.   (yes I know this would never happen)   It would be a fuck ton of revenue though...  

ND would never since they are firmly in but the game should be against Miami to force the committees hand against ND. BYU and Coastal Carolina did this in 2020 at the last minute. 

Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, 'stache said:

There is no way they'd punish a team for making and losing the SEC CG regardless of the margin.

Texas had to play Clemson at home instead of getting a bye week because Texas lost in the SEC CG. That's a punishment, isn't it?

Edited by chainsaw
Posted
24 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Spill the tea, what is he saying? IS he saying we should be in over OU? Is he saying ND should be out?

 

It’s not really tea if he’s live on air saying stuff

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just Sayin GIF by MOODMAN

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

Texas had to play Clemson at home instead of getting a bye week because Texas lost in the SEC CG. That's a punishment, isn't it?

They fixed that. That wouldn't happen this time. 

Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

Texas had to play Clemson at home instead of getting a bye week because Texas lost in the SEC CG. That's a punishment, isn't it?

The committee was obligated to do that last year but there are plenty of years around that teams have fallen out of the final rankings without playing games. They likely wont punish Alabama but a 3 score loss should move them out if its not competitive, 

Posted
9 hours ago, Drew said:

You know the more I think about this the more I think an even more hilarious result could happen. 

Wanna talk “chaos”?

What happens if BYU wins?

Tech won’t drop out being top 5/6 with only 1 loss now.  And 11/12 are earmarked for the ACC/G5 champ(which is dumb we all agree). 
 

So who drops?  #8 2 loss OU?  #9 2 loss ND that no one here believes the committed will not have in the playoffs?  Or #10 Bama(who I shouldn’t drop based on playing the SEC title game or so we’ve heard)?  
 

Talk about absolutely pandemonium if either other those 3 gets dropped. 
 

BUT the best thing is all the OU/Aggie fans crowing about how, even though we beat both, we’re sitting at home for the playoffs will be hilarious to throw in their face when/if OU is left out for BYU. 
 

So while I think the best result for Texas, is Bama/BYU losses to get an outside shot of getting placed at 10(not likely I know) over both.  I think BYU winning would be the most crazy, realistic, thing to happen this weekend. 

Let say BYU wins, AND Bama wins.  Now what?  #3 UGA not dropping out.  #9 Dome?  LOL..  #8 OU sucks?  If Tech loses they better hope like hell the committee flips OU and Dome this week or the committee will go in dry on them.

Posted
24 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

please explain this. Georgia moved up last year beating Texas in a conference championship game. They jumped Texas, so Texas moved down and Georgia moved up. That is clear evidence that CC games do count. If Bama loses in a tight game, it does not matter. If Georgia boat races them, it is a different situation. Then there is the injury situation that could be an issue, which we have seen. I do not think Texas is getting in. I think it is a single digit chance, but the idea that CCG do not matter is incorrect

Slight movement within the playoff seeding should be obvious and expected.  But as much as I have questions about Bama, I don't think they should get punished and pushed out for winning the SEC tiebreaker and playing an additional game while A&M and Ole Miss sit at home.  I think that would set a terrible precedent and likely end the concept of Conference Championship Games (which I think is inevitable regardless).  I can't imagine a scenario where the SEC gets 4 or 5 teams in but the team that finished 2nd in the league is left out.

If we have an expanded playoff with 4 AQ, I hope this weekend turns into SEC #1 and #2 are auto admits and then #3 plays (at home) against #6 and #4 plays (at home) against #5 for the auto bids.  Or have 4 play-in games (1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5).    That would make this weekend must see TV.   

 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Texas had to play Clemson at home instead of getting a bye week because Texas lost in the SEC CG. That's a punishment, isn't it?

 

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

They fixed that. That wouldn't happen this time. 

 

2 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

The committee was obligated to do that last year but there are plenty of years around that teams have fallen out of the final rankings without playing games. They likely wont punish Alabama but a 3 score loss should move them out if its not competitive, 

I think the sentiment is that the CCG isn't going to knock out a team that is presumably "in" before the CCG is played. Most think Bama is in as of today. If they pick up a 3rd loss in the CCG, it shouldn't be a determining factor in whether they get knocked out. In other words you can only improve your position by playing (and winning) the CCG. Take the Big 10 game this year, it's #1 vs #2. The winner will be the #1 seed and the loser will likely fall to #3 or so.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Jimbob said:

Let say BYU wins, AND Bama wins.  Now what?  #3 UGA not dropping out.  #9 Dome?  LOL..  #8 OU sucks?  If Tech loses they better hope like hell the committee flips OU and Dome this week or the committee will go in dry on them.

Assuming we don't have a realistic path once rankings released tomorrow, I'm absolutely rooting for BYU, Bama, and Duke. Let's just have mass chaos and blow the current structure up.

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