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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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21 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Again, the dirt held or lost there really doesn't matter (to Ukraine, at least).  In every situation, maximize the opportunity to kill Russians and destroy Russian gear, while minimizing your own losses.  If you retreat a KM per day, but are killing Russians at a 5:1 clip, that's a big win.

you ratio is way waay too low.  to inflict the kill ratio you want with the impact you want it needs to be more than 25:1

 

The US lost about 58,000 KIA in Vietnam.   best estimates are 1.1 million N Viet/ cong minh, NVA deaths. 

 

thats roughly a 19:1 ratio  and we didnt win.

 

 

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1 minute ago, AUS-97HORN said:

you ratio is way waay too low.  to inflict the kill ratio you want with the impact you want it needs to be more than 25:1

 

The US lost about 58,000 KIA in Vietnam.   best estimates are 1.1 million N Viet/ cong minh, NVA deaths. 

 

thats roughly a 19:1 ratio  and we didnt win.

 

 

Yeah.....I don't think Ukraine is hitting anywhere close to a 25:1 on even its best weeks.

Then again, Ukraine is playing the part of the VC/NVA here.  They just have to make the costs of taking/holding land too high for Russia.  Imagine if our VC etc. adversaries had inflicted even a 1:1 kill ratio on us.  That war either would have ended quite quickly with our withdrawal...or it would have gone nuclear somehow.

Similar playing field in Ukraine, except they're much better equipped than the VC and NVA were relative to their adversary, and they're hitting the kill ratio to prove it.

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4 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

you ratio is way waay too low.  to inflict the kill ratio you want with the impact you want it needs to be more than 25:1

 

The US lost about 58,000 KIA in Vietnam.   best estimates are 1.1 million N Viet/ cong minh, NVA deaths. 

 

thats roughly a 19:1 ratio  and we didnt win.

 

 

Well, not sure why you wouldn’t count S. Vietnamese military casualties, putting you closer to 3:1.  Not that it’s really an apples to apples compare to begin with. 

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Here's an interview with a chief sergeant who has been serving in Soledar with the 46th, but had to be pulled out due to hypothermia:

https://wartranslated.com/interview-ukrainian-sergeant-soledar/

 

Quote

(Interviewer): Mr.Oleksandr, thank you for agreeing to talk, and I will start with the main question: who controls Soledar now?

 

(Oleksandr): The Armed Forces of Ukraine fully control the situation [the conversation was recorded at 12 o’clock on January 11 – remark]. It would be incorrect to say the current situation as the fighting continues.

It is a bit funny to watch the enemy’s statements because it happens that a bunch of “Wagnerites” will run in, infiltrate into some building in the industrial zone, and, while we have not yet had time to “smoke them out”, will record a video. And the next day, we will find out they are “two hundredth”.

Fighting and operations are going on there now. If I talk in detail about what and how I will harm the guys. But the situation is controlled by the Armed Forces.

 

(I): “Fighting continues” – that is, Russians do not occupy the city?

 

(O): No, they don’t.

 

(I):  Can you talk about the percentage of the city that is currently controlled by the Ukrainian army?

 

(O): It would be incorrect. And besides, the situation can change in half a day. The dynamics are very high.

 

(I):  Are you in Soledar now?

 

(O): I was evacuated two days ago with hypothermia [in the Donetsk region, it is sometimes -17 degrees] and contusion [coughs loudly]. There was an arrival of cannon artillery at us, but after that, I still remained to lead the people. Then, due to hypothermia, I started to shake a lot and could not do anything about it.

 

(I):  How do you, your sworn brothers, feel emotionally about such a difficult defense of the city?

 

(O): Our brigade is already called steel because we have the best guys [smiles]. They are very motivated, and they feel the support of the command. Our commanders, combatants, and brigade commander are always with us on the battlefield. In our country, if a unit goes out, absolutely everyone fights.

 

(I):  And most of you are mobilized?

 

(O): We have mobilized about 80%. In our first composition, there was mostly operational reserve of the Air Assault Troops, that is, people who served in the Air Assault Troops before the full-scale war began. I, for example, did in the 95th. But after the assault actions in the south, the liberation of Mykolaiv and Kherson regions, and the approach to the Dnipro, we had many wounded.

 

Therefore, many new, young guys without experience came. But properly built management (thanks to the brigade) allows you to trust the commanders and motivates people to go to the end. Everyone here knows that he will not be left behind.

 

(I):  Is the 46th Brigade currently the only one holding the defense of Soledar?

 

(O): No, there are neighbors, but we are the ones who show the highest efficiency.

 

Probability of encirclement and quality of the enemy

(I):  The potential encirclement of the city has been actively discussed for several days. As a person from inside this defense, tell us how possible it is?

 

(O): It was, but we are leveling the situation. Our unit did not sink and did not go anywhere. We have been standing, and we are still standing.

 

Our brigade has a very powerful battle management, and all commanders are in their places. Logistics, surveillance, and reconnaissance are well established. This allows us to hold our positions around the clock. We even planned an assault, that is, the restoration of positions.

 

But there was such a situation that our neighboring units on the right and left were not as effective as we were. Therefore, the enemy managed to bypass us on the flanks. Yes, it was possible [potential encirclement], but now the situation is changing.

 

(I):  And, in your opinion, is the situation changing for the better?

 

(O): Yes, so far the dynamics is positive. Let’s see what will happen next. Their tactic is to send people to die, both “prisoners” and “Wagnerites”. As much as I saw their “200s”, they were without first aid kits.

 

There was their car, which was breaking through with ammunition, it was just a suicide… When we approached them, the dead, we saw that the driver and other soldiers were without body armor, without helmets, with one magizine in the machine gun.

 

In very close infantry battles, we heard their commanders shouting: “Not a step back; we will shoot”. We heard and saw it with our own eyes.

 

Wounded “prisoners” talked through the walls with our guys – they said they were paid $ 400 for a “one-way ticket”.

 

(I): There was also information that the Russians brought additional airborne units to the Bakhmut direction. Have you seen them?

 

(O): No, we have not seen any paratroopers. As for the assault groups, i.e. infantry, which engage in combat clashes at close distances of 20-30 meters, we do not see any regular soldiers among them.

 

Perhaps they are somewhere on the second line providing support to infantry groups, but the infantry groups themselves are only “meat”.

 

I do not know how many of them we have destroyed. Just two days ago there was a powerful infantry attack… I do not know why they do it, but we must draw some conclusions. What is the point?

 

(I): Have you discussed the option of leaving the city to avoid encirclement?

 

(O): I am the chief sergeant of the company, such things are not discussed with me. The command probably discussed it, and different options are being prepared.

 

(I): Is the Bakhmut-Siversk highway, which runs through Soledar, currently under Russian fire control?

 

(O): Minus [that is “no” in military slang]. There was such a period, but as far as I know, the situation has stabilized.

 

(I): That is, logistics still work? Is there a way to bring ammunitions, people?

 

(O): Everything, absolutely everything in this direction, works.

Reasons for the breakthrough of Soledar defense and the impact of its possible occupation on Bakhmut

(I): Since August, Soledar was almost an impregnable fortress in the Bakhmut direction, in particular due to the efforts of the 93rd Brigade. At what point did the situation deteriorate sharply? What went wrong?

 

(O): As far as I know, the 93rd Brigade is very powerful and mechanized, with experience in the Donetsk direction, Opytne, Donetsk Airport. They have a lot of experience in both defensive and offensive actions. Therefore, when they stood on their borders, it was not a problem for them to restrain the enemy.

 

I understand that they are replaced by new infantry units, infantry brigades, where there is often a problem with management and control. I cannot say that this is someone’s fault because we are forming all these units in the dynamics, and commanders may not have combat experience.

 

But from what I see, the command is trying to dilute experienced units or quickly send experienced brigades to where there are problems.

 

(I): According to my information, it was a surprise for the Ukrainian military that the Russians broke through the flanks from Yakovlivka, which is located north of Soledar, and Pidhorodne, which is south of Soledar.

 

Do I understand correctly that these were the areas where the newly formed units were located?

 

(O): Yes, they were.

 

(I):  That is, the reason for the breakthrough of Soledar’s defense is that untrained military was deployed in some areas?

 

(O): Perhaps so, but I was not in these units, I do not know exactly about their level of training.

 

But what is the most important thing in a unit? Established communication, level of management, adequacy of commanders, moral and psychological state of people. It is necessary to work on all this before sending the unit to the hot areas.

 

(I): And when did the escalation in Soledar begin – somewhere before the New Year?

 

(O): Somewhere like that because on December 31, we were given the task to go and take the lines on January 1. We could not even celebrate the New Year [smiles].

 

We had just returned from Kurdyumivka [a village south of Bakhmut, the dominant height] where we successfully stormed the enemy positions. More precisely, in front of Kurdyumivka, we regained control there, consolidated our positions, and were replaced by infantry units.

 

(I): If you have already mentioned Kurdyumivka, tell us how the situation is developing south of Bakhmut? Is it true that the Russians are mostly along the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal and managed to cross it in some places?

 

(O): We are not there, but from what I see on the maps – yes, there is such a situation. But it does not bring them much strategic success; it causes more damage to their infantry.

 

Strategically speaking, after the enemy left the Kyiv region, we are winning.

 

Their work in the Donetsk direction is not strategically clear to me. It looks more like political bonuses for certain individuals, in particular Prigozhin, who wants to curry favor with Putin. And to show that the PMC unit has a higher efficiency than regular troops. But this is nothing.

 

I am sure that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will reset this story very soon.

 

(I): Last question: if the Russians push Soledar, how will it affect the defense of Bakhmut, now called the east’s main fortress?

 

(O): Tactically – in no way. I do not see that this will open the possibility for them to surround Bakhmut from that flank or take control of the highway [Bakhmut – Siversk].

 

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10 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

So here's the guy who has been given regular updates from Bakhmut, sans helmet this time. Also, he has his extremely hot sister with him to assist with today's report.

 

Cannot see boobs under her armor, and know all about the Balkan/Eastern EU ugly bomb. need more proof. 

but yeah, cool video. 

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So are we at the point where it's not about the salt mines or whatever for Prigozhin, but rather Prigozhin trying to eek out a victory in Bakhmut to show Putin that he's better than the Russian Army, and should get more resources and have more power/influence over the war, and unfortunately for Russian soldiers, Prigozhin has went full-on sunk-cost fallacy?

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5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So are we at the point where it's not about the salt mines or whatever for Prigozhin, but rather Prigozhin trying to eek out a victory in Bakhmut to show Putin that he's better than the Russian Army, and should get more resources and have more power/influence over the war, and unfortunately for Russian soldiers, Prigozhin has went full-on sunk-cost fallacy?

 

I would argue the entire Putin regime went full on sunk cost fallacy, and everyone else trying to gain power is simply following cues from their leader. 

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7 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

beautiful happy endings GIF

28 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I wonder who they have consulting them on these types of content. You have to be an American of a certain age for that song/commercial to resonate with you.

It’s hitting middle-aged Americans who might be in a position to influence what we provide.  Hell, I could actually picture the original commercials when I heard the song and saw the grainy video.

 

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54 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I wonder who they have consulting them on these types of content. You have to be an American of a certain age for that song/commercial to resonate with you.

Not gonna lie, anytime I hear that song I think about my grandfathers, Dad, uncles and other figures that have been in my life that have motivated me.  Makes me smile and shed a tear or twelve.  Such a great song.  

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Seems risky to attempt to hold those places, but maybe it's just to further degrade them and slow them down? Probably good to note that his info is usually a day or so behind.

 Not sure what to make of this, except it could just reflect Ukrainian soldiers still actively defending in the larger area.

 

 

Edited by KYHorn
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Losing Soledar sucks for Ukraine, but the cost to Russia/Wagner is possibly a Pyrrhic victory according to this guy:

I'm curious to see how the Ukrainians do once they get the Bradleys combined with their additional tanks. That's going to be a big problem for Ivan. 

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So Russia needs $115/barrel to balance their budget and oil is currently trading around $50/barrel. Nice!

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-may-hike-taxes-military-spending-oil-price-weigh-budget-2023-01-13/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

Spoiler

Analysis: Russia may hike taxes as military spending, oil price weigh on budget

Meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Saint Petersburg

[1/3] Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov during a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Saint Petersburg, Russia December 20, 2019. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS/File Photo

  • Oil price needed to balance budget has jumped - analysts
  • G7 has imposed $60 price cap on Russian oil exports
  • Budget strained by higher military, security spending
  • Elections make spending cuts more difficult
  • This content was produced in Russia, where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine

MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Russia is becoming too dependent on oil revenues to support its budget as it ramps up military spending, economists said, warning that the government may have to raise taxes if prices of crude fail to meet expectations this year.

The price of Urals oil - Russia's main export - has plunged more than 20% since early December, when Western nations led by the Group of Seven (G7) imposed a $60 price cap on Russian oil exports to restrict Moscow's ability to finance what it calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine.

Given that the 2023 federal budget is based on a projected Urals price of just over $70 a barrel, and prices are currently trading closer to $50, this could prove problemAs the price cap, Western sanctions and EU embargo make it harder for Russia to export oil, Moscow has relied on China and India - the world's largest and third-largest importers, respectively - to fill the gap.

"The growing dependence of the budget on oil raises concerns," Alfa Bank said in a note that warned a decline in revenue from gas and oil product exports "looms on the horizon."

Analysts say that as the government increased spending by more than a quarter in 2022, in part to finance its military in Ukraine, the oil price required to balance the budget jumped from $67 to $101 a barrel.

When state-owned energy giant Gazprom's (GAZP.MM) 1.85 trillion roubles ($27.5 billion) of dividends and one-off taxes last year are factored in, the actual price of oil needed to balance the books could be as high as $115 a barrel.

Russia's budget hole last year totalled 3.3 trillion roubles ($49 billion), or 2.3% of gross domestic product, and may exceed 2% again in 2023 as the price cap curbs Russia's export revenues, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in December.

TAX HIKES?

"When there is a big gap between the actual price (of oil) and the balancing price, it cannot be sustainably covered by borrowing," said Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank.

"Some measures are needed to adjust fiscal policy, either by cutting spending or looking for additional revenues."

With President Vladimir Putin expected to seek a historic fifth term in an election due in 2024 and regional votes taking place later this year, spending cuts are out of the question, she added.

Last year's budget, which was heavily skewed towards defence spending, has raised the risk of a higher tax burden in the medium term, Renaissance Capital economists said.

Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Sazanov hinted at the possibility of another tax hike in December, suggesting that the government would continue to look at areas of tax potential in 2023.

It is not clear which sectors would face tax rises and to what extent the burden would fall on the population. VAT rates, profit taxes and income tax would not be changed, Sazanov said, but other industries may face a higher tax bill.

"Detailed, substantive analysis allows us to still find resource sectors where high margins are formed and where it is possible to increase the fiscal burden without harming the operational and investment activities of companies," he said.

The finance ministry was not immediately available to comment.

The government has already sharply increased the tax burden on the oil and gas industry for 2023-2025, the biggest such rises in its history, as Russia's 10-month military operations in Ukraine grind on. The measures are expected to net an additional 3.6 trillion roubles for the Russian budget over three years.

However, a Reuters budget analysis shows Moscow will spend a combined 9.4 trillion roubles ($140 billion) on defence and security this year alone - nearly a third of the budget - meaning less money for health, education and research.

The conflict in Ukraine and ensuing barrage of Western sanctions have upended some sectors of Russia's economy, cutting its biggest banks from the SWIFT financial network, curbing its access to technology and restricting its ability to export oil.

While the government and central bank have acknowledged "difficulties", Moscow says its economy is resilient and that sanctions have boomeranged against the West by driving up inflation and energy prices.

($1 = 67.3500 roubles)

 

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

If "Yurt of Invicibility" doesn't somehow show up in the Marvel cinematic universe, someone over there ain't doing their job.

I feel like it has more of a fantasy vibe than MCU, but agree with the sentiment in general, so I'm hoping it can make an appearance in an upcoming season of Mythic Quest or perhaps the new Dungeons & Dragons movie. 

,

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I totally understand why the Abrams isn't right for Ukraine.  But certainly I'm not the only one who gets hard thinking about a battalion of kickass American Abrams tanks flying across the Ukrainian steppe at 50 mph, shooting shitbox T72's like Parliament and his BB gun killing pigeons. 

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8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I totally understand why the Abrams isn't right for Ukraine.  But certainly I'm not the only one who gets hard thinking about a battalion of kickass American Abrams tanks flying across the Ukrainian steppe at 50 mph, shooting shitbox T72's like Parliament and his BB gun killing pigeons. 

DG_zYD9XgAAsrK4.jpg:large

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12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I totally understand why the Abrams isn't right for Ukraine.  But certainly I'm not the only one who gets hard thinking about a battalion of kickass American Abrams tanks flying across the Ukrainian steppe at 50 mph, shooting shitbox T72's like Parliament and his BB gun killing pigeons. 

and the crescendo is these flying in from the flank and finishing everything else off. 

 

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30 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I totally understand why the Abrams isn't right for Ukraine.  But certainly I'm not the only one who gets hard thinking about a battalion of kickass American Abrams tanks flying across the Ukrainian steppe at 50 mph, shooting shitbox T72's like Parliament and his BB gun killing pigeons. 

More like shooting pigeons with a punt gun.

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Shit, if they just want a symbolic gesture to light a fire under Olaf's ass, take one of the armored brigades out of storage in Germany and park the Abrams under a Patriot umbrella in Lviv, then give the AFU the Bradleys, Paladins, and M113s that go with them and let them wreck shop. Your move, Olaf. 

I posted the numbers a few pages back, but a Brigade Combat Team has 87 Abrams, 152 Bradleys, 18 Paladins, and 45 M113s. 

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2 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

Can we send the tanks we used before the turbine powered Abrams?

We have M-60s in storage.  A lot of em, I think.  The Marines used them in Desert Storm, and they could kill Iraqi armor (which was T-62 heavy, I think).  But they're definitely not a top-of-the-line tank, and could get more Ukrainian tank crews killed than it's worth.  But I'm sure some of the older tankers around here (and they'd have to be pretty old) could tell us more.

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51 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The Squirt Yurt. 
 

about those leopards, what follows if Poland goes ahead and sends some to ukraine without German authorization?  No more new contracts?  Unpopular public scolding?

It doesn't just jeopardize their contracts with Germany. All countries have final say so's written into the contracts over where the hardware is sent from the purchasing country. The US especially. But not exclusively. They're as ubiquitous as conduct unbecoming clauses in basketball coach employment contracts. 

Those K2 tanks they're buying from Korea? Korea has final say so if Poland wants to send them somewhere else. 

And it doesn't just jeopardize new equipment purchases. It also jeopardizes existing supply chains to repair and maintain current hardware. From everyone. It's not feasible to broach that part of the contract. It sends a bad signal when you're willing to do that. 

That said, lots of countries are sending old Soviet stock to Ukraine without getting anyone's permission. It just depends on what kind of relationship you're wanting to maintain in the future. 

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

We have M-60s in storage.  A lot of em, I think.  The Marines used them in Desert Storm, and they could kill Iraqi armor (which was T-62 heavy, I think).  But they're definitely not a top-of-the-line tank, and could get more Ukrainian tank crews killed than it's worth.  But I'm sure some of the older tankers around here (and they'd have to be pretty old) could tell us more.

There was a conversion kit developed to add the M1A1 turret to the m60 hull for the export market. Only one prototype was built. But General Dynamics did submit several bids using it and marketed it until the mids 2000s I think. I would assume it could revive production of the kit if there was interest. 

But, we also have a lot of Abrams variants in storage that the Army doesn't want. I'm pretty sure the Army would love nothing more than giving Ukraine a large chunk of its Abrams. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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M1-A1 as the spearhead, M-60's on the flanks. Bradley's with infantry moving forward. Fuck the Russian T-model anything. Leopards can come behind and clean up the carcass. 

Their best is the T-90 and javelins are eating them up. Bring on the T-34. Whoooooo.... Gonna hit me with a JS-1? 

Fuck Russia. Their tanks suck. 

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