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8 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Hasn't the hesitation been that with those extended ranges, the fear that they can hit targets deep in Russia that could create a significant escalation?

That is definitely part of the stated reason. I suspect a big part of it has also simply been that we actually don't have weapon systems available that Ukraine could utilize. ATACMS are a limited resource with no new production and a replacement that is just now starting to be fielded. Our cruise missiles are all designed to be air or sea launched and would require extensive modification to be launched from Ukraine's existing platforms. I suspect for similar reasons that if Ukraine eventually gets JASSM, it will not be the Extended Range variant. 

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I know jack shit about F-16 performance vs it's Russian equivalent generation fleet, but I'm pretty confident it will fuck up whatever it faces. SAMs will be the problem however they can be countermeasured/made to pay for giving away their position. But you don't want to trade F-16s for SAM site 1 to 1.

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10 minutes ago, RPM said:

SAMs will be the problem however they can be countermeasured/made to pay for giving away their position. But you don't want to trade F-16s for SAM site 1 to 1.

That's the rub.  As we saw in Vietnam, layered air defense systems operating in concert can be an effective counter to the most advanced fighters of the day.  To be specific - almost 4K planes lost during that conflict.  

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11 minutes ago, RPM said:

I know jack shit about F-16 performance vs it's Russian equivalent generation fleet, but I'm pretty confident it will fuck up whatever it faces. SAMs will be the problem however they can be countermeasured/made to pay for giving away their position. But you don't want to trade F-16s for SAM site 1 to 1.

We have decoys that the F16 and other platforms can put out that once their SAM's light up actually give us their position.  The problem is, that the Russian air defense essentially is a layered system.  What is active we would know immediately, however, once one layer is destroyed or in the process of being relocated, another system comes on.  Basically, there isn't a scenario, at least initially, in which SAMs wouldn't be a threat.  

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I've read about this before but don't know how far along development really is.

https://www.militaryaerospace.com/power/article/14072339/emp-high-power-electromagnetic-weapons-railguns-microwaves

The article is about EMPs, both denial and as weaponry.  How much scale they can get out of these and effective they are is pure guess work, but in theory the CHAMP system for drones could be extremely effective in this arena.  Basically, it would use EMPs over an area of the battlefield via a drone to render the enemy's electronics useless.  If you had enough of them, and the system is effective, you could render large swaths of areas down to just rifles, grenades and the like.  Basically, you could degrade an enemy to WW1 tech.  

Seeing as though this is hugely cutting edge shit, and that our primary concern is China, these won't be deployed in Ukraine, but nonetheless it's interesting and game changing tech.  

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18 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

3-4 months into the war, sure.

Now, no, Russia has been kicked out of too many areas it conquered last year giving the Ukrainians hope and experience, and they've killed too many civilians, and too many Ukrainians hate Russia.

It's funny - if Russia had not invaded in 2014, had not invaded again last year, and had just kept up their political interference with Ukraine, I could easily see Ukraine resembling Belarus's relationship with Russia and Russian companies would have their hands in all of the major Ukrainian resources.

Why not?  They still have a tough slog ahead of them, coupled with continued civilian casualties, commerce disruption, and if/when they eventually do reclaim the territory the infrastructure will be destroyed.  The post-war clean-up and reconstruction are going to be massively expensive.   Plus there is the chance that the US elects a russian friendly (NATO hostile) compromised leadership as well.   The arrival of the F-16s will help them, but then they still need to learn how to use combined arms in practice even after their arrival and training on the equipment.    I think you are making an assumption of continuity and stability.  Our own political system is under threat.  Hell, we had a coup attempt here and the architects and supporters of which are still in office spreading lies.  At least Germany jailed Adolph after the Beerhall Putsch.  

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1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

Hasn't the hesitation been that with those extended ranges, the fear that they can hit targets deep in Russia that could create a significant escalation?

There are drones blowing shit up across the country already. Not sure why this would change anything other than, "the West gave them these weapons"

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29 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

There are drones blowing shit up across the country already. Not sure why this would change anything other than, "the West gave them these weapons"

Payload capacity and speed to target.  A drone dropping a modified artillery or mortar shell is a different stretch than a cruise missile.

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Quote
German Foreign Ministry calls drone strikes on Russian Federation facilities legal "Russia attacked #Ukraine. Therefore, according to the #UN Charter, Ukraine has the legal right to defend its country and its people. #Russia is violating the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force. Russia is relentlessly bombing civilian objects in Ukraine: granaries, hospitals, churches. Ukraine is defending itself within the framework of international law," - this is how the head of the #German Foreign Ministry Annalena Baerbock responded to the question of journalists about drone attacks on the Russian territory. Baerbock also noted that Ukraine faces the problem of demining huge territories previously occupied by Russia. According to the minister, Russian forces have mined territories in Ukraine "about the size of western Germany" and now #Berlin is discussing with its allies further assistance to #Kyiv in demining.
Quote

ARMY MORALE COLLAPSING soldiers have begun surrendering & deserting in record numbers. Lots of stories of failed operations due to soldiers being drunk/high - like these guys smoking marijuana near Kherson: From where they were later taken prisoner of war (PoW). Many reports of soldiers disobeying their officers’ orders: Like 1916, once just a few units quit, en masse, the trickle will become a river as no one wants to be the last soldier to die in a war that is already lost. The war will end due to Russia’s military, economic, or political collapse. All three are closer than you think: It could happen today.

Edited by MagicSoccerSpray
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3 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Why are you the way you are? That isn't what I said. I said the F-16, in and of itself, isn't a "game changer" in that it doesn't change the dynamics of the fight. It is important they get them, because without replacements to Ukraine's existing fighters and ground attack craft, Russia will be able to assert more air control over the front lines. But getting them is more about keeping the status quo rather than materially shifting the nature of the fight. Very long range cruise missiles are different because they would provide a capability to service targets that right now Ukraine cannot effectively hit.

Below are my prior posts on the subject so you can see the full context. The whole original point is that there has been this idea that if only we provided "x" super weapon system earlier, Ukraine wouldn't have to be doing the hard attritional fighting it is doing now. I don't think that sort of thinking ever reflected the realities of the fighting and capabilities of Russia and Ukraine.

Separately, I also think there is some confusion on the use of the term "game changing." In my opinion, for a weapon system to be considered "game changing," it must provide some novel capability that Ukraine can't replicate with its current assets. That's why HIMARs and GMLRs were originally game changing. It is why Storm Shadow was game changing. F-16s aren't significantly different enough from Ukraine's currently aircraft to be "game changing." Better? Sure. Important? Absolutely, in the same way that continued replacement of tanks and IFVs are important. However, the provision of F-16s does open up the possibility of the provision of certain game changing assets like very long range cruise missiles. 

 

 

 

 

good effort but I'm not awarding you any internet points.

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2 hours ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

There are drones blowing shit up across the country already. Not sure why this would change anything other than, "the West gave them these weapons"

 

2 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

That is exactly why. 

Fuck them.  Yea, we gave them some weapons, what are you (Russia) gonna do about it?   

Is this what we are gonna do when China invades Taiwan?   We gonna play this "its not really our weapons that they are using"  B.S.?   Fuck that, yea it's our weapons, and we gave it to them to use on you, and guess what, we are gonna give them more shit to use on you as long as you insist on trying to take over others land.  And if you don't like it, come start some shit with us and we will give you something legitimate to cry about.  

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3 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Hasn't the hesitation been that with those extended ranges, the fear that they can hit targets deep in Russia that could create a significant escalation?

How would Russia escalate at this point?  If they had anything left to escalate with, it should’ve been used long before now.

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27 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Poland is not fucking around

They learned the correct lesson from all this mess:

Don't rely on other countries for your defense, they're all fair-weather friends and unreliable.

If you want to be left alone, you need to appear strong.

Europe needs a valid military force, might as well be it.

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3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

They learned the correct lesson from all this mess:

Don't rely on other countries for your defense, they're all fair-weather friends and unreliable.

If you want to be left alone, you need to appear strong.

Europe needs a valid military force, might as well be it.

When you have a really shitty neighbor next door, you have to be prepared for some shit.

Quote
an hour ago - 45°17′N 36°31′E

Traffic at Kerch bridge stopped. Reports of explosions in Sevastopol 

 
 
 

 

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/22-august-traffic-at-kerch-bridge-stopped-reports-of-explosions

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Interesting article on the American and British analysts' perceptions of the offensive. I think they make some good points about focusing on the main objective and allocating resources toward that goal. I also appreciated the specific example of the often-used, but vague, comparison between Soviet and NATO/Western style approaches: the issue of keeping competing factions within an army equally supplied. 

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say

American strategists say Ukraine’s troops are too spread out and need to concentrate along the counteroffensive’s main front in the south

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230822&instance_id=100636&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=141347410&segment_id=142644&te=1&user_id=5edae170e2c7f9e85eb5207073ecafed

Spoiler
Rows of marines in military uniform doing planks and push-ups on a dirt road in front of a field growing plants.
Ukrainian marines training in the Zaporizhzhia region before heading to the frontline. American officials say more Ukrainian forces should be near Zaporizhzhia and in the south of the country.Credit...David Guttenfelder for The New York Times
 
 

Rows of marines in military uniform doing planks and push-ups on a dirt road in front of a field growing plants.

Eric SchmittJulian E. BarnesHelene CooperThomas Gibbons-Neff

By Eric SchmittJulian E. BarnesHelene Cooper and Thomas Gibbons-Neff

Eric Schmitt, Julian E. Barnes and Helene Cooper reported from Washington, and Thomas Gibbons-Neff from Kyiv, Ukraine.

Aug. 22, 2023, 1:43 p.m. ET
Sign up for Your Places: Global Update.   All the latest news for any part of the world you select. Get it sent to your inbox.

Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is struggling to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, American and other Western officials say.

The main goal of the counteroffensive is to cut off Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine by severing the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. But instead of focusing on that, Ukrainian commanders have divided troops and firepower roughly equally between the east and the south, the U.S. officials said.

As a result, more Ukrainian forces are near Bakhmut and other cities in the east than are near Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia in the south, both far more strategically significant fronts, officials say.

American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.

 

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Only with a change of tactics and a dramatic move can the tempo of the counteroffensive change, said one U.S. official, who like the other half a dozen Western officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Another U.S. official said the Ukrainians were too spread out and needed to consolidate their combat power in one place.

Nearly three months into the counteroffensive, the Ukrainians may be taking the advice to heart, especially as casualties continue to mount and Russia still holds an edge in troops and equipment.

In a video teleconference on Aug. 10, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; his British counterpart, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin; and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, urged Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, to focus on one main front. And, according to two officials briefed on the call, General Zaluzhnyi agreed.

 
 
Image
 

Sir Tony Radakin wearing a formal British military uniform with many medals pinned to his chest and a white and gold hat.Adm. Sir Tony Radakin of Britain has developed close ties with his Ukrainian counterparts during multiple trips to the country.Credit...Pool photo by Andrew Milligan

 
 

Sir Tony Radakin wearing a formal British military uniform with many medals pinned to his chest and a white and gold hat.

Admiral Radakin’s role has been especially important and not widely appreciated until now, the officials said. General Milley speaks to General Zaluzhnyi every week or so about strategy and Ukrainian military needs. But the Biden administration has prohibited senior U.S. officers from visiting Ukraine for security reasons and to avoid increasing tensions with Moscow. Britain, however, has imposed no such constraints, and Admiral Radakin, a polished officer who served three tours in Iraq, has developed close ties with his Ukrainian counterpart during multiple trips to the country.

 

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American officials say there are indications that Ukraine has started to shift some of its more seasoned combat forces from the east to the south. But even the most experienced units have been reconstituted a number of times after taking heavy casualties. These units rely on a shrinking cadre of senior commanders. Some platoons are mostly staffed by soldiers who have been wounded and returned to fight.

The State of the War

  • A Staggering Toll: The total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war began is nearing 500,000, U.S. officials said.
  • On the Front Line: Despite grueling fighting, Ukrainian commanders say their forces are in better shape now than just months ago, while Russian troops appear worse off.
  • F-16 Fighter Jets: The Netherlands and Denmark said they would donate F-16s to Ukraine — the first countries to do so. The procurement of the American-made fighter jets has been a priority for Kyiv.

Ukraine has penetrated at least one layer of Russian defenses in the south in recent days and is increasing the pressure, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said. It is close to taking control of Robotyne, a village in the south that is near the next line of Russian defenses. Taking the village, American officials said, would be a good sign.

A spokesman for the Ukrainian military did not respond to text messages or phone calls on Tuesday.

But some analysts say the progress may be too little too late. The fighting is taking place on mostly flat, unforgiving terrain, which favors the defenders. The Russians are battling from concealed positions that Ukrainian soldiers often see only when they are feet away. Hours after Ukrainians clear a field of mines, the Russians sometimes fire another rocket that disperses more of them at the same location.

 

Under American war doctrine, there is always a main effort to ensure that maximum resources go to a single front, even if supporting forces are fighting in other areas to hedge against failure or spread-out enemy defenses.

 

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But Ukraine and Russia fight under old Soviet Communist doctrine, which seeks to minimize rivalries among factions of the army by providing equal amounts of manpower and equipment across commands. Both armies have failed to prioritize their most important objectives, officials say.

 
 
Image
 

Two men hold the arms of an elderly woman as she cries and touches a coffin draped in a Ukrainian flag.Valentyna Kovalova’s son, a Ukrainian officer, was killed in combat in the southern frontline with Russia.Credit...Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

 
 

Two men hold the arms of an elderly woman as she cries and touches a coffin draped in a Ukrainian flag.

Ukraine’s continued focus on Bakhmut, the scene of one of the bloodiest battles of the war, has perplexed U.S. intelligence and military officials. Ukraine has invested huge amounts of resources in defending the surrounding Donbas region, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, does not want to appear as though he is giving up on trying to retake lost territory. But U.S. officials say politics must, at least temporarily, take a back seat to sound military strategy.

American strategists say that keeping a small force near the destroyed city is justified to pin down Russian troops and prevent them from using it as a base for attack. But Ukraine has enough troops there to try to retake the area, a move that U.S. officials say would lead to large numbers of losses for little strategic gain.

American officials have told Ukrainian leaders that they can secure the land around Bakhmut with far fewer troops and should reallocate forces to targets in the south.

 

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Ukrainian leaders have defended their strategy and distribution of forces, saying they are fighting effectively in both the east and the south. The large number of troops is necessary to pressure Bakhmut and to defend against concerted Russian attacks in the country’s northeast, they say. Ukrainian commanders are competing for resources and have their own ideas of where they can succeed.

American officials’ criticisms of Ukraine’s counteroffensive are often cast through the lens of a generation of military officers who have never experienced a war of this scale and intensity.

Moreover, American war doctrine has never been tested in an environment like Ukraine’s, where Russian electronic warfare jams communications and GPS, and neither military has been able to achieve air superiority.

American officials said Ukraine has another month to six weeks before rainy conditions force a pause in the counteroffensive. Already in August, Ukraine has postponed at least one offensive drive because of rain.

“Terrain conditions are always fundamental drivers” of military operations, General Milley said in an interview with reporters on Sunday. “Fall and spring are not optimal for combined arms operations.”

 

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Ukrainian soldiers in camouflage uniforms and helmets climbing atop an armored vehicle in a forest.Members of the Third Separate Assault Brigade in Bakhmut last month. Ukraine’s continued focus on Bakhmut, the scene of one of the bloodiest battles of the war, has perplexed U.S. intelligence and military officials.Credit...Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

 
 

Ukrainian soldiers in camouflage uniforms and helmets climbing atop an armored vehicle in a forest.

Wet weather will not stop the fighting, but if Ukraine breaks through Russian lines in the coming weeks, the mud could make it more difficult to capitalize on that success and quickly seize a wide swath of territory, officials said.

More important than the weather, some analysts say, is that Ukraine’s main assault forces may run out of steam by mid- to late September. About a month ago, Ukraine rotated in a second wave of troops to replace an initial force that failed to break through Russian defenses.

Ukraine also shifted its battlefield tactics then, returning to its old ways of wearing down Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles instead of plunging into minefields under fire. In recent days, Ukraine has started tapping into its last strategic reserves — air mobile brigades intended to exploit any breakthrough. While fighting could continue for months, U.S. and other Western officials say Ukraine’s counteroffensive would not have enough decisive firepower to reclaim much of the 20 percent of the country that Russia occupies.

U.S. officials say they do not believe the counteroffensive is doomed to failure but acknowledge that the Ukrainians have not had the success that they or their allies hoped for when the push began.

 

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“We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate,” Jake Sullivan, the White House’s national security adviser, said on Tuesday. “We continue to support Ukraine in its effort to take territory as part of this counteroffensive, and we are seeing it continue to take territory on a methodical systematic basis.”

While a smaller, dug-in Russian force has performed better in the south than American officials and analysts anticipated, the Kremlin still has systemic problems. Russian troops suffer from poor supply lines, low morale and bad logistics, a senior U.S. military official said.

But Russia is keeping with its traditional way of fighting land wars in Europe: performing poorly in the opening months or years before adapting and persevering as the fighting drags on.

By contrast, Ukrainian troops, in launching the counteroffensive, have the steeper hill to climb, the official said. It took them more than two months — rather than the week or so that officials initially thought — to get through the initial Russian defenses.

Several U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine to make it about halfway to the Sea of Azov by winter, when cold weather may dictate another pause in the fighting. The senior U.S. official said that would be a “partial success.” Some analysts say the counteroffensive will fall short of even that more limited goal.

 

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Even if the counteroffensive fails to reach the coast, officials and analysts say if it can make it far enough to put the coastal road within range of Ukrainian artillery and other strikes, it could cause even more problems for Russian forces in the south who depend on that route for supplies.

Speaking to reporters on a flight to Rome on Sunday, General Milley said the past two months of the counteroffensive have been “long, bloody and slow.”

“It’s taken longer than Ukraine had planned,” he said. “But they are making limited progress.”

 

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52 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

 

Fuck them.  Yea, we gave them some weapons, what are you (Russia) gonna do about it?   

Is this what we are gonna do when China invades Taiwan?   We gonna play this "its not really our weapons that they are using"  B.S.?   Fuck that, yea it's our weapons, and we gave it to them to use on you, and guess what, we are gonna give them more shit to use on you as long as you insist on trying to take over others land.  And if you don't like it, come start some shit with us and we will give you something legitimate to cry about.  

Regular Season Reaction GIF by NBA

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1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

i mean, it says it right there: "complete fuckery." plain as day

Well, complete fuckery is everywhere, as the head of Roscosmos had this to say about their recent lunar lander crashing into the moon:

Quote

Borisov has offered assurance that Roscosmos can get back on track. He said the space agency will accelerate its next two moon missions: Luna 26 and Luna 27, which could give Roscosmos all the science it lost with the failure of Luna 25.

Russia wants to accelerate their next to missions to the moon

Think Tim Robinson GIF by NETFLIX

Edited by atomheartbevo
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I don't know anything about de-mining strategies but I did see a lot of blown up vehicles in Iraq and that kind of damage indicates the roller didn't trigger it as intended.  

I would also think we have tons of surplus mine rollers that can be affixed to most any vehicle we could give them. 

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Well, complete fuckery is everywhere, as the head of Roscosmos had this to say about their recent lunar lander crashing into the moon:

Russia wants to accelerate their next to missions to the moon

Think Tim Robinson GIF by NETFLIX

Accelerate them right into the lunar surface. 

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9 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Why are you the way you are? That isn't what I said. I said the F-16, in and of itself, isn't a "game changer" in that it doesn't change the dynamics of the fight. It is important they get them, because without replacements to Ukraine's existing fighters and ground attack craft, Russia will be able to assert more air control over the front lines. But getting them is more about keeping the status quo rather than materially shifting the nature of the fight. Very long range cruise missiles are different because they would provide a capability to service targets that right now Ukraine cannot effectively hit.

Below are my prior posts on the subject so you can see the full context. The whole original point is that there has been this idea that if only we provided "x" super weapon system earlier, Ukraine wouldn't have to be doing the hard attritional fighting it is doing now. I don't think that sort of thinking ever reflected the realities of the fighting and capabilities of Russia and Ukraine.

Separately, I also think there is some confusion on the use of the term "game changing." In my opinion, for a weapon system to be considered "game changing," it must provide some novel capability that Ukraine can't replicate with its current assets. That's why HIMARs and GMLRs were originally game changing. It is why Storm Shadow was game changing. F-16s aren't significantly different enough from Ukraine's currently aircraft to be "game changing." Better? Sure. Important? Absolutely, in the same way that continued replacement of tanks and IFVs are important. However, the provision of F-16s does open up the possibility of the provision of certain game changing assets like very long range cruise missiles. 

 

 

 

 

@Dahobbs has an excellent understanding and is the best poster here on aircraft and what they will offer Ukraine.

F-16s are important first because we have them and second because they can use weapons we have in stock. Yes, if we gave them an Air Force worth of F-16s they’d be a game changer because of sheer numbers but that isn’t happening. 
 

I’d rather fly one than a MiG-29, yes, but they don’t introduce more capabilities than what the current MiG fleet offers. And any time we are speaking about U.S. platforms remember that they are designed to be used with our other platforms and systems  that they may not have. 

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1 hour ago, Bevo said:

I personally would prefer that they get F18s - First, F18s are 2 more than F16s. 2 more is a lot when it comes to planes. Second, I could post Top Gun Maverick gifs without getting grief from the board. F16 movie gifs are inferior.

Yeah, I mean... what's the best they got... Iron Eagle?

iron-eagle.gif

Oof.

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