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1 hour ago, Viper said:

The New York Times tells how EU leaders danced over Orban to convince him to lift the block on the €50 billion package to Ukraine.

It was a game of good cop and bad cop, writes the NYT. Some leaders jokingly told Orban they would send him bills for the nights they spent with him in Brussels trying to persuade him to support funding for Ukraine. Others were not joking and said that they would begin the procedure for excluding Hungary from EU procedures. Still others offered him a friendly late-night drink so he could complain about how the evil European bureaucracy had united against him for ideological reasons...

On Wednesday evening, Orban met with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, his comrade in far-right ideology. It was a meeting over a bottle of champagne on green velvet armchairs in the premier room of the exemplary five-star Amigo Hotel in the heart of Brussels. Meloni gently convinced Orbán that it would be much more profitable for him to join the EU’s common line, it would be better for everyone.

... The EU is blocking €20 billion from Hungary due to problems with corruption and democracy caused by Orban's 17 years in power. The EU will not release these funds to Orban in exchange for the Ukraine deal.

 

In parallel, at the other end of the street at the EU headquarters, a meeting of the rest of the EU leaders was taking place. Orbán was not there. This was a signal to Orbán: the offers from Meloni and Macron were the most he could get. Otherwise, they will agree without him.

Orban capitulated.

56 minutes ago, Parliament said:

That motivation makes sense.  It also suggests he's totally out of touch with the zeitgeist, and has been spending the last 3 years sniffing his own farts.

Once again, welcoming to see the EU Leadership ... leading.

And, for giving me a reason to dust off some older footage of Giorgia Meloni sharing her passionate support of Ukraine with her audience. 

 

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1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

But watch out for all the unexploded ordnance.

Don’t forget, large areas of France are still classified as danger zones because of unexploded WW1 artillery shells.

I was fortunate enough to go to Omaha beach last summer. Spent the entire day at museums and the cemetery. Quite humbling and a great memory.

I expected it to be closed off due to whatever ordnance was still there but nope, I walked right into the surf and curled my toes in the sand.

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TLDR: Russian soldiers don’t bother to warn other Russian soldiers. Speaking of Krynky

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/02/ukrainian-troops-killed-the-most-dangerous-man-in-krynky-a-russian-drone-commander-it-was-their-cue-to-go-on-the-attack/?sh=697169626928

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The battle for Krynky, where the Ukrainian marine corps hangs onto a narrow bridgehead on the left bank of the wide Dnipro River in southern Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast, largely is a drone battle.

Both the Russians and Ukrainians surveil and strike at each other with small first-person-view drones, on some days filling the air with scores of FPVs.

Quote

So it was a big deal when, in mid-January, a Ukrainian drone team hunted down and killed an ace Russian drone pilot with the call-sign “Moisey.” Short for “Moses.”

Taking out Moses shifted the momentum in the Krynky battle. “After Moisey’s group was disabled, the enemy carries out rotations into the settlement without any problems,” one Russian correspondent complained in a missive translated by @wartranslated.

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For months after first motoring across the Dnipro in mid-October, Ukrainian marines from the 35th Brigade struggled to expand their bridgehead. Sure, artillery and drones covered the marines from the right bank, rebuffing nearly daily Russian counterattacks. But the marines couldn’t build up sufficient mass for their own successful attacks.

Moses was the main reason why. Flying two-pound, explosives-laden FPV drones from a two-story house just 500 feet west of the front line in Krynky, Moses ruthlessly hounded the small boats and amphibious tractors the Ukrainians counted on to resupply and reinforce their bridgehead.

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The fight for Krynky isn’t a “suicide mission.” Mostly, it’s an attrition trap for Russian troops in Kherson. Repeatedly trying and failing to dislodge the Ukrainians in Krynky, the Russians have lost at least 157 tanks, fighting vehicles and howitzers and potentially thousands of troops, while destroying just 24 Ukrainian weapons—artillery, mostly—and killing or maiming probably a few hundred marines and boat crew.

But that’s not to say the battle strictly is positional, with neither side gaining ground. After killing the most dangerous Russian in Krynky, a drone commander, the Ukrainians have the momentum—and they’re advancing.

 

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3 hours ago, PTINS said:

Once again, welcoming to see the EU Leadership ... leading.

And, for giving me a reason to dust off some older footage of Giorgia Meloni sharing her passionate support of Ukraine with her audience. 

At first, I didn't believe she was Italian because she wasn't using her hands enough. But then the 0:30 mark hit ,,,

Too bad they cut out the part where she explained to Parliament that they didn't need to send Ukraine all their money and weapons, just enough for the defenders to "wet their beak a little."

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Someone needs to develop FPV drone countermeasures for the US consumer market asap. Some neckbearded asshole is going to build a few of these and plow them into cars and homes and create a new incel trend. 

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Someone needs to develop FPV drone countermeasures for the US consumer market asap. Some neckbearded asshole is going to build a few of these and plow them into cars and homes and create a new incel trend. 

Damn. I have to build a cope cage for my sedan?
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Someone needs to develop FPV drone countermeasures for the US consumer market asap. Some neckbearded asshole is going to build a few of these and plow them into cars and homes and create a new incel trend. 

They already exist. Problem is you have to have a known area you’re trying to defend for them to be effective.
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Always a good sign your Special Military Operation is going well right before a Presidential “election”.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/03/europe/journalists-moscow-military-mobilization-intl/index.html

Quote

A number of people, including journalists from foreign press organizations, have been detained in Moscow after authorities cracked down on protesters at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s election headquarters, independent outlets reported Saturday.

The protest was organized by the wives of mobilized men amid a growing movement of women who are demanding that their husbands and sons are returned home from fighting in Ukraine. Video seen by CNN shows Russian authorities detaining several people wearing “Press” vests near Red Square.

Quote

The “500 days of mobilization” rally brought women to the walls of the Kremlin before moving to Putin’s nearby election headquarters, it was reported. The independent Russian news outlet SOTAvision posted on their Telegram channel that a correspondent saw security forces “snatching random people from the crowd, and only men.”

At least 27 people, only one of them a protester, were driven in a police van to Kitay-Gorod station where they are currently being held, according OVD-info, a group that monitors Russian repression. OVD-info said they dispatched a lawyer to visit the detainees but was denied access.

Quote

Independent Russian media group Mediazona reported Saturday that among those held are journalists working for Kommersant, France Press and Spiegel, as well as human rights activists.

Another seven journalists covering the rally were taken to the Basmanny police station, OVD-info said. Among them is the representative of the Japanese television company “Fuji” Andrei Zaiko, they report.

 

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57 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Always a good sign your Special Military Operation is going well right before a Presidential “election”.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/03/europe/journalists-moscow-military-mobilization-intl/index.html

 

 

From your highlights, those protests look pretty small. OTOH, I don't know what a large protest looks like when the police continue to detain all the men and send them to the front lines.

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7 minutes ago, Bevo said:

From your highlights, those protests look pretty small. OTOH, I don't know what a large protest looks like when the police continue to detain all the men and send them to the front lines.

They maybe small, but if they aren’t touching the wives/mothers, that shows some concern on the part of the Russian officials that things could escalate.  

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27 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Russia is now using current/former convicts in Storm V units. They're forced to fight until the end of the "SMO", the 6 months and a pardon deal is gone.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68140873

That’s some serious FAFO energy going on. I’d imagine more than a few officers and NCOs are going to get fragged, since it’s not like they’ll be sent to prison.  That’s also some serious desperation, because they have no reason to follow orders if there’s no pardon waiting for them.

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10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Are there Texans or other Americans who think some of Texas’s ports aren’t warm water?  Or is it just Russian bots.

There is a damn good chance that 90+% of the rest of country hears that and only thinks of California, Florida, Puerto Rico and Hawaii.  

 

Hell I would bet a large sum of money, if you ask 1,000 Bostonian's, " Is Boston Harbor a warm water harbor" at least 90% of them are going to answer fuck no, its cold as shit. 

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59 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

There is a damn good chance that 90+% of the rest of country hears that and only thinks of California, Florida, Puerto Rico and Hawaii.  

Hell I would bet a large sum of money, if you ask 1,000 Bostonian's, " Is Boston Harbor a warm water harbor" at least 90% of them are going to answer fuck no, its cold as shit. 

Agreed, but as the posts @Viper mentioned pointed out (besides the “888” thing the bots were using to recognize each other), Americans don’t think in terms of warm water ports, we just think in terms of ports.  Even when we were just the thirteen colonies, we still had warm water ports.

This is just the tip of the iceberg though - this kind of disinformation from Russian bots is ramping up big time, and right now it’s focused on reducing aid to Ukraine.

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27 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Agreed, but as the posts @Viper mentioned pointed out (besides the “888” thing the bots were using to recognize each other), Americans don’t think in terms of warm water ports, we just think in terms of ports.  Even when we were just the thirteen colonies, we still had warm water ports.

This is just the tip of the iceberg though - this kind of disinformation from Russian bots is ramping up big time, and right now it’s focused on reducing aid to Ukraine.

It's just an anecdote, but I would be very interested in an actual study on this

 

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27 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Orban is such a petty little man. From the article:

Following the session on Monday, Agnes Vadai, a lawmaker with the liberal Democratic Coalition party, said that Orbán's conduct has “put Hungary into a very humiliating position,” and that there was “no reason” for his government to have blocked Sweden's NATO membership.

“I think that it’s very personal for Orbán, and it’s also very irrational what is he doing despite all the pressure that’s coming,” she told The Associated Press. “He himself should understand that (Sweden's membership) is going to serve the interests and the security of the Hungarian society.”

Hungarian officials have indicated that Fidesz lawmakers won't support holding a vote until Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson accepts an invitation by Orbán to visit Budapest to negotiate on the matter. Kristersson has said that he will make the trip, but only after Hungary approves his country's NATO membership.

Fidesz said in a statement on Monday that ratification of Sweden’s NATO accession can take place during a regular session of parliament, “but we are expecting the Swedish prime minister to visit Hungary first.”

“If this is an important issue for the Swedes, the Swedish prime minister will obviously come to Budapest,” the party said.

Hungary's parliament is scheduled to reconvene on Feb. 26. But Vadai, the lawmaker, said that there was no guarantee that Orbán's party would commit to a swift approval.

“I’m not sure whether the opening session will start with the Swedish ratification, unfortunately,” she said.

 

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1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Orban is such a petty little man. From the article:

Following the session on Monday, Agnes Vadai, a lawmaker with the liberal Democratic Coalition party, said that Orbán's conduct has “put Hungary into a very humiliating position,” and that there was “no reason” for his government to have blocked Sweden's NATO membership.

“I think that it’s very personal for Orbán, and it’s also very irrational what is he doing despite all the pressure that’s coming,” she told The Associated Press. “He himself should understand that (Sweden's membership) is going to serve the interests and the security of the Hungarian society.”

Hungarian officials have indicated that Fidesz lawmakers won't support holding a vote until Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson accepts an invitation by Orbán to visit Budapest to negotiate on the matter. Kristersson has said that he will make the trip, but only after Hungary approves his country's NATO membership.

Fidesz said in a statement on Monday that ratification of Sweden’s NATO accession can take place during a regular session of parliament, “but we are expecting the Swedish prime minister to visit Hungary first.”

“If this is an important issue for the Swedes, the Swedish prime minister will obviously come to Budapest,” the party said.

Hungary's parliament is scheduled to reconvene on Feb. 26. But Vadai, the lawmaker, said that there was no guarantee that Orbán's party would commit to a swift approval.

“I’m not sure whether the opening session will start with the Swedish ratification, unfortunately,” she said.

 

Treat Orban and his party with the full measure of respect they deserve.

Specifically, the Swedish PM should visit Hungary.  He should make whatever promises are necessary to obtain a NATO approval vote.

Then, once the vote is concluded, he should keep precisely 0.0% of those promises, because they were extracted under duress by an illegitimate government working in tandem with Russia.  And we NATO states don't hold hands with Russia.  He should also tell Orban "lick my taint" in Swedish, which I bet sounds pretty funny.

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Treat Orban and his party with the full measure of respect they deserve.

Specifically, the Swedish PM should visit Hungary.  He should make whatever promises are necessary to obtain a NATO approval vote.

Then, once the vote is concluded, he should keep precisely 0.0% of those promises, because they were extracted under duress by an illegitimate government working in tandem with Russia.  And we NATO states don't hold hands with Russia.  He should also tell Orban "lick my taint" in Swedish, which I bet sounds pretty funny.

Indeed it does: https://translate.google.com/?sl=en&tl=sv&text=Lick my taint.&op=translate

image.thumb.png.0f5bc9ea5e50fb402e8f446f2edae569.png

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20 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

Translation from a Reddit poster:

Quote

 

Here is a transcript, please keep in mind that my Russian is rusty. UA ist the Ukrainian soldiers and RU is the Russian POWs:

UA: "There is another one of these f****.

And now documents, I want you to very slowly take out your documents with one hand.

Very slowly. "

RU: "Brother"

UA: "I am not your brother you b****"

RU: hard to understand

UA: "All right I will open it and help you get out the documents

If you move even a bit I will f*** you up, do you understand?

Do we understand each other?

We understand each other."

UA: "Here is another one. The 4th.

We will now evacuate you"

UA2: "Come out, come out of there, we will not come to you"

UA: "This is Max and that's me.

Everything is f***** you don't even know.

God damn Avdiivka"

UA: "Crawl to me

A second one, a second b****.

Crawl to me

I will ask you questions and you will answer?

Do you have any granades or other shit?"

RU: "no no "

UA: "Hands on the floor and head down"

UA: "There is the 3rd and 4th, it is just f*****

Listen to me, listen. I will ask you a question and you f*** will answer understood?

Crawl on the floor"

 

 

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https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/5/7440370/

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that the situation on the front line has reached a deadlock due to delays in the supply of military equipment.

Source: Zelenskyy in an interview with the Italian TV channel Rai1

Details: The president said: "As far as the war on the ground is concerned, there is a stalemate, that’s a fact" because "there have been delays with equipment, and delays mean mistakes".

Quote: "We are fighting against terrorists who have one of the largest armies in the world. Ammunition is not enough – we need modern equipment."

More details: Zelenskyy noted, however, that the naval operation has "achieved positive results".

"Russia has lost a lot of ships, and we’ve managed to set up a grain corridor in the Black Sea, so this pragmatic part of the operation that impacts the economy has been carried out positively," the president stressed.

He also pointed out that the Russian army has been unable to advance significantly and has been stopped.

"Over [the last] two years, the important thing is that we have managed to defend our state. About 26% of the country's territory is still under occupation, but we see that the Russian army is unable to make significant progress. We stopped them," Zelenskyy said.

Background:

  • Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said in an interview with The Economist this week that the situation at the front has reached a stalemate when neither side can advance because they are technologically equipped at the same level. 
  • Ihor Zhovkva, Deputy Head of the Office of the President, commenting on an article by Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said that the military should not talk publicly about what is happening at the front.

 

News on the leadership changes we've been expecting:

Zelensky Hints at Major Shake-Up of Ukraine’s Government
The president said a “reset” was needed to revive the struggling war effort, adding that his plans were “about the direction of the country’s leadership” and not just about replacing his top general.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that a broad overhaul of the country’s military and civilian leadership was needed to reboot the war effort against Russia, suggesting that a major shake-up of his government was imminent.

Mr. Zelensky’s comments, in a broadcast on Sunday night, indicated that his plans would likely go beyond replacing the top military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny. And they signaled a search for a new strategy among Ukraine’s leadership at a precarious moment, with depleted Ukrainian forces on the defensive and leaders in Kyiv waiting to see whether the United States will provide much-needed military and financial assistance.

“A reset, a new beginning is necessary,” Mr. Zelensky told the Italian media outlet Rai News. “I have something serious in mind, which is not about a single person but about the direction of the country’s leadership.”

cont'd:

Spoiler

Friction between the military and the civilian government represents the most serious schism in Ukraine’s leadership since the start of the war almost two years ago. The acrimony, which has been building for months, seemed to reach a breaking point last week, when Mr. Zelensky summoned General Zaluzhny for a meeting to tell him he was being fired, only to back off at least temporarily, according to Ukrainian officials familiar with the discussion.

Heightening the tension in Kyiv is the prospect of a new mobilization bill that could lead to the drafting of up to 500,000 troops. The bill, under debate in the Ukrainian Parliament, could be politically unpopular with the country’s war-weary citizenry.

Amid the speculation about his future, General Zaluzhny’s only public comment Monday was a cryptic Facebook message to a top deputy, General Serhiy Shaptala, reminiscing about collaboration through two years of war. “We can be sure that we will never feel shame,” Mr. Zaluzhny wrote.

The plans to reshuffle the civilian government signify a break with nearly two years of continuity in Mr. Zelensky’s wartime administration as he had mostly left in place ministers serving before Russia’s full-scale invasion. Before that, his government had been a revolving door of ministers.

With American aid stalled, political analysts have suggested that Mr. Zelensky might promote Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, who is seen as being in favor with the Biden administration, to a senior position in Kyiv. The U.S. government has been pushing for overhauls to strengthen anti-corruption safeguards on the billions of dollars in financial and military aid Ukraine is receiving during the war.

On Monday evening, the minister for veterans’ affairs, Yulia Laputina, submitted a letter of resignation to Parliament, without explanation. It was unclear if the resignation was related to the government reset Mr. Zelensky said he was considering.

Mr. Zelensky’s plans for a shake-up come after months of bloody, inconclusive fighting that have taken a toll on the nation’s mood, and dented his own popularity ratings. A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in December found that 62 percent of Ukrainians trust Mr. Zelensky, down from 84 percent earlier in the war.

On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces are at perhaps their weakest point since the summer of 2022. Short of ammunition and personnel, they are struggling to hold back renewed Russian offensives across the front, with the epicenter of the fighting around the battered city of Avdiivka in the eastern Donetsk region.

Russian soldiers, using heavy cloud cover to evade detection by Ukrainian surveillance drones, managed to break into the northern outskirts of the city in recent days, according to Ukrainian soldiers in the area.

They are increasingly threatening a vital supply line and Ukraine’s control over the city. The fall of Avdiivka would represent the Russian forces’ most significant victory since they took Bakhmut in May, and it would open up new lines of assault in the Kremlin’s bid to seize the entire eastern Donbas region.

It could also free up resources for another Russian push taking place several hundred miles to the north, in the Kharkiv region.

Moscow has amassed more than 40,000 troops and hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles near Kupiansk, part of what Ukrainian military commanders said is an intensifying bid to retake territory in Kharkiv that Russian forces lost in a Ukrainian offensive more than a year ago.

The Ukrainian defense has been hindered by the suspension of vital American military assistance, with Republican lawmakers in the House of Representatives blocking repeated efforts to provide new funding.

The lack of assistance has not only resulted in a critical shortage of artillery and other weapons, but has made planning for the future exceedingly difficult.

At the same time, Ukraine is searching for a strategy to break out of the deadlock in the trench fighting, lest it be cornered into negotiations on a settlement on unfavorable terms, said Mykhailo Samus, a deputy director at the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, a military research organization in Kyiv. He said in an interview that the coming year might bring Ukraine’s last chance to shift the momentum of the war.

Even before the impasse in Washington, newly committed aid to Ukraine had dropped almost 90 percent between August and October compared with the same period in 2022, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institute.

Senate Republicans and Democrats on Sunday unveiled a $118.3 billion bill that tied $60 billion in security aid for Ukraine to assistance for Israel as well as U.S. border security reforms. However, Speaker Mike Johnson, who had insisted on linking the disparate issues, has said the bill would be “dead on arrival” in the Republican-controlled House.

Mr. Biden urged lawmakers on Sunday to pass the legislation, saying that “if we don’t stop Putin’s appetite for power and control in Ukraine, it will go beyond Ukraine, and the cost to America will rise.”

Mr. Zelensky’s frustrations with General Zaluzhny have grown over the past year, as the fighting has bogged down in bloody, static trench warfare. But Mr. Zelensky has moved cautiously.

Replacing the military’s commanding general amid a Russian offensive along nearly the entire eastern front carries risks, as General Zaluzhny is well-regarded by soldiers and junior officers. His removal would be the most significant change in military leadership after the invasion.

“Soldiers see in him a leader, him and nobody else,” said an army major who asked to be identified only by his first name, Bohdan. Other officers have said that the army, respectful of hierarchy, would adapt quickly.

The general’s dismissal could also fuel concerns about instability in Kyiv’s wartime leadership and could be used by Russian propagandists to try to discredit Mr. Zelensky.

After General Zaluzhny, the highest-profile military leaders in Ukraine are Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the military intelligence agency, and General Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of ground forces.

Mr. Zelensky may be trying to mute the potential backlash against firing General Zaluzhny by positioning it as just one move among a broader realignment.

“When we talk about this, I mean a replacement of a series of state leaders, not just in a single sector like the military,” Mr. Zelensky said in the broadcast on Sunday, when asked about reports that he planned to replace General Zaluzhny. “If we want to win, we must all push in the same direction, convinced of victory.”

Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, said that the White House had been consulted about possible changes in Ukraine’s leadership and would not weigh in on personnel decisions.

“It’s the sovereign right of Ukraine and the right of the president of Ukraine to make his personnel decisions.” he said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

 

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I'm still trying to figure out what's up with this side conflict in Sudan. Is it just about the gold for Russia? @InkaUtexas Have you heard anything new through your contacts?

I just find it fascinating that they're fighting there too. Ukraine's reach is impressive, and one wonders what they'll be able to do if they ever get into NATO.

 

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Not sure how reliable this YouTube channel is, but it discusses the huge number of Russian soldiers that have surrendered. At first it said the number was about 17k, later it says up to 35k. A Russian commander (sergeant) surrendered himself and all of the troops under his command. Ukraine has an "I want to Live" hotline, apparently a large number of Russians are taking up their offer:

CHIEF

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