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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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40 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Agreed.  And that's why this has very little chance of ending anywhere close to "well".  Short of Ukraine surrendering to Putin and Russia, there is no off ramp for Putin.  He's backed into a corner and it's not going to get better for him.  He's losing men and equipment he cannot replace.  Period. 

Once the Russians start getting pushed back into Russia, he'll launch a tactical nuke.  Then....watch out, shit will get uglier than it's ever been. 

I think NATO forces amassed along the borders, plus rhetoric, are making it clear that WMD on civilians is go time for NATO.

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This ties into it - Frontline did a documentary/show this month called Putin's Road to War and this is Julia Ioffe's full interview (it was excerpted for the documentary, and in the documentary you don't hear her being asked questions).   It's long (45+ minutes),  You've probably seen her in the news Julia Ioffe was born in Russia and lived there in her early years, and has spent her life studying and talking/writing about it and she's been making the rounds since this started.
In the full interview, she starts with the weird-ass national security council briefing that Putin had televised before the invasion, where he dressed down one of the intelligence service heads..  She talks a lot about how this is resembling Stalin's purges and the Soviet Union in the 1930s and 1940s, and goes into detail about Putin's inner circle, and how it used to be really large, and had people that he had known for decades, that could push back when he pushed a bad idea, and the group had a lot of different opinions on various things, but these days he's basically surrounded by a very small circle of people that are Yes Men and only share his views. 
She talks about how all of the people in that weird-ass council meeting were all afraid of him.
She also talks about his paranoia - during the worst of COVID, he would have people who wanted to see him in person stay isolated in hotels for weeks (including I think the President of Kazakhstan among others) and people would get sprayed with a mist that would kill it, etc.
This is the really telling part, that she ends with ( [mention=593]Brisketexan[/mention] will appreciate this)
“What he has opened up with this invasion is unthinkable,” Ioffe tells FRONTLINE. “And because he is losing and because the sanctions and the Ukrainians are humiliating him, because he is backed into a corner, he is the most dangerous he has ever been, because it is now existential for him.” 
 
 
 


Since you said @Brisketexan would appreciate, I kept watching for the sweaty hug that didn’t happen. I am disappoint. Ioffe looks to be his wheelhouse so I was sure.
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1 minute ago, Handcruser said:

Huge shoutout to MillerEP for all the twitter links and translations. It is much appreciated.

Word.

I don't have the patience to scan all the various twitter feeds you guys are looking at and sifting through.  So this thread serves as the "Asshole's Digest" version, which suits me perfectly...

 

 

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Speaking of gambling, Ioffe has referred to Putin several times as really being "just a gambler who won big" and that he's not necessarily the manipulative genius that everybody likes to make him out to be.

he basically came into power with oil at about $40 and by the end of his second term as president it was at $140.  that enabled russia to pay off its external debts and buy peace at home. 

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27 minutes ago, 686 said:

Since you said @Brisketexan would appreciate, I kept watching for the sweaty hug that didn’t happen. I am disappoint. Ioffe looks to be his wheelhouse so I was sure.

 

Well, her background kinda puts her out of my wheelhouse:

"Ioffe attended Princeton University and graduated magna cum laude with an A.B. in history in 2005 after completing a 152-page-long senior thesis, titled "Selling Utopia: Soviet Propaganda and the Spanish Civil War,""

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

Newsflash: Everyone basically outside of the Communist Party in Moscow had Nazi sympathizers. 
Here’s one of America’s great hero’s as well as  a former King of England:

CEDEF1EB-8BF0-4D4A-A39D-A6669D4D5F36.jpeg

I cut Charles Lindbergh some slack because he flew P-38s in combat against the Japanese in the Pacific.

Some of the interviews with those who flew with him said that even in his 40s, he was one of the best fighter pilots they ever saw, easily outflying pilots half his age.

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Well, her background kinda puts her out of my wheelhouse:

"Ioffe attended Princeton University and graduated magna cum laude with an A.B. in history in 2005 after completing a 152-page-long senior thesis, titled "Selling Utopia: Soviet Propaganda and the Spanish Civil War,""

DQU70gbW0AAjaSt.jpg:large

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I cut Charles Lindbergh some slack because he flew P-38s in combat against the Japanese in the Pacific.

Some of the interviews with those who flew with him said that even in his 40s, he was one of the best fighter pilots they ever saw, easily outflying pilots half his age.

 

consultant

 After the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Lindbergh sought to be recommissioned in the United States Army Air Forces. The Secretary of War, Henry L. Stimson, declined the request on instructions from the White House

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1 hour ago, ABSR said:

The only off ramp I see is for him to declare victory.  He says he has crushed the Ukrainian Nazi threat and He pulls back into a controlling position of the Donbas and Luhansk territories which he says need Russian protection (basically annexes them).  He has to pull back into Crimea as well as he can't control beyond that territory.   He also strategically moves out of the other regions as they were needed to distract Ukraine from his only true goals but he never intended to conquer Ukraine.

So"Mission Accomplished" against the Nazi's and freeing the Russian people in Donbas and Luhansk!   Then he digs in and works on defending those borders he created.

Next is to let his sympathizers try and weasel Russia's way back into the world economy.

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Zero chance of that happening with Putin still in power.  There are far too many videos of dead children.  And that's the problem, even if there's a path to "success" for Russia, there's no such path for Putin.  How will he react to that?

He does have a bit off a "Mission Accomplished" off ramp, but that window is closing rapidly the more Russians soldiers die, and the more the Russians realize what is going on there.  Right now, a shit-ton of the Russian populace really has no clue how bad things are, even if they are using VPNs, etc.  

The bigger problem for him is I don't think Ukraine is willing to give up territory to appease him at this point.  They've given up too much blood, and they've shown that he's just a schoolyard bully who can't take a punch.

And while Putin has been feeding in his best troops and his best equipment, we haven't even given Ukraine some of our best stuff (the Switchblade for starters), but it's on the way. 

And I don't think Ukraine is willing to rest as long as Putin is in power.  If he bails and pulls his troops back to the territories he claims/recognizes, the Ukrainians will be wondering when he'll attack again, and how bad it will be next time.  No point in giving him time to build a force better suited to fighting Ukraine.

 

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3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

consultant

 After the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Lindbergh sought to be recommissioned in the United States Army Air Forces. The Secretary of War, Henry L. Stimson, declined the request on instructions from the White House

It was kept on the down low because senior commanders didn't want him shot down, so he and those around him somewhat covered it up.

One of the unit histories (307th Bomb Group) that mentions him is below (depending on who you ask, he flew from 30 to 50 combat missions and had at least one confirmed kill).  It was on his P-38 missions that he increased their range through some tweaks of the engines/throttles.

http://www.charleslindbergh.com/history/b24.asp

Quote

On May 22, 1944, Lindbergh flew his first combat mission, escorting TBFs to Rabaul with a Marine Corsair squadron and strafing assigned ground targets before starting home. Before returning to Guadalcanal on June 10 he had flown 13 missions to Northern Solomon and Rabaul targets from Green and Emirau islands.

Following a week of technical rep duties on Guadalcanal, and anxious to evaluate twin engine fighter performance, Lindbergh moved on to Hallandia where he attached himself to the 475th Fighter Group, a Fifth Air Force P-38 outfit. On June 27 he flew his first mission in a P-38, joining three other 475th planes on a barge strafing mission to Salawati Island at the western tip on New Guinea. By July 4 he had flown five missions in the same area. It was soon noted that Lindbergh consistently returned from missions with several times as much fuel as the other pilots in his flight.

Quote

This caught Gen. Kenney�s attention and it was quickly decided that Lindbergh could continue flying as an observer providing he did not fire his guns, but if he did strafe a little no one would know�and if he could get the �Spirit of St. Louis� all the way to Paris maybe he really could help increase the combat radius of the P-38 and other fighters. Returning to the 475th, Lindbergh resumed flying June 20 and flew eight more missions through August 12, operating from Wakde, Owi and Biak. These missions, mostly to the Ceram and Halmahera areas, included both bomber escort and strafing flights. Between missions Lindbergh talked with many fighter units, explaining his fuel conservation methods.

On July 28, during a bomber escort mission in the Ceram area, Lindbergh shot down a Jap plane. On August 1 he, with three other 475th P-38s, proved the worth of his theories by flying a mission from Biak to Palau. Here his companions destroyed several Jap planes and Lindbergh learned he could not shake an enemy plane which got on his tail. Luckily one of the other planes chased the Jap off before any damage was done and all returned safely to Biak.

Quote

Lindbergh continued to fly missions through August 12, but word of the July 28 and August 1 missions proved to be the last straw for Gen. Kenney. In addition to his worry that his civilian guest might be shot down, he now had to wonder how long the story of Lindbergh�s fighter kill could be suppressed, as well as about the reaction of heavy bomber crews if they learned of the Palau fighter sweep. Up to now bomber crews, notably those of the 13th AAF, believed our fighters had insufficient range to escort them to Caroline Island targets. On August 13, Kenney grounded Lindbergh and �suggested� that he leave the SWPA.

 

 

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Just now, ABSR said:

The only off ramp I see is for him to declare victory.  He says he has crushed the Ukrainian Nazi threat and He pulls back into a controlling position of the Donbas and Luhansk territories which he says need Russian protection (basically annexes them).  He has to pull back into Crimea as well as he can't control beyond that territory.   He also strategically moves out of the other regions as they were needed to distract Ukraine from his only true goals but he never intended to conquer Ukraine.

So"Mission Accomplished" against the Nazi's and freeing the Russian people in Donbas and Luhansk!   Then he digs in and works on defending those borders he created.

Next is to let his sympathizers try and weasel Russia's way back into the world economy.

Then our job will be convincing Ukraine not to press and attack those forces on the other side of those lines.  Which will be a tough job.  Pretty sure a lot of Ukraine -- like 90% of the people -- will not accept anything less than total expulsion of Russian forces from Ukraine.

Invasion and total war make compromise a bitch.

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2 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Agreed.  And that's why this has very little chance of ending anywhere close to "well".  Short of Ukraine surrendering to Putin and Russia, there is no off ramp for Putin.  He's backed into a corner and it's not going to get better for him.  He's losing men and equipment he cannot replace.  Period. 

Once the Russians start getting pushed back into Russia, he'll ORDER THE LAUNCH OF launch a tactical nuke.  Then....watch out, shit will get uglier than it's ever been. 

FIFY...

I don't know that the military would actually follow through on that order, though.

I'm sure there are people in the chain of command that would, but are they in charge of the actually launching?

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33 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It was kept on the down low because senior commanders didn't want him shot down, so he and those around him somewhat covered it up.

One of the unit histories (307th Bomb Group) that mentions him is below (depending on who you ask, he flew from 30 to 50 combat missions and had at least one confirmed kill).  It was on his P-38 missions that he increased their range through some tweaks of the engines/throttles.

http://www.charleslindbergh.com/history/b24.asp

 

 

 

he couldn't keep that dick on the down low .....

Beginning in 1957, General Lindbergh engaged in lengthy sexual relationships with three women while remaining married to Anne Morrow. He fathered three children with hatmaker Brigitte Hesshaimer (1926–2001), who had lived in the small Bavarian town of Geretsried. He had two children with her sister Mariette, a painter, living in Grimisuat. Lindbergh also had a son and daughter (born in 1959 and 1961) with Valeska, an East Prussian aristocrat who was his private secretary in Europe and lived in Baden-Baden.[212][213][214][215] All seven children were born between 1958 and 1967.

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19 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Putin has an off ramp whenever he wants it.  His own ego might be an impediment to that happening - that’s certainly a valid point - but I feel like some of you are placing far too much importance on what objective truth means to an autocrat and a peopled ruled through fear and oppression.

Did Stalin or Mao feel trapped and like they had no alternative but to fall on the sword after any of their numerous failed plans and blunders that caused millions of their own people to die?   No.  They blamed the horror on someone else if they even acknowledged it at all, purged some sacrificial lambs, cracked down on dissent, and acted as though they did nothing wrong.

Putin is like [NAMED REDACTED FOR CLOAK ROOM].   He doesn’t believe in objective truth or accepting blame.  He believes in bullying people into accepting whatever he wants to be the truth in that moment.  There is no need for him to defend what happened in Ukraine like a Western leader would.  He’s never wrong, and you’re not allowed to think he’s wrong.  There are plenty of examples of the threat of the gulag keeping that system in place during far worse catastrophes than this Ukraine boondoggle.  

He can end this whenever he wants and just spew blatant bullshit to the Russians (like he’s been doing about everything else), and they will have to take it.  He’s only backed into a corner if these sanctions cripple Russia so badly for so long (probably years) that the Russian people have nothing left to lose and would rather risk the consequences of revolution than maintain the status quo.   That’s what makes regime change a threat, not losing a bid to take over Ukraine.

Only issue is 100K+ troops that actually know what happened.

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25 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

he couldn't keep that dick on the down low .....

Beginning in 1957, General Lindbergh engaged in lengthy sexual relationships with three women while remaining married to Anne Morrow. He fathered three children with hatmaker Brigitte Hesshaimer (1926–2001), who had lived in the small Bavarian town of Geretsried. He had two children with her sister Mariette, a painter, living in Grimisuat. Lindbergh also had a son and daughter (born in 1959 and 1961) with Valeska, an East Prussian aristocrat who was his private secretary in Europe and lived in Baden-Baden.[212][213][214][215] All seven children were born between 1958 and 1967.

Think of all those lonely fraulines after the war took out all the men.

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4 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Think of all those lonely fraulines after the war took out all the men.

You know, have kids with your mistress and then with your mistress's sister seems like you might be making your life a bit complicated, but maybe that's me.  Hell, I worked with a guy that had an affair with his wife's sister once.  I couldn't believe it.  Craziness, you guys will like this tid bit though, he was an Aggie.  

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1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

You know, have kids with your mistress and then with your mistress's sister seems like you might be making your life a bit complicated, but maybe that's me.  Hell, I worked with a guy that had an affair with his wife's sister once.  I couldn't believe it.  Craziness, you guys will like this tid bit though, he was an Aggie.  

Hey, the kids weren't just cousins they were half brother cousins.

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3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

You know, have kids with your mistress and then with your mistress's sister seems like you might be making your life a bit complicated, but maybe that's me.  Hell, I worked with a guy that had an affair with his wife's sister once.  I couldn't believe it.  Craziness, you guys will like this tid bit though, he was an Aggie.  

Do sheep really care though

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38 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

he couldn't keep that dick on the down low .....

Beginning in 1957, General Lindbergh engaged in lengthy sexual relationships with three women while remaining married to Anne Morrow. He fathered three children with hatmaker Brigitte Hesshaimer (1926–2001), who had lived in the small Bavarian town of Geretsried. He had two children with her sister Mariette, a painter, living in Grimisuat. Lindbergh also had a son and daughter (born in 1959 and 1961) with Valeska, an East Prussian aristocrat who was his private secretary in Europe and lived in Baden-Baden.[212][213][214][215] All seven children were born between 1958 and 1967.

Wow - Did nazi that coming

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5 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

You just know we've got Spec ops jawas combing the battlefields for scraps of intelligence.  

Eastern Ukraine must be the spookiest place on the planet right now.  Between the spies running around scrounging abandoned equipment, spies listening in on Russian radio traffic, spies delivering supplies to the Ukrainians, and spies liaising with the Ukrainian military (and that's just on our side), there are probably more spies per square foot in Eastern Ukraine right now than there have been in any spot in the history of the planet, save possibly Berlin between 1945 and 1990.

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The only off ramp I see is for him to declare victory.  He says he has crushed the Ukrainian Nazi threat and He pulls back into a controlling position of the Donbas and Luhansk territories which he says need Russian protection (basically annexes them).  He has to pull back into Crimea as well as he can't control beyond that territory.   He also strategically moves out of the other regions as they were needed to distract Ukraine from his only true goals but he never intended to conquer Ukraine.
So"Mission Accomplished" against the Nazi's and freeing the Russian people in Donbas and Luhansk!   Then he digs in and works on defending those borders he created.
Next is to let his sympathizers try and weasel Russia's way back into the world economy.

This is what I’ve felt he would do sometime this week, but the “digging in” phenomenon and Putin focusing on assigning blame, etc makes me think he hasn’t realized this is the only off ramp.
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1 minute ago, 686 said:


This is what I’ve felt he would do sometime this week, but the “digging in” phenomenon and Putin focusing on assigning blame, etc makes me think he hasn’t realized this is the only off ramp.

Even if pulling back is his off ramp, I fully expect him to shell the cities/destroy infrastructure before he pulls back further.  But who the fuck knows what his plan is at this point.  

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