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Russia reportedly snatching men on the streets of Russian cities. presumably sending them to 5-day training and then the frontlines. This isn’t finding men who ignored their mobilization orders but just random dudes who may be running an errand. That is something out of the 18th century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/16/russia-mobilization-men/

https://archive.ph/BSe9K

This will also help drive their economy further to a halt. Imagine you have a job but showing up tomorrow for work and running into a conscription raid. Men will opt to just stay home or hide out. Even unfounded rumors of snatch-and-grab conscription could send the country in a tailspin.

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So the hit on Belgorod, people are speculating based on audio and location (you see the anti-air launch, but hear the strikes on the ground after), that either once again jumpy air-defense guys went after their own missiles or that they launched anti-air missiles at Ukrainian AGM-88 HARMs and missed, but the AGM-88s didn’t.  

If it’s Ukrainians trying to hit their air defense, it’s not necessarily that Ukraine is planning an air raid on Belgorod, but that Ukraine is trying to take out as much anti-air as possible to force them to shuffle those systems around and/or just taking them off the table (since the Russians can’t replace those quickly).  Taking out anti-air in Russia means that it won’t be easily replace when they take it out in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine

Edited by atomheartbevo
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16 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Even unfounded rumors of snatch-and-grab conscription could send the country in a tailspin.

I don’t think it’s that unfounded.  There’s enough videos showing that officers are nabbing people at random who should not have fit the mobilization profile, and they have quotas.  Some of the Russian telegram channels have mentioned that mobilization officers were told that if they didn’t meet their quotas, they would be mobilized.  

Lots of this stuff

Edited by atomheartbevo
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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don’t think it’s that unfounded.  There’s enough videos showing that officers are nabbing people at random who should not have fit the mobilization profile, and they have quotas.  Some of the Russian telegram channels have mentioned that mobilization officers were told that if they didn’t meet their quotas, they would be mobilized.  

Lots of this stuff

 

I agree it’s not unfounded. I just meant that even rumors of it are bad much less if it’s actually occurring.

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6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree it’s not unfounded. I just meant that even rumors of it are bad much less if it’s actually occurring.

Russian state media basically confirmed it this weekend, talking about nabbing people at subway stations in Moscow, nabbing people in hostels, and one of the talking heads joked that they should have nabbed people at night clubs and that nobody would complain.

 

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17 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

I can't get enough of these videos, blow up every Russian tank !

 

Maybe they should offer billionaires a chance to shoot a javelin at a russian tank with russians inside of it for a price.   Kind of like big game hunting meets the most dangerous game.  

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Russia reportedly snatching men on the streets of Russian cities. presumably sending them to 5-day training and then the frontlines. This isn’t finding men who ignored their mobilization orders but just random dudes who may be running an errand. That is something out of the 18th century.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/16/russia-mobilization-men/
https://archive.ph/BSe9K

This will also help drive their economy further to a halt. Imagine you have a job but showing up tomorrow for work and running into a conscription raid. Men will opt to just stay home or hide out. Even unfounded rumors of snatch-and-grab conscription could send the country in a tailspin.

Man. That’d suck.
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What is the most shocking isn't the mobilization, but with it being a forced mobilization we are seeing the recruiting officers essentially having to scrounge to find people to try to bring in.

Look, we are seeing reports that they are looking for between 300k and 1M in total. This is in a country with a population of around 135M.

How are they having that hard of a time to find possible conscripts, especially if they are not really following the lists but grabbing who they can off the street? This led me to do some demographic digging and the 20-55 age group is only about 30M. 

russia-population-pyramid-2020.jpg

Of this slice, how many are already in the military (dead or alive), how many are in an essential job or a protected class, and how many have fled the country?

The fact that the conscription office is having difficulties in major metro areas to drag in what would be 1 to 3% of a target population tells me either all of those eligible have fled the metro areas, the conscription quotas are all over the place or the conscript number is WAY larger than the reported number.

 

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20 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Of this slice, how many are already in the military (dead or alive), how many are in an essential job or a protected class, and how many have fled the country?

The fact that the conscription office is having difficulties in major metro areas to drag in what would be 1 to 3% of a target population tells me either all of those eligible have fled the metro areas, the conscription quotas are all over the place or the conscript number is WAY larger than the reported number.

Supposedly 700,000+ have left Russia since February.   Most of those were probably military-aged men - hell, a huge chunk of the most popular male YouTubers in Russia bailed  in the past month, so it’s definitely a thing,  and I’ve heard a huge chunk of that 700,000+ that left since February have left in the last two months,

Peter Zeihan has beaten the drum a lot about Russian demographics while also pointing out that we don’t know how many people are actually in Russia.

Something is definitely off with their population if they are chasing random people down.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Stoke those ethnic tensions, it's a bold strategy within Russia.

 

 

Re; that conscript who killed all those soldiers.  It can't be emphasized enough how bad the hazing is in the Russian military.  Everyone, even officers, beats the Hell out of their underlings.  Guys get their teeth knocked out and jaws broke.  Maybe this guy got tired of it.

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3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Re; that conscript who killed all those soldiers.  It can't be emphasized enough how bad the hazing is in the Russian military.  Everyone, even officers, beats the Hell out of their underlings.  Guys get their teeth knocked out and jaws broke.  Maybe this guy got tired of it.

My guess is that they started hazing the 3 muslims in the group and kept telling them fucked up shit like they were going to kill them in their sleep or they are going to make sure they never come from the front or some other level of bullshit during the trip to Belgorod and then through the early part of their short training. Once they accepted they were dead men anyways, they decided to take out as many as they could during live fire target practice.

 

What surprises me isn't that this happened, but the number of dead from this. Were they a machine gun crew and spun the tripod onto the training platoon? Was this during grenade demonstrations? Killing 22 is more difficult than it would sound on a training range. This is one of those stories that as more things leak out the more questions I have about this.

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