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Surly Nostradamus Prediction Thread


Neonmoon

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10 - I am still driving my Geo Tracker because it's the closest thing to a 1990s VW Thing.

20 - I am still driving my Geo Tracker because it's the closest thing to a 1990s VW Thing.

30 - I am still driving my Geo Tracker because it's the closest thing to a 1990s VW Thing. A jealous incel husband sends a Facebook Murder Drone to take me out for banging his childless wife to help replenish the population, but my own wife knocks the thing out of the air with her eye-laser because it's my job to get all y'all's childless wives pregnant, and it's funny to watch my old ass thrashing around on top of a 400-pound 20-year-old.

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14 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Predict something that will happen in the future 10 years from now, 20 years from now, and 30 years from now 

10 - There is a cure/vaccine for AIDS

20 - Universal Healthcare become law in the US

30 - A human walks on Mars 

 

I predict I will see none of those things occurring.

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10 - flying cars are 2 years from being transportation for everyone

20 - flying cars are 2 years from being transportation for everyone

30 - flying cars are 2 years from being transportation for everyone

 

I post this because in a conversation with my college freshman son, he stated that he expected there to be commercially available flying cars in the near future.
(for shits & giggles - google flying car magazine covers.....goes back to the 1940's, maybe earlier - Popular Mechanics, Popular Science, Discover, Modern Mechanix,  How it Works, etc)

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10 - my boy will be accepted to UTD, but not UTA. I tell him to transfer after 2 years. He disobeys me and I drink even more.

20 - it gets hot as f@ck. Battery powered self driving cars are everywhere. US adopts pollution tax; everything that pollutes costs a lot more. Paper cup of water is $10, plastic bottle of water is $10,000.  Wind powered kWh is cheap; gasoline gallon of energy costs $50,000 cause you are ruining the world A-hole. 

30 - 2049, aliens land on earth; we shoot them and they blow us all up. RIP

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10 - a large very visible third world starts to develop on the outskirts of major US metropolitan areas
20 - Driverless cars are the norm
30 - Universal Basic Income in the US

There is already a noticeable third world country on the outskirts of DFW: Oklahoma.

I actually agree with you though. For the bottom half of this country our indicators in health, education, social mobility, skills, and investment look a lot more like developing countries than they do other developed nations. And the economy is strong right now. The gap is only widening and starting to spread up the income ladder. At the current pace, only the top 20 percent or so are insulated. No CR, those are facts without value judgement.

As for mine:



10: Basketball has surpassed football as the nation's most popular sport. Soccer also overtakes baseball to move into the top three. Might be a bit aggressive on the timeline.

20: Due to a blend of health and environmental concerns, as well as price increases, American beef consumption has declined by somewhere between a third to half.

30: Demographic trends have reversed and there is now a strong migration flow from the southwest to the great lakes due to fresh water supply,

Bonus 50: Printers still haven't advanced since like 1995.



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26 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


30: Demographic trends have reversed and there is now a strong migration flow from the southwest to the great lakes due to fresh water supply,
 

Maybe it'll be warmed up by then, but if it's still super cold that will never happen. That area of the country is done for.

In 30 years, I think freshwater will actually not be so scarce. Some genius will figure out an easy cheap way to de-salinate oceanwater. Solves the drinking water issue and helps to stem rising ocean levels. Huge win/win. 

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49 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Maybe it'll be warmed up by then, but if it's still super cold that will never happen. That area of the country is done for.

In 30 years, I think freshwater will actually not be so scarce. Some genius will figure out an easy cheap way to de-salinate oceanwater. Solves the drinking water issue and helps to stem rising ocean levels. Huge win/win. 

I don't think the cold is why people moved south. I think it was a bunch of rust belt communities refusing to accept the changing economy. They kinda just stood by during the decline. Minneapolis is cold as fuck but shows up on just about every top 10 list of cities and is growing again.

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1 hour ago, 'stache said:

I don't think the cold is why people moved south. I think it was a bunch of rust belt communities refusing to accept the changing economy. They kinda just stood by during the decline. Minneapolis is cold as fuck but shows up on just about every top 10 list of cities and is growing again.

Yep.   Pittsburgh is actually stemming the tide as well

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10 years - Texas will have a couple more national championships in football.

20 years - aggy celebrates the 100th anniversary of their last championship.

30 years - aggy makes their final payment on Jimbo's contract.

 

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2 hours ago, Helobious said:

Maybe it'll be warmed up by then, but if it's still super cold that will never happen. That area of the country is done for.

In 30 years, I think freshwater will actually not be so scarce. Some genius will figure out an easy cheap way to de-salinate oceanwater. Solves the drinking water issue and helps to stem rising ocean levels. Huge win/win. 

There is no drinking water problem without brutally inefficient use of water by agriculture and industry. A minuscule amount of human water use is for daily essentials - drinking, bathing, washing, cooking, etc. Like < 10 percent. Industry, landscape irrigation, and agriculture, especially the latter, are the prime water users. What will happen in the southwest as the Colorado dries up is that water will become scarce. Water will become a lot more expensive in those places. When a heat index of 120 plus degrees becomes normal for Phoenix for three months a year, water is prohibitively expensive (which it would be even in your truck/pipe in desalinated water scenario), and people really start to get the true "I live in the middle of the fucking desert" experience, they will leave.

I'm not going to write a whole paragraph on your desalination comment right now, suffice it to say the "easy cheap" portion is iffy, even when discounting the problematic side-effects of desalination. How long have we been waiting for easy, cheap flying cars and nuclear fusion? The latter portion about sea levels simply has no basis in reality, which is pretty obvious when you think about the scale of the world's oceans.

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

There is no drinking water problem without brutally inefficient use of water by agriculture and industry. A minuscule amount of human water use is for daily essentials - drinking, bathing, washing, cooking, etc. Like < 10 percent. Industry, landscape irrigation, and agriculture, especially the latter, are the prime water users. What will happen in the southwest as the Colorado dries up is that water will become scarce. Water will become a lot more expensive in those places. When a heat index of 120 plus degrees becomes normal for Phoenix for three months a year, water is prohibitively expensive (which it would be even in your truck/pipe in desalinated water scenario), and people really start to get the true "I live in the middle of the fucking desert" experience, they will leave.

I'm not going to write a whole paragraph on your desalination comment right now, suffice it to say the "easy cheap" portion is iffy, even when discounting the problematic side-effects of desalination. How long have we been waiting for easy, cheap flying cars and nuclear fusion? The latter portion about sea levels simply has no basis in reality, which is pretty obvious when you think about the scale of the world's oceans.

Maybe we can pipeline de-Salinated water back inland and refill the Colorado and its chain of lakes.  Then we’ll refill the aquifers, and then we’ll start making glaciers 

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