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COVID-19 vaccine discussion


Texas Jeff

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4 hours ago, midtown said:

Business acumen.  Keep your best customers alive

Well, since COVID hit the heaviest people the hardest, Krispie Kream needs to work on creating a new generation of morbidly obese.  They're playing chess while we're just playing checkers. 

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Holy shit, is AZN really this incompetent? This is crazy.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/niaid-statement-astrazeneca-vaccine

 

 

NIAID Statement on AstraZeneca Vaccine

Late Monday, the Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) notified NIAID, BARDA, and AstraZeneca that it was concerned by information released by AstraZeneca on initial data from its COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial. The DSMB expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data. We urge the company to work with the DSMB to review the efficacy data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as quickly as possible.

Authorization and guidelines for use of the vaccine in the United States will be determined by the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after thorough review of the data by independent advisory committees.

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28 minutes ago, Viper said:

never understood why the FDA bothers testing drugs and treatments that Europe has already tested and approved. 

It's not unheard of for any regulator to accept data from trials conducted in another region.  It all depends on if the treatment is available in another drug, the clinical benefit to the local region's citizens (either independently or in comparison with existing treatments), the way the trials were conducted, e.g. would a regulator agree with the trial design or other key elements of the trial conduct, and of course in some measure, politics (not the partisan kind).

Much of the why boils down to "we preferred it be done this way, not this way, so we reject your argument, go run your trials in our region and you'll need our sign-off on your protocol before you start".

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12 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

so the gov can spend money on brother-in-law deals with US companies to the do the same work.  promises made...promises kept... to campaign donors.

Don't forget the desire to protect their own budgets.  If they just approved everything that someone else did, why do they need XXXX billion for an annual budget.

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true.  it's their job and their duty to do their own research and own approval.  Can you imagine the backlash if they rubber stamped it based on EU approval and then shit hit the fan?  i don't have a problem with it.  Taking other entities word for stuff is how the Boeing Max issue happened.  They (should be) staffed and funded to that work, so let them do the work.

The stuff with the initial c19 test kits was botched because we did not want to use the WHO test and make/design our own.  That felt more like pork to me (and we fucked it up) but regulatory approval is a little different animal.  

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2 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

true.  it's their job and their duty to do their own research and own approval.  Can you imagine the backlash if they rubber stamped it based on EU approval and then shit hit the fan?  i don't have a problem with it.  Taking other entities word for stuff is how the Boeing Max issue happened.  They (should be) staffed and funded to that work, so let them do the work.

The stuff with the initial c19 test kits was botched because we did not want to use the WHO test and make/design our own.  That felt more like pork to me (and we fucked it up) but regulatory approval is a little different animal.  

And we take that little animal and test our drugs out on it to gain regulatory approval.  Circle of Life, Simba.  Speaking of that, come here Simba...I want you to have a sip out of this beaker.  

I agree with y'all for the most part---it's part additional bureaucracy, part grift, etc.  But I think we also have to test out food and drugs from Europe ourselves because we also have way more than our fair share of stupid people in the United States.  People who can't shut up about their European heritage but yet don't want to behave, at all, like Europeans.  Things like food moderation, walking, and taking care of one another---commonplace themes in Europe...not so much in the United States.  So they need to see what these drugs are gonna due to our ignorant, fat asses I suppose.  

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Saw a video of Richard Branson getting injected, via social media. Comments were exactly as expected:  

1) just because he’s a celebrity doesn’t mean he’s right

2) can’t prove it’s safe. Not fda approved (emergency use distinction) Should take 10 years to approve (here they don’t factor in wait times that were bypassed when covid vaccines were put in the front of the line, plus less data to review overall at submission for EUA)

3) (my favorite) he didn’t take the cap off or press the plunger!  It’s all fake to get us to take this thing that isn’t a vaccine but really a gene therapy that changes your dna to make us sterile.  (Video clearly shows that the needle cap was never on from the start of the clip, and that the plunger does in fact get depressed.)

4) the occasional rational “i got it/want to get it” and “do what’s best for you” posts scattered about. 
 

people are so predictable, and also feel that they must post their opinions and/or “facts” on all of these things. 


and while I’m bitching, I’ll also give a shout out to people that say they’re better off letting their immune system work than taking a vaccine.  These people obviously don’t understand how vaccines work and don’t care to learn.  They think that the active in the injection is what fights the foreign body, like it’s an injection of antibodies.  
 

starting to wish covid was much more deadly so it would take out the idiots that refuse to wear any prophylactic or get vaccinated. 

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For Texas---with this announcement (and hopefully the logistical and infrastructure to deliver the increase in shots)...It'll take 2 months to get everybody who has a lick of sense fully vaccinated plus the 14 days of no symptoms to truly be in the clear.  People will continue to dick around though for several months thinking that herd immunity is something for other people/states to care of for them.  But we should pretty damn solid by 1 July and fully herd/fully open by 1 September.  

Edited by Lobo
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Just now, Lobo said:

It'll take 2 months to get everybody who has a lick of sense fully vaccinated plus the 14 days of no symptoms to truly be in the clear.  People will continue to dick around though for several months thinking that herd immunity is something for other people/states to care of for them.  But we should pretty damn solid by 1 July and fully herd/fully open by 1 September.  

Sooner than that.

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15 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Sooner than that.

I hope you are right but there will be a ramp up of strain talk(China strain, South African strain, UK strain, etc...) as well as the "we don't know if you are still carrying the virus and can spread to others".  

again, I hope you are right.  good job on the vaccines smart guys!

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Okay, 60 days to deploy all those vaccines (both shots), but I'm still tacking on an extra 30 because that last wave/rush in May needs 14 days to be symptom-fee before I feel comfortable with them openly out 'n about.  And I'm cushioning two more weeks because Texas is  just on a hot streak of fucking shit up this year.  I'd keep my guard up until end of June, not end of May.  But I think it's full-on fuck around party time come August.  

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3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Holy shit, is AZN really this incompetent? This is crazy.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/niaid-statement-astrazeneca-vaccine

 

 

NIAID Statement on AstraZeneca Vaccine

Late Monday, the Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) notified NIAID, BARDA, and AstraZeneca that it was concerned by information released by AstraZeneca on initial data from its COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial. The DSMB expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data. We urge the company to work with the DSMB to review the efficacy data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as quickly as possible.

Authorization and guidelines for use of the vaccine in the United States will be determined by the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after thorough review of the data by independent advisory committees.

I get that AZ can't help tripping over their own dicks on this process, but I think this open letter is one of the worst moves they could have made.  The difference is from 79% down to 69-74%.  For that little bit of difference, we've now made a widely-available, extremely effective vaccine the poster child for anti-vaxxers and created a solid argument for the vaccine hesitant.  Even better that it's the vaccine being distributed most widely in the most skeptical parts of the world.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/astrazeneca-oxford-vaccine-concerns/2021/03/23/2f931d34-8bc3-11eb-a33e-da28941cb9ac_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3120216%2F605a10c19d2fda4c8818c185%2F5d02a1a9ae7e8a01784138c9%2F11%2F70%2F605a10c19d2fda4c8818c185

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48 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I hope you are right but there will be a ramp up of strain talk(China strain, South African strain, UK strain, etc...) as well as the "we don't know if you are still carrying the virus and can spread to others".  

again, I hope you are right.  good job on the vaccines smart guys!

I guess it depends on how you're viewing "success" and "completion."

If you're talking about waiting until every single person is satisfied that there is zero risk to themselves and others, then no, it's not happening any time in the next 12 months.

But if you're talking about the idea that the states that are already mostly open, will have delivered enough vaccine to those who are willing to get it, to warrant removing all restrictions and going balls-out with business as usual, well then, in a place like Texas, that's Memorial Day. 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I hope you are right but there will be a ramp up of strain talk(China strain, South African strain, UK strain, etc...) as well as the "we don't know if you are still carrying the virus and can spread to others".  

again, I hope you are right.  good job on the vaccines smart guys!

'others' at that point are adults who chose to not get a shot.  So fuck them. 

The <16 (18?) crowd, i think trials are going on, but have no idea on the timeline.  I know a few tweens/teens (son's friends) that are still really scared about the virus despite their parents explaining how rare kids that age are severely affected.  fingers crossed that any variants don't start affecting the kiddos.

here is an excerpt from an interview with Moderna CEO on the vax vs the variants.  This is from Jan 25th, so not the most up to date, but perusing other articles, no one is saying that the current vaxs are helpless vs the variants and that all of them should guard against severe illness.

Quote

STEPHANE BANCEL: Good morning Meg and thank you for having us back. So indeed, we announced this morning that we posted last night a manuscript between the NIH team and Moderna, looking at those new variants, especially B117 first found in the UK and B1351 first found in South Africa. The great news with both virus, we see very high level of antibody. With B117 strain from the UK, we basically see the same level of antibody, as we saw in the, in the strain that has been circulating in the US and as shown in the Phase 3 trial leading to the FDA authorization, you know, very high efficacy so we’ve been very good about that strain and as you know, the CDC has said that that strain will become the dominant strain in the US by mouth so that’s a very good thing. For the South African strain, we still see a very high level of antibody, but it is indeed lower than the traditional strain and B117 and so, we believe our vaccine will be protective in the short term. What is unknowable right now is what will happen in six months in twelve months, especially to the elderly because as you know they have a weakened immune system and the immunity might go down over time. And because of that unknown and Moderna wants to always stay at the forefront of a fight against COVID-19, we decided to take into our clinic out of an abundance of caution a new vaccine called MRNA 1273.351 for the South Africa strain that we’ll be testing in the clinic very quickly. Our goal and we’ve been asked to have good alignment with the FDA soon but our goal will be to run a very quick boost, a single dose, into potentially the Phase 1 study that as you know was something our last mark in the US, so it’ll be kind of at the one year anniversary. We run that boost and get that data to look at the neutralizing antibody and we are gonna to do that both for mRNA1273, the current authorized product, but also for mRNA 1273.351 for the new strain and then we’re going to expand that to the Phase 3 to boost the Phase 3 participant again single dose to get that data like this eve in the fall there is a need because of waning immunity into the elderly to put on the market that spring, we will be ready. We cannot be behind, we cannot fall behind this virus. We just wanted to be cautious, not for now, but for the future.

So vs the UK variant, there is basically no change to level of protection.  Vs the SA variant, the efficacy is lower and there may be some danger to older recipients (whose immune systems are weaker) ~ a year down the road.  There may need to be a booster for that variant or it may go into a flu-shot like cycle if this stuff keeps popping up.

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1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

Yep, memorial day (which was your original call I think)

Yeah, still liking that prediction. I'm not saying we're going to have full NBA stadiums by then, because they're going to be over-cautious, but society will basically be normal then, maybe with masks still hanging around. Full planes, full hotels, full bars and restaurants, etc.

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On 3/22/2021 at 10:55 AM, midtown said:

And I think a lot of people are down with this.  However.  At some point the polarity will flip and a larger percentage of the public will be vaccinated including probably the bulk of those over 50 or "1B's".   At that point we've, in theory, protected those most likely to be hospitalized and/or die and at that point and the default should be normal life and optional masks.  If business want to continue to mandate them that's fine.  I assume airlines will stick with it for at least through the year by way of federal mandate.   If you are still scared about being out with maskless people you should stay home.

RE the bolded, once everyone who wants the vaccine can get it, I will agree with this.  But not until then.

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2 hours ago, Lobo said:

Okay, 60 days to deploy all those vaccines (both shots), but I'm still tacking on an extra 30 because that last wave/rush in May needs 14 days to be symptom-fee before I feel comfortable with them openly out 'n about.  And I'm cushioning two more weeks because Texas is  just on a hot streak of fucking shit up this year.  I'd keep my guard up until end of June, not end of May.  But I think it's full-on fuck around party time come August.  

Have you been outside recently? It's been a full-on fuck around party for months already. Maybe Austin is different, if that's where you are located. 

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SIAP, but what's the latest on how long the efficacy of the vaccines last?  I'm scheduled to be in New Orleans for 4th of July weekend, and by the time I get there it will have been about 4 months since my second shot.  I plan on sticking with the mask, but from pictures in the New Orleans food thread, it looks like a lot of restaurants have been waving good-bye to social distancing and decreased capacity. 

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SIAP, but what's the latest on how long the efficacy of the vaccines last?  I'm scheduled to be in New Orleans for 4th of July weekend, and by the time I get there it will have been about 4 months since my second shot.  I plan on sticking with the mask, but from pictures in the New Orleans food thread, it looks like a lot of restaurants have been waving good-bye to social distancing and decreased capacity. 

Covid is the least of your worries of things you might catch in New Orleans.
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3 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

Y'all we are gonna have a full fair and Cotton Bowl this October and FAPFAPFAPFAPFAP

ou sucks

13 minutes ago, South Austin said:

SIAP, but what's the latest on how long the efficacy of the vaccines last?  I'm scheduled to be in New Orleans for 4th of July weekend, and by the time I get there it will have been about 4 months since my second shot.  I plan on sticking with the mask, but from pictures in the New Orleans food thread, it looks like a lot of restaurants have been waving good-bye to social distancing and decreased capacity. 

The clinical test subjects are hitting 6 month blood draws right now I believe for Pfizer and moderna, and up to now there are still antibodies and/or T cells present. So no definitive ending yet. 

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1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

I get that AZ can't help tripping over their own dicks on this process, but I think this open letter is one of the worst moves they could have made.  The difference is from 79% down to 69-74%.  For that little bit of difference, we've now made a widely-available, extremely effective vaccine the poster child for anti-vaxxers and created a solid argument for the vaccine hesitant.  Even better that it's the vaccine being distributed most widely in the most skeptical parts of the world.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/astrazeneca-oxford-vaccine-concerns/2021/03/23/2f931d34-8bc3-11eb-a33e-da28941cb9ac_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3120216%2F605a10c19d2fda4c8818c185%2F5d02a1a9ae7e8a01784138c9%2F11%2F70%2F605a10c19d2fda4c8818c185

What a mess. Looks like the review board told them to use data past the interim analysis lock, and AZN went ahead and just put the interim data in their press release. 

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1 hour ago, South Austin said:

SIAP, but what's the latest on how long the efficacy of the vaccines last?  I'm scheduled to be in New Orleans for 4th of July weekend, and by the time I get there it will have been about 4 months since my second shot.  I plan on sticking with the mask, but from pictures in the New Orleans food thread, it looks like a lot of restaurants have been waving good-bye to social distancing and decreased capacity. 

https://www.verywellhealth.com/length-of-covid-19-vaccine-immunity-5094857

Quote

The hope, Jere McBride, PhD, director of the experimental pathology graduate program at the University of Texas Medical Branch, tells Verywell, is that the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines will confer immunity for two to three years. In reality, however, the duration “could be longer or shorter” and will only be determined by conducting studies of people who have received the vaccine.

like others have said, it's unknown at this point.  I would think that 4 months after your 2nd shot should be right in the wheelhouse of peak protection assuming you are not an old.

go ahead and rock out with your cock out in NO, imo*

* past performance of taking gyro's advice and not dying is not indicative of future success. 

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SIAP, but what's the latest on how long the efficacy of the vaccines last?  I'm scheduled to be in New Orleans for 4th of July weekend, and by the time I get there it will have been about 4 months since my second shot.  I plan on sticking with the mask, but from pictures in the New Orleans food thread, it looks like a lot of restaurants have been waving good-bye to social distancing and decreased capacity. 

Pretty good data that shows prior infection/vaccination is good for at least 6-9 months (not so for vaccines on the long end of that given the timing, but if a prior infection does that, and the vaccines generate as much it more of an antibody response, reasonable to assume). You should be fine four months out.
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We're all getting a booster shot for Covid-19 about once a year.  Just like the flu shot.  Steel yourselves, it's just gonna be a thing you do at HEB pharmacy while shopping.  We're gonna somehow make it through this as adults. 

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17 minutes ago, Lobo said:

We're all getting a booster shot for Covid-19 about once a year.  Just like the flu shot.  Steel yourselves, it's just gonna be a thing you do at HEB pharmacy while shopping.  We're gonna somehow make it through this as adults. 

Fine with me.  It's not a big deal.

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42 minutes ago, Lobo said:

We're all getting a booster shot for Covid-19 about once a year.  Just like the flu shot.  Steel yourselves, it's just gonna be a thing you do at HEB pharmacy while shopping.  We're gonna somehow make it through this as adults. 

even when 6G comes out?  should be able to just stream the T-cells from the towers at that point.

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