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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm not one for ooh-ing or aw-ing about most things but the ability and balls to fly in close formation is bad ass.  And I think of these flyovers as much more impressive than they tricks at air shows. The air show performances are awesome but I assume very well choreographed with timing.  These fly-overs are unique flight paths over extended  periods of time.

 

My favorite part of that video is the pilot's looking to the right and left like they are checking their side mirrors before attempting a lane change going 25 MPH. It's fucking insane. 

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9 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

do you have any sort of link to this BOLD fact/assumption that this is actually happening and where?  And are they forgiving the mortgage payments or simply delaying collection?  Is there interest incurred?  A balloon payment due?

I think it is all delay for now, but will be pushed to be forgive at some point because they won't be able to pay the balloon, with the burden on the landlord to get something from the feds.  

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7 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I know some have been able to get a mortgage forbearance.  That was part of the CARES act for all federally backed loans under any program.  It should be clear, that should be extended TO ALL mortgages not just federally backed ones.

right. seattle should declare that mortgages are not due for another 6 months either and no harm will come to the credit rating of those folks.  although if you have a mortgage you are probably a rich as shit 1%-er.

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3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I think it is all delay for now, but will be pushed to be forgive at some point because they won't be able to pay the balloon, with the burden on the landlord to get something from the feds.  

I don't know how it's working for all mortgages, but the common way i'm seeing COVID relief in other asset classes is simply deferring payments for X months with missed payments  tacked on to the end of the (extended) term.  That seems to be how it should work.  

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 my anecdotal evidence in Texas....none of the landlords I know have been given forbearance or forgiveness on any properties.  Most are simply working it out with tenants and eating the loss.  These are individual owners with multiple properties.  It is their family's livelihood.  Their banks have offered nothing.

Edited by ChickenSandwich
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Artificial interruptions in the cash flow chains cause massive ripples.  And got a hold of legal friend about my earlier question about the legality of this:  it was Santa Clara CA.  City council tried to pass something similar  and DA informed them it was unconstitutional and SC case law already has precedent so they shut it down.

So......

 

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Yeah, I don't want to pick unnecessarily, but I think too often we blame the education system for abject ignorance, when it's just flat something else.
We could have a system that is effectively teaching algebra in 5th grade and calculus in 8th, with advanced civics and constitutional law in 6th grade and you'd still have a passel of morons if things outside the classroom are not addressed.
Also, I can't prove it exactly, but I think a lot of countries that supposedly have better educational systems manage to weed out the abject morons so they aren't tested for comparison purposes (via "vocational" things and the like, not that vocational education is without merit or solely for the stupid).

I don't want to get CR or threadjack, but it's not that other countries weed out dumb kids. It's a multifaceted issue here that doesn't really have a single explanation. If I had to try to do so, it's that a lot of our students are starting from worse positions, which is really hard to overcome. There's a lot of reasons, many self inflicted, that don't belong here.
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Spoiler

 ARTICLE

TEXT SIZEAaAa

It’s been labelled risky, reckless, an outlier. Sweden has been at the centre of much debate over the past few weeks. Why has it not ruthlessly pursued lockdown like everyone else? Is it doing the right thing?

Well, the Swedes themselves seem to think so, with overwhelming support for their government’s decisions and the advice of scientists.

This is not a country divided. And we should also be clear that this is not a country that has done nothing. It has banned large gatherings, closed high schools and universities and told elderly people to self-isolate.

But restaurants, bars, primary schools and most businesses are still open. The country has forged its odd path. And in absolute terms, unfortunately, more people so far have died compared to its Nordic neighbours.

At the time of writing, Sweden has 14,777 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1,580 people have died. If we compare that to Norway, which has half the population, it has seen 7,156 cases – or approximately half of that of Sweden – and the much-lower figure of 181 deaths. Finland, which has a population similar to Norway's, has seen 4,014 COVID-19 cases and 98 fatalities.

Comparably, the virus has been nearly ten times more deadly in Sweden, even though it has only twice the population. Yet, hospitals have not been overwhelmed; figures available from last week show capacity is running at 80 per cent and worst-case estimates around infection and death rates have simply not transpired.

That is not to say there isn’t anger out there, particularly at a perceived lack of shielding of older people. More than a third of fatalities have been people living in care homes.

The impact of the coronavirus cannot simply be measured by its effect on health. Unsurprisingly, Sweden has been less damaged economically. Personal spending in Denmark is down 66 per cent and in Finland it stands at 70 per cent, compared to only 30 per cent in Sweden. Unemployment claims in Norway are rising four times as fast as those in Sweden. The latter’s overall economy is not expected to slump to nearly the same degree as much of Europe.

And then there is the issue of so-called herd immunity. Studies at the weekend suggested between 25-40 per cent of Stockholm may have actually already had the virus. It could be up to 60 per cent by late May. In France, it is currently believed to stand at around six per cent.

Does this mean Sweden will be better able to stem, stop or see less of an impact from the second or third waves when they inevitably come? We honestly do not know. It isn’t an exact science at the moment, we can't predict the future. And it will be a long time before we can fully assess whether or not Sweden has got it right.

Darren McCaffrey is Euronews' political editor.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/21/analysis-is-sweden-right-in-its-handling-of-covid-19

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11 minutes ago, GringoSalado said:
  Reveal hidden contents

 ARTICLE

TEXT SIZEAaAa

It’s been labelled risky, reckless, an outlier. Sweden has been at the centre of much debate over the past few weeks. Why has it not ruthlessly pursued lockdown like everyone else? Is it doing the right thing?

Well, the Swedes themselves seem to think so, with overwhelming support for their government’s decisions and the advice of scientists.

This is not a country divided. And we should also be clear that this is not a country that has done nothing. It has banned large gatherings, closed high schools and universities and told elderly people to self-isolate.

But restaurants, bars, primary schools and most businesses are still open. The country has forged its odd path. And in absolute terms, unfortunately, more people so far have died compared to its Nordic neighbours.

At the time of writing, Sweden has 14,777 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1,580 people have died. If we compare that to Norway, which has half the population, it has seen 7,156 cases – or approximately half of that of Sweden – and the much-lower figure of 181 deaths. Finland, which has a population similar to Norway's, has seen 4,014 COVID-19 cases and 98 fatalities.

Comparably, the virus has been nearly ten times more deadly in Sweden, even though it has only twice the population. Yet, hospitals have not been overwhelmed; figures available from last week show capacity is running at 80 per cent and worst-case estimates around infection and death rates have simply not transpired.

That is not to say there isn’t anger out there, particularly at a perceived lack of shielding of older people. More than a third of fatalities have been people living in care homes.

The impact of the coronavirus cannot simply be measured by its effect on health. Unsurprisingly, Sweden has been less damaged economically. Personal spending in Denmark is down 66 per cent and in Finland it stands at 70 per cent, compared to only 30 per cent in Sweden. Unemployment claims in Norway are rising four times as fast as those in Sweden. The latter’s overall economy is not expected to slump to nearly the same degree as much of Europe.

And then there is the issue of so-called herd immunity. Studies at the weekend suggested between 25-40 per cent of Stockholm may have actually already had the virus. It could be up to 60 per cent by late May. In France, it is currently believed to stand at around six per cent.

Does this mean Sweden will be better able to stem, stop or see less of an impact from the second or third waves when they inevitably come? We honestly do not know. It isn’t an exact science at the moment, we can't predict the future. And it will be a long time before we can fully assess whether or not Sweden has got it right.

Darren McCaffrey is Euronews' political editor.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/21/analysis-is-sweden-right-in-its-handling-of-covid-19

IMO, there isn't a one size fits all way to handle covid. I think that what was done in Sweden could be valid for a specific lower density population; but in large cities, especially those with large rider base of public transportation, then I think you need more than social distancing and wearing masks - large cities can quickly overload their hospital systems. What we really need to learn is if there is any immunity from prior infection, because if so that makes easing restrictions less risky, if not they the 2nd wave could easily exceed what we have already seen.

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Regarding education one thing that some countries do that the USA doesn’t want to do is to segregate the students, as in, the smart students go to this school, the so-so students go to this other school, and the special ed students go to this special ed school. In Austin ISD the special ed kid that requires an aid and drools on him/herself and can hardly participate in any classroom activity is in the same classroom as everyone else. That is insane.

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1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

 It effectively says we cannot have things like direct democracy or personal choice for a large segment of the population because they can only understand being led, following directions, and doing what they're told.  They are incapable of making unique choices or unscripted decisions, and the prospect of doing so overwhelms them and makes them so uncomfortable that they become angry and violent.  When given unencumbered freedom of choice they revolt and replace that system with a government led by strongmen who will tell them what to do and how to think.  

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Edited by atomheartbevo
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1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

If you received a reprieve on your mortgage payments, you should be passing that onto tenants.  That is LARGELY not happening.  Unfortunately, states are going to have to step in.  What WOULD make sense is that as long as there are mandates (and let's be clear, there is going to be some sort of shit going on for the rest of 2020 at a minimum), then there needs to be meaningful rules on mortgage relief and rent relief of all businesses and individuals. 

 

I haven't received a reprieve or relief from any source yet I still granted deferred rent for May and June to tenants. I am not receiving any income while burning through cash to escrow for taxes and insurance and to cover maintenance. The CARES Act and the SBA loans handed out have had the unintended consequence of discouraging the payment of rent because 75% of those loans has to go towards payroll. Landlords are getting fucked on multiple fronts: a rushed relief bill that hurts us rather than helps, government shutdowns and tenants suffering from a cash crunch. Landlords can't keep hemorrhaging cash; otherwise, we are going to have financial meltdown. Even after the lockdowns end, the risk is going to be very high for a lot of tenant defaults.

Edited by Iconoclast Texan
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8 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Regarding education one thing that some countries do that the USA doesn’t want to do is to segregate the students

There is a whole lot more going on with what you said, and I disagree with some of it, but no matter what, at the end of the day, America is infested with Karens, and you’d better not even think of suggesting their kids would be better off anywhere but on the path to some mythical Ivy League.    You do not want a covid of Karens showing up at the school board meeting over something like that.   

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33 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

 my anecdotal evidence in Texas....none of the landlords I know have been given forbearance or forgiveness on any properties.  Most are simply working it out with tenants and eating the loss.  These are individual owners with multiple properties.  It is their family's livelihood.  Their banks have offered nothing.

Chase has 2 of my loans and they had a relatively easy application for relief. I don’t have to make payments, won’t incite interest, and won’t hurt my credit score. The resolution won’t be determined until the 3 months is over, but they list options as due in full when this is over, prorate it over some period, or just extend the loan term. I’ll need the loan term extension as there is no way the money I’m losing now is going to magically appear in 3 months. These are Airbnbs and that seems fair to me. But it sounds like I’m going to have to haggle or argue to get that extension  

Of my long term tenants, one is section 8 and we’d all be royally fucked if the county was unable to make payments, and the other is a pair of dudes that have decent offshore jobs (and still do fortunately). So I’m still paying that loan. But for LL with tenants that aren’t/can’t pay, they should also absolutely be able to extend their loans. Someone is going to have to hold the bag at the end of this. It shouldn’t solely be LL. Loan extensions at least splits the burden between the lenders and LL, and the tenants get free rent. 

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6 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

You sound like a very caring person.  That's why my autistic daughter went to private school so she didn't infect any of the normal kids

I know he could have articulated it more PC, but are you saying that advanced highly intelligent kids should be taught and set in the same classrooms as the mentally challenged and even in the same classrooms as the kids that simply dont care or want to be educated?

 

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1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

You must not be familiar with IT.

Because anyone against illegal immigration and wanting to take measures against it hates brown people. You're drive by posts always add so much to the discussion.

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For the afternoon livestock update, cattle runs increased about, with about 15% better runs than a week ago, and getting back towards 70% of capacity, hogs added another 20K to the runs today, so we are about 10% off the low runs there, and had our first day over 300K in a couple weeks. So the production low being in is looking better, and we pushed cattle futures limit higher today, with hogs closing at recent highs as well. The retail pipeline is probably seeing the worst effects right now with the runs from last week hitting, but we should see improvement soon. The biggest problem with the plant capacity right now is not killing the animals, it's processing slowing down because of spacing. If the packers can come up with the cold storage space(spare refrigerated trailers, etc.) they can probably kill two shifts as normal, and add a third fab shift to account for spacing and get us back to normal, or find more retailers with in house meat cutters than can take carcasses and do their own cutting.  

Edited by Royalfan5
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48 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

 my anecdotal evidence in Texas....none of the landlords I know have been given forbearance or forgiveness on any properties.  Most are simply working it out with tenants and eating the loss.  These are individual owners with multiple properties.  It is their family's livelihood.  Their banks have offered nothing.

Bingo. That's been my experience too.

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I like how you described it as more PC, not more caring or compassionate.  I would never suggest that my drooling daughter infest the class of your budding Harvard genius.  She's much better off in an environment where she's allowed to develop her full potential.  Unfortunately, not everyone of the drooling kids has that opportunity.

Edited by NeverMarryAStripper
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13 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

I haven't received a reprieve or relief from any source yet I still granted deferred rent for May and June to tenants. I am not receiving any income while burning through cash to escrow for taxes and insurance and to cover maintenance. The CARES Act and the SBA loans handed out have had the unintended consequence of discouraging the payment of rent because 75% of those loans has to go towards payroll. Landlords are getting fucked on multiple fronts: a rushed relief bill that hurts us rather than helps, government shutdowns and tenants suffering from a cash crunch. Landlords can't keep hemorrhaging cash; otherwise, we are going to have financial meltdown. Even after the lockdowns end, the risk is going to be very high for a lot of tenant defaults.

Maybe the landlords should have practiced more responsible financial planning so that a two month interruption in revenue isn't a ruinous event for them.

Edited by BradInATX
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1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

If you received a reprieve on your mortgage payments, you should be passing that onto tenants.  That is LARGELY not happening.  Unfortunately, states are going to have to step in.  What WOULD make sense is that as long as there are mandates (and let's be clear, there is going to be some sort of shit going on for the rest of 2020 at a minimum), then there needs to be meaningful rules on mortgage relief and rent relief of all businesses and individuals. 

 

Actually, what is largely happening is that rent payments are down nationally (people aren’t paying) and LLs can’t evict. And both of those statements make sense with what is going on. Id flip your statement and say that it is just as true that if tenants can still make payments they should pass that along to their LLs, and that is largely not happening. 
 

People need to just take a breath and realize that there will be a lot of tenants that can’t pay, a lot of LLs that can’t pay, and a lot of lenders not getting paid, and we’ll need to try to find a way to keep all these people from sinking. I don’t know a decent way to evenly split the burden between all 3 parties, so it will probably result in the tenants getting free living and LLs and lenders splitting the cost. And there will be some tenants, LLs, and lenders that game the system, but you just have to try to minimize that, prosecute the shit out of it to discourage it when you find out about it, and accept that the benefits out weigh the problems. 

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1 hour ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

You haven't heard. Landlords like me have the resources of the Fed to become de facto lenders of last resort and also bear the weight of being an insurer against business interruption. It's a fucking joke and idiots on city councils like the one in Seattle have no clue what burdens they are placing on landlords. I have allowed deferred rent for May and June. On July 1 come hell or high water full rent is going to be demanded. Thank God I don't have properties in Seattle and other cities with an anti-business agenda.  

I guess I'm struggling to understand what the alternative is?  So you go on July 1 and demand rent, and they cant pay because they work retail, or food industry, or the hundreds of other jobs that are haven't been able to make money and got a stimulus check that might cover food and utilities.  Do you evict?  Who is going to have the money to replace that tenant?  The pro-business agenda might help you kick that poor fucker out, but its not going to help you get another tenant if no one has any fucking money.  

Your tenants didn't choose not to work, they were forced not to work.  There should be a mechanism to make them whole, which would make you whole.  Your bank account will be just as empty if you cant find another tenant, and if people are still fucked for work, thats what will happen. 

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Just now, UT_OB1 said:

People need to just take a breath and realize that there will be a lot of tenants that can’t pay, a lot of LLs that can’t pay, and a lot of lenders not getting paid, and we’ll need to try to find a way to keep all these people from sinking. I don’t know a decent way to evenly split the burden between all 3 parties, so it will probably result in the tenants getting free living and LLs and lenders splitting the cost. And there will be some tenants, LLs, and lenders that game the system, but you just have to try to minimize that, prosecute the shit out of it to discourage it when you find out about it, and accept that the benefits out weigh the problems. 

Maybe, or there will just be a metric fuck-ton of foreclosures, spurring another RE crash and round after round of HAMP/HARP-type mods.  Basically, another shit-show.  

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1 minute ago, TXSG8R said:

So you go on July 1 and demand rent, and they cant pay because they work retail, or food industry, or the hundreds of other jobs that are haven't been able to make money and got a stimulus check that might cover food and utilities.  Do you evict? 

Depends. Are we talking Jessica Nigri or Kailah Casillas?

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2 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

I guess I'm struggling to understand what the alternative is?  So you go on July 1 and demand rent, and they cant pay because they work retail, or food industry, or the hundreds of other jobs that are haven't been able to make money and got a stimulus check that might cover food and utilities.  Do you evict?  Who is going to have the money to replace that tenant?  The pro-business agenda might help you kick that poor fucker out, but its not going to help you get another tenant if no one has any fucking money.  

Your tenants didn't choose not to work, they were forced not to work.  There should be a mechanism to make them whole, which would make you whole.  Your bank account will be just as empty if you cant find another tenant, and if people are still fucked for work, thats what will happen. 

Avoiding eviction and helping to keep my tenant's businesses afloat is why I allowed them to defer rent in the first place. As you can imagine, attracting new tenants now would be a nightmare so that is why you are seeing the vast majority of landlords working with their tenants. Other than those laid off, landlords are bearing a large brunt of the economic pain without relief. Come July 1st, it is time for my tenants to scramble and make ends meet like landlords have had to do. If that means they have to borrow, forego a salary, burn through savings, etc to pay rent then that's what they have to do. I have given them time to at least come up with a solution.

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29 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

For the afternoon livestock update, cattle runs increased about, with about 15% better runs than a week ago, and getting back towards 70% of capacity, hogs added another 20K to the runs today, so we are about 10% off the low runs there, and had our first day over 300K in a couple weeks. So the production low being in is looking better, and we pushed cattle futures limit higher today, with hogs closing at recent highs as well. The retail pipeline is probably seeing the worst effects right now with the runs from last week hitting, but we should see improvement soon. The biggest problem with the plant capacity right now is not killing the animals, it's processing slowing down because of spacing. If the packers can come up with the cold storage space(spare refrigerated trailers, etc.) they can probably kill two shifts as normal, and add a third fab shift to account for spacing and get us back to normal, or find more retailers with in house meat cutters than can take carcasses and do their own cutting.  

The grocery stores I have been to during this have had their meat departments, the areas where they are cutting meat not the entire meat selling area, closed.  I think Kroger did that nationally.

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52 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Regarding education one thing that some countries do that the USA doesn’t want to do is to segregate the students, as in, the smart students go to this school, the so-so students go to this other school, and the special ed students go to this special ed school. In Austin ISD the special ed kid that requires an aid and drools on him/herself and can hardly participate in any classroom activity is in the same classroom as everyone else. That is insane.

Inclusive classrooms.  Some egghead genius who never taught a day in his life came up with that one back in the 80's, and it has permeated public schools ever since.  It was a feel good message, so it was easy to sell to parents.  It has since been proven to be absolutely terrible for all parties involved, but states have enjoyed how much cheaper it is than providing different facilities and special teachers for these kids.  If you've ever had a kid in a classroom with a severely disabled student, especially at the elementary level, it's clear that all that happens is the teacher spends the majority of her day dealing with the kid who stands to benefit the least from being in that classroom while the other kids suffer.  The net result is entire classrooms full of kids missing an entire year of education in the crucial early years.  It's certainly not the only reason our nation is full of dumbasses, but it doesn't help.  Meanwhile, the special needs kid doesn't gain much at all which is even more terrible than what happens to the other kids.  But it makes some parents feel better and state budgets love it, so...

I think the approach you describe above regarding separating out the more academically driven kids from the norms does happen here, just not on separate campuses.  Perhaps that would be better, I dunno (public school educated).

Edited by Samson's Wig
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6 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

The grocery stores I have been to during this have had their meat departments, the areas where they are cutting meat not the entire meat selling area, closed.  I think Kroger did that nationally.

I suppose that makes sense, but doesn't help the backlog. I'm guessing when this is over, we will probably see either packers or wholesales invest in more scattered fab space. A empty big box store would probably be ideal for something like this. 

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1 hour ago, Skipper said:

I don't know how it's working for all mortgages, but the common way i'm seeing COVID relief in other asset classes is simply deferring payments for X months with missed payments  tacked on to the end of the (extended) term.  That seems to be how it should work.  

Yes, either a deferrment (does not accrue interest) or a forbearance (depending on terms, could accrue interest).

Edited by PenelopeWitherspoon
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17 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

Inclusive classrooms.  Some egghead genius who never taught a day in his life came up with that one back in the 80's, and it has permeated public schools ever since.  It was a feel good message, so it was easy to sell to parents.  It has since been proven to be absolutely terrible for all parties involved, but states have enjoyed how much cheaper it is than providing different facilities and special teachers for these kids.  If you've ever had a kid in a classroom with a severely disabled student, especially at the elementary level, it's clear that all that happens is the teacher spends the majority of her day dealing with the kid who stands to benefit the least from being in that classroom while the other kids suffer.  The net result is entire classrooms full of kids missing an entire year of education in the crucial early years.  It's certainly not the only reason our nation is full of dumbasses, but it doesn't help.  Meanwhile, the special needs kid doesn't gain much at all which is even more terrible than what happens to the other kids.  But it makes some parents feel better and state budgets love it, so...

I think the approach you describe above regarding separating out the more academically driven kids from the norms does happen here, just not on separate campuses.  Perhaps that would be better, I dunno (public school educated).

tumblr_lv5o9dys0m1qiy1jco1_500.gif

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38 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I would say the same of tenants. I believe in personal responsibility.

then where the fuck does seattle get off telling tenants they get 6 more months of not paying rent.

I think IT already worked out a deal for April and May, which happens to be you know...2 months.

 

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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