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College Football in 2020 in danger?


The_Great_Hornsby

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That's a great point about not trusting the coaches. It should be taken out of their hands, but Nick Saban isn't going to let some doctor tell him his best pass rusher can't play the morning of a game.

And I agree the mass testing looks impossible as of today. But the leagues that are doing serious planning at the moment are counting on it.

Another thing I know sounds preposterous today: at some point we will have "public life" again, pre-vaccine. It will be dangerous, but the goal is for immunity, testing and treatment to make it low risk.

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Dr. Ezekiel "Zeke" Emanuel, one of the key architects of the Affordable Care Act and a special adviser to the director general of the World Health Organization, told The New York Times that he doesn't anticipate it to be safe to return to concerts, sporting events and other mass public gatherings for another 18 months.

"Restarting the economy has to be done in stages, and it does have to start with more physical distancing at a work site that allows people who are at lower risk to come back," he said. "Certain kinds of construction, or manufacturing or offices, in which you can maintain six-foot distances are more reasonable to start sooner. Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they're going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that's a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we're talking fall 2021 at the earliest. Restaurants where you can space tables out, maybe sooner."

He continued: "In Hong Kong, Singapore and other places, we're seeing resurgences when they open up and allow more activity. It's going to be this roller coaster, up and down. The question is: When it goes up, can we do better testing and contact tracing so that we can focus on particular people and isolate them and not have to reimpose shelter-in-place for everyone as we did before?"

Public health experts have repeatedly expressed their concern that Americans are underestimating how long the coronavirus pandemic will disrupt everyday life in the country.

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Let’s say that the season is moved to winter/spring 2021, although I still don’t see that happening, but let’s say it does. So does the Fall start to the 2021 season start as usual or does it also get pushed to the following winter/spring as well? If the season is moved to a later start, then players would only have like what, 3 months in between seasons? I don’t see, both logistically and taking health and recovery into account, how a fall 2021 season would go on as normal. 

Edited by SubliminalHorn
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27 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Dr. Ezekiel "Zeke" Emanuel, one of the key architects of the Affordable Care Act and a special adviser to the director general of the World Health Organization, told The New York Times that he doesn't anticipate it to be safe to return to concerts, sporting events and other mass public gatherings for another 18 months.

that guy can go straight to fucking hell

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4 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Let’s say that the season is moved to winter/spring 2021, although I still don’t see that happening, but let’s say it does. So does the Fall start to the 2021 season start as usual or does it also get pushed to the following winter/spring as well? If the season is moved to a later start, then players would only have like what, 3 months in between seasons? I don’t see, both logistically and taking health and recovery into account, how a fall 2021 season would go on as normal. 

An offseason of only July and August would make all of this worth it. 

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5 hours ago, Red Five said:

An offseason of only July and August would make all of this worth it. 

8+ months of offseason really sucks. And I’m sure you’re joking, but the increase in chances of injury go up greatly with that kind of offseason. So, I just don’t see how a late start can happen and it not completely affect the future of college football. IMO, the season either starts on time, or it starts mid fall with a shortened season, Or we are not going to see college football again until fall 2021. Sucks hard.

edit: forgot to add or college football becomes a winter/spring sport from now on. 

Edited by SubliminalHorn
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2 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

8+ months of offseason really sucks. And I’m sure you’re joking, but the increase in chances of injury go up greatly with that kind of offseason. So, I just don’t see how a late start can happen and it not completely affect the future of college football. IMO, the season either starts on time, or it starts mid fall with a shortened season, Or we are not going to see college football again until fall 2021. Sucks hard.

edit: forgot to add or college football becomes a winter/spring sport from now on. 

I think they could gradually taper down the off-season until it's back on track again. Might take a couple of years to do it in a way that minimizes the adverse effects, but it need not be permanent imho.

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38 minutes ago, wood said:

I think they could gradually taper down the off-season until it's back on track again. Might take a couple of years to do it in a way that minimizes the adverse effects, but it need not be permanent imho.

Naw, I think you just have two back to back season in one year and get back on track. 3 months in-between is plenty of time. Plus all the TV deals and stadium schedules. They are gonna want that normal Fall schedule and revenue. 

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1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Naw, I think you just have two back to back season in one year and get back on track. 3 months in-between is plenty of time. Plus all the TV deals and stadium schedules. They are gonna want that normal Fall schedule and revenue. 

I mean ... I don't disagree. My thinking on this is a lot closer to what you said than what Subliminal said.

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11 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Dr. Ezekiel "Zeke" Emanuel, one of the key architects of the Affordable Care Act and a special adviser to the director general of the World Health Organization, told The New York Times that he doesn't anticipate it to be safe to return to concerts, sporting events and other mass public gatherings for another 18 months.

"Restarting the economy has to be done in stages, and it does have to start with more physical distancing at a work site that allows people who are at lower risk to come back," he said. "Certain kinds of construction, or manufacturing or offices, in which you can maintain six-foot distances are more reasonable to start sooner. Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they're going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that's a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we're talking fall 2021 at the earliest. Restaurants where you can space tables out, maybe sooner."

He continued: "In Hong Kong, Singapore and other places, we're seeing resurgences when they open up and allow more activity. It's going to be this roller coaster, up and down. The question is: When it goes up, can we do better testing and contact tracing so that we can focus on particular people and isolate them and not have to reimpose shelter-in-place for everyone as we did before?"

Public health experts have repeatedly expressed their concern that Americans are underestimating how long the coronavirus pandemic will disrupt everyday life in the country.

I don't think it will last quite this long, but I can see where it will take time.  I don't see football or basketball played this upcoming year.  Maybe by spring they'll get something figured out.

The part that really fucking infuriates me is that you can see the progress Nebraska has been making.  There's no doubt they would have been in the playoff this year.  17 fumbles inside the 10 yard line against Texas costing you a NC is one thing, this is bullshit.

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3 hours ago, mulletpelini said:

I don't think it will last quite this long, but I can see where it will take time.  I don't see football or basketball played this upcoming year.  Maybe by spring they'll get something figured out.

The part that really fucking infuriates me is that you can see the progress Nebraska has been making.  There's no doubt they would have been in the playoff this year.  17 fumbles inside the 10 yard line against Texas costing you a NC is one thing, this is bullshit.

I'm veeeeeeery excited about the Spring diving season.....

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As much of an optimist as I am, I just don't see it happening.  I mean, even best case scenario... the virus all but goes away by July.  All it takes is for one player in, say, October, to test positive.  Then he's q'd, the team is q'd, the last two teams they play are q'd, the staff from 3 different schools are q'd.  Then what?  All three of those teams just skip 2-3 weeks of games?  All that for one player.  And there's no way, if the virus is still around, that just one player from one team gets it.  If one player tests positive, there'll be others.  

Dammit.  

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When they cancel this season - which they will - I wonder how that will impact scholarship limits when play resumes in 2021. Will the grant an increase to, say, 110 scholarship athletes, and give everyone two redshirt years (excluding this year, of course) to handle the glut of players on the teams? They'll have to spread it out over the next 4-5 years. Crazy to think about..

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55 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

When they cancel this season - which they will - I wonder how that will impact scholarship limits when play resumes in 2021. Will the grant an increase to, say, 110 scholarship athletes, and give everyone two redshirt years (excluding this year, of course) to handle the glut of players on the teams? They'll have to spread it out over the next 4-5 years. Crazy to think about..

well, they're students, so I think the focus should be on them finishing their Kiniseology and Communications and African-American Studies degrees and going pro in something other than sports. 

Man-winking-thumbs-up.jpg?format=500w

Edited by SwanderedTalent
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3 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

What'll happen is that society will go back to large gatherings way too soon. The resulting second wave will be much worse than the first time around, and then large crowds will be a no-go for much longer than just the next 9-12 months.

 

 

There will be a vaccine before "much longer than just the next 9-12 months."

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There will be a vaccine before "much longer than just the next 9-12 months."

We may find a vaccine that works within the next month. But according to the opinions of the epidemiologists and infectious disease experts, then we have to conduct clinical studies to ensure it doesn’t have any harmful side effects. Once it’s determined to be safe we have to make hundreds of millions of copies of it and get it out. Then there will be the politics of who gets the vaccine first, which could result in additional political delays.

 

I suppose it’s possible we could bypass some of the safety studies that are normally done and we could increase production through the Defense Production Act. But even then it’s probably a year before we have the vaccine distributed to the point that we are all immune. And that’s on the “very optimistic” side.

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4 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

What'll happen is that society will go back to large gatherings way too soon. The resulting second wave will be much worse than the first time around, and then large crowds will be a no-go for much longer than just the next 9-12 months.

 

 

Everybody expects the vaccine to be the savior but there has been some vaccines that took 10 years to develop. There are no guarantees with this virus, there's surprises almost daily with how it acts. Now we have the issue in Korea where 120 people that recovered from the virus have re-acquired.

Edited by Extra Anejo
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As much of an optimist as I am, I just don't see it happening.  I mean, even best case scenario... the virus all but goes away by July.  All it takes is for one player in, say, October, to test positive.  Then he's q'd, the team is q'd, the last two teams they play are q'd, the staff from 3 different schools are q'd.  Then what?  All three of those teams just skip 2-3 weeks of games?  All that for one player.  And there's no way, if the virus is still around, that just one player from one team gets it.  If one player tests positive, there'll be others.  
Dammit.  

Studies are showing the virus is not impacted by temperature like people had hoped, as was evidenced by the rapid spread of the virus through Australia in February, which was in the middle of summer for them. Plus, with zero exposure/immunity it’s not expected that summer temps will slow this down. Sheltering in place is working. But we aren’t getting a weather reprieve like many had hoped for.
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18 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

We may find a vaccine that works within the next month. But according to the opinions of the epidemiologists and infectious disease experts, then we have to conduct clinical studies to ensure it doesn’t have any harmful side effects. Once it’s determined to be safe we have to make hundreds of millions of copies of it and get it out. Then there will be the politics of who gets the vaccine first, which could result in additional political delays.

 

I suppose it’s possible we could bypass some of the safety studies that are normally done and we could increase production through the Defense Production Act. But even then it’s probably a year before we have the vaccine distributed to the point that we are all immune. And that’s on the “very optimistic” side.

 

18 minutes ago, Extra Anejo said:

Everybody expects the vaccine to be the savior but there has been some vaccines that took 10 years to develop. There are no guarantees with this virus, there's surprises almost daily with how it acts. Now we have the issue in Korea where 120 people that recovered from the virus have re-acquired.

Yep, and if we're gonna be administering this vaccine to the entire population, skimping on portions of the clinical trials just might not be a great idea.

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Aggy just claimed the MNC for 2020. 

 

As hard as I tried to fight it, I've accepted there will be no college FB in 2020. They just can't risk it due to being "amateurs". Hope I'm wrong, hell I'd be so happy to be wrong. But like as others have said, a vaccine won't magically cure everything in the next months. Plus threats of another fall spike, stick a fork in contact sports for a while. I mean honestly, if you were a wealthy professional athlete, would you want to sweat and slobber on someone during all this relatively soon? 

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2 hours ago, wood said:

 

Yep, and if we're gonna be administering this vaccine to the entire population, skimping on portions of the clinical trials just might not be a great idea.

If they tested it on the state of Oklahoma, and people became zombies from it, would anything really be different?

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3 hours ago, irishtexan said:

We may find a vaccine that works within the next month. But according to the opinions of the epidemiologists and infectious disease experts, then we have to conduct clinical studies to ensure it doesn’t have any harmful side effects. Once it’s determined to be safe we have to make hundreds of millions of copies of it and get it out. Then there will be the politics of who gets the vaccine first, which could result in additional political delays.

 

I suppose it’s possible we could bypass some of the safety studies that are normally done and we could increase production through the Defense Production Act. But even then it’s probably a year before we have the vaccine distributed to the point that we are all immune. And that’s on the “very optimistic” side.

I know what the normal trajectory is (doctor wife). I'm just saying that "much longer than the next 9-12 months" is longer than would be typical, and this has been progressing relatively rapidly. 

Edited by LTbear
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22 hours ago, irishtexan said:

When they cancel this season - which they will - I wonder how that will impact scholarship limits when play resumes in 2021. Will the grant an increase to, say, 110 scholarship athletes, and give everyone two redshirt years (excluding this year, of course) to handle the glut of players on the teams? They'll have to spread it out over the next 4-5 years. Crazy to think about..

Important to note; when the NCAA granted an extra year of eligibility to spring sports, it wasn't just for seniors.  Everyone got an extra year of eligibility...meaning, some schools simply are not going to be able to afford the scholarship ramifications on their spring sports in the coming years, especially without football carrying the financial load.

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Important to note; when the NCAA granted an extra year of eligibility to spring sports, it wasn't just for seniors.  Everyone got an extra year of eligibility...meaning, some schools simply are not going to be able to afford the scholarship ramifications on their spring sports in the coming years, especially without football carrying the financial load.

I'm just wondering what they do on scholarship limits. If 90% of the players who intended to play this year come back next year, and you don't have a year for players to learn they're never gonna see the field and they transfer, then you add a new class, there's basically no way any school will be able to stay under 85. Or every school takes like 10 players in the next two classes. 

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