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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

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5 hours ago, Captainant said:

I'm pretty used to being called dumb, but that's usually followed by something of actual substance rather than consistent personal attacks. You don't even engage with the argument I'm making and just call me a retard or shizo or doorknob licker. @immamac has always been pretty consistent with "no personal attacks" as a site rule so I'm just doing what he's asked and reporting instead of responding in kind. 

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You're too dumb engage with but you are a unique kind of message board hemlock. At least you understand you are highly regarded, that's about all one can expect.

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18 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

You're too dumb engage with but you are a unique kind of message board hemlock. At least you understand you are a retard, that's about all one can expect.

Lemme know when you get to the bottom of Adam Schiff and Zelensky conspiring to rig an election lol

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53 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

You're too dumb engage with but you are a unique kind of message board hemlock. At least you understand you are a retard, that's about all one can expect.

This is the kind of post that has no substance and adds less than nothing to the conversation. Knock it off. 

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So most people here outside of Lenny understand that an individual data point is not information. I am interested in the signal not the noise.

Efficient market theory says you can't time the market. Mostly true, but you can be a little smarter. You can see trends. So for example, I think this is four in a row that came in above expectations. Of course my thesis is that this is driven by money printing. Said money printing has started to move up at a rate that is totally out of control. We've reached the steep part of the curve.  Jamie Dimon discussed this recently: 

Quote

It is important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus. There is also a growing need for increased spending as we continue transitioning to a greener economy, restructuring global supply chains, boosting military expenditure and battling rising healthcare costs. This may lead to stickier inflation and higher rates than markets expect. Furthermore, there are downside risks to watch.

Every asset class is going to be affected. We've mostly got over the idiots saying "it can't happen here", so it's a much more rational discussion. Almost certainly the disaster hits within five years, possibly sooner. It really depends on when we go into recession. Deficits >12% during economic expansion are unheard of in our history. The government is borrowing almost 50% of what it is spending NOW, before the recession. Financial repression is a thing, everyone will sell their bonds and get out of the dollar when they realize what we've done.

What Raoul Pal said about "we are all debt slaves" was really powerful. Pal's Bitcoin argument has some holes, for example I am not seeing a flood of money into BTC today, but regardless, I am positioning the portfolio to benefit from the inevitable. It seems like the money printing is finally driving prices up.  I mean, I was a decade early and all, but here we are. It's not an argument I wanted to win. 

I blame mostly the 535 ladies and gentlemen of Congress. I hope they all get uncurable leprosy.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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CPI has lagging indicators, especially housing. It’s close to the 2% target once you look at where housing is headed and remove the volatility of energy. 

However, the economy has to be pushed clearly into a recession to generate significant unemployment, which would drop inflation firmly into the 2% range or possibly even lower, and also slow down coastal housing inflation  

But, with deficits and debt so high the government can’t afford a major recession or the debt and deficits will get so scary as to be potentially catastrophic. 

So they will be reluctant to push too hard. The coming wave of real estate defaults will probably cause a major impact. So they will not raise rates, wait for the real estate crash, and then adjust rates modestly.  Inflation will continue to run hot for the next 10 years (3-4%) and they will inflate away the debt.

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1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

So they will be reluctant to push too hard. The coming wave of real estate defaults will probably cause a major impact. So they will not raise rates, wait for the real estate crash, and then adjust rates modestly.  Inflation will continue to run hot for the next 10 years (3-4%) and they will inflate away the debt.

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I’m reading that services inflation came in hot. That is not good, but is not surprising given the ridiculous increases in insurance rates. 

And by the way, we need to get the lawyers under control. The lawsuits are getting out of control. People suck and will sue for anything and everything. 

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3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I’m reading that services inflation came in hot. That is not good, but is not surprising given the ridiculous increases in insurance rates. 

And by the way, we need to get the lawyers under control. The lawsuits are getting out of control. People suck and will sue for anything and everything. 

This last is no lie.  I spend over half my time being an expert in either litigation or administrative law cases.  Everyone is suing and lawyering up, in every jurisdiction too.  Not just big cities.  Out in BFE too.

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This last is no lie.  I spend over half my time being an expert in either litigation or administrative law cases.  Everyone is suing and lawyering up, in every jurisdiction too.  Not just big cities.  Out in BFE too.

Except that’s literally untrue. I work with a group that just pulled data on that exact point for a presentation to professionals. We actually had a hypothesis that the number of disputes going to court had increased. We were wrong. Over the past several years, the number of suits filed has declined. The number of cases going trial has declined. The percentage of cases that settle at mediation has held steady.

We had our crusade against “lawsuit abuse!” 20 years ago. It didn’t do shit except increase the profits of insurance companies, and fuck over people who had actually meritorious claims. Sure, let’s have another crusade against people’s right to hold other people accountable. Fuck it, we’ve pretty much decided to ditch the rule of law anyway, might as well finish the job. All disputes settled by violence now, let’s get it done.
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I’m reading that services inflation came in hot. That is not good, but is not surprising given the ridiculous increases in insurance rates. 
And by the way, we need to get the lawyers under control. The lawsuits are getting out of control. People suck and will sue for anything and everything. 

Shakespearean….
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4 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I’m reading that services inflation came in hot. That is not good, but is not surprising given the ridiculous increases in insurance rates. 

And by the way, we need to get the lawyers under control. The lawsuits are getting out of control. People suck and will sue for anything and everything. 

Suing is a civil liberty in the United States that is unmatched elsewhere in the world.  As brisket notes, efforts to "get the lawyers under control" always hurt those with meritorious claims more than anyone else.

How about we try getting the insurers under control?

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39 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Except that’s literally untrue. I work with a group that just pulled data on that exact point for a presentation to professionals. We actually had a hypothesis that the number of disputes going to court had increased. We were wrong. Over the past several years, the number of suits filed has declined. The number of cases going trial has declined. The percentage of cases that settle at mediation has held steady.

We had our crusade against “lawsuit abuse!” 20 years ago. It didn’t do shit except increase the profits of insurance companies, and fuck over people who had actually meritorious claims. Sure, let’s have another crusade against people’s right to hold other people accountable. Fuck it, we’ve pretty much decided to ditch the rule of law anyway, might as well finish the job. All disputes settled by violence now, let’s get it done.

I must have touched you where the bad man did.  I can tell you that in my field, permits from the state of Texas, there has been a sharp increase in contested case hearings, so much so that SOAH is backed up like a bad toilet.  
 

My point remains with my narrow focus.  I am personally doing more legal adjacent expert work than I ever have before.  And I only do it for clients I am already working for- I am not an expert for hire.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


Except that’s literally untrue. I work with a group that just pulled data on that exact point for a presentation to professionals. We actually had a hypothesis that the number of disputes going to court had increased. We were wrong. Over the past several years, the number of suits filed has declined. The number of cases going trial has declined. The percentage of cases that settle at mediation has held steady.

We had our crusade against “lawsuit abuse!” 20 years ago. It didn’t do shit except increase the profits of insurance companies, and fuck over people who had actually meritorious claims. Sure, let’s have another crusade against people’s right to hold other people accountable. Fuck it, we’ve pretty much decided to ditch the rule of law anyway, might as well finish the job. All disputes settled by violence now, let’s get it done.

 

44 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Suing is a civil liberty in the United States that is unmatched elsewhere in the world.  As brisket notes, efforts to "get the lawyers under control" always hurt those with meritorious claims more than anyone else.

How about we try getting the insurers under control?

Don’t know what data you are referencing but my best friend is a senior exec in the insurance industry and has been doing underwriting for 30 years and he said absolutely lawsuits and payments are up massively. I also see it all the time myself. 

And yes you need lawyers to keep companies in check, but there is a needed balance. 
 

 

 

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I must have touched you where the bad man did.  I can tell you that in my field, permits from the state of Texas, there has been a sharp increase in contested case hearings, so much so that SOAH is backed up like a bad toilet.  
 
My point remains with my narrow focus.  I am personally doing more legal adjacent expert work than I ever have before.  And I only do it for clients I am already working for- I am not an expert for hire.

There are more contested permit cases because…there are many more permit applications…because our population and development has exploded. While the size and staffing of SOAH has remained about the same. On a per capita basis, there hasn’t been any material increase in those disputes.
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Speaking of inflation.  I need to increase my rates.  By a lot.  I saw what the attorneys are charging my clients. And I’m tired of giving my expertise away.  I’m thinking 500 an hour might be too much but 400 seems reasonable.

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13 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


Except that’s literally untrue. I work with a group that just pulled data on that exact point for a presentation to professionals. We actually had a hypothesis that the number of disputes going to court had increased. We were wrong. Over the past several years, the number of suits filed has declined. The number of cases going trial has declined. The percentage of cases that settle at mediation has held steady.

We had our crusade against “lawsuit abuse!” 20 years ago. It didn’t do shit except increase the profits of insurance companies, and fuck over people who had actually meritorious claims. Sure, let’s have another crusade against people’s right to hold other people accountable. Fuck it, we’ve pretty much decided to ditch the rule of law anyway, might as well finish the job. All disputes settled by violence now, let’s get it done.

Considering the number of lawyers on this site arguing 24/7, this above seems accurate

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13 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

 

Don’t know what data you are referencing but my best friend is a senior exec in the insurance industry and has been doing underwriting for 30 years and he said absolutely lawsuits and payments are up massively. I also see it all the time myself. 

An Insurance Exec complaining that there are too many lawsuits??!?!? Now I've seen everything. 

What's next, Doctors moaning about malpractice suits?

Surely we can go back to the old system where meritorious claims are paid out in full and only non-meritorious claims are denied.

Edited by Storm the Field
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58 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

This guy gets it 

That has been my amateur opinion for a while now.  My perspective has been more "people need to readjust to current inflation rates, which are hardly exorbitant", but the point stands.  We need to slowly cut rates.

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3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

That has been my amateur opinion for a while now.  My perspective has been more "people need to readjust to current inflation rates, which are hardly exorbitant", but the point stands.  We need to slowly cut rates.

If we can make Americans only compare this year vs last year and memory hole the prior three, then yes, inflation is not bad at all. 
 

It is a significant reduction of standard of living for the non-investor class. 
 

It’s Been 30 Years Since Food Ate Up This Much of Your Income

https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/its-been-30-years-since-food-ate-up-this-much-of-your-income-2e3dd3ed?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

Edited by ChickenSandwich
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Lower rates aren't going to address house price appreciation of 44% from 2018.  That shit is entrenched from 12-month trailing comps and the next dipshit buyer bidding over list, leveraging their iBuyer service, or using it as a vehicle to park liquidity while AirBnB or rent-seeking for the next generation.

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2 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

If we can make Americans only compare this year vs last year and memory hole the prior three, then yes, inflation is not bad at all. 
 

It is a significant reduction of standard of living for the non-investor class. 
 

 

It’s Been 30 Years Since Food Ate Up This Much of Your Income

https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/its-been-30-years-since-food-ate-up-this-much-of-your-income-2e3dd3ed?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

Point at this fat guy who eats fast food every meal

Edited by StassneyHorn
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On 4/10/2024 at 8:58 PM, Hefeweizen said:

I must have touched you where the bad man did.  I can tell you that in my field, permits from the state of Texas, there has been a sharp increase in contested case hearings, so much so that SOAH is backed up like a bad toilet.  
 

My point remains with my narrow focus.  I am personally doing more legal adjacent expert work than I ever have before.  And I only do it for clients I am already working for- I am not an expert for hire.

So, are your clients "little guys" or moneyed interests of the type who in the past supported tort reform?

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1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

So, are your clients "little guys" or moneyed interests of the type who in the past supported tort reform?

Yes?  Generally I would say the latter, although that’s a function of my work, which is obtaining new permits rather than working to prevent them from being issued.  But usually, the little people are bystanders while cities and counties are the main opposition to my clients. 

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On 4/7/2024 at 5:19 PM, 52-80 said:

Your command of English must be as good as it is of Economics. 

The verb agreement choice depends on context and/or region. Here’s UT Law faculty Wayne Schiess who “teaches legal writing, legal drafting, and plain English“:

English is my 2nd language (out of 4).  What’s your excuse?

You just proved his point, dumbass.

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On 4/11/2024 at 1:32 PM, washparkhorn said:

Yeah, no. People are thinking twice about selling because they wont make as much as they would have before? Oh no! Where was all the bleating about the unattainable explosion of asset prices when leverage was free?

Easy credit got us into this, it won’t get us out, and if sectors of this economy don’t work with very normal 5% interest rates it’s the sector that needs change only tighter credit can provide.

Big picture: we need much more and much smaller housing that doesn’t need free debt to make sense. Near term, if people want their house to sell faster they can drop prices. Until then unemployment is low, businesses are hiring, wages are rising and things are pretty good.
Normalizing rates is like the veer offense or novacaine. It always works. Just give it time. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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