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Realignment talk not going away


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3 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

I think it's more likely that Oregon and Washington stay in the PAC and try to recruit Big12 teams to them than that they bail on the PAC for the Big12.  Their preferred options have to be:

  1. Join the B1G
  2. Stay in an expanded PAC by poaching some Big12 teams
  3. Figure out some ACC/PAC merger? lol
  4. Join the SEC
  5. ...
  6. Join the Big12

Yeah, that is why the Big 12 needs to make a strong push to the Arizona schools while Oregon and Washington are actively trying to leave for the Big 10. Get that ship sinking so that staying isn't much of an option for the rest of them.

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Been listening to various of the regional CFB insiders weigh in on these latest developments for a few hours this morning.  My general impression is no one knew this was coming, and in general they are all reacting and “guessing/speculating” what might come next.  Obviously everyone is looking at the likes of Oregon, UW, Stanford, Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame types for their next reactions while also wondering if the SEC might want some of that west coast TV money.  A lot of speculation of a “remaining” Big XII/PAC 12 merger as a preemptive action the commissioners of those 2 conferences could explore.  Talk about Big Ten/SEC members looking at new broadcasting deals that would give member schools $100million per while acknowledging that there’s not much the remaining conferences could do to come anywhere close to that so there may not be a “3rd Conference” when the dust settles or conferences at all for that matter.  Other speculation about a soccer-type “relegation” model for the have-not’s, though this seems a little more tricky to me even if I kind of like the concept.  

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Obviously it has been a while and Virginia Tech has made strides since then, but it's hard for me to believe that they are "the MVP of the ACC," given that the Virginia legislature basically had to force the ACC to take them in the first place.

Duke, UNC, and UVA didn't want them primarily because they are the dominant force in that market.  It's the same reason USCe wouldn't want Clemson in the SEC, and A&M didn't want Texas.

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28 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

The Big 12 should only try to get the Arizona schools. Wait and see if Washington/Oregon end up in the Big 10. Would be awful to get Utah/Colorado if they could have had Oregon/Washington.

Listening to our insiders, it sounds like Oregon and UDub are lobbying hard for the B1G.  Stanford saying they would rather play in the Ivy League than sell out for the B1G.  They don’t need the money.  But the PAC is dead.  So they better figure it out. I see AZ, ASU, CU, and Utah to the Big 12 as a real possibility.  Cal, OSU and Wazzu left in no man’s land.  
 

with the move to real big boy football, does ucla finally make a real step forward?  I think we might.  UCLA has had to fundraise like crazy just to cover the pandemic losses.  With +/- $100 mil per year in media revenue, the fundraising can shift to NIL.  The donor money is there.  We need Wasserman to shift his focus to creating the NIL pipeline 

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1 minute ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

I think it's more likely that Oregon and Washington stay in the PAC and try to recruit Big12 teams to them than that they bail on the PAC for the Big12.  Their preferred options have to be:

  1. Join the B1G
  2. Stay in an expanded PAC by poaching some Big12 teams
  3. Figure out some ACC/PAC merger? lol
  4. Join the SEC
  5. ...
  6. Join the Big12

From the metrics that matter (ability to attract eyeballs to football games) the leftover PAC is complete trash after Oregon/Washington… and the two of them aren’t anything super special. They are basically on-par with the top of the leftover Big 12 (BYU/OSU/WVU) in that regard. The rest of the leftover Big 12 (save for KU) is MUCH stronger in that regard than the leftover PAC.  K-State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, and everyone else have much larger and more engaged fan bases than Oregon State, Wash State, Stanford, Cal, etc.

If Washington/Oregon can’t land in the B1G they would be much better off joining some combo of the AZ schools, Colorado or Utah and join the new Big 12.

Honestly, if Oregon/Washington can’t land in the B1G, the biggest bang-for-buck from a media standpoint would be for them and the AZ schools to join the Big 12. That would be a very solid league of 16 after the B1G/SEC.

  • Washington
  • Oregon
  • Arizona State
  • Arizona
  • BYU
  • Texas Tech
  • TCU
  • Baylor
  • Oklahoma State
  • Houston
  • Cincy
  • UCF
  • Iowa State
  • Kansas
  • Kansas State
  • WVU

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Asu2215 said:

So, it sounds like you want the top 16-24 teams in one superconference that can play it out for the big natty. If that is the case, I think we are agreement. I would say those teams should have at it and remaining 90-100 teams can go 1-AA.

"big natty"?

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8 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

From the metrics that matter (ability to attract eyeballs to football games) the leftover PAC is complete trash after Oregon/Washington… and the two of them aren’t anything super special. They are basically on-par with the top of the leftover Big 12 (BYU/OSU/WVU) in that regard. The rest of the leftover Big 12 (save for KU) is MUCH stronger in that regard than the leftover PAC.  K-State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, and everyone else have much larger and more engaged fan bases than Oregon State, Wash State, Stanford, Cal, etc.

If Washington/Oregon can’t land in the B1G they would be much better off joining some combo of the AZ schools, Colorado or Utah and join the new Big 12.

Honestly, if Oregon/Washington can’t land in the B1G, the biggest bang-for-buck from a media standpoint would be for them and the AZ schools to join the Big 12. That would be a very solid league of 16 after the B1G/SEC.

  • Washington
  • Oregon
  • Arizona State
  • Arizona
  • BYU
  • Texas Tech
  • TCU
  • Baylor
  • Oklahoma State
  • Houston
  • Cincy
  • UCF
  • Iowa State
  • Kansas
  • Kansas State
  • WVU

 

 

 

and then focus on basketball and baseball

that is some ugly travel for UCF and WVU but they may have no choice.

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9 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Listening to our insiders, it sounds like Oregon and UDub are lobbying hard for the B1G.  Stanford saying they would rather play in the Ivy League than sell out for the B1G.  They don’t need the money.  But the PAC is dead.  So they better figure it out. I see AZ, ASU, CU, and Utah to the Big 12 as a real possibility.  Cal, OSU and Wazzu left in no man’s land.  
 

with the move to real big boy football, does ucla finally make a real step forward?  I think we might.  UCLA has had to fundraise like crazy just to cover the pandemic losses.  With +/- $100 mil per year in media revenue, the fundraising can shift to NIL.  The donor money is there.  We need Wasserman to shift his focus to creating the NIL pipeline 

Had not considered Stanford going Ivy League, but that kind of makes sense and wouldn't shock me.  Same with Cal.  I imagine they'd both go that route before playing in some B12 conglomerate with TCU/BYU/Baylor.

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9 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

From the metrics that matter (ability to attract eyeballs to football games) the leftover PAC is complete trash after Oregon/Washington… and the two of them aren’t anything super special. They are basically on-par with the top of the leftover Big 12 (BYU/OSU/WVU) in that regard. The rest of the leftover Big 12 (save for KU) is MUCH stronger in that regard than the leftover PAC.  K-State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, and everyone else have much larger and more engaged fan bases than Oregon State, Wash State, Stanford, Cal, etc.

If Washington/Oregon can’t land in the B1G they would be much better off joining some combo of the AZ schools, Colorado or Utah and join the new Big 12.

That might all be true, but I just can't see UW and Oregon swallowing their pride enough to join the Big12 w/ "lesser" schools in their mind.  In their mind they are logo schools.  We'll see!

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6 minutes ago, statsman said:

No. UW, Oregon, Cal and Stanford are a hell of a lot better than any four of the B12 leftovers. You have history, fan support, TV attractiveness, big stadiums, academic quality…

Go look at the TV metrics man. They are out there. They’ve been posted a million times in this thread.

Oregon and Washington are roughly on-par with OSU, BYU and WVU.

None of the other leftovers draw shit, either in terms of fans in the stadiums or eyeballs to TV.  Stanford and Cal have fancy names but nobody watches them. 

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2 minutes ago, hawkfan said:

Had not considered Stanford going Ivy League, but that kind of makes sense and wouldn't shock me.  Same with Cal.  I imagine they'd both go that route before playing in some B12 conglomerate with TCU/BYU/Baylor.

Now that would be some crazy travel costs for Stanford.  It might be worth it for academic reasons, but the closest school would be what, Cornell?

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Just now, Horn of Gabriel said:

That might all be true, but I just can't see UW and Oregon swallowing their pride enough to join the Big12 w/ "lesser" schools in their mind.  In their mind they are logo schools.  We'll see!

Oh I agree. Their #1 choice is B1G by a large margin I’m sure.

But if the B1G drags their feet and dicks around for too long, they don’t want to be stuck with the rest of the PAC leftovers because that will be financial suicide.

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12 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Time to just kill conferences as we know them.  Send the decent parts of the PAC, Big Xii, and ACC to the SEC and BiG. Call them the north and south conference, break them into divisions. Play ball with a “Super College Bowl” at the end. 

Yeah they are archaic now. We probably need a merger of the big conferences and a split into divisions into a "college" league. NFL-Lite basically.

College Basketball and other sports will continue as they always have just with this weird super conference of the big football schools.

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19 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

From the metrics that matter (ability to attract eyeballs to football games) the leftover PAC is complete trash after Oregon/Washington… and the two of them aren’t anything super special. They are basically on-par with the top of the leftover Big 12 (BYU/OSU/WVU) in that regard. The rest of the leftover Big 12 (save for KU) is MUCH stronger in that regard than the leftover PAC.  K-State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, and everyone else have much larger and more engaged fan bases than Oregon State, Wash State, Stanford, Cal, etc.

If Washington/Oregon can’t land in the B1G they would be much better off joining some combo of the AZ schools, Colorado or Utah and join the new Big 12.

Honestly, if Oregon/Washington can’t land in the B1G, the biggest bang-for-buck from a media standpoint would be for them and the AZ schools to join the Big 12. That would be a very solid league of 16 after the B1G/SEC.

  • Washington
  • Oregon
  • Arizona State
  • Arizona
  • BYU
  • Texas Tech
  • TCU
  • Baylor
  • Oklahoma State
  • Houston
  • Cincy
  • UCF
  • Iowa State
  • Kansas
  • Kansas State
  • WVU

 

 

 

I think it's more likely to be a third coast to coast league with the best of the PAC, XII, and ACC, especially if the SEC and Big 10 can successfully cripple the ACC. My hope is that the new Big XII commissioner is in charge of whatever comes out of this through PAC-XII merger or new Coast to Coast league. It will be the clear-cut third and needs to do things different than SEC and Big 10. Trying to go the traditional route like those leagues is useless. 

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Just now, Valmy77 said:

Yeah they are archaic now. We probably need a merger of the big conferences and a split into divisions into a "college" league. NFL-Lite basically.

College Basketball and other sports will continue as they always have just with this weird super conference of the big football schools.

Yeah it really does seem like the end game is getting the top ~50 programs into one big “super league” that represents the top of college football... I imagine how we get there is that B1G and SEC slowly add teams to get to about 25 each then merge.

That one super league then makes deals with the broadcast partners and tells the NCAA to fuck off.  And once that’s done, we can finally get back to some divisions that make sense geographically and keep historic rivalries intact.

So basically back to what things were like in the 1980s/1990s but everyone is under one “umbrella” conference that then have an NFL model for playoffs with division winners/wild cards/etc.

I just wish we could just GET THERE because the interim years we are in now are going to be confusing and stupid.

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11 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Minnesota beat writer who started tweeting about USC and UCLA to the B10 back in March has some updates.  Given his track record, despite not having a blue check, his statements bear some thought:

 

 

 

 

 

One thing's for sure, Notre Dame finds themselves in one hell of a bargaining position.......as usual.  Leverage plays all over the place between the ACC and Big Ten with repercussions for the rest of the landscape whichever direction they ultimately choose to go in.  Notre Dame could precipitate the dissolving of the ACC with a simple decision to join the Big Ten.  And once the Irish lions leave the carcass, the jackals move in to pick off what's left.  Sucks to be 'almost famous' in this landscape.    

Edited by Steelers Roll Left
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6 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Yeah they are archaic now. We probably need a merger of the big conferences and a split into divisions into a "college" league. NFL-Lite basically.

College Basketball and other sports will continue as they always have just with this weird super conference of the big football schools.

I think we are headed toward a super league that leaves the NCAA, and I don't see how the other sports continue business as usual under that scenario.

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3 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

I think we are headed toward a super league that leaves the NCAA, and I don't see how the other sports continue business as usual under that scenario.

I cannot see how it would make good business sense for the non-revenue sports (or even Men's Basketball, do the big conferences really want to see March Madness destroyed?) to leave the NCAA. Football will.

The others will leave if it makes business sense to do so, I just don't see why it would.

Edited by Valmy77
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1 hour ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

The Big 12 should only try to get the Arizona schools. Wait and see if Washington/Oregon end up in the Big 10. Would be awful to get Utah/Colorado if they could have had Oregon/Washington.

Fine to skip Utah and CU, but then actively go for Oregon and Washington. Ask Oregon and Washington if they want their little brothers to come along since the Big 10 probably won't take OSU and WSU.

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8 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Yeah it really does seem like the end game is getting the top ~50 programs into one big “super league” that represents the top of college football... I imagine how we get there is that B1G and SEC slowly add teams to get to about 25 each then merge.

That one super league then makes deals with the broadcast partners and tells the NCAA to fuck off.  And once that’s done, we can finally get back to some divisions that make sense geographically and keep historic rivalries intact.

So basically back to what things were like in the 1980s/1990s but everyone is under one “umbrella” conference that then have an NFL model for playoffs with division winners/wild cards/etc.

I just wish we could just GET THERE because the interim years we are in now are going to be confusing and stupid.

 

I was thinking about this last night, but as a sort humorous/ironic consideration.

When the dust finally settles on all the movement, we're all gonna wind up playing (many of) the same regional opponents we were playing every year, 40 years ago.

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8 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Well, we know which Mega Conference would be winning every single national championship, every single year.....

At least as things stand now. With such a dramatic re-alignment and without the SECSECSEC branding things might shift around.

Besides Ohio State is always lurking in the other mega conference.

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46 minutes ago, hawkfan said:

Had not considered Stanford going Ivy League, but that kind of makes sense and wouldn't shock me.  Same with Cal.  I imagine they'd both go that route before playing in some B12 conglomerate with TCU/BYU/Baylor.

He said rather do Ivy than Big Ten.  Doesn’t mean they want to join the Ivy League.  I could see them going independent in football and joining the WCC or making a hybrid public/private league with Cal with the best of the WCC and Big West for their other sports.  Stanford is an odd bird like that.

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If I'm in charge of each conference:

ACC: Getting Notre Dame is pretty much a do or die proposition. Gotta go all in on them, give them what they want. Imo the ACC can survive all this but they need ND. If they get ND, they could then go poach 3 others - I'd go for TCU, UH, and WVU, Cincy, or UCF. That would be a good conference.

SEC: I don't really think this changes much tbh. SEC is still easily the top dog with the TX/OU additions. If some ACC schools are interested, cool, but no need to do anything.

Big 10: Go for ND, Oregon, and UW, in that order. (as a fan, I hate the addition of West Coast teams but whatever) Could also look at Cincy, WVU, Kansas.

Pac / Big 12: Have to merge together. Probably too many schools to do that now which is where the ACC poaching a few Big 12 schools could actually be mutually beneficial. Pretty much no way they can catch the other 3 at this point, but they could remain relevant by merging. 

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15 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

SEC to add UNC, UVA, FSU, and Miami to take it to 20 teams? I just read it in this post. 

To me, the most likely outcome is:

SEC adds FSU, Clemson, Miami (territory and recruiting purposes), and either UNC or Va Tech

B1G adds Notre Dame, Washington, Oregon, and either Cal, UNC, or UVA

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PAC 12 and BIG 12 trying to merge or the ACC trying to add a couple of more teams to me is putting a band-aid on a serious wound.

4f48bd801118cf2041e8dfeb6e08aedca0a54b5d

I think Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina and Duke should leave the ACC. In my view their best two options are the following:

1.    Get invited to SEC or B1G.
Pros: Land in a place the is well organized and in the driver seat for super conferences.
Cons: May get to big and eventually break-up and could be scrambling once again.

2.    Form a new conference as one of the 3 super conferences.
Premise: This only works if the schools don't see option #1 as a better option because they want to have more sway in a super conference that has a chance to survive.
Pros: More control of own future due to being founding member of the conference. Secure a spot which means more money just in case left out.
Cons: Could still end up getting picked off by SEC and B1G. Less money if top football school.

If #2 premise is the case for these teams then I see if Notre Dame, Oregon and Washington feel the same way. If that is the case the new conference would look as follows:
Here are the teams in the conference (American Coast to Coast Conference or whatever).
    4. Notre Dame
       "Joins" the new conference with voting rights and disproportionate revenue share.
        (3 road conference games but gets paid 50% share of the big boys plus stay independent)

Full Share Teams
    12. Clemson
    17. Florida State
    24. Miami
    25. Washington
    26. Oregon
    28. Virginia Tech
    41. North Carolina
    71. Duke

Partial Share Teams (The rest goes to paying Notre Dame and exit fee loans eventually just Notre Dame)
    29. West Virginia or 48. Pittsburgh
    32. Oklahoma State
    33. Texas Tech
    35. Louisville
    37. Arizona State
    39. Utah
    40. Stanford
    52. Arizona
    60. Kansas


Above rankings based on https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/new-and-improved-ranking-84-college-football-programs-by-brand-value-6e2c65f64515

 

  

 

 

Edited by DanTheHorn
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No. UW, Oregon, Cal and Stanford are a hell of a lot better than any four of the B12 leftovers. You have history, fan support, TV attractiveness, big stadiums, academic quality…

Cal and Stanford have awful fan support. Oregon and Stanford have smaller stadiums than half the new Big 12
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7 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

To me, the most likely outcome is:

SEC adds FSU, Clemson, Miami (territory and recruiting purposes), and either UNC or Va Tech

B1G adds Notre Dame, Washington, Oregon, and either Cal, UNC, or UVA

ND maybe the prize jewel remaining, but selfishly I wish the SEC would add UNC for the road trips, and also because UNC is aligned with Texas in terms of being a powerhouse in athletics, academics, and research. But SEC doesn’t care much for book learnin’, so bring on Miami and FSU!

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1 minute ago, Murfdogg21 said:

ND maybe the prize jewel remaining, but selfishly I wish the SEC would add UNC for the road trips, and also because UNC is aligned with Texas in terms of being a powerhouse in athletics, academics, and research. But SEC doesn’t care much for book learnin’, so bring on Miami and FSU!

Miami is a really good school, actually. 

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12 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

PAC 12 and BIG 12 trying to merge or the ACC trying to add a couple of more teams to me is putting a band-aid on serious wound.

4f48bd801118cf2041e8dfeb6e08aedca0a54b5d

I think Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina and Duke should leave the ACC. In my view their best two options are the following:

1.    Get invited to SEC or B1G.
Pros: Land in a place the is well organized and in the driver seat for super conferences.
Cons: May get to big and eventually break-up and could be scrambling once again.

2.    Form a new conference as one of the 3 super conferences.
Premise: This only works if the schools don't see option #1 as a better option because they want to have more sway in a super conference that has a chance to survive.
Pros: More control of own future due to being founding member of the conference. Secure a spot which means more money just in case left out.
Cons: Could still end up getting picked off by SEC and B1G. Less money if top football school.

If #2 premise is the case for these teams then I see if Notre Dame, Oregon and Washington feel the same way. If that is the case the new conference would look as follows:
Here are the teams in the conference (American Coast to Coast Conference or whatever).
    4. Notre Dame
       "Joins" the new conference with voting rights and disproportionate revenue share.
        (3 road conference games but gets paid 50% share of the big boys plus stay independent)

Full Share Teams
    12. Clemson
    17. Florida State
    24. Miami
    25. Washington
    26. Oregon
    28. Virginia Tech
    41. North Carolina
    71. Duke

Partial Share Teams (The rest goes to paying Notre Dame and exit fee loans eventually just Notre Dame)
    29. West Virginia or 48. Pittsburgh
    32. Oklahoma State
    33. Texas Tech
    35. Louisville
    37. Arizona State
    39. Utah
    40. Stanford
    52. Arizona
    60. Kansas


Above rankings based on https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/new-and-improved-ranking-84-college-football-programs-by-brand-value-6e2c65f64515

 

  

 

 

Just focusing on "one" of your mentions above: I don't really see how Duke has a seat at the tables we're discussing unless UNC "brings them with them" UCLA-style.  Small, private school that was irrelevant until a guy named Coach K came along and ferried the university into "basketball" relevance.  Marginal "at best" at football and historically in the conversation as one of the worst football programs in D1, AND that Coach K?.........he's departed for the parade to the afterlife as might the Duke athletics program

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https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/07/01/stock-report-pac-12-survival-options-for-oregon-and-uw-the-big-12-as-hunter-scotts-legacy-and-more/

From the article:

From here, it’s clear the Big Ten’s next move is to grab Notre Dame. If the Irish are willing to end their existence as an Independent, they would need either one or three partners to accompany them into the Big Ten (for even numbers). The Huskies and Ducks might become candidates at that point, along with North Carolina.

But we don’t envision a near-term scenario in which either Northwest school is offered admission to the Big Ten without Notre Dame involved. And that could take time, perhaps years.

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Just now, hawkfan said:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/07/01/stock-report-pac-12-survival-options-for-oregon-and-uw-the-big-12-as-hunter-scotts-legacy-and-more/

From the article:

From here, it’s clear the Big Ten’s next move is to grab Notre Dame. If the Irish are willing to end their existence as an Independent, they would need either one or three partners to accompany them into the Big Ten (for even numbers). The Huskies and Ducks might become candidates at that point, along with North Carolina.

But we don’t envision a near-term scenario in which either Northwest school is offered admission to the Big Ten without Notre Dame involved. And that could take time, perhaps years.

I just don't fucking get it, something changes, but nothing else follows for a decade. Just fucking realign already and get it the fuck over with.

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