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Posted

If money matters, I'd take a lucrative 1-year NIL deal over a late 2nd round pick any day of the week.  Say, $6M for one year vs $12M for 4 years?  Time value of money, buy some insurance, he'll be fine.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

If he goes anywhere it’ll be Notre Dame, from what I hear from the ND side. 

 

he's coming off two trips to the semifinals. he'll get a very generous NiL deal 

Posted

a good way to have nearly no legacy at Texas is to transfer portal somewhere else and play another season. Either win it all and do it somewhere else against Texas or don't and cement yourself as a guy who couldn't get it done. I don't see a reason why unless he really just thinks he sucks and won't make it in the NFL (I don't think that's the case) 

You gotta go to the NFL here, there's really very little upside to coming back to NCAA and not coming back to Texas.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If money matters, I'd take a lucrative 1-year NIL deal over a late 2nd round pick any day of the week.  Say, $6M for one year vs $12M for 4 years?  Time value of money, buy some insurance, he'll be fine.

Recent second round picks:

2023

Top of 2nd Round
Will Levis - 4 year , $9,542,165  - $3,939,756 signing bonus - $8,731,080 guaranteed

3rd Round
Hendon Hooker - 4 year , $5,719,021 - $1,159,288 signing bonus - $1,159,288 guaranteed

2021 Bottom of 2nd Round
Kyle Trask - 4 year , $5,535,337 - $1,385,700 signing bonus, $1,385,700 guaranteed

Obviously from 2021 to 2023 salary caps and the guaranteed money has changed. That is only going to increase moving forward.


 

Posted
1 minute ago, AlrightAlrightAlright said:

Obviously from 2021 to 2023 salary caps and the guaranteed money has changed. That is only going to increase moving forward.

I can't tell if you're agreeing with my point or disputing it.

Posted
2 minutes ago, AlrightAlrightAlright said:

Recent second round picks:

2023

Top of 2nd Round
Will Levis - 4 year , $9,542,165  - $3,939,756 signing bonus - $8,731,080 guaranteed

3rd Round
Hendon Hooker - 4 year , $5,719,021 - $1,159,288 signing bonus - $1,159,288 guaranteed

2021 Bottom of 2nd Round
Kyle Trask - 4 year , $5,535,337 - $1,385,700 signing bonus, $1,385,700 guaranteed

Obviously from 2021 to 2023 salary caps and the guaranteed money has changed. That is only going to increase moving forward.


 

 

i saw a mock draft this weekend that had the jets picking him in the 1st. i hadn't seen him in the 1st for most the season 

Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I can't tell if you're agreeing with my point or disputing it.

Just posting some numbers from different areas of the draft and their numbers for context of the money available. If he can be near the top of the second round as a draft pick and get similar deal to Levis that seems better than the NIL deal at the college level. It is a gamble that he has place but that is where he has to have faith in himself and his ability while trusting what his team is being told from NFL people. Personally given his injury history I think it is smarter to move on to the NFL where you can work toward your second contract. The best lucrative position that health isn't a concern is backup NFL QB...if he isn't a starting caliber NFL QB he can definitely make a career in the NFL being the backup.

Posted
$6M to risk an injury that ends your career or $1M+ to play one of best/safest jobs in all of sports (also, it's contractually $1M+ per year and a $1M+ signing bonus if he goes round 3, which feels right)? Give me the easy button.

They still do the insurance policies?
Posted
3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

i saw a mock draft this weekend that had the jets picking him in the 1st. i hadn't seen him in the 1st for most the season 

While I'm not a big fan of Ewers, he doesn't deserve that.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, AlrightAlrightAlright said:

Just posting some numbers from different areas of the draft and their numbers for context of the money available. If he can be near the top of the second round as a draft pick and get similar deal to Levis that seems better than the NIL deal at the college level. It is a gamble that he has place but that is where he has to have faith in himself and his ability while trusting what his team is being told from NFL people. Personally given his injury history I think it is smarter to move on to the NFL where you can work toward your second contract. The best lucrative position that health isn't a concern is backup NFL QB...if he isn't a starting caliber NFL QB he can definitely make a career in the NFL being the backup.

Man, give me $6M guaranteed tomorrow over $9M guaranteed over 4 years.  Insure against the difference.

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Posted
18 minutes ago, immamac said:

a good way to have nearly no legacy at Texas is to transfer portal somewhere else and play another season. Either win it all and do it somewhere else against Texas or don't and cement yourself as a guy who couldn't get it done. I don't see a reason why unless he really just thinks he sucks and won't make it in the NFL (I don't think that's the case) 

You gotta go to the NFL here, there's really very little upside to coming back to NCAA and not coming back to Texas.

I see somewhere between 6 to 8 million upsides if the NIL rumors are true.

Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Man, give me $6M guaranteed tomorrow over $9M guaranteed over 4 years.  Insure against the difference.

Guaranteed is guaranteed and 9m > 6m. Also if he somehow moves into the bottom of the 1st round the numbers go up.

 

20th pick from 2022
Kenny Pickett- 4 year $14,067,905 - $7,411,204 signing bonus- $14,067,905 guaranteed

26th pick from 2020
Jordan Love - 4 year $12,383,453 - $6,566,863 signing bonus - $12,383,453 guaranteed

Posted
4 minutes ago, AlrightAlrightAlright said:

Guaranteed is guaranteed and 9m > 6m.

The $9M is spread over 4 years.  You're literally banking on him having a career ending injury that will result him not be drafted at all.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The $9M is spread over 4 years.  You're literally banking on him having a career ending injury that will result him not be drafted at all.

It is still guaranteed money no matter what. What if he comes back, gets injury to his throwing shoulder, and falls further down the draft boards? He's essentially gambling 3 million dollars considering both values would be guaranteed. 

Posted
1 minute ago, AlrightAlrightAlright said:

It is still guaranteed money no matter what. What if he comes back, gets injury to his throwing shoulder, and falls further down the draft boards? He's essentially gambling 3 million dollars considering both values would be guaranteed. 

Jesus, did you read what multiple people have said?  Insure the $3M.  Call Lloyd's of London.

If he DOESN'T get injured he made $6M in one year instead of $2.25M and he's already ahead of the game, ignoring insurance.

Posted
2 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Grab the 6m and improve draft stock

Or grab the $6M and plummet your draft stock with another season where you miss 2-3 games and dissappear for long stretches in almost every other game.

The smart play is go to the NFL and get your 1st contract, then you can heal up and learn for a season or two.

Posted

$6M @ 10.6% grows to $9M in 4 years.

Yeah, it's hard to get 10.6%.  It's still a lesson in the time value of money.  He doesn't need it, he's already made millions and I seriously doubt he's blown through it.

Posted

I'm more surprised there's a team out there willing to pay him $6M for a stiff that self sacks and has terrible accuracy on deep passes. Is Notre Dame or Ole Miss that desperate?  

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Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Jesus, did you read what multiple people have said?  Insure the $3M.  Call Lloyd's of London.

If he DOESN'T get injured he made $6M in one year instead of $2.25M and he's already ahead of the game, ignoring insurance.

That hinders the long term NFL money though, that's the point. Especially if he gets injured again and his stock tanks further. Getting to second NFL contract will allow him to make the most money he will make as a pro unless he is a top tier QB in the league and gets to a 3rd or 4th contract. Not only getting to the second contract but getting your tenure in the NFL and the lifetime benefits that come along with that. 

 

Posted

Rules question here:

My understanding is he would have to wait until April to transfer, at this point?

And the deadline to him to declare for the NFL draft is January 24th?

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Posted
1 hour ago, The Ace of Aces said:

If he goes anywhere it’ll be Notre Dame, from what I hear from the ND side. 

That makes no sense to me. Replace Leonard with Quinn and there's no way they are in the final this year. Milroe makes a lot more sense to me for what ND does with their QB. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Gandalfish said:

Rules question here:

My understanding is he would have to wait until April to transfer, at this point?

And the deadline to him to declare for the NFL draft is January 24th?

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

The deadline to enter the portal for Texas players is Wednesday. Enrolling at another school would depend on their last date to add/drop classes but there is exceptions that Dean's can make. Generally it's the end of January for this.  

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Posted
21 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

I'm more surprised there's a team out there willing to pay him $6M for a stiff that self sacks and has terrible accuracy on deep passes. Is Notre Dame or Ole Miss that desperate?  

Hi there! I really enjoy your content and I'm looking for someone trustworthy to assist with receiving a payment into their bank account. For appreciation, I will give you a good rate. if you're able to assist, send me a DM. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, immamac said:

a good way to have nearly no legacy at Texas is to transfer portal somewhere else and play another season. Either win it all and do it somewhere else against Texas or don't and cement yourself as a guy who couldn't get it done. I don't see a reason why unless he really just thinks he sucks and won't make it in the NFL (I don't think that's the case) 

You gotta go to the NFL here, there's really very little upside to coming back to NCAA and not coming back to Texas.

 

at least 50% of the fan base dislikes him / blame him for arch not starting this season 

that don't pay the bills 

Edited by tx 3 putt
Posted
19 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Quinn said he's going to the NFL, so I'm assuming he's going to the NFL. 

I would be fucking pissed if he went to the portal. As immamac said, his legacy at Texas would be immediately tarnished. But more importantly IMO, Sark bent over backwards to protect and lift up Quinn this year, possibly to the detriment of our potential on offense.  The succession plan was clearly Ewers to the NFL and Arch taking over in 2025. We rushed Quinn back vs. OU, had him limping around the field vs. Kentucky even when the game got uncomfortable. Sark did everything he could to keep Quinn on the field and to avoid a QB controversy. He was injured most of the year and that was a consistent excuse given when our offense struggled. If he transfers to another school, let's get in a fucking time machine and hand the keys to Arch after the UTSA game. 

So anyways, thank you, Quinn. You were a great Longhorn. Now please go ahead and announce for the NFL draft. 

 

hank sums up my feelings overall to which i will add the following; note i have not read this thread in more than a year so if my take is a duplication my apologies....

i offer the ewers camp the following for their consideration:

 

right now they can run with the narrative that he didn't self-sack and he is not injury-prone because of "the texas offensive line" (not true, but it sells, at this time)

the hate engine doesn't watch our games, the above narrative feeds confirmation bias, and right now, it plays with 80% of league GMs who don't know any different

nil anywhere and not win a title is extremely probable

nil anywhere and get injured again means this decision was a 1-time payday

have both of those things happen somewhere else, and the current narrative is played out

will lloyd's insure against self-sacking or niggling ankle/shoulder injuries?

is the ewers camp satisfied with what ewers has earned through nil + the final nil payday next year somewhere else + whatever he can make in the nfl?

does the ewers camp think he has 8-figure earning potential in the league?

 

here's some numbers for a certain player, the team data is obfuscated to illustrate the point; the team names were the divisions those teams were in at the time of the 1970 merger

the last number format is year.contract (in that year)


Career Earnings: $2,668,585

10 years, 20 contracts, 13 contracts with zero earnings

nfc west Drafted Terminated 1.1

nfc west Practice Terminated 1.2

afc east Practice Expired 1.3

afc east SFA Terminated 2

nfc central SFA Terminated 3.1

afc west Practice Expired 3.2

afc west SFA Terminated 4

expansion SFA Terminated 5.1

expansion Practice Renegotiated 5.2

expansion SFA Terminated 5.3

expansion SFA Terminated 6

afc central SFA Terminated 7

afc central Practice Renegotiated 8.1

nfc east SFA Terminated 8.2

afc east Practice Terminated 9.1

nfc east SFA Expired 9.2

afc west SFA Terminated 10.1

afc east Practice Elevated 10.2

afc east Practice Expired 10.3

afc east Practice Elevated 10.4

his last contract expired in january 23

 

the individual whose career is above illustrated was the last high-profile quarterback to transfer from The University

 

Garrett Gilbert

 

source: https://overthecap.com/player/garrett-gilbert/3153

 

 

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Posted
43 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

hank sums up my feelings overall to which i will add the following; note i have not read this thread in more than a year so if my take is a duplication my apologies....

i offer the ewers camp the following for their consideration:

 

right now they can run with the narrative that he didn't self-sack and he is not injury-prone because of "the texas offensive line" (not true, but it sells, at this time)

the hate engine doesn't watch our games, the above narrative feeds confirmation bias, and right now, it plays with 80% of league GMs who don't know any different

nil anywhere and not win a title is extremely probable

nil anywhere and get injured again means this decision was a 1-time payday

have both of those things happen somewhere else, and the current narrative is played out

will lloyd's insure against self-sacking or niggling ankle/shoulder injuries?

is the ewers camp satisfied with what ewers has earned through nil + the final nil payday next year somewhere else + whatever he can make in the nfl?

does the ewers camp think he has 8-figure earning potential in the league?

 

here's some numbers for a certain player, the team data is obfuscated to illustrate the point; the team names were the divisions those teams were in at the time of the 1970 merger

the last number format is year.contract (in that year)


Career Earnings: $2,668,585

10 years, 20 contracts, 13 contracts with zero earnings

nfc west Drafted Terminated 1.1

nfc west Practice Terminated 1.2

afc east Practice Expired 1.3

afc east SFA Terminated 2

nfc central SFA Terminated 3.1

afc west Practice Expired 3.2

afc west SFA Terminated 4

expansion SFA Terminated 5.1

expansion Practice Renegotiated 5.2

expansion SFA Terminated 5.3

expansion SFA Terminated 6

afc central SFA Terminated 7

afc central Practice Renegotiated 8.1

nfc east SFA Terminated 8.2

afc east Practice Terminated 9.1

nfc east SFA Expired 9.2

afc west SFA Terminated 10.1

afc east Practice Elevated 10.2

afc east Practice Expired 10.3

afc east Practice Elevated 10.4

his last contract expired in january 23

 

the individual whose career is above illustrated was the last high-profile quarterback to transfer from The University

 

Garrett Gilbert

 

source: https://overthecap.com/player/garrett-gilbert/3153

 

 

So, take the $6M?

15 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

if quinn came back to UT and beat out arch for the starting position, how would you feel ?

I'd feel fine for next year, but pissed after.

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Posted
34 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

if quinn came back to UT and beat out arch for the starting position, how would you feel ?

In the voice of some prof from years gone by, "that likelihood is vanishingly small, the proof of which is left to the interested student."

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Slacks said:

So, take the $6M?

i would

on top of what he has earned with us, his NPV is already close to 10m

that's enough to bankroll a no-bling lifestyle for 2 wives, 4 kids, 8 grandkids

then whatever you earn in the league is gravy for boats 'n shit

if he flounders someplace else he's on the gilbert track

if he has a similar injury pattern he's on the gilbert track

nil giveth, nil taketh away

as long as he does not go to a sec team he's in my good graces

if we have to meet him in the playoffs, that's great for him and great for us

i know which qb i'm betting on

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Posted
19 hours ago, UTEE97 said:

Ant Hill deserves more criticism than Quinn for giving up the long TD run before the half. What the hell was he doing taking himself out of the play, as if he had no intention of tackling the ball carrier? 

lol yeah blame the defense when the O can’t put up 20 fucking points and constantly goes 3 and out. 
 

Quinn gave it his all I guess, but it was obvious to anybody really watching that he was never going to win it all. Stacked team and stacked targets but his pocket presence was so far below average it held the offense back late in the year. 
 

Could’ve gave Arch some real snaps instead of pretending he was Tim Tebow, but instead Sark stuck with Quinn and just altered his play calling to try and win with a statue at QB. 
 

Hope Quinn can go somewhere and make lots of money and do well, he seems like a good dude. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

if quinn came back to UT and beat out arch for the starting position, how would you feel ?

I’d be in the fire Sark camp. 

Quinn didn’t beat out Arch this year, he was just given the job back and never lost it because Sark didn’t want to destroy his confidence. 

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Posted (edited)

I think he goes pro, but not much he has shown is what is needed for a NFL QB, poor pocket presence, slow decision making and floating downfield balls is a recipe for disaster in the NFL.  If I was him I’d take 6 million to transfer in a heartbeat because right now there’s a slim chance he makes it to a second NFL contract.  If he falls to third round his whole first contract is probably 5-6 million…  

Edited by Hook1997
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Posted
2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

if quinn came back to UT and beat out arch for the starting position, how would you feel ?

Not taking advantage of the Manning brand would be a colossal mistake. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

if quinn came back to UT and beat out arch for the starting position, how would you feel ?

Better questions:

How would the Manning family feel?

How would the college football media world feel?

How would prospective 5 star QBs feel?

How would prospective 5 star WRs feel?

How would Arch feel?

Those are the questions you really should ask with your hypothetical. 

Then you can ask fans.

 

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Posted
 
i saw a mock draft this weekend that had the jets picking him in the 1st. i hadn't seen him in the 1st for most the season 

That would be the most Jets thing ever.
Posted
13 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

Not taking advantage of the Manning brand would be a colossal mistake. 

I just don't see this as an even remote possibility , I think its higher probability that Ewers would come back to teach Arch the ropes than this and I see this as near 0. 

I get that a lot of people are down on Sark for some poor play calling at moments, and deservedly so. But he's also shown (imo) that he understands how to build a program and is going to leverage the shit out of having a Manning at QB and he can't do that with him on the bench. 

 

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Posted
39 minutes ago, Zeus said:

I’d be in the fire Sark camp. 

Quinn didn’t beat out Arch this year, he was just given the job back and never lost it because Sark didn’t want to destroy his confidence. 

I'm 100% sure that Quinn beat out Arch this year. Stop being ridiculous. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

I just don't see this as an even remote possibility , I think its higher probability that Ewers would come back to teach Arch the ropes than this and I see this as near 0. 

I get that a lot of people are down on Sark for some poor play calling at moments, and deservedly so. But he's also shown (imo) that he understands how to build a program and is going to leverage the shit out of having a Manning at QB and he can't do that with him on the bench. 

 

Sark makes mistakes like any HC but he's not regarded and stiffing Manning isn't in the game plan. 

It's a stupid fucking hypothetical that's never happening.

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