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House prices falling like woah


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On 12/5/2022 at 8:04 AM, slorch said:

Now do it in New Jersey... Slorch Jr is living that shit, but I reminded him recently-  you didn't move there for financial reasons.  Closing on their first home in next 10 days or so. I could add my last 2 houses together and not equal the price of their (older) new home.

Yep.  Experiencing the same in OC.  Can't believe what I get for what I pay but I guess I value location over size.

On 12/5/2022 at 6:45 AM, Viking said:

New home prices for starter homes are still crazy high to me. 3/2 2100 sqft in Mansfield going for just under 500k like this https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Foundry_South-Pointe-Cottage-Series_1700-Burney-Street_Mansfield_TX_76063_P417000615818

Fucking Mansfield. Not Plano or Southlake or some rich suburb that is built out.

I can afford these prices but I worry about my kids. They'll need to get married and both make 6 figures to afford a home.

I hate to be that guy, but I'm gonna be that guy.  That is easily 1.5 mil in a lot of cities in California.  It's a nice house.

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37 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

I was looking at buying a place in Vegas a few months ago.  Passed.  Now, the builder sends me an email with up to 100k markdowns on a 650k home.  Drops in most markets, even in Texas I think.

Yeah some builders are in a predicament to an extent because they need to move their homes. There’s some listings I see that are priced correctly nowadays and then some that are too high, I’m guessing because their balance sheets aren’t healthy enough to sell it for what it’s listed. But yeah builders are a different animal in this market currently. 

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1 hour ago, closetohumping said:

I was looking at buying a place in Vegas a few months ago.  Passed.  Now, the builder sends me an email with up to 100k markdowns on a 650k home.  Drops in most markets, even in Texas I think.

What's the upshot of having a place in Vegas? Or do you have enough life and work there to make it worth it?

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I got lucky and knew what i was doing.  I went up 2.5 times in 5 years and sold at the top.  I bought high in Cali but this is such a constrained market (completely mature) that prices don’t change.  
 

I still think the price on lower cost homes can’t go down that much.  I just don’t see 200k starter homes in central Texas again.  It costs 40k to build the lot.  If the land under it is 15k and you have 15 in profit to the developer, that’s 70 to 75 to the builder.  Which means that they have to build a 2000 sq ft house for under 100 per square to make any money at 300, and at 50 per square at 200 which is impossible.

 

 Get used to the idea of a 275k starter home.

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3 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Get used to the idea of a 275k starter home.

We’re hiring new kids of out college with no experience at $70k/year just for having any type of technical degree. 20 years ago it was $35k/year.

Many around here can afford the extra $75k. It’s the teachers, nurses, first responders and the like that we’d need to find solutions for.

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Nothing is dropping in our neighborhood in Naples but nothing is selling either.  Raw 7000 sq ft lots are priced at about $800k.  It's still insane.  Rental market is crazy but that is because of Ian damage.  Displaced people are renting during rehab and out of town contractors are renting places and paying absurd prices because they're making money hand over fist.

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2 hours ago, SuperSport said:

Still a $100k-$200k premium vs. 12-18 months ago for North Dallas and 'burbs. If you want to be West of US-75, you have to go past fucking Celina to find some semblance of affordability.

That's why my broke ass is in Little Elm

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On 12/7/2022 at 8:31 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Yeah some builders are in a predicament to an extent because they need to move their homes. There’s some listings I see that are priced correctly nowadays and then some that are too high, I’m guessing because their balance sheets aren’t healthy enough to sell it for what it’s listed. But yeah builders are a different animal in this market currently. 

Most I see are still sitting in good shape. Their profits are up 2x-3x this year because they have been able to hold costs and sell at inflated rates. Met with a guy yesterday that does about 50 houses a year whose costs were within a couple percent of 2021 and his sales are up $2M+ because of the increase in market pricing on houses. He runs all his own crews and buys materials and warehouses them when the prices go up or down.

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22 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

Even raw land prices in the boonies went way up (TX) last 3 years. Bound to be coming down I would think. Raw land interest rates are astronomical. The only buyers are probably selling from big gains in the city. 

Why are they higher than real estate rates? I didn’t know they were higher, just my luck. Wife and I are considering buying some land in Mills County.

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1 hour ago, RMac5 said:

Why are they higher than real estate rates? I didn’t know they were higher, just my luck. Wife and I are considering buying some land in Mills County.

I've purchased land 3 times -- lending was much more difficult.  10 year notes, higher rates, to my recollection.

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1 hour ago, RMac5 said:

Why are they higher than real estate rates? I didn’t know they were higher, just my luck. Wife and I are considering buying some land in Mills County.

 

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I've purchased land 3 times -- lending was much more difficult.  10 year notes, higher rates, to my recollection.

A building has immediate income producing capability, thus is easy for a bank to sell. Land typically does not, hence the risk is higher for a bank. 

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7 minutes ago, RMac5 said:

@jimmyjazz @Dbeasy thanks for the info. Are the real estate lenders the same for acreage, or are there more specialized lenders for rural stuff?

I'm just a civilian, but my land loans (very small parcels) were all from small regional banks.  I don't really know the business side.

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I own 51 ac Mills County. Original loan through Mills County State Bank. I forget the interest rate, but I bet it was 400bp higher than a conventional loan (that can more easily be resold and are backed by feds). I don't blame em: if I lost my job and I had to skip a payment, I wouldn't skip my car payment and I wouldn't skip my home loan. And like they said above, market is less liquid. For a few years I got pretty large coop member refunds, so that was nice. 

Anyway, eventually did a cash out refinance on my main home, because the rate is soooo much better.

2 hours ago, RMac5 said:

Wife and I are considering buying some land in Mills County.

Cool! I'm up near Mullin. I noticed several developments near Goldthwaite, chopping up bigger spreads into more manageable/sellable small chunks.

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Land rates are higher because the risks are higher to the bank, same reason debt to equity is lower. Most banks will only do 60% on raw land. Risks are higher because there is no government backing of the loans and no ability to resell the loans. It also can be more expensive to foreclose land and the market for buyers out of foreclosure is lower. Appraisals aren’t as accurate either. Plus which payments are you prioritizing if there is an issue.

Banks aren’t looking at houses as income producing opportunities, they are just looking at their overall risks and how quickly they can clear a problem.

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Thanks Clever! This would be about 65 or so acres. Was thinking about calling MC Bank in Goldthwaite tomorrow to get the details on that type of loan. I’m sort of torn on whether or not to purchase. I love being down in that area, in Amarillo now, but not sure it’s something my boys would be interested in when I’m plant food. Be nice to build a barndo or something and have a cool place to hang out when it’s frigid in the Panhandle. My wife’s family has been in that county for close to a hundred years, they are in the NE part of the county, close to the Mt Olive Cemetery.

Thanks @Brew! All of that makes sense now.  The whole repo piece y’all have mentioned never even entered my mind from a risk standpoint to the lender.

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One note on Capital Farm Credit - If there is anything unique about your situation, then I would look for a local lender. I purchased a ranch several years ago and needed essentially a bridge loan as I was waiting on some severance payments. I explained the whole situation to Capital Farm Crédit multiple times and was told the loan wouldn’t be an issue. After the seller accepted my offer, Capital Farm Credit couldn’t deliver and I had to scramble to find a new lender. Eventually went with Crockett National Bank and they were excellent.

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Just a random thing I noticed... I do a monthly Excel sheet of accounts. Part of that includes the value of the house, which I take the average of Redfin/Zillow.

Just looked at it and noticed that Redfin has a chart showing the estimated value over the past five years. Except, it's lying. The chart shows a big rise followed by a flattening.

But just last June the value according to Redfin was in the $680K range. So it's now dropped $170K in about six months. You'd never know it by looking at their chart. I wonder what they get out of not showing their actual estimated history.

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Redfin is garbage.  Last I checked they have our house valued at 62% of the county tax office's assessed value.  Redfin's valuation of our two next door neighbors are 86% and 98% of their county assessments.  Very similar lots, our house is 7 years old, the other two are 65 and 45 years old, respectively.  

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