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Houston Astros off-season thread


Wulaw Horn

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3 hours ago, wood said:

So the CBT is effectively meaningless and toothless, correct?

Well he’s still going to count about $46 million a year against it, which is a massive amount, the most ever. And this deal requires pretty much the perfect storm of a guy who makes enough in endorsements and wants to win badly enough that he’s willing to defer almost his entire salary to get it down even to that number.

But it’s definitely pushing the limits of it, yeah. I would expect this sort of contract to be addressed in the next CBA. Maybe put a limit on the percentage of total salary you can defer? I don’t know.

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7 hours ago, formermav43 said:

Well he’s still going to count about $46 million a year against it, which is a massive amount, the most ever. And this deal requires pretty much the perfect storm of a guy who makes enough in endorsements and wants to win badly enough that he’s willing to defer almost his entire salary to get it down even to that number.

But it’s definitely pushing the limits of it, yeah. I would expect this sort of contract to be addressed in the next CBA. Maybe put a limit on the percentage of total salary you can defer? I don’t know.

Oh, ok. Cool. I'd heard something very different. This makes a lot more sense.  Good!

Re: that last line, yep. Or let them defer as much as they want to, but they have to count even more or all of it under the cap.

Edited by wood
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Sooooooooo, what's the realistic Altuve extension going to look like, and how much of it should be deferred?  Cause that has to happen this offseason, and spreading out the cash owed during the "down" years in the future seems pretty smart to me.

Altuve at 5 for 120 with 60m deferred?  Spread out those payments from 2029-2034 and drop his AAV down to about 15m. 

Then for Bregman, how about 8 for 220 with 120m deferred?  Why not? I mean, he's a good player and worth it. You know he probably wants to stay here if he can get paid. Drop his AAV down to 20m and roll with it. The team has plenty of talent to keep making the playoffs at the very least. Grab a few free agents in 25 and keep the ball rolling!  If it ends up bankrupting Crane and he's forced to sell the team, well then sucks to be him but it's a risk I'm willing to take. Might as well use this tool while it's available. 

Edited by Dutchrudder
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People are blowing the impact of potential deferrals way out of proportion.  The net effect of the Ohtani situation is that he signed a $460M/10yr contract; it’s not like he gave the Dodgers a discount or won’t have a huge impact on their CBT amount.  Houston may utilize some deferrals in an Altuve extension but it’s not a magic pill to get players to take a big discount or dramatically circumvent the CBT.  In Altuve’s case I think a more effective/likely tool is to structure his extension with an extra year on it with a significant buyout so the amount gets spread over a longer period, lowering the CBT AAV.  If Altuve says he wants to play thru age 39 and asks for $150M/5yrs, give him $155M/6yrs with the last year being a player option with his choice of a buyout.  
 

Bregman is not going to take a discount, whether thru deferrals or otherwise.  With a year to his standard he will command $200M+ easy.  Houston is not extending or re-signing him.

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18 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

People are blowing the impact of potential deferrals way out of proportion.  The net effect of the Ohtani situation is that he signed a $460M/10yr contract; it’s not like he gave the Dodgers a discount or won’t have a huge impact on their CBT amount.  Houston may utilize some deferrals in an Altuve extension but it’s not a magic pill to get players to take a big discount or dramatically circumvent the CBT.  In Altuve’s case I think a more effective/likely tool is to structure his extension with an extra year on it with a significant buyout so the amount gets spread over a longer period, lowering the CBT AAV.  If Altuve says he wants to play thru age 39 and asks for $150M/5yrs, give him $155M/6yrs with the last year being a player option with his choice of a buyout.  
 

Bregman is not going to take a discount, whether thru deferrals or otherwise.  With a year to his standard he will command $200M+ easy.  Houston is not extending or re-signing him.

Ohtani was going to get north of 600+ million over 10 years. 700m was not out of the question either. They get to pay him 700m in total, while only taking 480m of that in CBT, and I think that's pretty significant.  That's a huge break with a 32% discount on his value, which is unheard of in deferral deals. In the past 15% was about the max teams were saving in what counted against the tax, without going insanely overboard like the Dodgers did here. I'm suggesting the Astros take advantage of it before that loophole goes away, or is amended with something sensible like "only 25% of the total contract can be deferred."

If you know you want to pay a guy like Altuve, who absolutely deserves it, why not give him a little more, and spread it out over the 2030s when revenues will be significantly higher?  It's not like he needs the money, he's earned 160 million+ in the past few years, so sustained income and keeping the team competitive may be worth it to him. He's a team guy, I'm sure he would be interested. Saving 20% on his annual tax hit would allow for more flexibility while the team is still a contender. 

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36 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Ohtani was going to get north of 600+ million over 10 years. 700m was not out of the question either. They get to pay him 700m in total, while only taking 480m of that in CBT, and I think that's pretty significant.  That's a huge break with a 32% discount on his value, which is unheard of in deferral deals. In the past 15% was about the max teams were saving in what counted against the tax, without going insanely overboard like the Dodgers did here. I'm suggesting the Astros take advantage of it before that loophole goes away, or is amended with something sensible like "only 25% of the total contract can be deferred."

If you know you want to pay a guy like Altuve, who absolutely deserves it, why not give him a little more, and spread it out over the 2030s when revenues will be significantly higher?  It's not like he needs the money, he's earned 160 million+ in the past few years, so sustained income and keeping the team competitive may be worth it to him. He's a team guy, I'm sure he would be interested. Saving 20% on his annual tax hit would allow for more flexibility while the team is still a contender. 

Where is there anything other than pure rumor that Ohtani was offered $600M+ with no deferrals?  To me $460M/10yrs seems pretty close to what his other offers likely were.  Balanced against the additional endorsement income that comes with being in LA and I feel pretty confident that Ohtani took the most financially lucrative deal he was offered.  There’s a huge factor here in assuming the discount rate the CBT uses to calculate the present value of the payments is aligned with reality, so sure, if you think Ohtani was going to earn 20% investment income on whatever he would have been paid in real time then it looks very stupid.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Where is there anything other than pure rumor that Ohtani was offered $600M+ with no deferrals?  To me $460M/10yrs seems pretty close to what his other offers likely were.  Balanced against the additional endorsement income that comes with being in LA and I feel pretty confident that Ohtani took the most financially lucrative deal he was offered.  There’s a huge factor here in assuming the discount rate the CBT uses to calculate the present value of the payments is aligned with reality, so sure, if you think Ohtani was going to earn 20% investment income on whatever he would have been paid in real time then it looks very stupid.

Yep, I think the quote from the unnamed #2 team for Ohtani was, we didn't offer $699M.

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1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Another thing I just learned is that apparently Ohtani can avoid CA income tax on the deferred money if he lives elsewhere when it is paid out.

Anyone saying that this is the case has never had to deal with the CA Franchise Tax Board.  Those fuckers are going to come hard for Ohtani.

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9 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Where is there anything other than pure rumor that Ohtani was offered $600M+ with no deferrals?  To me $460M/10yrs seems pretty close to what his other offers likely were.  Balanced against the additional endorsement income that comes with being in LA and I feel pretty confident that Ohtani took the most financially lucrative deal he was offered.  There’s a huge factor here in assuming the discount rate the CBT uses to calculate the present value of the payments is aligned with reality, so sure, if you think Ohtani was going to earn 20% investment income on whatever he would have been paid in real time then it looks very stupid.

The Giants GM was quoted as saying they offered nearly the exact same deal as the Dodgers, so I don't think it's the least bit unlikely that other teams offered him 600-700m over 10. 

"The San Francisco Giants made three offers to Shohei Ohtani, including a final proposal that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi called "very comparable if not identical" to the record $700 million, 10-year contract the Japanese two-way star agreed to with the rival Los Angeles Dodgers."

Are you really arguing that no other team was willing to give him more than 10 for 460m?  Because that's not reality, teams like Steve Cohen and the Mets would have gladly signed him for 10/500 at the very least, probably 600+ too.  His off-field revenue pays for most of his cost, the issue is with the tax hits he brings, but the deferral limits that to a relatively reasonable amount. 

Again, coming back to how this is relevant to the Astros, Jose Altuve is in the last year of his deal. He's 34, is still doing really well with his bat, slightly down on fielding this year, but should keep playing 4-5 more years. Why not take a guy like that and apply the same logic to him if he's willing?  5 for 125 with much of it deferred?  Why not use this advantage while it's available?  Those dollars aren't going to be worth 25m a year in the future, so they might as well use it to maximum effect. 

As for Bregman, they need to find a third baseman of the future if he's not getting extended. There is no one in the farm system ready to step up into that role. If they can use this tool to extend him and help alleviate some of his cap hit, why not?  

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7 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

The Giants GM was quoted as saying they offered nearly the exact same deal as the Dodgers, so I don't think it's the least bit unlikely that other teams offered him 600-700m over 10. 

"The San Francisco Giants made three offers to Shohei Ohtani, including a final proposal that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi called "very comparable if not identical" to the record $700 million, 10-year contract the Japanese two-way star agreed to with the rival Los Angeles Dodgers."

Are you really arguing that no other team was willing to give him more than 10 for 460m?  Because that's not reality, teams like Steve Cohen and the Mets would have gladly signed him for 10/500 at the very least, probably 600+ too.  His off-field revenue pays for most of his cost, the issue is with the tax hits he brings, but the deferral limits that to a relatively reasonable amount. 

Again, coming back to how this is relevant to the Astros, Jose Altuve is in the last year of his deal. He's 34, is still doing really well with his bat, slightly down on fielding this year, but should keep playing 4-5 more years. Why not take a guy like that and apply the same logic to him if he's willing?  5 for 125 with much of it deferred?  Why not use this advantage while it's available?  Those dollars aren't going to be worth 25m a year in the future, so they might as well use it to maximum effect. 

As for Bregman, they need to find a third baseman of the future if he's not getting extended. There is no one in the farm system ready to step up into that role. If they can use this tool to extend him and help alleviate some of his cap hit, why not?  

To believe what you do, you have to believe Shohei Ohtani is either stupid or naive.  The “evidence” you pointed to is a rumor that the Giants offered a “nearly identical” deal to Ohtani, which means major deferrals.  Not very convincing.

The bottom line to this deferral business is that the agents and players aren’t that stupid.  They’re not going to give up tons of money.  Altuve is represented by Scott Boras; I’m sure he’s begging the Astros to defer a shitload of money on some lowball Altuve extension.  The idea of Altuve accepting some deal that significantly reduces his tax hit thru deferrals is not realistic.  And it’s even less realistic for Bregman, who is also represented by Boras.

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3 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

The only reason Ohtani could propose something like this is because he makes $50mm + in annual revenue from endorsements. Obviously Bregman and Altuve can’t afford to do something so crazy. 

You can’t expect Altuve to live on the mere $163.5 million that he made under his current contract can you?

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8 hours ago, texashorne said:

The only media options that fucking matter to me are those of TK, Blum and Julia. The rest can go eat a dong. 

I enjoy Charlie and Clanton both.  Not sure if they technically still qualify as 'media' but that's how I view them.

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I’m listening to an interview between Kalas and Dana - I presume it was today but not sure. He is gushing about Caratini and is shitting on Maldonado by everything he’s saying. Im sure it’s confirmation bias but he seems to imply Maldy was not good at the things he’s raving about Caratini - especially framing and, ya know, being an MLB caliber catcher. 

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1 hour ago, Planet Houston said:

I’m listening to an interview between Kalas and Dana - I presume it was today but not sure. He is gushing about Caratini and is shitting on Maldonado by everything he’s saying. Im sure it’s confirmation bias but he seems to imply Maldy was not good at the things he’s raving about Caratini - especially framing and, ya know, being an MLB caliber catcher. 

Maldonado was awful at framing last year, worse than Diaz. That's why everyone in the organization was so vague in what Maldonado brought to the team, because by every measurable standard he was fucking awful.

Using fangraphs.

Maldonado was -15.5 

Diaz was -3.0

Caratini was 6.3

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48 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

So I’m preparing to not make any trades or anything that will get me excited and hope doing nothing is the right decision and we end up winning 100 games and winning the WS.

Don’t know about WS bc it’s so random, but yeah/ we gonna win 100 with decent (not perfect) health and luck. 

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