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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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4 minutes ago, blutow said:

I'm honestly surprised how many in the media are saying that FSU should be out while one loss Texas/Bama/Oregon should be in.  I think it's wrong, but I want to believe...  

I think it's wrong too. But if the committee goes the direction of saying their charge is to figure out the best teams now - in order to justify picking Bama depite H2H - then I can see them rationalizing FSU away. 

I really think they don't want any part of the H2H controversy and may look for a way to avoid it. 

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There's actually a narrative out there that Georgia is already in regardless of whether they beat Bama or not. The idea is that they deserve the benefit of the doubt because of being the two time defending champs and could lock out both an undefeated FSU and Big XII champion Texas. 

I knew this was out there but didn't want to give it any oxygen until I saw it and sure enough here's Matt Barrie and fucking Dumbo pushing it.

Edited by The Dog
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15 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

I doubt the NCAA committee will include the Tide, without the Big 12 Champ, Texas. 

This is what I keep telling myself but we've gotten the shaft before back in 2008. We had head-to-head on OU and got screwed. This system seems to ALWAYS benefit Bama, as evidenced by the number of times they've won a title under Saban despite dropping a game somewhere along the way.

 

15 minutes ago, Horndog said:

I think it's wrong too. But if the committee goes the direction of saying their charge is to figure out the best teams now - in order to justify picking Bama depite H2H - then I can see them rationalizing FSU away. 

I really think they don't want any part of the H2H controversy and may look for a way to avoid it. 

It's definitely weird. But they do it in basketball all the time, right? Star player is out for the season after helping built a #1 or #2 seed. They'll still make the tournament so it's not exactly the same, but they'll ding them in seeding, right?

I get that it feels all wrong but don't we all agree that FSU simply isn't a top four team without Travis in the fold? They will be creating a potential snoozer of a semifinal game.

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19 hours ago, UTEE97 said:

All of these scenarios show Bama above Texas if they win the SEC, as I have said many times here. In scenario 9, both Bama and UGA are above us. We really shouldn't want Bama to win the SEC. This will cause a lot of chaos/heartache for us. Since one SEC team is guaranteed, I much prefer that to be UGA. 

The person that wrote that is a dipshit that thinks there should/would be an argument between 12-1 Texas and 12-1 Washington. As is any Texas fan that is cheering for fucking Georgia on Saturday. So congrats on aligning yourself with that stupidity. 

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the GNP of the state of texas dropped a tenth of a percent this week as surlers endlessly debated infinite scenarios with infinite reasons for infinite outcomes and who to root for

+++

only some of what many wrote will matter in less than 3 hours when the committee releases it's money-shot 2nd-to-last rankings

THIS IS WHERE THEY TELEGRAPH WHAT THEY INTEND TO DO

every postulate voiced thus far can be used to argue for and against any position

and will be used to support the espn narrative, whatever it is

+++

i was shocked the AP landed jort at 5

this is very bad

+++

a final note as we count down to tonight's reveal.....

if bama beats georgia, THEY ARE BOTH IN, and if ESPN wants 2 semis matching the sec and the b1g, a narrative will be constructed to explain it to the casuals and pinks, something to the effect of....

"we couldn't separate 8 conference champions each with 1 loss, so we took the only 1-loss team that's not a conference champion (tosu)"

is that stupid an insane?  you bet it is

+++

i'm holding to my forecast for tonight's committee rankings:

1 dawg

2 meatchicken

3 washington

4 florida state

5 bama

6 texas

7 oregon

8 jort

9 louisville

 

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25 minutes ago, blutow said:

I'm honestly surprised how many in the media are saying that FSU should be out while one loss Texas/Bama/Oregon should be in.  I think it's wrong, but I want to believe...  If FSU isn't #4 tonight, they are likely done if they don't look impressive in a win on Saturday.  Besides the "better team" argument, I think the media hates the idea that we might get a "wasted" playoff game where FSU isn't competitive.  I don't know how much the committee has the same mindset, but who the hell wants FSU in at this point over a 1 loss Texas, Bama, or Oregon?

 FSU doesn't pass the eye test at all if you want the 4 best teams for the playoffs. Without their QB, they would drop way down the top 25 in terms of just how good they are now. They would get beat by a lot of top 25 teams now. They wouldn't be one of the 4 best conference winners, either. But if they win the ACC championship, they will have 0 losses. And I'm sure the committee will factor that in. And they will get the 4 spot by default. And proceed to lose in a snoozefest in the semifinal round.

But I get it from an FSU perspective. If we were in their shoes and Ewers was out and we looked bad, and we are hanging on by a thread, we would be livid if we got left out of the playoffs as an undefeated P5 champ in place for a 1 loss team. Luckily this is the last year we have to worry about real good teams getting left out.

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7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

There's actually a narrative out there that Georgia is already in regardless of whether they beat Bama or not. The idea is that they deserve the benefit of the doubt because of being the two time defending champs and could lock out both an undefeated FSU and Big XII champion Texas. 

I knew this was out there but didn't want to give it any oxygen until I saw it and sure enough here's Matt Barrie and fucking Dumbo pushing it.

Anyone using what happened in previous years as any sort of justification for ranking should be shot immediately and removed from the gene pool.

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8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

There's actually a narrative out there that Georgia is already in regardless of whether they beat Bama or not. The idea is that they deserve the benefit of the doubt because of being the two time defending champs and could lock out both an undefeated FSU and Big XII champion Texas. 

I knew this was out there but didn't want to give it any oxygen until I saw it and sure enough here's Matt Barrie and fucking Dumbo pushing it.

it's not nuts

it's a fait accompli

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8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

There's actually a narrative out there that Georgia is already in regardless of whether they beat Bama or not. The idea is that they deserve the benefit of the doubt because of being the two time defending champs and could lock out both an undefeated FSU and Big XII champion Texas. 

I knew this was out there but didn't want to give it any oxygen until I saw it and sure enough here's Matt Barrie and fucking Dumbo pushing it.

That would be some serious bullshit.

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2 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

If FSU makes it, whoever gets them might as well have a bye week.

Yep. Will not even be worth watching. If it's Georgia, they will bend them over like they did TCU. They can sleepwalk to an easy win and pretty well rested for the national championship. Won't have to exert too much effort and can probably rest their starters an entire half if they want.  

Even from a neutral fan perspective, you have to hope FSU gets bounced by Lousiville this weekend. Because they are not even close to being one of the 4 best teams right now.

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Just now, Hagbard Celine said:

gird your loins

Maybe. I just don't see how you justify putting both Bama and Georgia in and leaving Texas out in any logical scenario. They all have 1-loss and Texas/Bama are conference champs with Texas beating Bama in Tuscaloosa, then Bama beating UGA in Atlanta. Texas > Bama > Georgia = Bama + Georgia in CFP? Nah, fuck that.

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11 minutes ago, The Dog said:

There's actually a narrative out there that Georgia is already in regardless of whether they beat Bama or not. The idea is that they deserve the benefit of the doubt because of being the two time defending champs and could lock out both an undefeated FSU and Big XII champion Texas. 

I knew this was out there but didn't want to give it any oxygen until I saw it and sure enough here's Matt Barrie and fucking Dumbo pushing it.

What Texas did in Tuscaloosa is diminished cuz it was early in the year but Georgia gets the benefit of how their team performed 2 years ago with players that are no longer on the team. Therefore, we get a boost for Ellinger beating them in the Sugar Bowl. Checkmate, committee.

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6 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

Yep. Will not even be worth watching. If it's Georgia, they will bend them over like they did TCU. They can sleepwalk to an easy win and pretty well rested for the national championship. Won't have to exert too much effort and can probably rest their starters an entire half if they want.  

Even from a neutral fan perspective, you have to hope FSU gets bounced by Lousiville this weekend. Because they are not even close to being one of the 4 best teams right now.

conversely, when bama beats dawg, and bama lands at 2, fsu will jump to 3 because michigan is 1 and draws dawg at 4

PEOPLE

WE

ARE

NOT

GOING

LET'S

WIN

THIS

FUCKING

LEAGUE

AND

PRAY

NO

TULANE

 

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Just now, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

What Texas did in Tuscaloosa is diminished cuz it was early in the year but Georgia gets the benefit of how their team performed 2 years ago with players that are no longer on the team. Therefore, we get a boost for Ellinger beating them in the Sugar Bowl. Checkmate, committee.

as long as we stop there with Texas Georgia games.

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15 minutes ago, C-Man said:

That would be some serious bullshit.

The real question is if they will leave out the SEC completely if  Bama beats Georgia? Can't see it happening but that result will create the most "chaos" because you know Georgia is going to lobby they still deserve to be there.

If the committee wants to have no chaos or controversy, they would just hope for Georgia, Wash, Michigan, FSU all win. 4 undefeated conference winners. No other undefeated P5 teams. If those results happen, Oregon and Bama are done. Georgia, Mich and Wash all in without a doubt. That would leave FSU vs Texas for the 4th spot. Right now, obviously anyone with a pulse knows Texas is the better team and would win by 20+ with FSU not having their QB. FSU was able to beat Florida because they were able to get the run game going . I can't see them doing that against us. And we would make that spare backup's day a nightmare.

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4 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

What Texas did in Tuscaloosa is diminished cuz it was early in the year but Georgia gets the benefit of how their team performed 2 years ago with players that are no longer on the team. Therefore, we get a boost for Ellinger beating them in the Sugar Bowl. Checkmate, committee.

if the committee wants to it will declare Texas' "eyetest" destruction of tech trumps duck and that's why we move ahead a slot this week, with that contoversy buried behind the slotting of bama at 5, again, to telegraph what they intend to do with a bama win over georgia

BUT WE'RE STILL NOT GOING because wulaw can't lose a fucking parlay to save his life

 

 

4 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Maybe. I just don't see how you justify putting both Bama and Georgia in and leaving Texas out in any logical scenario. They all have 1-loss and Texas/Bama are conference champs with Texas beating Bama in Tuscaloosa, then Bama beating UGA in Atlanta. Texas > Bama > Georgia = Bama + Georgia in CFP? Nah, fuck that.

don't shoot the messenger

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2 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

The real question is if they will leave out the SEC completely if Georgia beats Bama? Can't see it happening but that result will create the most "chaos" because you know Georgia is going to lobby they still deserve to be there.

If the committee wants to have no chaos or controversy, they would just hope for Georgia, Wash, Michigan, FSU all win. 4 undefeated conference winners. No other undefeated P5 teams. If those results happen, Oregon and Bama are done. Georgia, Mich and Wash all in without a doubt. That would leave FSU vs Texas for the 4th spot. Right now, obviously anyone with a pulse knows Texas is the better team and would win by 20+ with FSU not having their QB. FSU was able to beat Florida because they were able to get the run game going . I can't see them doing that against us. And we would make that spare backup's day a nightmare.

Georgia beats Bama?

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5 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Maybe. I just don't see how you justify putting both Bama and Georgia in and leaving Texas out in any logical scenario. They all have 1-loss and Texas/Bama are conference champs with Texas beating Bama in Tuscaloosa, then Bama beating UGA in Atlanta. Texas > Bama > Georgia = Bama + Georgia in CFP? Nah, fuck that.

logical...... to who?

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Just now, Hagbard Celine said:

logical...... to who?

I'm not saying it won't happen. It's happened before and like I said, the playoff systems of the past 20+ years seem to have inordinately favored Oklahoma and then later, Alabama. Whatever those two need to happen usually materialize.

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7 minutes ago, cafe society said:

Floating above the hard-nosed analysis here, I'm just hoping that we beat Okie Lite, Washington beats Nike and Louisville takes out FSU.  Makes the outcome of UGA and Bama a footnote, apart from seeding.

I just wrote a long ass, I-think-well-thought-out post about various scenarios but there’s been about 30 posts since I started, so fuck it 🤣

Go Texas!

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3 minutes ago, DaysOff said:


Honestly, mind-blowing. I can't believe we're here; now I want more.

/judge smails

3 minutes ago, Vito Andolini said:

I just wrote a long ass, I-think-well-thought-out post about various scenarios but there’s been about 30 posts since I started, so fuck it 🤣

Go Texas!

there is no point trying to write anything constructive until we see these rankings in 90 minutes

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24 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

the GNP of the state of texas dropped a tenth of a percent this week as surlers endlessly debated infinite scenarios with infinite reasons for infinite outcomes and who to root for

+++

only some of what many wrote will matter in less than 3 hours when the committee releases it's money-shot 2nd-to-last rankings

THIS IS WHERE THEY TELEGRAPH WHAT THEY INTEND TO DO

every postulate voiced thus far can be used to argue for and against any position

and will be used to support the espn narrative, whatever it is

+++

i was shocked the AP landed jort at 5

this is very bad

+++

a final note as we count down to tonight's reveal.....

if bama beats georgia, THEY ARE BOTH IN, and if ESPN wants 2 semis matching the sec and the b1g, a narrative will be constructed to explain it to the casuals and pinks, something to the effect of....

"we couldn't separate 8 conference champions each with 1 loss, so we took the only 1-loss team that's not a conference champion (tosu)"

is that stupid an insane?  you bet it is

+++

i'm holding to my forecast for tonight's committee rankings:

1 dawg

2 meatchicken

3 washington

4 florida state

5 bama

6 texas

7 oregon

8 jort

9 louisville

 

Wow. You've managed to fit a lot of being really fucking wrong about things in one post. We've already seen the committee change up rankings from the penultimate to the final rankings despite all related teams winning. No reason to think they can't do it again. And I'll bet a substantial amount of money that absent 2 of FSU, Michigan, and Texas getting upset, there is zero chance of Alabama and Georgia both making it. And really, I think it may require all 3 to get upset (as Ohio State is sitting there ready to jump on a spot too). 

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Somehow I think it's all gonna come down to the question of how Texas does Saturday. If we beat the fuck out of OSU, we win the argument of a team gelling/peaking at just the right time - and if the D dominates OsU - the talk could well turn to the Texas D being the best defense in the country. That might be worth something in the minds of whoever is picking the final four. If the offense and defense produce another Ttech blowout, it will be hard to look past us.

But Sark is gonna have to dig down deep to keep his foot on the pedal. We know what our players are capable of - this team is really talented - now he needs to turn them loose. Quit fucking around. Up the deception and the play-action. No plain vanilla calls on second or third and long - that doesn't mean pass necessarily, but keep them guessing - No two yard runs up the middle.

Another 50-10 drubbing would feel pretty damn good, but it ain't gonna happen if Sark fucks around. Go get 'em Horns.

Edited by Irish Wrist Watch
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6 minutes ago, texastroubadour said:

We must win

We need Washington to win. 
we need Ga to win

we need Lou to win

iowa ain’t beating Mich

We don't want Washington or Georgia to win. Those hurt our chances. If Louisville wins, Pac-12 and SEC championships are irrelevant. We are getting in. But if FSU wins, we need Alabama and Oregon to win in order to have a chance (obviously Iowa isn't beating Michigan). 

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My view of we win, what other single game outcome matters most, ranked in order of helping us:

FSU loses

Michigan loses

Ga loses

Wash loses

 

We need a poll favorite to lose. FSU or Mich we're in. Ga very likely were in (our game and theirs - any blowout/closeness could matter).  Wash loses...we still have a chance, but think unlikely based on committee views going into this weekend.

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9 minutes ago, texastroubadour said:

iowa ain’t beating Mich

 

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

(obviously Iowa isn't beating Michigan). 

It would be totally on brand for Iowa to win an ugly game against Michigan. 

Just for fun I used the ESPN simulator with Texas, Oregon, Louisville, Iowa, and Bama winning:

image.thumb.png.25ad2a2d877e82245f46f15542e53528.png

 

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1 hour ago, Horndog said:

Counterpoint to the "Texas was lucky they got Bama early" argument:

For years we have heard about what a meat grinder the SEC schedule is, how every game is a war, that they need to play a powder puff late in the season to recover from the rigors of the 8- game gauntlet, yada yada.

It's lucky for Bama that they played us early in the year while they were still fresh and before all the SEC games took their toll. 

Bama need a hail mary like miracle to beat a team that got humiliated a week before by aggy....   New Mexico State version.

I agree the meatgrinder thing is tired and old.   A few years ago it might have been true when Florida, LSU, Bama and UGA were always top four and one of the mid tiers like Auburn, MSU and Ole Miss would have a good team and make it interesting.   But it's almost always been about where the SEC teams were placed in the media polls and the fact they'd get eight or nine teams in the pre season polls and let them fight it out, it took on the illusion of a meatgrinder.   Then you get them in bowl game and they get exposed like we did UGA in 2018 Sugar Bowl...   Oh they didn't want to be there was the excuse, but regardless based on the conference hype they should've crushed us.

It's the same damn thing with the Big 10 with Michigan and Ohio State.   And Norte Dame.

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1 hour ago, C-Man said:

This is what I keep telling myself but we've gotten the shaft before back in 2008. We had head-to-head on OU and got screwed. This system seems to ALWAYS benefit Bama, as evidenced by the number of times they've won a title under Saban despite dropping a game somewhere along the way.

Please stop reference a Big 12 divisional tiebreaker as some sort of “Texas will get screwed” narrative for a CFP bid. They’re not even remotely the same. 

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48 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

What do you mean? We are 4-1 against them all time.

Yeah, that's great against Georgia, but how has Texas done against the other elite SEC team?  Oh, that's right, we're 8-2-1 against Bama. 

Ironically, Vandy is the only SEC team that has a good record against Texas.  I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we'll start chipping into that next year.   

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Please stop reference a Big 12 divisional tiebreaker as some sort of “Texas will get screwed” narrative for a CFP bid. They’re not even remotely the same. 

Just a general uneasiness that no matter the system, Texas can get fucked despite having a head-to-head advantage. This scenario when you're comparing 1-loss Texas, Bama and Georgia is painfully obvious to anyone with a functioning brain (1. Texas, 2. Bama, 3. Georgia) and the fact that it is even debatable makes my head fucking hurt.

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19 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

My view of we win, what other single game outcome matters most, ranked in order of helping us:

FSU loses

Michigan loses

Ga loses

Wash loses

 

We need a poll favorite to lose. FSU or Mich we're in. Ga very likely were in (our game and theirs - any blowout/closeness could matter).  Wash loses...we still have a chance, but think unlikely based on committee views going into this weekend.

Washington losing is more important than Georgia losing. We wouldn't go over 13-0 UW but could feasibly go over 12-1 UO even if Bama loses. 

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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