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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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1 minute ago, HookEm said:

Revised using the odds Bolverk's posted... 

  • Texas wins (88%) plus
  • FSU loses (25.6%) - 100% we are in  (.225)
  • Michigan loses (10%) - 100% we are in  (0.088)
  • Bama wins (47.9%) - 50% chance we are in  (0.211)
  • Oregon wins (75.8%) - 5% chance we are in (0.033)

The odds that at least ONE of the above of the above events happens is ~46%.  

I feel like there's a greater chance than 25% that FSU loses that game. 

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4 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I'm not worried about the Oregon and Washington game. The loser won't be in the playoffs over Texas. Worrying about Oregon seems nonsensical to me. 

1) Pac 12 team

2) SEC team

3) Michigan

4) FSU or Texas

But I will say I think there's also a chance Texas gets in with a FSU win if Bama beats Georgia. 

1) Pac 12 team

2) Texas

3) Michigan 

4) FSU

 

 

 

I meant do the rankings for why Oregon is ahead of Texas using the same math as the post I quoted 

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I think these are the results we want this weekend (not including Texas winning of course).

1) FSU L

2) Oregon L but I don't think this matters either way. The Pac 12 is getting a team in and the loser will be out. 

3) Michigan L

4) Georgia L. This  is the tough one. I still think we're getting in over Bama due to H2H so I think Bama winning this is in our best interest. I believe we get in over Bama and Georgia if Georgia loses. 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
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Can anyone explain to me why Oregon is considered to be a better team than UW? Is there an objective basis for that, or is it just that the Bo Nix has a high completion rate? It seems to me that the ascent of Oregon is largely the result of their beat down of an overhyped Colorado team. 

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1 minute ago, Hondo said:

This is a great example of "choose your words carefully; you may have to eat them later."  I think the better teams will win this weekend, but there's still potential for a lot of people making "zero chance, full stop" predictions and calling people stupid to have egg on their faces.

You started this post by agreeing with someone who, wrongly, is claiming the chance of something happening is zero. 

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3 minutes ago, Horndog said:

Can anyone explain to me why Oregon is considered to be a better team than UW? Is there an objective basis for that, or is it just that the Bo Nix has a high completion rate? It seems to me that the ascent of Oregon is largely the result of their beat down of an overhyped Colorado team. 

Washington has struggled for like 6 weeks straight. They're squeaking by with wins. 

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8 minutes ago, immamac said:

I’ll bet the board on it. 

I’ll take the bet and put up tree fiddy. If I win I’ll just give it back because I don’t want to run this place. 
 

Edit: I agree with you that we don’t pass Oregon 

Edited by TexasEd
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9 minutes ago, Hondo said:

Agreed, but you're going to get all kinds of pushback on this one.

 

My opinion:  

Oregon is already ahead of Texas.

Oregon beats #3 Washington to win their conference.

Texas beats #18 Oklahoma State to win theirs.

Thinking this results in Texas going in ahead of Oregon is absurd.

 

There's a ton of pretzel logic, wish casting, and transitive relation application in this thread.  It's rather amusing to see it prefaced with "you're a fucking idiot" and then closed out with "period/full stop." 

This is a great example of "choose your words carefully; you may have to eat them later."  I think the better teams will win this weekend, but there's still potential for a lot of people making "zero chance, full stop" predictions and calling people stupid to have egg on their faces.

 

image.gif.d5db7725bf78ca4cb0553433dddb8ebe.gif

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39 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I agree if Georgia wins.  There is no chance we get in over Oregon if it is a straight up decision.

But if Bama wins, I think that changes the calculation.  If we all win, they will have to decide whether to leave out the SEC, leave us out who beat Bama, or leave out the PAC 12. I think in that case Oregon COULD lose out. 

In that scenario, I put the odds of losing out at:

  • Bama - 40% 
  • Texas - 35%
  • Oregon - 25%

Bama might jump us, but I don't think it is a certainty at all.

There's no way the committee is jumping us and Bama both up 4 spots. Last nights rankings should have been proof enough of just how little the committee thinks of us & our cute little win in lil ole Tuscaloosa. We should really stop playing those games unless the CFP committee is going to reward them accordingly. 

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2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

So I see this thread hasn't calmed down at all.  

Remember that time when we had thousands of posts discussing/debating/criticizing the Big 12 tiebreaker rules, only to have it come down to a simple result in the end? I'm hoping for a repeat.

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1 minute ago, Red Five said:

You started this post by agreeing with someone who, wrongly, is claiming the chance of something happening is zero. 

Don't sharpshoot.  You might look special to the people in the middle of the distribution, but not anyone else.

Of course there's a "non-zero" chance, mathematically speaking.  There's a non-zero chance I'll win the lottery tonight if I buy a single ticket.  Is there an appreciable difference between 0 tickets and 1 ticket, other than going from zero to non-zero?  Am I going to win the lottery?

I get this is an opportunity to look smart and nerd out, but in practical terms, it's pretty easy to see how it's very likely to play out.  But hey, if ya'll want to get dorky about it, have at it.  But it would be nice to see all the people trying to flex their brains actually do the math and show their work (I suspect few actually can).  

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11 minutes ago, Red Five said:

That you don't know what a 0.0% chance means? I wouldn't bet on Oklahoma St winning this weekend but if someone said they have a 0.0% chance of winning I would mock them.

There is literally no chance whatsoever of Texas going over Oregon who wins P12 in the CFP rankings under any circumstance that is possible. 

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16 minutes ago, Horndog said:

Can anyone explain to me why Oregon is considered to be a better team than UW? Is there an objective basis for that, or is it just that the Bo Nix has a high completion rate? It seems to me that the ascent of Oregon is largely the result of their beat down of an overhyped Colorado team. 

i only have the FEI numbers but Oregon has a significantly better defense (almost twice as many points per possession better - 0.61 / #31 for Washington vs 1.09 / #11 for Oregon) and an offense that's almost a point per possession better (1.21 / #7 for Washington vs 2.26 / #2 for Oregon)

those are opponent adjusted

F+ which is FEI and SP+ mushed together has Oregon with the #1 offense (vs #6 for Washington) and the #13 defense (vs #11 for Washington)

you can dig into the nitty gritty around the underlying stats FEI uses, but in basically every metric - adjusted and unadjusted - Oregon is better.

https://www.bcftoys.com/2023-fei/

ofei: https://www.bcftoys.com/2023-ofei

dfei: https://www.bcftoys.com/2023-dfei

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35 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I don't agree at all. 

Rodemaker was 12/25 for 134 yards last weekend against Florida and Louisville has a substantially better defense. I really don't understand why there are people that think this is a lock for FSU.

I actually think Louisville is the favorite in this game. 

He's also recovering from a concussion whether they admit it or not. 

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In an absolute chaos scenario where everyone loses but Oregon and Texas, Oregon would still be ranked 1 and Texas would still be ranked 2. 

there is no mathematical possibility where Oregon is in the CFP that they are not the higher seed than Texas. Which includes them at #4. Texas will not be #3 or #2 over a #4 Oregon. There is no way to make it work. You are all talking about insane shit and wishcasting - a higher ranked team beating a top 4 team to get into the CFP is not getting left out under any circumstance to make room for Texas. This is not in the realm of possible including if Bo nix dies on the field. 

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

Guys stop it. The only actual path that isn’t chaos and some crazy bullshit is FSU losing or Texas leapfrogging and bumping FSU out. That’s it. Those are the only 2 non chaos conspiracy theory ways in. 

There is 5 power conferences. All of the champions for them can’t be in, but 4 of them will absolutely be in this one barring complete chaos on Friday/saturday. 

 

200.gif

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26 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Now do 1 loss Oregon 

 

you’re applying math and logic where the committee has shown that it’s a popularity contest or an eye test 

This. The committee has guidelines that they ignore. What's worse is they change the criteria every week to get the result they want.

I'd compare it to how FIFA seeds World Cups - they historically change the criteria every cycle. Why? So they can choose who they want seeded and find a way to get that result.

That's what is happening here.

15 minutes ago, Horndog said:

Can anyone explain to me why Oregon is considered to be a better team than UW? Is there an objective basis for that, or is it just that the Bo Nix has a high completion rate? It seems to me that the ascent of Oregon is largely the result of their beat down of an overhyped Colorado team. 

Was going to answer this:

14 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Washington has struggled for like 6 weeks straight. They're squeaking by with wins. 

Washington and Oregon have several common opponents where Oregon has been more dominant. Here's a few examples:

Arizona State - Washington by 8 at home; Oregon by 33 on the road

Stanford - Washington by 9 on the road; Oregon by 36 on the road

Utah - Washington by 7 at home; Oregon by 29 on the road

Oregon St - Washington by 2 on the road; Oregon by 24 at home

It's kind of silly to compare scores for single games but when you have this many occurrences you can see why everyone thinks Oregon is better. 

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this is the single best dashboard/tool i've seen for CFP probabilities

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/sam.epley/viz/WhichCollegeFootballProgramshavethebestchancestomaketheCollegeFootballPlayoff_17012629871500/CFPRankingsRatings

it has an absolute ton of ways to look at the different teams

Texas:

image.png.a5c044bee7c1ee604349aeb931cda272.png

Oregon:

image.png.db16a271d67bbbd2cf8dcc011b32f040.png

their results if UGA/Michigan/FSU/Oregon win:

image.thumb.png.fa6143f603858503423be2d018374273.png

if Alabama wins:

image.thumb.png.d1b95d27753e7191285798d8d0625d92.png

if UGA/Michigan/FSU/Texas and Washington win:

image.thumb.png.dda14699387dce5f75bc47e2085a7151.png

 

 

image.png

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8 minutes ago, immamac said:

There is literally no chance whatsoever of Texas going over Oregon who wins P12 in the CFP rankings under any circumstance that is possible. 

Great. I'll take your bet. If Texas, Alabama, Oregon, FSU, and Michigan win, you give me the board if Alabama and Texas advance.

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Just now, The Dog said:

This. The committee has guidelines that they ignore. What's worse is they change the criteria every week to get the result they want.

I'd compare it to how FIFA seeds World Cups - they historically change the criteria every cycle. Why? So they can choose who they want seeded and find a way to get that result.

That's what is happening here.

Was going to answer this:

Washington and Oregon have several common opponents where Oregon has been more dominant. Here's a few examples:

Arizona State - Washington by 8 at home; Oregon by 33 on the road

Stanford - Washington by 9 on the road; Oregon by 36 on the road

Utah - Washington by 7 at home; Oregon by 29 on the road

Oregon St - Washington by 2 on the road; Oregon by 24 at home

It's kind of silly to compare scores for single games but when you have this many occurrences you can see why everyone thinks Oregon is better. 

Styles make fights. Washington’s style is to play close. Oregons is to try for the blowout and if it doesn’t happen you get the Washington game. People forget they already played. Oregon isn’t a magically better team than earlier in the season and Washington is certainly not worse. 

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Has Finebaum been pressed or opined specifically on 12-1 Texas vs. 12-1 Alabama for the 4th spot?  I feel like he's trying to avoid the question by focusing in on FSU when that argument is actually irrelevant (they are above both if they win and below both if all have 1 loss).

He's a moron but moves public sentiment.

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6 minutes ago, immamac said:

In an absolute chaos scenario where everyone loses but Oregon and Texas, Oregon would still be ranked 1 and Texas would still be ranked 2. 

there is no mathematical possibility where Oregon is in the CFP that they are not the higher seed than Texas. Which includes them at #4. Texas will not be #3 or #2 over a #4 Oregon. There is no way to make it work. You are all talking about insane shit and wishcasting - a higher ranked team beating a top 4 team to get into the CFP is not getting left out under any circumstance to make room for Texas. This is not in the realm of possible including if Bo nix dies on the field. 

Did you forget they dropped an undefeated FSU below UO for a week because Jordan Travis was injured?

This committee is nothing if not inconsistent. UT jumping UO is possible - would take some weird shit, but it's not "literally no chance". 

Edited by dieucla98
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1 minute ago, dieucla98 said:

Did you forget they dropped an undefeated FSU below UO for a week because Jordan Travis was injured?

This committee is nothing if not inconsistent. UT jumping UO is possible - would take some weird shit, but it's not "literally no chance". 

There is actually no chance. 

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2 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Has Finebaum been pressed or opined specifically on 12-1 Texas vs. 12-1 Alabama for the 4th spot?  I feel like he's trying to avoid the question by focusing in on FSU when that argument is actually irrelevant (they are above both if they win and below both if all have 1 loss).

He's a moron but moves public sentiment.

If I recall he said Texas deserves because h2h yesterday on the IT live. He also think Texas should get in over FSU even if we both win.

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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I have stated why there is no chance. Someone show me how Texas jumps Oregon in the CFP rankings even with both making the playoff. 
 

picking Oregon is easy if it’s Oregon bama Michigan as 1,2,3 seeds 4th will be fsu who can be dropped in favor of Texas. There is no world where Oregon is left out and Texas is put in at #4. The time has passed for this scenario to come true. People saying there’s a chance of non 0 are relying on the rule of they can just pick teams out of thin air to go to the CFP if they wanted.  
 

OU has the same chance as Texas to get into the CFP with a 4th seeded Oregon. How’s that? It’s not non 0, but it’s only possible because it’s not impossible. 

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7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Great. I'll take your bet. If Texas, Alabama, Oregon, FSU, and Michigan win, you give me the board if Alabama and Texas advance.

i mean, that's the 2nd most likely scenario out there and will absolutely not happen assuming health of everyone else across the board.

Texas could win by 500 points and they wouldn't jump Oregon that is currently ranked ahead of them and beat the CFP's #3 Washington team.

image.thumb.png.450b411d52e386ca7d64969ebd64e820.png

the most likely scenario is Texas/Oregon/FSU/Michigan/Georgia

image.thumb.png.2f66ea18812bdff42291e4cb6bcdde05.png

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5 minutes ago, immamac said:

I have stated why there is no chance. Someone show me how Texas jumps Oregon in the CFP rankings even with both making the playoff. 
 

picking Oregon is easy if it’s Oregon bama Michigan as 1,2,3 seeds 4th will be fsu who can be dropped in favor of Texas. There is no world where Oregon is left out and Texas is put in at #4. The time has passed for this scenario to come true. People saying there’s a chance of non 0 are relying on the rule of they can just pick teams out of thin air to go to the CFP if they wanted.  
 

OU has the same chance as Texas to get into the CFP with a 4th seeded Oregon. How’s that? It’s not non 0, but it’s only possible because it’s not impossible. 

The only chance that Texas jumps Oregon is in the 2 spots for 3 teams scenario.. Bama wins, Texas, Michigan Wins, and FSU wins. Now the committee is screwed. Leave out the SEC champ? Put Bama in, but ignore Head to Head and leave Texas out? I think they put Texas and Bama in over Oregon in that scenario, but that is a guess. 

Edited by Codaxx
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For those that want to say but what about 1 loss Oregon Alabama and Texas!!! 
 

texas didn’t beat #1 back to back champion Georgia. There is no fucking world where I would even pick the longhorns to go over Alabama in that scenario. Stop it. 
 

Texas plays #18 OK State. And Lost to #14 Oklahoma or something. 

Alabama plays #1 and lost to #7 

Oregon Lost to #3 and can revenge it. 

this isn’t fucking hard stop being conspiracy theorists. We aren’t playing undefeated #2 Oklahoma in a revenge game. 

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8 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I saw Louisville moneyline is +115.. There is some vig in that, so call it 45% chance to win the game. 

the prediction tracker line (not sure who they use) has it dropping from 6.5 when it opened to 2.5 as the updated line. midweek has yet to come out/hasn't been added yet

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1 minute ago, immamac said:

There is no fucking world where I would even pick the longhorns to go over Alabama in that scenario. Stop it.

Oh so there is a zero percent chance Texas goes over Oregon, because you also wouldn't pick us over Bama. Think I'm seeing the problem now.

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6 minutes ago, immamac said:

For those that want to say but what about 1 loss Oregon Alabama and Texas!!! 
 

texas didn’t beat #1 back to back champion Georgia. There is no fucking world where I would even pick the longhorns to go over Alabama in that scenario. Stop it. 
 

Texas plays #18 OK State. And Lost to #14 Oklahoma or something. 

Alabama plays #1 and lost to #7 

Oregon Lost to #3 and can revenge it. 

this isn’t fucking hard stop being conspiracy theorists. We aren’t playing undefeated #2 Oklahoma in a revenge game. 

And yet Texas beat that Bama team head to head, in their own house. That doesn't mean anything? 

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40 minutes ago, hook me said:

There's no way the committee is jumping us and Bama both up 4 spots. Last nights rankings should have been proof enough of just how little the committee thinks of us & our cute little win in lil ole Tuscaloosa. We should really stop playing those games unless the CFP committee is going to reward them accordingly. 

They think enough of it to have us in front of Bama for the whole year and the last spot could come down to a debate between us and Bama. At least they appear to be respecting the head to head result. 

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4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

So you're a moron. All you had to say. 

 

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Oh so there is a zero percent chance Texas goes over Oregon, because you also wouldn't pick us over Bama. Think I'm seeing the problem now.

Is this a fucking joke? You think they take Texas over bama knocking off #1 Georgia in the SECCG? What world do you live in where you think beating the #1 ranked team in the country doesn’t get you into the playoffs? You think they intentionally didn’t put Michigan in that top spot literally for this discussion point? 

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