Game Week Thread Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

[sushihorn 3215]

Penix is a guy that can run for some yards if you don’t account for him but not many. The last couple of games, Penix has made several business decisions. I’ve seen him doing a full tuck to avoid contact after throwing a pass without any follow through. He got called for intentional grounding throwing to empty space when a rusher came free off the edge. Those were in the last 2 regular season games. I have to wonder if he will make the designed run or check out of it if called. 

[nbmishoid 904]

Good point.   Once money gets in the picture, it may be hard to get it out.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

7 minutes ago, nbmishoid said:

Good point.   Once money gets in the picture, it may be hard to get it out.

I don’t know that it was money. He seems to be sort of banged up at the end of the year. I’d guess it was that. 

[El Squared 1792]

2 hours ago, alphahydro said:

UW is 2nd in the country in avoiding sacks. 

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/qb-sacked-pct

It's very possible that they are going to have issues with their center bc he hasn't had to block anyone like our interior D line all season, but UW are good at avoiding sacks and a lot of that is (a) they are good at shuffling players presnap to suss out your call and (b) Penix is a 19th year senior and is good at getting rid of the ball when you blitz him. 

But yeah if we are racing past their interior line all game, it's going to be a long night for Penix.  That would be great, but I have no reason to believe we are going to get more sacks against the 2nd best team at avoiding sacks than we have the rest of the season. 

Having said that, I think later in the game, the texas depth on DL might be an issue for UW.   I hope PK has a layered plan that allows for more aggression/press later in the game. 

Pressures will be more interesting to watch, imo.

idk if there is a good set of stats on pressures allowed.

Penix will definitely panic and toss a couple errant throws per game if you can disguise your coverage (make him make a second read post-snap), assuming you are getting decent pressure.   You do need to get good pressure + disguise because the UW offense presents problems all over the field and Penix is good at checking down. 

I assume the UW staff is looking at moving the pocket to minimize pressure and the Texas staff is looking at which way they want to try to move him. 

More than one way to skin the cat

Also, if you are curious to watch the games (on youtube) Arizona and Utah both played UW reasonably well this season - Utah brought a lot more pressure.  AZ mostly brought 3/4 pass rushers.   Both can work.  

The coaching staffs see the same things we do

I think it's going to be a huge chessmatch.  I suspect both their OC and our DC are going to try to protect their relative weaknesses (interior OL and safeties).  And UW is going to get their 25-35 unless one of the playcallers makes a big mistake in the chessmatch.   UW has faced good defenses and we have faced good offenses.  The more interesting matchup imo is Texas offense vs UW defense. 

 

Summary: UW holds, A LOT. 

[ztejas 42744]

2 hours ago, Codaxx said:

I would say he is kind of like Quinn. He can hurt you, if you get undisciplined. He prefers to move to throw the ball. His last option is to run to scramble. Doesn’t mean that Washington might not run a couple QB draws, like Texas did last year in the bowl 

I think Quinn is easily a better runner than this cat. We don't like him running because we don't want him getting hurt - but in a playoff game he may be more aggressive. 

[BurntOrange&White 38710]

With Quinn having these extra weeks to heal up more I think we'll see him go for 1st downs on 3rd and shorts and etc more often similar to how he was before his injury during the Houston game. 

[thunderlounge 7581]

Maybe, but I also don’t believe he will jeopardize himself with the potential of playing a week later. 

[ztejas 42744]

9 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

Maybe, but I also don’t believe he will jeopardize himself with the potential of playing a week later. 

I seriously hope that isn't the attitude our team comes out with on Monday.

[conVINCEd 21468]

2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I seriously hope that isn't the attitude our team comes out with on Monday.

I would personally appreciate it if Quinn doesn’t try to truck a LB unless it’s the 4th quarter and the game is on the line.

[ztejas 42744]

10 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

I would personally appreciate it if Quinn doesn’t try to truck a LB unless it’s the 4th quarter and the game is on the line.

I'm not sure where you got "truck a linebacker" from but okay. 

I hope our team doesn't come out looking ahead to the national championship game. The best way to be fresh for a 2nd game is to kick the shit out of your semis opponent. 

[Dahobbs 17088]

1 minute ago, ztejas said:

I'm not sure where you got "truck a linebacker" from but okay. 

Isn't that how he got himself hurt earlier?

[Funk Doctor Spock 11608]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Isn't that how he got himself hurt earlier?

Yes. He ran shoulder first into a LB against Houston, which is why MM had to come in. Let's hope Quinn doesn't pull a stunt like that again 

[thunderlounge 7581]

34 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I seriously hope that isn't the attitude our team comes out with on Monday.

I didn’t mean focused ahead, I meant more trying to be superman when it’s not needed. More common sense than dialing it back and not playing it hard. Playing smart.

[ztejas 42744]

12 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

I didn’t mean focused ahead, I meant more trying to be superman when it’s not needed. More common sense than dialing it back and not playing it hard. Playing smart.

I think Quinn has been overly cautious since how he was running to start the season. I don't think anyone is wanting him to do dumb shit like search for contact against bigger defenders. 

[alphahydro 332]

1 hour ago, El Squared said:

Summary: UW holds, A LOT. 

at least through week 10 (only stats I'm aware of)

Penix (23.9%) faced the same percentage of pressures as Ewers (23.2%)

Penix just got sacked 1.8% of the time; Ewers 6.7%.   Penix is just better at getting rid of the ball, imo.  (which is to be expected, given his seniority). 

https://www.cfb-graphs.com/qb_table

[thunderlounge 7581]

ESPN is doing a lot of alternate broadcasts for their bowl games, including the Sugar Bowl. One such broadcast is:

CFP Semifinal: Texas vs. Washington (Texas radio) 7:45pm(CST)
LHN / Video: ESPN / espn3

 

[ztejas 42744]

2 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

ESPN is doing a lot of alternate broadcasts for their bowl games, including the Sugar Bowl. One such broadcast is:

CFP Semifinal: Texas vs. Washington (Texas radio) 7:45pm(CST)
LHN / Video: ESPN / espn3

 

Fuck. Yes. 

[sith_horn 2320]

7 minutes ago, alphahydro said:

at least through week 10 (only stats I'm aware of)

Penix (23.9%) faced the same percentage of pressures as Ewers (23.2%)

Penix just got sacked 1.8% of the time; Ewers 6.7%.   Penix is just better at getting rid of the ball, imo.  (which is to be expected, given his seniority). 

https://www.cfb-graphs.com/qb_table

Ewers tends to hold the ball too long and also to flee the pocket prematurely, resulting in more sacks. He has poor pocket presence. He's risk averse to throwing interceptions, which is a good thing, but often waits too long to throw the ball as a result.

[BurntEyes 5614]

Penix is definitely better under pressure that Quinn has been this year. I'd honestly say Quinn's response under pressure and recent (post Houston) contact concerns are really his weak point. That and his longer ball. 

[YGIFS 19443]

NSIAP:  Team sendoff to airport tomorrow from DKR to MLK (along Trinity).  10:30a, festivities begin with Bevo, Cheer/Pom, loading of busses, and schwag.  They push off for the planes at 11:30a.  

Gonna try and take the kids, weather should be nice in the sun.  

[ALexusTexus7 114]

Prediction:

[ousux 5566]

Feels like we've had a mini off season, but..

Only 4 days until Longhorn football again boys and girls. And this time it's not a meaningless bowl that's fun for the guys who didn't play much during the season. All hands on deck, full sail

[KeysPhoneWallet 807]

So excited for the game, I feel like we’re playing with house money now, and, frankly, that we are the most complete team in this thing.

Specifically vs Washington, I wonder if we’ll play 2 safeties over to take out the deep ball. But make not mistake, Washington’s is going to try to run the ball against us, and our reputation past success won’t make the plays though, we’ll have to and I think that part of the game is being assumed too easily by analysts. I know, I know, we are the best against the run, we have badass DTs, we stopped Ollie whatshisname, and that’s all true, but we’ll have to stay humble and stop this Washington oline/rb as well, and they are the best we’ve faced all year, at least I hope the team is planning for it with that mindset.

Where we really have the advantage is our offense vs their defense. We ended the year on fire with an elite passing attack that was carving fools up. Hope that continues but these long breaks cause a discontinuity that is hard to account for.

The team will be healthy and prepared, but will they have their battle-forged edge? Will they be smelling the kill like they have been the last two outings? That’s is impossible to know until game day.

Also, I see Apple News+ just added “the athletic,” should I give a fuck about that?? rush triangle

[Jiggy-Z 3419]

12 minutes ago, ousux said:

Feels like we've had a mini off season, but..

Only 4 days until Longhorn football again boys and girls. And this time it's not a meaningless bowl that's fun for the guys who didn't play much during the season. All hands on deck, full sail
 

This season has been fun.  I have reveled in pre and post game analysis since there is actually something to analyze unlike on years past where it was just too much of a cluster or error filled football product to bother.

This was especially true for later Mac, Charlie, and Herman.  Once Sark got here, there was breakdown worth having even in losing efforts.

[thunderlounge 7581]

7 minutes ago, KeysPhoneWallet said:

The team will be healthy and prepared, but will they have their battle-forged edge? Will they be smelling the kill like they have been the last two outings? That’s is impossible to know until game day.

This is the big unknown. All we can look to for information are the  other big games from this year. Alabama, tech, and okie lite we came to play. We also came to play at the fair, but just went south. Rivalry like that, it happens. That’s why they’re rivalries.

I guess you look at those, know with this one the stakes are even higher, then have to trust that the people cashing the big checks are doing their job.

I think we have our shit together on that front, but this doesn’t look to be a cakewalk. 

[DanTheHorn 4849]

 

I hate that I agree with many things these guys say about our matchup. They do fail to say Sark has said this team can beat you in many ways.

 

[troph 23963]

2 hours ago, thunderlounge said:

ESPN is doing a lot of alternate broadcasts for their bowl games, including the Sugar Bowl. One such broadcast is:

CFP Semifinal: Texas vs. Washington (Texas radio) 7:45pm(CST)
LHN / Video: ESPN / espn3

 

 

2 hours ago, ztejas said:

Fuck. Yes. 

What does this mean? ESPN 3 and I get to watch and listen to Craig?

[Hank_Hill 17563]

1 hour ago, ousux said:

Feels like we've had a mini off season, but..

Only 4 days until Longhorn football again boys and girls. And this time it's not a meaningless bowl that's fun for the guys who didn't play much during the season. All hands on deck, full sail
 

The game is on Monday just fyi

[ousux 5566]

The game is on Monday just fyi

Ahh true. In my defense I'm off work until the 3rd of the new year and trying to maintain a constant BAC until then.

[Bevo 13417]

I highly recommend that you guys avoid watching "Boys in the Boat" or at least wait until after we play UW.

[DanTheHorn 4849]

SIAP

 

Talks about the lines and his guys trying to figure each other out.

[CoachEmUp64 78]

5 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

With Quinn having these extra weeks to heal up more I think we'll see him go for 1st downs on 3rd and shorts and etc more often similar to how he was before his injury during the Houston game. 

As an ex coach- I’m going to try and post some more and give any insight I can.

Quinn for sure has a “lock” call on, on running plays. Meaning his reads aren’t reads anymore, it’s a give all the way. Unless it’s walk in for a touchdown or easy to get the yards for a first. Seems to me like our running plays have definitely shifted to more gap schemes. Pulling a OL or two. Like Power, Counter, etc. which you can still incorporate a read off of, and makes things really tough to defend. 
 

Hoping this break has healed him up and gave the coaches confidence to let him pull it more on designed reads. Or throw a QB run in every now and then to keep the defense honest. 

[CoachEmUp64 78]

4 hours ago, sith_horn said:

Ewers tends to hold the ball too long and also to flee the pocket prematurely, resulting in more sacks. He has poor pocket presence. He's risk averse to throwing interceptions, which is a good thing, but often waits too long to throw the ball as a result.

I think you’re spot on. I’ll also add that QB’s are being told to not run to avoid injury. There’s data out there that suggests/proves QB’s are less likely to be injured on a hit or sack in the pocket, and more likely to be injured on an open field tackle ie. scramble. Interesting to think about and discuss. 

I do know the coaches are being overly cautious with Quinn. I think they aren’t holding anything back this week and we’ll see a much more mobile QB when coverage is tight or the pocket collapses. 

[Grande Mart 502]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

I highly recommend that you guys avoid watching "Boys in the Boat" or at least wait until after we play UW.

Good thing we aren’t going back in time and trying to beat them in rowing in the 1930’s

[NeverMarryAStripper 21765]

Our women’s crew would kick their ass

[Hank_Hill 17563]

Try rowing against T’vondre Sweat you fucking pussies

[BRLA 106]

PSA -

The Longhorn Band will be conducting a rehearsal in the Baton Rouge area on 12/30 from 4:00 pm - 6:00 pm at Dutchtown High School in Prairieville on their way to the Sugar Bowl.

The high school football stadium is just a couple of minutes south of I-10 on the east side of Baton Rouge.  Take the LA HWY 73 exit off of I-10, veer right on to HWY 73 and the HS is on your right maybe 1/2 mile down the road.

[thunderlounge 7581]

9 hours ago, troph said:

 

What does this mean? ESPN 3 and I get to watch and listen to Craig?

That’s exactly what it means.

[troph 23963]

Just now, thunderlounge said:

That’s exactly what it means.

[Codaxx 5405]

13 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Isn't that how he got himself hurt earlier?

No.. He was injured on a sack (missed block by Sanders). 

[Zeus 5862]

Prices dropping quite a bit I think... Tickpick includes fees and taxes here. 

 

[Pam Cummings 9409]

ESPN will have a channel with Craig Way's call. Gonna have that fucker pumped up.

 

Edit- i'm a stupid motherfucker that should read the thread first.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Pam Cummings

[EastTexan 662]

1 hour ago, Zeus said:

Prices dropping quite a bit I think... Tickpick includes fees and taxes here. 

 

aggy/tickets gettin cheeper. game aint impotent

[Zeus 5862]

2 minutes ago, EastTexan said:

aggy/tickets gettin cheeper. game aint impotent

there's actually dumbfuck FSU people saying it's because they should've been in instead of Texas now nobody cares

When in reality it's that the prices were extremely inflated due to the reselling market. 

I don't know how to stop it but it's a real problem people trying to buy bunches of tickets and resale them for more. It's so dumb.

[Longboard Horn 39797]

 

[Nivek 16643]

11 minutes ago, Zeus said:

there's actually dumbfuck FSU people saying it's because they should've been in instead of Texas now nobody cares

When in reality it's that the prices were extremely inflated due to the reselling market. 

I don't know how to stop it but it's a real problem people trying to buy bunches of tickets and resale them for more. It's so dumb.

easy, make them non-transferrable (and tied to a name) and non-refundable.   

[Zeus 5862]

9 minutes ago, Nivek said:

easy, make them non-transferrable (and tied to a name) and non-refundable.   

Not that easy, what about real normal transfers of tickets? Not "companies" buying a lot but me just selling my two tickets for near the same price I bought them?

What are you going to do at the gate? Check every persons ID?

[salonghorn 204]

Any idea about how many Texas fans will be at the game compared to Washington fans?

Edited December 27, 2023 by salonghorn

[BurntOrange&White 38710]

2 minutes ago, salonghorn said:

Any idea about how many Texas fans will be at the game compared to Washington fans?

yes

[salonghorn 204]

3 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

yes

That was about what I was estimating